Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1377

(+) Yeah! (+)

Big_Bob posted...

These days that's bad design, back then it was common practice.

I don't really agree that you can label something bad design so easily. A lot of people have fondness for things like that. Discovering what things do on your own is fun for some people.

This is what I mean by subjectivity passing as objectivity. Or do we just decide that by majority rules? If most people prefer something, is it even objectively better?

Passwords are a good example. They are obviously not better than most other methods of saving. They don't even work for games that are too complex, which already was happening in the 80s.

But for the games it works fine in, they can be kinda cool. There are unique things you can do with a password system that other ways just can't.

pjbasis posted...

There are unique things you can do with a password system that other ways just can't.

It's crazy to think that "Justin Bailey" was likely a complete fluke.

Impressed with Astro Bot. Didn't think GameFAQs would take to it so well.

pjbasis posted...

This is what I mean by subjectivity passing as objectivity. Or do we just decide that by majority rules? If most people prefer something, is it even objectively better?

I mean most people just aren't going to append every post with "by the way, this is my subjective opinion and is not an objective empirical standard". We're an informal social forum, not academia.

Except for the people who use the word "objectively" to try to add weight to their subjective opinions...!

And I'll take predictable winners over rally-fueled wins any day.

Leonhart4 posted...

Except for the people who use the word "objectively" to try to add weight to their subjective opinions...!

pj was the first person to say objective!

KamikazePotato posted...

Impressed with Astro Bot. Didn't think GameFAQs would take to it so well.

Being a platformer together with two JRPGs probably helps.

Definitely, but a week ago I would've predicted this poll to be like...Rebirth 41%, Metaphor 34%, Astro Bot 25%.

Astro Bot is very well regarded, considered a Nintendo-like platformer, in a poll with 2 RPGs, and just recently won GotY at The Game Awards. I'm not surprised at all it's doing well.

1v1 GotY poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9793-

Astro Bot keeping it close.

TeamRocketElite posted...

Astro Bot keeping it close.

Probably through vote stuffing, though. The New Jersey vote stuffer has generally begun their vote stuffing during the the initial board vote.

Its one of us.

Final 1v1s in GotY are weird. Ghost of Tsushima came oddly close to Remake in 2020

As expected, the New Jersey vote stuffer is going with Astro Bot today.

Astro Bot currently has 73.91% in New Jersey.

MacArrowny posted...

pj was the first person to say objective!

the implication is there, and it's decidedly derisive one.

But damn I guess Astro Bot only looks close because of the stuffer

KamikazePotato posted...

I mean most people just aren't going to append every post with "by the way, this is my subjective opinion and is not an objective empirical standard". We're an informal social forum, not academia.

My point isn't that we can't talk about things aging, I don't think the term is being used appropriately. There's a negative connotation there.

But a different point is that it betrays a misunderstanding of the opinions of the past. Early 3D games were very often said to have bad cameras. They did not have a good reputation even at the time for example.

MacArrowny posted...

Final 1v1s in GotY are weird. Ghost of Tsushima came oddly close to Remake in 2020

Aside from the stuffer, there's just something about FF7 that brings out the anti-voters in a 1 v 1. It always wins !

Good showing from Astro, looks like the effects of the stuffer are pretty minimal as it is only at 57% in New Jersey now. Either the votes were removed again or they just kind of gave up, it stopped having a big effect after they got caught whichever way.

I do think, at the end of the day, Remake and Rebirth simply arent that strong. They are strong enough to win, but pretty average by GotY winner standards. Final Fantasy more broadly tends to start strong after release and slowly fade, as we saw when XV won GotY then wasnt even in the top three games for its year when GotD2 rolled around. Which goes with the fact that these games sell half their lifetime copies week one. They just dont stay in the public consciousness for long enough.

I think it's the kind of games that would be stronger in a contest setting actually, but also without being able to blowout anything. XV had public opinion sour a decent bit I don't think that's a great example, Remake has not really had that.

Not that I expect the Final Fantasy remakes to be powerhouses or anything, but I wouldn't use these as much of an indicator.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I think it's the kind of games that would be stronger in a contest setting actually

As FFVII itself is! It can lose to FFVI in a meaningless POTD and 60/40 it in an actual contest match.

pjbasis posted...

My point isn't that we can't talk about things aging, I don't think the term is being used appropriately. There's a negative connotation there.

But a different point is that it betrays a misunderstanding of the opinions of the past. Early 3D games were very often said to have bad cameras. They did not have a good reputation even at the time for example.

I also hear people say stuff like "wow FFVII's graphics didn't age well" referring to the Lego character models, which people made fun of in 1997, too

In a contest setting, idk how the FFVII remakes would fare.

Like imagine a game of the 20s contest that has all three in it. I don't see any of them standing out above each other to become some super strong game.

I think the recent Final Fantasies have benefitted a lot from their respective years being on the weaker side (or at least the other big games of their years needing more time to become popular; e.g. Hades vs. Final Fantasy VII Remake could be interesting now). I suspect they collapse as soon as you put them against something legit strong such as Elden Ring or Tears of the Kingdom.

MacArrowny posted...

Final 1v1s in GotY are weird. Ghost of Tsushima came oddly close to Remake in 2020

Its a shame we will likely never get another games contest, but it wouldnt surprise me if Ghost and Astro Bot are both relatively stronger than people think. Both well liked new Sony IPs. Also the remakes arent likely 1:1 with FF7

FF 7 always wins. Said it yesterday too.
Also is Astro Bot really that good? I mean I find it strange...

Safer_777 posted...

is Astro Bot really that good?

yes

Safer_777 posted...

FF 7 always wins.

Better than rally-fueled blowouts.

Safer_777 posted...

Also is Astro Bot really that good? I mean I find it strange...

You find it strange that a game that has won multiple gotys (including TGA) already is good?

(It is a better SMGalaxy)

So what's our strongest games of the first half of the decade? Looking at GotY polls, I came up with this list, ordered in line of how strong I think they'd be.

Elden Ring
Baldur's Gate 3
Tears of the Kingdom
FF7R1
FF7R2
Hades
RE4Make
Super Mario Bros. Wonder
Astro Bot
Metaphor
Metroid Dread
FF16
Ghost of Tsushima
God of War: Ragnarok

No way is XVI that high. It getting snubbed was silly, but it wasnt doing anything in that poll if it did make it in. It had a poor result in the halfway poll and that was probably the strongest it will ever be.

Instead, Animal Crossing New Horizons should be on there. It came quite close to Ghost of Tsushima.

LightningStrikes posted...

It had a poor result in the halfway poll

It beat RE4Make!

I don't think it would be too strong, maybe ride a little bit on franchise name, but I also wouldn't consider a poll in which Zelda godstomped too much.

MacArrowny posted...

It beat RE4Make!

And pretty easily at that

Granted it'd have been stuck in the same poll as TotK regardless but it's still silly it was omitted

And Diablo IV went from beating Street Fighter 6 to losing easily! But yeah RE4 did significantly better on Tears at the end of the year than in that poll. Why? Not sure, it did get some significant price cuts later in the year. Thats how I played it! Or maybe XVI was hurting it or it was splitting the vote with SF6. My point is more that XVI was never doing even that well again. Which makes it all the more disappointing it was snubbed!

Anyway, on this note what wins GotY this year? As yet unannounced 3D Mario? Metroid Prime 4? GTAVI if it actually comes out this year (it probably wont)? Monster Hunter Wilds as a dark horse?

GTA6 would get its ass kicked by Monster Hunter Wilds. Unannounced 3D Mario is the best contender, I think. Wonder how Hades 2 will do too.

tentpole title of the switch 2 is best bet

unless there is a Mario game I wouldnt rule out Yotei

FFDragon posted...

You find it strange that a game that has won multiple gotys (including TGA) already is good?

(It is a better SMGalaxy)

I haven't played platforms games in decades...I have to try that one I guess.

Just noticed the UK no longer has results by region and is instead country based only.

english erasure

Its been like that for a while and Im not sure why. Especially odd since most regions have bigger populations than Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Some as many as them all combined even.

shane15 posted...

Just noticed the UK no longer has results by region and is instead country based only.

To be specific, only England used to have results by region.

Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland have always had their results reported as the entire country. What has changed now is England's results are no longer reported by region, only as the entire country of England now.

LightningStrikes posted...

Good showing from Astro, looks like the effects of the stuffer are pretty minimal as it is only at 57% in New Jersey now. Either the votes were removed again or they just kind of gave up, it stopped having a big effect after they got caught whichever way.

The stuffer only put in a serious vote stuffing effort in the first 2 GotY polls, with the Spring poll being the one where votes were removed. The remaining GotY polls after the Spring poll had some stuffed votes, but nothing compared to the effort they made in the first 2 GotY polls.

Game of the Decade poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9794-

Huh, interesting poll. Glad they did this one.

At least we can get an idea of how Remake and Rebirth stack up against each other.

Rebirth has taken the lead over Remake now, but they remain almost equal in strength.

Metroid Dread is so overrated.

It appears Remake is needing a bunch of stuffing from New Jersey in order to avoid being a distant last place.

Metroid Dread has every reason to overperform here. It's the only Nintendo game versus two FFs and two WRPGs.

Poll updates and trend charts for the 3-way and 1v1 GotY polls:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u3oU8wd5-508VRXjNvMAGzYCj18l-k-uBir_bgOqits/pub?gid=1178529968

Time | Astro Bot | FFVII | Metaphor | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 35.54% | 44.63% | 19.83% | 121 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 33.24% | 42.23% | 24.54% | 701 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 30.38% | 41.05% | 28.56% | 1481 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 29.94% | 43.25% | 26.80% | 1082 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 32.91% | 41.49% | 25.60% | 1668 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 30.07% | 40.07% | 29.86% | 1400 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 28.00% | 41.33% | 30.67% | 225 | (22:00-24:00)

Time | Astro Bot | FFVII | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 48.74% | 51.26% | 119 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 47.50% | 52.50% | 661 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 45.04% | 54.96% | 1552 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 46.18% | 53.82% | 1035 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 46.29% | 53.71% | 1683 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 43.69% | 56.31% | 1419 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 44.40% | 55.60% | 259 | (22:00-24:00)

In the 3-way poll, Astro Bot did very well at the start of the poll and the Power Hour due to the vote stuffing from the New Jersey vote stuffer. But FFVII Rebirth also had a strong board vote as well, which came at the expense of Metaphor having a terrible board vote. Outside of the Power Hour, Astro Bot did quite well during the DSV. FFVII Rebirth did best during the BSV. Metaphor did best in the ASV and SNV.

For the 1v1 poll, the trends for FFVII Rebirth change quite a bit from what it showed in the 3-way poll. Metaphor's best time period was the ASV and SNV, and removing Metaphor from the poll caused FFVII Rebirth to have a far better ASV and SNV performance in the 1v1 poll.

FFVII Rebirth also won all 48 hours over Astro Bot between the 2 polls in the hourly trends, plus all 24 hours over Metaphor in the 3-way poll.