Lurker > Forceful_Dragon

Dumey doesn't have to?

Isn't that your POE? Sultan, Isquen and Yourself?

So sayeth Ulti. Game solver extraordinaire.

Welp, let me know when you're done solving the game. Have to do grocery shopping and run a few errands so I'll be back later once you've cracked it.

I mean my list is obviously MZero, Sultan, Isquen if your name is being removed.

Would be interesting to see how different RWBY would have been if we never lost Monty

Well if Ulti and Isquen insist on their date then they are basically confirming that they are on the chopping block tomorrow.

If chris is immovable then Sultan isn't an option either and MZero is the last of the 4.

Sultan not moving on a night before we knew about prosty is certainly a point in his favor. But we need to consider that scum has a way to be invisible to prosty. In any case we can simply force Sultan to pair with one of Isquen/Ulti tomorrow to rule out a game over on 5 if MZero flips town.

Kirby321 posted...

Convince Ulti to break up with Isquen, then.

Because I agree with Dumey. I don't feel comfortable lynching MZero until either Ulti or Sultan flips first.

And if you or dumey dates MZero, and Chris dates Sultan then that leaves me or JC in the final 3 with the non-mzero-dater between you and dumey. Basically the worst timeline where none of the 4 get flipped.

Kirby321 posted...

Ulti, what's your argument for Isquen being town? You are banned from using the name "Lopen" in your explanation

"Someone" told him that isquen was town and he believed "them".

<__<

I pick any 1 of those 4 to get the process started. Sultan, Mzero, Isquen, Ulti, really don't care who. Ulti and Isquen aren't playing ball right now though and I'm getting tired of explaining why them pairing today is bad for The Plan

UltimaterializerX posted...

FD made a very good point there. Scum cant pair up today in any kind of an obvious way.

I don't know what "there" is in reference to, but refusing to let you 4 pair today, and forcing you to pair on 7 is instrumental to preventing 2 scum from ending the game on 5.

Hopefully we just hit scum on 9/7 straight away, but that might not be an option and not letting scum protect themselves on 9 is the first step. Which has been explained several times, and yet you and isquen are paired so screw my plan I guess.

Yeah hopefully the continuation of podcasting is enough to keep Face Jam and F**kFace going.

I still watch Jeremy and Matt on twitch a decent amount, not so much Ray lately, but it's awesome when they all do crossover content from time to time.

If the podcasting isn't enough to support themselves then maybe we'll see Michael on twitch more now.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Sure but please post it again.

The best thing about this format is you can think Im a brick wall all you want, but you still have to humor me to get what you want. None of that plurality nonsense :)

I don't have to do shit. I don't have to coddle you simply because you REFUSE to do your due diligence. The posts are there, find 'em.

If it's legitimately both you and Isquen then you can't protect each other tomorrow, so that's that. Otherwise if you're town then you're just throwing by protecting someone with a good chance to be scum.

UltimaterializerX posted...

FD. Can I see the plan again?

You certainly can, I promise I haven't deleted any of the posts.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I want the entire game to humor me here. Assume were both town (I can guarantee you I am at least), then give two scum names.

I devised an entire plan around my expectation that both scum can be found within the four of you. I literally could not have been more clear about this, and the post you are quoting GAVE the two other names on where I'd look.

It's like talking to a wall.

Chaeix posted...

Im hard pressed to believe its not Ulti/Isquen trying to make it so they cant pair at 7 at this point.

both of their reads of the game are just so bad, theyre not trying to solve at all and Ulti is just trying to use chaotic town Ulti most to skate by. If they dont pair up today, they easily lose one of each other so their best play is to try and create chaos so they can survive tomorrow.

I mean if it's legitimately just both of them then nothing we do today matters. But if either of them is town then the fact that they are harboring the other is incredibly concerning. Neither of them (as town) should at all feel confident in the other based upon the litany of reasons provided. Still, failing a breakup from them, all we can do is take the best shot possible among who's left which for me means Mzero or Sultan.

Damn, guess I can end my First subscription :(

Kirby321 posted...

Could be that by invoking his bold personality and crazy antics, he's expecting us to flinch and think he's town when he is actually scum and would get wiped by FD's plan.

to be honest I expected scum would want to appear willing to go along with the plan to try and dodge the noose today, and then speak out loudly against the plan tomorrow to try and prevent it from resolving then.

But perhaps the threat of logical defeat was enough to spook them entirely.

Anyways if Ulti and Isquen stay together they are just ensuring that one of them dies tomorrow. All we can do in that case is lynch someone else today and hope there is only 1 scum in that pair and we still have a chance to hit the other.

But I have a feeling we're going to get to tomorrow and someone else will break ranks and the whole plan is just going to be a giant screw me for trying.

EDumey posted...

my perception of Ulti is that you can't really catch him on inconsistent logic, but instead on his motivations

And his motivations have felt sus from day 1.

Taking a free date with red and holding it forever.

Trying to do the same day 2 with Isquen.

Trying to do the same day 3 with Kirby/Sultan.

Trying to do the same day 4 with Isquen (again).

The ONLY thing he has going for him in terms of seeming more town motivated was putting the power in your hands to kill him day 2. But that can be explained as a risk taken by an already outnumbered scum team OR just a hard read that you would never actually drop him to save a Lea who was not showing much willingness to live and play on.

You take away that gambit and what does ulti have going for him?

I got immediately busy with work so I was hoping someone else would explain to ulti why having 1 scum remaining in a game that explicitly states we started with 3 scum is not viable.

Also when he accepted ISquen's date request he said "about damn time!". I guess that's in reference to his attempts to date isquen on day 2 to save him from a day 2 lynch. And now he's still just willing to push Isquen an extra day forward regardless of anything happening in the game?

But if Isquen and Ulti don't budge we're at an impasse until tomorrow.

UltimaterializerX posted...

. The possibility of FD being scum means we shouldnt be allowing him to decide everyone elses pairings.

I literally do not care which of you 4 dies today. Pick a card, any card. The reason it's a mathematical plan is because it guarantees any 2 of you cannot possibly survive as scum.

I also have very clearly left it to OTHER people to decide today's pairings, though Kirby is insisting that I have a more active role in deciding today's affairs. I don't see what that's necessary, but I also don't think it matters, because the logic should hold true regardless.

Once again, you are completely full of it.

ChrisFear is well documented and historically well founded.

But if we lose to the inno-scan-and-twice-confirmed-prosty-godfather then I'm willing to take that L and subsequently dayvig Chang at the next available opportunity <3

MZero posted...

although now that I think about it 2 scum win in 5 if they didn't pair up the previous day, right?

Yes, this has been brought up numerous times now.

First by corrik on day 2.

I brought it up several times after that. And then Dumey has also referenced it and expanded upon it to include how the logic might apply to the day of 9 or day of 11 as well.

It is also factored into my plan. If we miss today, then we try a different person tomorrow, but the other two get FORCED to pair on 7, that way if we miss x2 the scummates are not allowed to pair on 5 because they will have been forced to pair on 7.

SirChris posted...

I feel like I want alignment indicative things to kill people for on day 4 not NAI ones tho

Well I think many of the posts I quoted presented justification for believing ulti is scum.

The posts themselves are just evidence of him being full of it by starting today by saying "FD hasn't even TRIED to kill me, he's probably scum".

It was literally most of what I did day 3.

SirChris posted...

I dont think fd not moving means much for fd tbh, given it was stipulated to, but for sultan i think its a good look still.

That's fair. Anyone could simply choose not to act after the Prosty claim is revealed, but the more important thing is that YOU got confirmed for the second time as telling the truth, which combined with your inno scan should really be enough to put all the scum chris theorizing to bed.

It is a bit more meaningful that Sultan didn't move on a night he couldn't have known he was going to be slept with, but there are scum roles that could explain this. Also his play otherwise still earns him a spot in that bottom 4 (imo)

SirChris posted...

The last game I played here Ulti was full of it but was also town, oddly not a scum tell for ulti

He was equally full of it last game as scum. So maybe it's in his town range, but I'd prefer that he simply learn that being ridiculously full of it will get him killed and he should not do that anymore.

MZero posted...

They might not even have a blocker

I remember Lopen saying something to this effect day 2 and it pinged me weird since it sounded a bit TMI. But he still looked good from day 1 and now he's confirmed town vanilla so :shrug:

But since things are slowing down I'm going to play a game I like to call "Finish what I started earlier and quote all the posts from day 3 that show Ulti is full of it"

If you are unsure what this is in reference to, see T10P270. I'll be picking up from there.

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Forceful_Dragon posted... (T9P11)

Ulti: Perhaps the worst #Datal track record of them all. Paired with red immediately day 1, gave red a full and complete pass. Was paired with Kirby for most of day 2 I believe until Kirby broke it off, and then he did the confirm/breakup dance with Dumey before leaving his fate "in dumey's hands". Cut to today where he became the new red, spamming date requests, got accepted by MZero, who he's shown no signs of being willing to break it off with. On track for a repeat performance of day 1.

This was shortly after I posted the 3 images showing all the Dating Actions from the first three days. I did a write up on my impressions of everyones dating action track records, but Ulti's was by far the most excoriating. The only thing not mentioned here is that after the update MZero broke up with Ulti and then Ulti dated Sultan instead. Ostensibly that was on the back of Chris' prosty claim, but it still kept Ulti far from danger once more.

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Forceful_Dragon posted... (T9P76)

I've said multiple times today that I'd prefer to lynch one of Ulti or MZero. They are currently dating each other though so barring either of them as an option I'd go down my list to either Sultan or Isquen.

Self explanatory.

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Forceful_Dragon posted... (T9P99)

Which is exactly why there is no chance the timing would work this way (which was later confirmed by Chang when the discussion about the scan persisted). I view this as Ulti digging in a wrong direction to waste town's time on something irrelevant.

Another callout of Ulti for anti town behavior. Specifically in reference to grilling Kirby about whether he would get access to red's scan on the night red died. Distracting town at best and trying to find an illegitimate reasons to suspect or mislynch Kirby at worst.

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Forceful_Dragon posted... (T9P182)

Anyways i'm gonna be in and out until after we hit the 6 hour mark, do we have recent votals?

as far as I can tell Ulti and MZero are still paired despite mzero's belief that it wouldn't or couldn't last? Disappointing if so.

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Forceful_Dragon posted... (T9P356)

For me it's just going to be MZero and Ulti still and I have no confidence in today not being a mislynch anymore.

I was upset earlier when MZero and Ulti were paired, but my next options were Sultan or Isquen. But then even when MZero and Ulti broke up all four of them still just ended up paired with each other. Not only that but now if there are 2 scum in that group of 4 and they aren't paired today, they can just pair up tomorrow! I'm not happy that all of them avoided even being the bottom 5. No risky deals or dates needed to be struck to save any of them from an actually dangerous moment.

Also self explanatory.

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No less than a dozen posts singling out either Ulti or Ulti/Mzero in tandem.

And some how this is one of his first posts only about 15 minutes into the new day:

UltimaterializerX posted... (T10P232)

but FD is pinging me because hes been entirely too nice to me this game. Town FD would have tried to full murder me ages ago I feel.

Just laughably bad. Would have been more believable if you claimed that I seemed bad because I was SO TUNNELED on you. But to come in and claim the opposite?

Well so far from the group of 4 MZero and Sultan have both tacitly agreed.

And from the group of 5 I think everyone but JC has indicated agreement if that constitutes agreement on your part, Chris.

Perhaps it's that easy and it's just Isquen/Ulti, or one of the other two is just crossing their fingers and hoping we hit town first and then decide to abandon the plan tomorrow.

Either way confirmation from JC would be nice and then we can get moving.

Are you calling Dumey kingmaker for asking Chris to help execute my plan?

EDumey posted...

Oh right FD I forgot to gloat that I was right there is a way to have an even amount of kills! Modkills! Eat that!

Egg all over my face

Though I think day would just end to preserve the even/odd setup in that case, lol

Kirby321 posted...

Not even close

FD, Chris, JC, Dumey, and I decide who dies. You, MZero, Ulti, and Isquen have absolutely zero say in the matter, and if you try to pair up with someone else who's not in the first five, you out yourselves as scum and will be killed off by town in the next days.

Precisely!

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Wait FD can you exsplain this more.. you want us to split into 2 groups and pair with in the groups?

I don't want you or the other 3 sussies to DO anything.
Read post 325 if you don't understand, but if both scum are in the 4 of you, then it looks like a method to lock the game up every time.

And if you are town and think both scum are in the other 3 (Ulti, MZero, Isquen) then you should have no reason not to go along.

Kirby321 posted...

FD, I think I'd be more okay with that plan if you and Chris swapped places. Forgive my paranoia, but I don't think it'd sit well with me if you didn't have an active voice in who gets saved forcing you to commit to a pair of some kind.

I mean I'm literally fine with any version of who decides who dies, as long as it's among those 4. It seems if my plan was suspect then you would want me to not influence the death order, but I don't mind either way. It feels like a mathematical solution that only misses if both scum aren't in the 4pack. But if even 1 scum is in the 4pack then we still have strong odds hitting that 1 and not losing the game on 5.

It sounds like Isquen is going to need to relax his standards if he wants to get adopted then.

If anyone is worried about me putting my thumb on the scale I'd be happy to take my opinion out of the running today.

Group 1: Ulti, MZero, Sultan, Isquen

Group 2: Chris, Dumey, Kirby, JC

Group 3: FD

1 person from group 2 pairs with me. Maybe whoever has the least confident reads? Either way, take 1 person out of group 2, leaving 3 people in group 2. Each of those 3 people adopts someone from Group 1 and whoever is left is dead.

MZero posted...

fair warning I'm not pairing up with Ulti or Sultan so if you bring them to final 3 with me the triple kill is happening

Tempting, but I still think triple kills are anti-town regardless how how likely they seem to hit scum. Game would straight up end if the scum was Isquen +1 person who seems town.

But my plan would require that none of the 4 of you pair up with each other today anyways so I guess that's neither here nor there.

EDumey posted...

I mean for your plan to work, we just need to get Chris, you, me, Kirby, and JC on board, right? But then a secret FD scum does guarantee a way to the endgame there, so paranoia will probably seep in at some point.

tbh I don't see myself surviving until the day of 5 regardless. I think the only reason I'm still alive is the fact the Corrik outed himself and Red day 2. Barring that I expect the fact that I wasn't showing up on anyone's POE was going to be the end of me night 2. That would have honestly been fine because the extra scan from red either clears 2 people or locates a scum. But I wasn't counting on the backup cop to declare loudly that the real cop either didn't exist or needed to come forward immediately.

MZero posted...

Corrik was one of the people complaining. I even quoted it!

Yes, but corrik simply existing and choosing not to interact with the Date mechanics at all still meant it was impossible for you to get 12 hour'D, regardless of the complaints he made about it afterwards.

It might be possible today, but it was 100% not possible any of the previous days because there was always someone who hadn't even made a single request going into end of day.

But like, I wanted one of those 4 yesterday, and they all dated each other. There is literally nothing stopping all 4 of them from just pairing up again today in a different configuration.

Ultimately the biggest problem with my plan is it requires everyone to fall in line, which seems impossible in the format. a single rogue date request from someone who doesn't agree blows the whole thing up. And if there are going to be arguments on who should even be in the group of 4 then that disparity and rogue date request only becomes more likely.

I was just trying to find a way to reduce the noise and chaos of the format and I think I found it, but it just might not be viable.

EDumey posted...

FD and I both list Isquen as a distant fourth

I think Isquen's theatrical ##OfferBreakup with less than 90 seconds left actually moves him up in my list, but there's a pretty big gap between Ulti and the other 3.

EDumey posted...

FD I'm down to try and set up the lynches in a way you think is smart. But at the end of the day, we're making assumptions that scum is playing to pair up on the correct day, when they could have just paired up on the wrong day and be out of sync now or something.

Right, but if both scum are found in those 4 (as I believe they are) then the swap between Ulti/MZero and Ulti/Sultan could very well have been an effort to do exactly that. "Oh Dumey is saying scum wants to pair on 9 and will avoid pairing on 11, so let's just pair on 11 and avoid pairing on both 9 and 7", or the reverse swapping from each other to keep pairing on 9 as an option.

But I also don't want to be the one to designate pairs. I just think if we can come to an agreement on the 4 players then the lynch order doesn't really matter and someone else (in my town pile, preferably) can take a more active role designating pairs.

MZero posted...

and oh by the way, I wasn't paired up until just before the 6-hour cutoff Day 2, so you guys could have killed me at any of the 12-hour marks.

False.

Corrik did not do any dating actions until the VERY end of the day. There were a couple others who did not have any dating actions until later on as well. But the ONLY way for a 12 hour rule to be initiated is for every single last other person to be paired. Unless corrik suddenly became NOT corrik and set up an early pair with someone? No you could not possibly have been killed during a 12 hour rule.

Kirby321 posted...

But what about FD?

I don't think anyone else has brought up the fact that FD has been positioning himself in fairly safe pairs for most of the game. I'd like to discuss that a bit further to see whether it's a valid suspicion or not.

I mean I just said a bit but I can elaborate if you're unconvinced.

Day 1: Very shakey, was actually undated during the first chunk of the 6 hour window until Lopen came around. Did the date swap and Peaf (scum) was lynched. It might have been difficult to justify it the next day but I could have absolutely made up an excuse to save Peaf over someone else. "I really like the Peaf was willing to confirm his breakup with Dumey and put himself at risk to save a town read. That makes him the stronger of the pair to me, ##Date: Peaf". It's too easy to save peaf for anyone who had a chance to break up and do so, which is ALSO why the scum was likely simply found in the pairs who didn't have have an opportunity to save Peaf.

Day 2: I confirmed my date with MZero shortly before the 6 hour window. Not because I was worried about having a date myself, but because MZero was threatening to accept red's spam date request. I believed Red deserved to be in the end of day conversation, and MZero had JUST had full safety with his all-day date with Sultan day 1, so I did the only thing I could think to do in the moment to prevent the MZero/Red pair. In hindsight, I should have just accepted the date with red and then broken up with red at 6 hours and 1 minute (after MZero had gone), but I didn't think of it at the time.

Day 3: Lopen and Chris, two of my town reads were at each other's throats during the first half of the day. I liked that they seemed to make up later, but I was willing to provide either of them safety and didn't particularly care who. Pairing with Chris also allowed me to be the secondary confirmation that he is actually Prosty. I'm still not willing to entertain godfather prosty, so he's as full cleared as you can possibly be. I believe it was also Ulti who insisted that Chris pair with me, though at the time I thought that meant chris might be NK'd in an effort to make me look worse, especially after Corrik said he wasn't actually backup.

Kirby321 posted...

FD has been the only one stealthily avoiding danger.

I certainly don't mind you looking in every direction, because that's a good thing to do, but I wouldn't fully agree with this. I felt *very* much in danger day 1 when the 6 hour mark hit and I was still unpaired. Lopen at that point had been talking about killing me and only offered me a date when you said something that made him suspect you more.

While certainly my date swap at the EoD1 was not risky to myself (which I've personally tried to clarify whenever anyone says otherwise), simply being unpaired during the 6 hour window was harrowing. Also my day 1 date swap did seem to contribute to Peaf's death even if I wasn't directly in danger during the maneuver.

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But also everyone is ignoring my logical proposition in post 325 which I don't love :/

And people are tossing dates around which is incredibly sus on 9 for all of the previously mentioned reasons.

Okay, so here's what I was thinking.

We're on 9 Players. Take 4 players:

Player A
Player B
Player C
Player D

A, B and C all pair DIFFERENT people but not each other today (So they pair with E, F and G). If any pairing of A, B and C tries to date each other then they get blown up tomorrow, no exceptions. They play along today or they give themselves up as scummates and die tomorrow.

D gets lynched.

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If D is scum then fantastic, but if not, then we're onto the next day.

On 7 players:

A and B *must* pair each other on 7. Everyone else must refuse to pair either of them.

C gets lynched.

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Now we're onto 5 players, and even if we missed twice, the remaining 2 suspects can NOT save each other on 5. Someone detonates A and B, roll credits.

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Someone can check my work, but I'm pretty sure if both scum are really in a group of 4 then victory becomes unavoidable. To me that group of 4 is the same 4 I wanted to look at yesterday, Ulti, MZero, Sultan and Isquen, and because I think the plan works regardless of lynch order I don't even care what order we take them out in. I would prefer Ulti first, not just based upon points i made yesterday regarding his #Datals, but ALSO because he came out the gate today swinging at me saying things that were just patently false, but as long as both scum are there then I don't think the order matters.

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The other 5 that I'd be taking out of running are: Myself, Chris (scanned inno, 2x confirmed prosty including by myself), Dumey and Kirby (who looked pretty good EoD yesterday) and JC.

JC is the one I'm least certain about removing from POE, but he still had EoD1 working in his favor I believe.

Anyways I have about an hour of daylight to do some work in the yard, back in a bit.

I don't want any of those 4 dating today.

If we can all agree on a 4pack which likely contains both scum then I think there is actually a logical process by which we can lynch one of them, and pair the other 3 with not-each other. Then the following day lynch another one, and force the other two to pair WITH each other. That way even if we miss twice and the other two are scum/scum they are forced to pair on 7 and can be blown up on 5.

I looked at the numbers a bit this morning and I think it works, but importantly no one should be suggesting their OWN pairings today, but rather 2 other people they think can safely pair.

EDumey posted...

Hmm. I was kind of hoping you would say you were trying to triple kill me and JC. lol. I would have bought you as 100% town if that were the case. Now I'm not so certain. It's such a weird interaction to gauge because MZero ACTUALLY WAS THERE as opposed to when Sultan did his toothless breakup D1.

Oh are we talking about Isquen's ##BreakupRequest with less than 90 seconds left in the day? I got distracted by the blatant misinformation Ulti was propagating.

I absolutely view that breakup request from Isquen as pointless posturing since there didn't seem to be any chance MZero would come through with a breakup confirmation and try to set up new pairs in the final minute and a half.

Forceful_Dragon posted... (T7P347)

We discussed the possibility of who might have been a scum/scum pair from day 2 and my bet was on Ulti/Dumey

My very first post of day 3. Granted it was more Ulti and Dumey that led to this feeling and Dumey (as well as Kirby) look pretty good based upon the EoD, but it was the first of many expresses of doubt towards Ulti being town.

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Forceful_Dragon posted... (T8P45)

Not to immediately go back on my 'less quoting pledge', but this is the exact opposite of my reaction. I told MZero last night but this is exactly why I felt like Dumey and Ulti would have been the scum/scum pairing last night if there was one. It gives Ulti the credit of claiming he's willing to be sacrificed and giving the power to sacrifice him to another, and gives Dumey the credit of constantly looking willing to consider pressing the button, but ultimately deciding it wasn't worth it.

That feels like the optimal way for scum/scum to form a date and try to minimize sus. But if not them then I'd say we just had two town/scum pairs of which they still could have been one of.

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Forceful_Dragon posted... (T8P56)

so for the moment that leaves MZero and Ulti for my preferred "lynch" today.

This was part of a marge larger posts of my town reads roughly in order of strength ending with Sultan, Isquen, MZero and Ulti. Sultan was being vouched for by Chris (who is now confirmed prosty) and Isquen was being vouched for by Lopen. So this is where I landed LESS THAN 8 HOURS into day 3.

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Forceful_Dragon posted... (T8P149)

I wouldn't say "mortally convinced", but lynch ulti and prosty Dumey is a nice compromise. No triple kills

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Forceful_Dragon posted... (T8P179)

I'm not crazy about Ulti and MZero protecting each other, they both coasted with early dates day 1 and are square in my poe today.

Obviously if neither will budge there's nothing I can do about it. Failing their date breaking up, I would be open to testing Sultan.

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Forceful_Dragon posted... (T8P301)

I don't think that IS a rabbit hole though? We're talking about a playstyle change that occurred after day 1. It's entirely possible and maybe even probable that the remaining scum would have to dramatically change things up and make a big risk for a big potential payout.

The context of this post is me explaining why I DO think it makes sense for scum Ulti to give dumey the power to control his life at the end of day 2. It displays a willingness to be put onto the chopping block without actually be on the chopping block and is the kind of high risk play scum might feel is necessary when they are already behind.

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Forceful_Dragon posted... (T8P314)

Currently the entire case against seems to be because Lopen claimed Gambler and Isquen didn't completely fall apart.

I said earlier that was probably good enough to look elsewhere today, but if my preferred choices aren't available (Ulti and MZero are still paired with each other) then my next choices would be Sultan or Isquen.

And here's another one!

And now i have to end this post because I'm already at the 7 quote block limit, but trust me, there's MORE.

I still think BOTH scum can be found in: Ulti, Mzero, Sultan, Isquen and the only reason all 4 are alive today is because they all dated each other.