Board 8 > Valentine's Day Mafia Topic 8: You Give Love a Bad Name

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Kirby321
03/03/24 3:01:54 PM
#251:


SirChris posted...
You do seem pretty opportunistic KIrby ngl

Okay, that's a valid argument against me.

I'd like to point out that I went into this day wanting to lynch Sultan, as I've abundantly made clear. However, Ulti has been staunch about not lynching Sultan. Due to that, I'm forced to explore other options among my weaker reads. At the irony of parroting Dumey, he really expresses my current thoughts at the moment:

EDumey posted...
My problem right now is near everyone in the game having some heavy suspicion of Sultan, but not being able to lynch him because Ulti (someone else in many people's PoEs, that also fully supported Sultan as scum last night) is taking Chris's scan of no movement as law, and not entertaining any idea of maybe Sultan as scum just didn't move because he has a non-moving role and didn't submit night kill because of the suspicion on him?

The feel-bad of this dating style of game is that when my primary preferred lynch is denied me, I have to try and look at second/third options that I'm not as confident in. I rarely in any mafia game I've ever played have had a full scum team read that I'm confident in pursuing. It's always major suspect, then random trailing PoE behind it.

So if I seem opportunistic, it's because I really don't have many options to choose from that don't require me grasping at straws. Not to mention my last post literally had every single one of my reads, but nobody seems to want to engage with it. So you'll have to excuse me if I come off as haughty and indignant for being labeled as "opportunistic" without any regard to my content thus far.

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Isquen
03/03/24 3:04:01 PM
#252:


##date: Chris

I can confirm or get NK'd, simple as.

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#253
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Lopen
03/03/24 3:16:15 PM
#254:


MZero posted...
7. Dumey
11. Sir Chris

MZero posted...
6. Ulti
8. Corrik

MZero posted...
1. Mzero
4. Isquen

MZero posted...
3. Chaeix (JC)
5. FD

MZero posted...
2. Lopen
9. Sultan


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Chaeix
03/03/24 3:17:20 PM
#255:


11 Left - 9v2
9 Left - 7v2
7 Left - 5v2
5 Left - 3v2

It's been discussed that Mylo is 7 left if scum aren't forced to pair up because they just pair up at 5 and win. Let's use that as the basis for our approach here. Scumbuddies are more likely to want to pair up at 9 so that they can't pair up at 7. To be able to pair up at 9, they can't pair up at 11. I don't think the scumbuddies are likely to pair up today, so we should be considering yesterday's pairings and next day's once we have them. I think this is a generally safe paradigm to operate under because scum shouldn't be expecting a 3-death day which would potentially screw up their plans for when they can pair. This may all be useless but my brain thinks it's relevant.

Before I get to listing through everyone, can I get confirmation on whether Chris is prosty that targets his roommate, or a specific player? I missed that on my readthrough

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SirChris
03/03/24 3:18:00 PM
#256:


I target my roomie. Pretty sure the player is told that they were slept with by their partner too but that's more unclear from my pm

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Lopen
03/03/24 3:18:11 PM
#257:


Chaeix posted...
Chris is prosty that targets his roommate


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Chaeix
03/03/24 3:19:48 PM
#258:


SirChris posted...
I target my roomie. Pretty sure the player is told that they were slept with by their partner too but that's more unclear from my pm
Sweet thanks. While I'll admit I do agree you should have paired with a vanilla d2, I'm also hesitant to believe scum has a role cop + prosty. Kind of redundant.

SirChris posted...
I target my roomie. Pretty sure the player is told that they were slept with by their partner too but that's more unclear from my pm
Sultan can you please confirm? I'm not sure I've ever heard of a prosty that doesn't notify someone was slept with. Otherwise you'd just be weak tracker, a role which I have been?

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SirChris
03/03/24 3:20:50 PM
#259:


Oh they are 100% notified. I just meant I think they are told its literally me vs a generic slept with tag

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Kirby321
03/03/24 3:21:52 PM
#260:


Chaeix posted...
Sultan can you please confirm? I'm not sure I've ever heard of a prosty that doesn't notify someone was slept with. Otherwise you'd just be weak tracker, a role which I have been?

Sultan has already confirmed that he got a host PM saying he was slept with.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...
My message was your roommate (paraphrasing) slept with you


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SirChris
03/03/24 3:23:33 PM
#261:


Oh it did say me. Cool

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Chaeix
03/03/24 3:23:56 PM
#262:


SirChris posted...
Oh they are 100% notified. I just meant I think they are told its literally me vs a generic slept with tag
danke

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Chaeix
03/03/24 3:33:15 PM
#263:


1. Mzero - I've never seen this kind of scumhunting fire from MZero honestly. I like it and my kneejerk reaction is that it makes him town but the fact I've never seen this before is an asterisk.
2. Lopen - Lopen doesn't have enough information to solve the game and is stuck in "I am 100% right until I am wrong" mode with whatever conclusion he comes to still. Exhausting town.
3. Chaeix (JC) - meeee
4. Isquen - I'll be honest I still don't have much of a read on Isquen. I wouldn't say he's scummy necessarily but he's on the fringe of my PoE
5. FD - Was iffy at end of D1 and was somewhat assuaged yesterday, though honestly I don't remember why. Anyways I liked his analysis of the game state.
6. Ulti - I didn't talk too much with Corrik but I did mention to him that I thought Ulti + Sultan was a possibility. Kind of still think that, though Ulti pairing with Sultan doesn't line up with my notion that scum wouldn't pair up today. That being said, if Ulti he's anticipating a 3-person explosion at the end of the day, pairing with scumbuddy Sultan would be a 4d chess level move.
7. Dumey - Still convinced he's town from EoD D1 and our discussion N1.
8. Corrik - behavior last day extremely consistent with backup cop, no reason to disbelieve.
9. Sultan - I still think Sultan is scum tbh. I don't think he responded to MZero's questions well and he knew he had heat coming into N2 so he'd *have* to perform in his night chat, especially when paired with Chris. I'm hesitant to lean too hard into Chris' analysis despite generally trusting Chris.
10. Kirby - Kirby feels different today than last day. I think part of it is Sultan being his prime suspect and feeling somewhat unable to go down that path but he feels a bit more resigned to PoE than aggressive solving like the last couple days. Still think he's town because of EoD D1 though.
11. Sir Chris - I came into today a bit apprehensive of Chris still but the claim is confirmable. I'm very concerned whoever sleeps with Chris is going to die because if he's town, scum prevents him getting confirmed. I'm happy to pair with Chris so that he's partnered with a low value partner and he can confirm I don't move. You don't lose much if I die.

tl;dr i came into today kind of thinking ulti + sultan and still think that's probably the best solve i have at the moment. isquen/fd/Mzero > lopen/kirby/dumey > chris/corrik for my general tiering of suspicion beyond those two, assuming chris gets confirmed by more than sultan.

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 3:45:17 PM
#264:


Chaeix posted...
Sweet thanks. While I'll admit I do agree you should have paired with a vanilla d2, I'm also hesitant to believe scum has a role cop + prosty. Kind of redundant.

Sultan can you please confirm? I'm not sure I've ever heard of a prosty that doesn't notify someone was slept with. Otherwise you'd just be weak tracker, a role which I have been?

I got the message saying Your partner slept with you

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#265
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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 3:51:12 PM
#266:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Justin posting a wall of recap is like, his biggest scum tell.
Being more recap than actually reads is slightly concerning

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 3:51:55 PM
#267:


Lopen took my date interesting.

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Chaeix
03/03/24 3:55:28 PM
#268:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Justin posting a wall of recap is like, his biggest scum tell.
having scum tells requires actually having been scum doing that

i've been scum once since my return to mafia and i got lynched for claiming lady maria. i make lists in every game. don't pretend you have a frame of reference here.

i'll admit the list is kind of weak but i'm going through withdrawals at the moment and have very little energy or focus. i definitely phoned in the entire night phase, i think corrik and i exchanged less than 20 messages.


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Chaeix
03/03/24 3:57:17 PM
#269:


TheSultanOfSlam posted...
Being more recap than actually reads is slightly concerning
your reads are equally deep my friend

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Kirby321
03/03/24 3:58:29 PM
#270:


I might have reading comprehension issues, but JC's post doesn't feel recap-y at all to me. I mean, sure, he's echoing the same thoughts that everybody else has, but it's like... who doesn't want to lynch Sultan today lol

Ulti is also a popular pick, but I've never gotten a solid answer for why he'd put himself at Dumey's whims at EoD D2 if he was scum. Why does scum Ulti willingly risk his neck when he just saw his scummate die from abandoning safety the previous day?

Like, honestly, I'd rather lynch Dumey over Ulti today.

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 3:59:58 PM
#271:


Chaeix posted...
your reads are equally deep my friend

It did take me 3 times to see what your read were beyond the recap was definitely being lazy reading it. The reads at more hidden than anything

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#272
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Chaeix
03/03/24 4:01:17 PM
#273:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Older frames of reference are still a reference <_<
yeah but the old frame of reference has been dismantled because every single time someone has said that in the last year, they've been wrong

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 4:02:32 PM
#274:


Scum is really pushing my mislynch today and there reasons are soo trash bag. And all echo the same trash reasons

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#275
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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 4:04:59 PM
#276:


Anyone have any of Mzeros current reads??

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 4:06:40 PM
#277:


Chaeix posted...
1. Mzero - I've never seen this kind of scumhunting fire from MZero honestly. I like it and my kneejerk reaction is that it makes him town but the fact I've never seen this before is an asterisk.


What fire who are his reads?

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Chaeix
03/03/24 4:09:03 PM
#278:


TheSultanOfSlam posted...
What fire who are his reads?
mostly the way he was questioning you. he was asking great questions and i've never seen him interrogate quite like that

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 4:13:23 PM
#279:


Chaeix posted...
mostly the way he was questioning you. he was asking great questions and i've never seen him interrogate quite like that

I mean I guess but it was alot of what was already asked and already answered.

I really don't understand how people still don't get im fucking good at this game and my strategy was smart but we already went in this fish pond and o was confirmed not moving how I'm most of people top suspect is really bad. Just saying.

Someone on my case is scum 100%

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Kirby321
03/03/24 4:18:23 PM
#280:


I can't tell if Sultan is legitimately confused or if he's just gaslighting us on purpose. Like, MZero was asking questions pointing out contradictory behavior from you, Sultan. They were legitimate questions and I completely agree with JC that MZero had a great line of thinking.

Really, though, today's discussion as a whole can basically be summed up as everyone going "no u". I can't even tell where everyone's heads are at because everybody seems interested in picking up their pitchforks and accusing people, but nobody is willing to explain the why behind their accusations. Just "I'm right, you're wrong, 'nuff said"

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Lopen
03/03/24 4:20:15 PM
#281:


Kirby321 posted...
Ulti, can you please just let Sultan die? Mans isn't even reading the game and is throwing baseless shade as a defense lol


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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 4:30:02 PM
#282:


Kirby the questions were fine hut they were already asked and answered and yall still don't get it

I mean that is alot from mzero wasn't calling him scum but also don't know what any of Mzeros other reads are

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 4:30:53 PM
#283:


Um Kirby I got some news for you don't understand lopens post

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Kirby321
03/03/24 4:32:30 PM
#284:


I'm just gonna sit back and let other people chime in. I feel like I'm going in circles debating with the same people over and over again. We shall see what the majority believes

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Lopen
03/03/24 4:34:17 PM
#285:


Kirby321 posted...
please just let Sultan die


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Lopen
03/03/24 4:34:36 PM
#286:


TheSultanOfSlam posted...
Someone on my case is scum 100%


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#287
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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 4:49:56 PM
#288:


Kirby321 posted...
1) The day just started
2) I've been staunchly opposed to Lopen and Dumey's proposition triple kill tactic
3) Doesn't explain why you're being hypocritical and accusing others of sheeping Lopen when you've been guilty of that as well, as MZero has pointed out many, many times

Ulti, can you please just let Sultan die? Mans isn't even reading the game and is throwing baseless shade as a defense lol




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#289
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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 5:28:04 PM
#290:


EDumey posted...
My problem right now is near everyone in the game having some heavy suspicion of Sultan, but not being able to lynch him because Ulti


Im not paired with Ulti.

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Chaeix
03/03/24 5:36:37 PM
#291:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Sultan lives.

We have a positive data point in his defense. The no-move scan that he couldnt have possibly been aware of. Stop trying to make 173895 IQ plays and go with the easy play.
fwiw this is not a strong argument coming from you given you were caught no-moving by a scanner you werent aware of last game. and at best you can only reduce it to a coin flip of which scum would shoot. Its also possible that scum was paired with a claimed person and fired the shot from there to limit risk of being scanned.

like hypothetically (not seriously) say corrik is sultans scumbuddy and he pairs with me. Im vanilla so he knows I wont be tracking him. He shoots instead of sultan.

obviously we cant conclusively say any of this happened but on the flip side, a refusal to acknowledge the possibility sultan is scum is concerning

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#292
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#293
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Forceful_Dragon
03/03/24 5:53:47 PM
#294:


EDumey posted...
Though I think Corrik is the one that really kind of put the proverbial nail in the Lea coffin, with his meta validation that she shouldn't exist. Unfortunate that he was operating on the false premise that Town Cop would read his posts.

Pretty sure I mentioned this already, but I found l found it to have been particularly ironic from someone who also skipped large swathes of posts.

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Isquen
03/03/24 6:09:08 PM
#295:


##Breakup
##Date: MZero
##Date: JC

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Forceful_Dragon
03/03/24 6:19:15 PM
#296:


Kirby321 posted...
And then, Ulti is a wildcard. But does scum Ulti play so recklessly that he willingly leaves his life in Dumey's hands, ready to die at a moment's notice despite his team already being down a player? That just seems a little too dangerous.

Isn't that exactly why though? If you're on an already small scum team and you got Peaf'D day 1, you might feel like the only viable play is a risky one, if only just to have a shot.

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Kirby321
03/03/24 6:22:55 PM
#297:


I find it interesting how this game has basically split into two camps at this point in the game

You've got Lopen, Sultan, Ulti, and Chris on one side
And then me, FD, Dumey, JC, and MZero on the other side

Corrik is MIA but confirmed town so it's not like there's any pressure for him to be here
And then Isquen is just doing his own thing

I get the feeling that this is going to end in another day where town gets lynched. Camp #2 clearly wants Sultan to be lynched, but Camp #1 is protecting him, so now Camp #2 needs to decide who among them is going to die, except nobody is willing to push forth an idea because no one has a solid idea on who is scum besides Sultan.

JC puts out an argument of "the tracking scan can easily be played around if the scum team is cautious enough" which supports the argument of "Sultan's actions don't match the weak scan". It's a valid, original thought... and then gets met with "lol I guess scanners are useless then", as if it hasn't been repeated over and over again. No wonder discussion today has been absolutely stagnant.

So what's the point? Let's just get this over with and move on to the part of the day that actually gets people in motion.

##Date: FD
##Date: MZero

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Kirby321
03/03/24 6:26:00 PM
#298:


Forceful_Dragon posted...
Isn't that exactly why though? If you're on an already small scum team and you got Peaf'D day 1, you might feel like the only viable play is a risky one, if only just to have a shot.

Maybe, but we keep talking about scum who are trying to lay low and play safely. I'm not going to say a risky play from scum Ulti is impossible, but let's start simple before we start going down the rabbit holes.

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 6:38:14 PM
#299:


Kirby still hasn't realized his problem. I mean it's kinda minor but still

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/03/24 6:56:22 PM
#300:


Chaeix posted...
fwiw this is not a strong argument coming from you given you were caught no-moving by a scanner you werent aware of last game. and at best you can only reduce it to a coin flip of which scum would shoot. Its also possible that scum was paired with a claimed person and fired the shot from there to limit risk of being scanned.

like hypothetically (not seriously) say corrik is sultans scumbuddy and he pairs with me. Im vanilla so he knows I wont be tracking him. He shoots instead of sultan.

obviously we cant conclusively say any of this happened but on the flip side, a refusal to acknowledge the possibility sultan is scum is concerning


I didn't know Chris was Prosty???

I thought I was fighting for my life in a chat.
You still on Protys godfather??


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