Lurker > Kirby321

ctesjbuvf posted...

It does give me pause thinking would scum death really go this hard on me.

But it could also just be an act to try to get the shot on me so

Yes. If last game is any indication, scum Death is one of the few B8 players that doesn't immediately fold when the odds look incredibly against him. Death will fight to the very end to convince people that he's town even when all evidence points to him.

That being said, it could also be town Death. But scum Death is absolutely capable of going this hard when he's cornered.

Meow1000 posted...

Basically Kirby if Death flips town you have at minimum hard town confirmed two scum members and possibly all three.

That isn't a "bridge to cross later", that should be immediate alarm bells.

You don't even know if there's three scum members left. You don't even know if there's two left!

Don't attack me when you're making assumptions that you have absolutely zero way to confirm. I'm working based off of information I have right now to estimate the best possible lynch, not trying to solve the entire damn game by making assumptions I can't possibly prove right now.

Meow1000 posted...

Kirby went from hard clearing a group of people for terrible reasons to hard clearing every single player in the game but you if Death flips town.

So I ask him, what exactly happens if Death does because he has absolutely no plan. I've long since stated how I feel Death flipping either way affects the game.

You answered your own question. If Death flips town, my PoE says it's MI, then, because everyone else would have a town case for them except for MI.

What happens afterward? We'll cross that bridge once we actually see some damn flips first. Don't tell me I don't have a plan when I very clearly stated how my reads will be affected by Death's flip.

IGCD, everybody posting fervently in this topic trying to convince you who to shoot either doesn't want you to shoot them and is trying to misdirect you (Death, MI) or has an insane ego (Ulti, Blade).

Please don't listen to them. It's white noise that will only distract you. Listen to the players who you think are town and have analyzed the game well. They're the ones who won't be biased. Please.

htaeD posted...

Okay Kirby you can accuse me of unfortunate cicrumstances. But I did not stoke that Ben kynch

You were the fourth vote on the Ben special, then everybody started voting Peaf, and then you switched your vote to Peaf.

You absolutely helped fan the flames that lead to EoD D4 with your vote on Ben. Don't deny that.

Meow1000 posted...

Ctes doesn't have to stop his vote according to his claim.

But he did so today. Nobody was suppressed yesterday.
Ergo, Ctes can only suppress his own vote. So if he's scum, then he has less control in MyLo than scum would ideally want.

Ctes is not a threat right now.

I think Ben is singlehandedly the worst shot possible out of IGCD's proposed ones. He's a claimed power who hasn't been using his powers in a scummy way. Aside from my episode of distrusting him, everyone he neighbored with had positive interactions with him. Killing him is the musings of insane people.

Ctes is also unlikely to be scum. He no longer has a vote today.

Ulti is our Cop. I already jailed the town Cop. Don't add salt on the wound by fucking shooting him.

The only thing Death has going for him is an inno scan. Being jailkept on an NK night and stoking the Ben special only to abandon it and jump back on Peaf at the end of D4 was also extremely scummy behavior that nobody thinks was a natural thought process for town.

And MI is just PoE.

It's abundantly clear who needs to die today.

I feel like until we get the flip from the shot, we're all just gonna be bickering without going anywhere. No offense, IGCD, but I don't see a point to drawing this out to the 24 hour mark. Shoot Death and let's start analyzing the game from his flip.

But if you need more time to consider your shot, I respect it.

Meow1000 posted...

Will once again reiterate though that if Ctes is scum and hasn't been stripping his own vote that FD essentially can't fit on the scumteam because there's no room to fit his action. We'd know the other two were vote stopper and bus driver.

Speaking of vote stopper, were actually in mylo today if IGCD shoots town and that role actually exists.

Well, Ctes can't vote today and nobody had their vote suppressed yesterday. So there's likely no vote stopper and Ctes is telling the truth.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I really dont think we have that Wall role, ctes, and a godfather. Occulams Razor says if there is a godfather it has to be ctes (he scanned innocent), but he already says he can scan guilty.

I dont think we have a godfather in this game. Especially if we have a third party that scans innocent. Its too much.

If there's a Godfather, it's Death. The guy who MZero breadcrumbed taunting on the night he died and the guy I jailed on a NK night.

That's too convenient to be a coincidence.

Oh nvm Lea edited the votals. Ctes can't vote today. That is confirmed.

Meow1000 posted...

Depends on if Ben tried to get Ctes to kill himself in the first place

Ctes testified that Ben was the one who brought up the idea to use Ctes' double vote to prove himself.

Also... I just remembered

I will fucking cry if we don't kill Death today.

We need to know if my jail stopped the kill last night or if Blade's save stopped it. The only way to resolve that is by killing Death.

This is absolutely insane that y'all are clamoring to not shoot Death. Dude has a mountain of evidence stacked against him in spite of the inno scan (which, may I remind you all, we still haven't flipped a Godfather so inno scans mean jack shit this late into the game)

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Because he doesn't want another shot out there to shoot scum.

But if scum Ben knows who town Ctes will bet on, he can just avoid killing the person Ctes thinks will die... and then Ctes just fucking dies as well. No vig shot left to consider aside from yours

Meow1000 posted...

...Why would I be talking about myself and not Ben/Ctes

Oh you weren't clear on what you meant

Ctes said something along the lines of "I thought IGCD would draw protection, and Ben agreed with me" I believe, so that would imply Ctes brought it up first.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Can we stop considering this

I mean my "omegalol" comment heavily implied it was a ridiculous notion

I just wanted to cover my bases since I'm sure some smartass would've said "but uh what if they no killed tho?????"

Meow1000 posted...

Out of curiosity who brought up the possibility of IGCD being saved first

... You?

Could've sworn you came in here fully insisting that it was your save that blocked the kill and not my jail before I even claimed my night action lol

changmas posted...

ben is not cleared. You dont think scum discussed whether IGCD would be protected?

Why does scum Ben persuade Ctes to go for the double vote instead of letting him follow your plan to kill himself

UltimaterializerX posted...

The bit about IGCD being alive is good, outside one thing. Someone else could have sent the kill in.

What does this even mean

There are exactly four possibilities for why NK happened last night.

1) Town IGCD was protected
2) Scum Death was roleblocked from killing
3) Town Death was protected (lol)
4) Scum decided to not kill (omegalol)

Either Death delivered the kill or he didn't. If he flips town, then duh, of course somebody else had to deliver the kill ffs

TotallyNotMI posted...

Kirby, this is not the first time you've posted something as if scum can't lie

Let's assume town-Ben and scum-Ctes.

Scum chat is certain that Kirby will be protected so they put a kill in on IGCD.
Ben says in neighbor chat 'oh yeah, I think IGCD will be protected'.
Scum ctes goes 'oh yeah totally I agree' while laughing to himself because he thinks man that is wrong and Ben is a fool only for that to backfire!

I mean let's be honest shooting IGCD would be a major faux pas, so odds are likelier that Death is scum and I blocked his kill

To me, the optimal path to take is shoot Death, lynch MI. Only then is it worthwhile to start questioning our power roles to see who is the dirty liar.

I think this game state is pretty easy to solve now

Unconditionally Town
Chang (vote control role, highly unlikely to be scum)
Kirby (blocked N1 kill and confirmed roleblock after scum roleblocker flip)
Ulti (roleblocked in a position where it makes sense for him to deliver the kill, but kill happened anyway)
FD (flavor meta is strongly in his favor)

Town Confirmed if Death is Town
Ben (could have avoided shooting IGCD)
Blade (protected IGCD)
Ctes (could have avoided shooting IGCD)
IGCD (would've been shot at)

No compelling reason to believe is town
MI

Jailkept on a NK night and is highly likely scum
Death

htaeD posted...

I mean Ctes already is clearly planning to never prove that he can shoot someone.

You make it sound like a town Ctes even has an easy choice to earn his shot lol

The odds are stacked against Ctes. Ben is 100% right. Ctes earning a double vote to clear himself is far valuable than Ctes just dying a pitiful offscreen death.

htaeD posted...

I forget, why does it confirm Ctes?

Ctes and Ben both openly admitted that they thought IGCD would draw protection. As such, the scum person in that pair would likely avoid shooting IGCD and instead go for protection like Blade or me.

If you flip town, however, that confirms scum tried to shoot IGCD. Scum Ben or scum Ctes wouldn't make that shot, given their neighbor chat. Therefore, Ben and Ctes are both cleared.

This falls through if both Ben and Ctes are scum, since they could retroactively fib about their neighbor chat, but I doubt both of them are scum. I doubt even more that scum Ben would neighborize his teammate instead of trying to manipulate town like Ulti or Blade.

ctesjbuvf posted...

And yes, shooting Death only to confirm IGCD wouldn't be the best. I described the worst case scenario in what I think is a shot on scum.

If you ask me, Death flipping town would confirm four people: Blade, IGCD, you, and Ben.

But nobody seemed to even give me the time of day when I pointed that out. We're at that point of the game where town has gone full-on delusional and won't listen to each other.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Because if youre town and dont trust the innocent scan, you need to verify the innocent scan actually exists first. Its Hempels Raven Paradox.

Excuse me? I basically have a guilty scan on Death. Why don't you trust the guy who already blocked a kill :P

IGCD, I trust you, but I don't trust MI, Ulti, or Death to pick the wisest options >_>

If you want my opinion, shoot Death. If he's scum, yay! If he's town, then you'll be town cleared and people will get off your back.

htaeD posted...

I dont think scum foregoes a kill alltogether to avoid Ctes getting a shot either, they could have shot someone like Kirby, Blade or even Ulti if he is town. Then either they get 2 dead town out of the deal or (in this case) just 1 and Ctes who looks bad the next day.

I completely agree. However, you do realize this argument makes you look even worse, right? lol

If scum believed Ctes would gamble his life away, letting IGCD live and hoping he'd shoot town would be extremely optimal.

Thus, it's likely IGCD wasn't shot at... which means the explanation for the NK is that you delivered the kill and I blocked you.

So I just realized something.

If Death flips town, that means IGCD was protected last night, yeah? Because my jail didn't stop the nightkill.

That would mean Ben and Ctes are highly unlikely to have exactly one scum between them. Think about it. Ben and Ctes both agreed that IGCD would likely draw protection last night, and that's information they shared with us, right?

Let's assume one of them is town and would have no reason to lie about that discussion. If the other was scum, they could have very easily directed the kill to someone else besides IGCD, knowing that he was very likely to be doc protected. However, if Death is town, we know IGCD was shot, which means scum Ben or scum Ctes didn't direct the shot somewhere else despite acknowledging that IGCD was the obvious doc target.

This means one of two things: either Ben and Ctes are both scum pulling theater (unlikely) or they're both town, contingent on Death flips town. If exactly one of them were scum, they wouldn't have shot at IGCD. Of course, if Death flips scum, none of that holds true, but who cares? We'd have dead scum.

I really think killing Death really is the optimal play here. We could potentially get three town clears off of his flip.

You know, Ulti, I'm very shocked that you're not appalled that MI, who you said is one of the best endgame solvers, sincerely believes that you're scum :P

Either he's right or you're a bloody hypocrite lol

I trust IGCD will make the right call here. Hoping to see some shots fired sooner than later, but I respect the wish to let everyone speak first before shooting.

I'd argue that the host would probably feel incredibly ashamed for including Evil Pierce instead of any of the other study group evil counterparts.

I say this as someone who has only seen a few episodes of Community out of context. But that is the impression I've been given by, not one, not two, but three different players who know the flavor way better than I do.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Oh. Well in that case you guys can continue down this weird hole I guess

One easy thing you can do right now is vote and see if your vote counts.

At this point, I think you're telling the truth, but might as well put to it to rest. I don't think scum would deliberately keep their vote locked down for the rest of the game.

Meow1000 posted...

Has a big hole in it Kirby wasn't blocking Ulti again, so why wouldn't he be the one sending the kill?

Tough question. One possibility is that, oh, I don't know ULTI IS FUCKING TOWN COP

Jfc

Maybe MI isn't scum with Death. But I'm getting all the more convinced that Death is scum regardless.

I'd support IGCD shooting Death. I think shooting Ulti is a collosal waste given that it's only Blade and MI screaming for his blood.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I legitimately truly believe MI would have scanned innocent and I second this. PLEASE do not shoot him. Im even willing to bite a bullet for the guy because hes a better endgame solver than me, plus it gets people laughing at Dull Butterknife over there.

You said that about Red last game when he was scum.

If MI is scum, then that's just prophetic in the most backwards way possible lmao

I like the Death + MI scum team theory a lot more than the Death + Red team Ben and I came up with. This game wasn't playing out like the last game at all, where Death and Red were both the last two scum.

I'm inclined to think there's just one scum left, and it's a Godfather that doesn't fear Cop. Like, by all logic, if scum had a redirect, Ulti should've been dead, because Cop threatens to expose any guilty-scanning teammates. But if there's only one scum left, those teammates are already dead.

And thus... I'm inclined to believe Death is scum here. Someone proposed that MZero breadcrumbed a Death taunt when MZero died, and with a NK happening when I jailed him, that'd be awfully coincidental if Death is town.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Evidently all the other actions have been revealed so you might as well say who you jailed. Thought there might have been a point to waiting and see if anyone TMI'd but oh well

So we've got a bit of an impasse here.

Blade protected IGCD. It would not be surprising if IGCD was indeed the target.

I jailed Death. It would also not be surprising if he delivered the kill.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Could you guys be a little more happy I didn't die. The proposed plan would have killed me with no benefit.

I think the double vote thing you and Ben discussed was a better idea by far. I guess in everyone's delusion and distrust of you, nobody even thought of that idea yesterday.

Good grief Blade if you could just stop obsessing over Ulti for just one day.

FD, I dunno why you want us to wait when Blade already mentioned that he protected IGCD, but let me know when I can reveal my night action.

htaeD posted...

Well excuse me but did you see the votespam that happened afterwards?

I only voted to counteract your vote and subsequently make a four-way tie :P

ctesjbuvf posted...

Yes, someone can easily ruin both ideas, but with one idea you still get to have say in the lynch.

Say who you want to lynch without fucking with the votals, then. It's not that hard.

Nobody else put down a vote please

ctesjbuvf posted...

How is this a more bulletproof plan

By letting IGCD be the only vote to break the tie? Let him get his vig shot ffs
Death ruined it by voting so now we got a mini shitshow brewing

ctesjbuvf posted...

I actually don't think IGCD choosing is a good idea.

We all chose the lynch, he can be the last vote sure.

But why do you want him to choose. Push for who you want to be lynched instead, he will literally jump on whoever.

Because people are gonna fuck it up and not let IGCD get his shot. We already saw what happened yesterday.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

If Red isn't tied with someone he is who I am voting.

Your wish is my command.
##Vote: Red

Oop didn't see Blade

##Unvote

##Unvote
##Vote: Death

I like ties, unlike a certain someone

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Votals please?

Red is at 3 votes with Death's recent vote
Ctes and MI are both at 2 votes
Death is at 1 vote