Current Events > CNN data guru says Republicans will lose big in midterms.

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CastletonSnob1
08/02/25 8:39:45 PM
#1:


https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnn-data-guru-harry-enten-warns-gop-it-will-be-eaten-alive-for-big-beautiful-bill/
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monkmith
08/02/25 8:43:18 PM
#2:


i'll never believe a political poll again. not after 2016.

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lilORANG
08/02/25 8:55:48 PM
#3:


Polls are bs already and can't possibly account for all the manipulation that is certain to happen between now and then

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divot1338
08/02/25 8:57:36 PM
#4:


lilORANG posted...
Polls are bs already and can't possibly account for all the manipulation that is certain to happen between now and then
Yeah polling can be bullshit but the initial part of the article stands.

People in solidly red districts are pissed.

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Cynrascal
08/02/25 8:58:06 PM
#5:


monkmith posted...
i'll never believe a political poll again. not after 2016.

Or the supposed Red Storm in 2022.

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creativerealms
08/02/25 8:59:49 PM
#6:


They will if the elections happen and are fair.

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ssjevot
08/02/25 9:01:46 PM
#7:


I'm not even going to bother countering the polling misinformation anymore because it's obvious people don't care.

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UnfairRepresent
08/02/25 9:01:56 PM
#8:


I find it hard to believe tbh

America just seems to have accepted Republican tryanny

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Vegy
08/02/25 9:02:09 PM
#9:


I doubt it tbh ;(

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Turbam
08/02/25 9:02:19 PM
#10:


I certainly hope so, but I am doubtful

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LightSnake
08/02/25 9:04:15 PM
#11:


"The party out of power will win the midterm against an unpopular president after he nukes the economy" isn't a hot take

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Takuya_Lee
08/02/25 9:05:32 PM
#12:


lilORANG posted...
Polls are bs already and can't possibly account for all the manipulation that is certain to happen between now and then

True, but there also comes a point where even manipulation won't matter. It feels like next year would be that kind of year, especially if things continue like this.

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Robot2600
08/02/25 9:06:47 PM
#13:


i don't think the gop is gonna have the latin vote for a while

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CARRRNE_ASADA
08/02/25 9:08:08 PM
#14:


They should by a landslide, but democrats are very disheartened. Reps are ride or die while dems are easily fractured over purity tests

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divot1338
08/02/25 9:17:42 PM
#15:


Robot2600 posted...
i don't think the gop is gonna have the latin vote for a while
Nah. They just cant quit Republicans. Been like that for awhile.

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M1Astray
08/02/25 9:23:22 PM
#16:


Understood, landslide win for the GOP incoming,

Seriously though after 2024 nobody should trust American polling for anything ever again. Didn't the Democrats reveal their internal polling showing Harris was not once in a winning position over Trump? Meanwhile the polls for the entire campaign were showing it as a knife-edge election the whole way.

Other countries like Australia have moderately accurate polls but America's simply don't work. They just seem unable to get the polling techniques to attain accurate results down.

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DrizztLink
08/02/25 9:25:49 PM
#17:


M1Astray posted...
Seriously though after 2024 nobody should trust America for anything ever again.
ftfy

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BlackScythe0
08/02/25 9:26:53 PM
#18:


So polling is bull shit. But yes the midterms should favor democrats. If it doesn't it's because the elections were rigged, and I don't just mean gerrymandering.
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UnfairRepresent
08/02/25 9:26:58 PM
#19:


I also have to question the logic

"The people who went to the town hall where mad about the Big Beautiful Bill. That means everyone is and will vote against it."

When has that ever been how politics works? The dudes going to Town Halls to yell at politicians are the ones who have vested interests in politics. Bill who stocks the cans of peas at Wal-Mart doesn't even know what the Big Beautiful Bill is. Let alone will sitll be mad about it in a year.

If any of this logic was true, Trump would never have been elected to anything, let alone president twice

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SaikyoStyle
08/02/25 9:29:38 PM
#20:


The only real advantage Democrats have in the midterm is that our soft, wet president isnt going to be on the ballot.

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Frosted_Midna
08/02/25 9:33:17 PM
#21:


Doubt it. Americans are comfortable with everything that is happening.

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monkmith
08/02/25 9:36:35 PM
#22:


SaikyoStyle posted...
The only real advantage Democrats have in the midterm is that our soft, wet president isnt going to be on the ballot.
he wont be on another ballot. either he'll actually be forced to leave when his term ends or he'll declare himself king and there wont be another presidential election.

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YellowSUV
08/02/25 9:38:22 PM
#23:


Assuming there are fair elections and no gerrymandering.

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bfslick50
08/02/25 9:45:26 PM
#24:


monkmith posted...
i'll never believe a political poll again. not after 2016.

Probability isnt great for a single event. Its a lot easier to predict the overall winning party of 535 congressional elections than it is to predict the presidential election.

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Starks
08/02/25 9:45:28 PM
#25:


Dems can be D+5 in generic ballot and gerrymandering can wipe that out in an instant.

Acting like there are more than a dozen or two competitive or newly-competitive districts is foolish.

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metralo
08/02/25 9:46:53 PM
#26:


Dems probably will stray from voting when hundreds of ICE guards are at polling stations.

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NintendoFan81
08/02/25 9:49:13 PM
#27:


A lot of the comments here are just snark, sarcasm and plain nonsense. I'm glad this board is a tiny tiny percent of U.S voters.

Anyway....Dems should win big.
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monkmith
08/02/25 9:54:23 PM
#28:


bfslick50 posted...
Probability isnt great for a single event. Its a lot easier to predict the overall winning party of 535 congressional elections than it is to predict the presidential election.
dont care. news groups like cnn spent fucking months telling prospective voters that trump wasn't going to win. that absolutely effected voter turnout.

ignore polls, treat every election like your vote is the deciding vote. that should be the message.

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bfslick50
08/02/25 10:01:17 PM
#29:


monkmith posted...
dont care. news groups like cnn spent fucking months telling prospective voters that trump wasn't going to win. that absolutely effected voter turnout.

ignore polls, treat every election like your vote is the deciding vote. that should be the message.

Well yea. The news and general public are terrible at understanding probability. They hear 80% chance and think that's pretty good but 80% chance is rolling a 9 or lower with 2 dice which is far from a sure thing.

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divot1338
08/02/25 10:03:02 PM
#30:


bfslick50 posted...
Probability isnt great for a single event. Its a lot easier to predict the overall winning party of 535 congressional elections than it is to predict the presidential election.
So what youre saying is we need Hari Seldon and his psychohistory?

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LightHawKnight
08/02/25 10:11:37 PM
#32:


Yeah nah, they are already cheating up the ass.

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NintendoFan81
08/02/25 10:13:16 PM
#33:


Frosted_Midna posted...
Doubt it. Americans are comfortable with everything that is happening.

Wrong. Are you posting bait or just misinformed?

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creativerealms
08/02/25 10:28:15 PM
#34:


Frosted_Midna posted...
Doubt it. Americans are comfortable with everything that is happening.
Nope they are not. What Trump is doing is so unpopular he even lost support on immigration the one issue he did great on. However it might not matter.

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AceMos
08/02/25 10:52:55 PM
#35:


just visit the leopards ate my face subreddit

you constantly see people getting screwed over by trump

who proudly declare they still support him

IT IS A CULT

these people cant fathom the idea of not supporting trump

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2001mark
08/02/25 11:15:03 PM
#36:


monkmith posted...
i'll never believe a political poll again. not after 2016.
Nor will your POTUS or ICE.
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Rika_Furude
08/02/25 11:20:16 PM
#37:


divot1338 posted...
Yeah polling can be bullshit but the initial part of the article stands.

People in solidly red districts are pissed.
I believe they are pissed but I dont believe they are pissed enough to overcome their hatred of democrats that Murdoch media has drilled into them
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Rexdragon125
08/02/25 11:27:13 PM
#38:


I mean Trump and Musk have boasted about hacking the voting machines multiple times
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Charged151
08/02/25 11:45:55 PM
#39:


M1Astray posted...
Understood, landslide win for the GOP incoming,

Seriously though after 2024 nobody should trust American polling for anything ever again. Didn't the Democrats reveal their internal polling showing Harris was not once in a winning position over Trump? Meanwhile the polls for the entire campaign were showing it as a knife-edge election the whole way.
Problem with polling with Trump involved is some people that are definitely voting for Trump are too embarrassed to admit it to anyone else (limited self-awareness), so they said they are "undecided" when they definitely aren't. Bill Clinton in the 2016 election caught onto this and said Trump's real poll numbers were a few points higher than they actually were, was ignored, and everyone was surprised when all the polls were wrong.

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NintendoFan81
08/02/25 11:49:26 PM
#40:


Rexdragon125 posted...
I mean Trump and Musk have boasted about hacking the voting machines multiple times

Exactly.

Once again...I want to point out Election Truth Alliance. They have went through election data from various places and found suspicious things.
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Yazarogi
08/02/25 11:51:27 PM
#42:


I dont believe it. I want it to be true. But I dont believe it.

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sfcalimari
08/02/25 11:52:04 PM
#43:


I see CE has of course completely forgotten about how all the polls showed Trump slightly ahead nationally and in all swing states from around August, and his lead kept growing incrementally.

When this was pointed out last year, nearly everyone on CE said that akshully the media was lying about the polls to make it look like more of an exciting race, and akshully Kamala was way ahead because reasons. The venn diagram of the people saying this and the people trolling for an entire year about Gaza and "earn my vote" is a circle.

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Charged151
08/03/25 1:02:52 AM
#45:


What's with the deleted messages?

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kingjeremy
08/03/25 1:18:34 AM
#46:


Assuming nothing funky, I agree with them. Republicans no longer show up unless Trump is on the ticket.
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SecretBase
08/03/25 1:19:25 AM
#47:


It's common sense and I don't get why people are being weird about it.

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Board_hunter567
08/03/25 1:27:23 AM
#48:


The effects of the latest transfer of wealth won't really be felt until after the midterms.
I doubt they'll lose big. Republicans will keep crowing about immigration and tax cuts non-stop and, unlike Democrats, when they see themselves losing in the polls they tend to make smart decisions that will turn things around. Interestingly enough, those decisions almost never entail "abandon our values and become more like Democrats" - makes you think.
But the pendulum will swing sooner or later.

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SecretBase
08/03/25 1:30:08 AM
#49:


M1Astray posted...
Seriously though after 2024 nobody should trust American polling for anything ever again.

AtlasIntel was the most credible pollster and said Harris was going to lose.

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dummy420
08/03/25 2:02:35 AM
#50:


They wont.

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Time
08/03/25 2:03:29 AM
#51:


It's normal for the presidential party to lose seats during the first midterms

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Dio
08/03/25 2:05:34 AM
#52:


monkmith posted...
he wont be on another ballot. either he'll actually be forced to leave when his term ends or he'll declare himself king and there wont be another presidential election.

Even Trump isnt stupid enough to do that. Republican's don't need a forever tyrant when they can run anyone they want and said person will do whatever they want.

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ssjevot
08/03/25 3:02:22 AM
#53:


SecretBase posted...
AtlasIntel was the most credible pollster and said Harris was going to lose.

I feel like that's underselling it, tons of polls said Harris was going to lose, but AtlasIntel also called every swing state correctly.

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