Lurker > MetalmindStats
LurkerFAQs, Active DB, DB1, DB2, DB3, Database 4 ( 07.23.2018-12.31.2018 ), DB5, DB6, DB7, DB8, DB9, DB10, DB11, DB12, Clear
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| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 34 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 9:51:25 PM #58 | Meta;Mario --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | The Show EP 10- Zelda/Cloud Upset Madness, Crono/MM Slugfest! w TPLink and MZero |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 9:43:01 PM #43 | LeonhartFour posted... So, what, are we saying 2013 Snake was just as strong if not stronger than 2013 Link? Oops, I should pay closer attention to what I'm implying. Anyways, I would at the very least say that Link 2010 > Link 2013 is an uncontroversial statement, and that alone would explain why Snake fared better. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | ~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!!*~ |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 9:17:22 PM #292 | The sad (or hilarious, depending on how you look at it) part about CHNW is that Cecil actually has some sort of strength, unlike Gordon in his day - he keeps falling just a bit short in these totally winnable matches, three character battles in a row now. Also, Yakuza's not actually a casual bait series. The series is a huge B8 favorite, which is a big part of why Kazuma and Goro proved to be so overseeded. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | ^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Princess - Day 17 |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 8:59:42 PM #27 | Vespa Leia Organa --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 34 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 8:57:15 PM #47 | Bowser;DK --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Best Series Ever II Mock Bracket |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 9:06:39 AM #19 | Final bump. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 32 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 9:05:44 AM #28 | Fox;Meta --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | The Show EP 10- Zelda/Cloud Upset Madness, Crono/MM Slugfest! w TPLink and MZero |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 8:51:34 AM #40 | I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that 2010 Cloud was weaker than 2013 Snake, along with 2013 Link probably being below 2010 Link. As for 2006, I think it's safe to say that was Link's best year. As such, I still contend that Snake is likely to perform one or two percentage points worse against a Nintendo character than versus a non-Nintendo character of the exact same strength. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 32 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 8:03:19 AM #19 | Bowser;DK --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 32 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 7:02:56 AM #10 | DK;Wolf --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 32 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 5:58:59 AM #4 | Kirby;Bowser --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 31 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 5:12:33 AM #78 | DK;Simon --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | The Show EP 10- Zelda/Cloud Upset Madness, Crono/MM Slugfest! w TPLink and MZero |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 4:34:37 AM #38 | I strongly disagree with the assertion that Mega Man came out of this contest looking pretty good overall. That Pikachu loss alone was ugly, given that an overwhelming majority of B8 picked Mega Man, plus the narrative of the turbocharged legends, prevalent as it was beforehand. It looks even worse when you consider that 2013 Mega Man practically beat Pikachu and Mega-Mewtwo combined, and there's no real reason he should have gotten weaker since considering he increased if anything from 2010 to 2013. Mega Man was also a widely-chosen pre-contest pick over Crono, and a decent minority even expected him to beat Cloud (myself included), and yet he lost to Crono's lack of relevance, and would have gotten crushed by Cloud even if he had somehow won. I wouldn't go as far as saying Mega Man is one of the overall turds of the contest, but to me, he's much closer to that end than he is to being a star. As for Crono, his history makes his results this contest look good, and yet I still feel something's lacking. It's just really surprising to me that he's so much weaker than his game, even though most main protagonists (who are actually the focus of their game/series) track nicely with their game/series in terms of strength. However, I guess it's possible that CT's entire mega-boost happened before 2013, which would make Crono looking static compared to 2013 fairly good. He's definitely closer to the star end of the spectrum than the turd end, I'll say that much, but I wasn't impressed, and I definitely can't see him being among the overall stars of the contest. Not that anyone argued that, to my knowledge, but still. Finally, I'm actually starting to think that there's something to the theory of Samus being Snake's kryptonite. Snake is already a bit worse off against Nintendo characters than against non-Nintendo characters due to the Smash series. Then you take pretty much the one Nintendo character who has significant quote-un-quote mature appeal, for lack of a better word, and it makes some sense that Snake would disproportionately suffer. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | ~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!!*~ |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 4:22:33 AM #234 | Ulti_PCA posted... We've seen this story from Sora before. In 2006, Sora was a 1 seed. He underperformed against Tingle and Gordon Freeman before getting demolished by Mega Man. In what universe is 46% on Mega Man 'getting demolished'? Unless you think Sora was supposed to boost from generic midcarder status to a Noble Nine breaker purely on account of KH2, that's an excellent result. For whatever reason, Sora is one of those characters who always underperforms against fodder before doing relatively better against stronger characters, and that was never the case more than in 2006. Also, characters below Shantae in the X-Stats I would take over her straight up: - Definitely: Dragonborn, Joker - Possibly: Noctis Lucis Caelum, Aya Brea, Metal Man, D.Va, Miles Edgeworth (who is almost certainly underrated in these stats due to SFF), Gordon Freeman, John Marston, Isabelle (also a possible victim of SFF) --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 31 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 4:10:57 AM #67 | DK;Pichu --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 31 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 4:04:42 AM #65 | update plz --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | ~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!!*~ |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 2:25:50 AM #227 | snake_5036 posted... I'd certainly take Isabelle, Joker, Dragonborn, Edgeworth, Godot, Gordon, D.Va, and some others over her if they ever got matched up. I can see the rest of the names you mentioned as possible winners against Shantae, to greater or lesser extents of likelihood, but what exactly has a third-tier side character from a highly niche franchise done to merit respect over the main character of a thriving indie franchise? And what kind of weirdness had to happen with those two results for Godot to win straight up despite faring only a bit better on a substantially weaker character? --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | ~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!!*~ |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 2:02:31 AM #218 | Ulti_PCA posted... MetalmindStats posted...While I won't deny that Shantae is fodder, what is your theory as to why she looks better than all those other characters in the X-Stats, even though you think she would lose to the likes of Quiet? Personally, I'm of the opinion that the X-Stats looking off compared to what you would expect in a direct match isn't something that happens for no reason. In this case, I would argue that Shantae's hardcore fanbase either knew they could vote for their girl without making Yoshi lose or (more likely) were just dedicated enough to vote for her practically regardless of her opponent. In contrast, someone like Dragonborn who essentially doesn't have hardcore fans had the misfortune of going up against a character who also has casual appeal, along with a legitimate fanbase of his own. John Marston faced the same problem, in addition to possible SFF (that we unfortunately have no way of confirming) from Kratos. To me, that's why Shantae looks stronger than those two even though I would take Dragonborn and probably John Marston over her in direct matchups. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 31 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 1:57:15 AM #54 | Incineroar;PPlant --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | ~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!!*~ |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 12:54:38 AM #214 | While I won't deny that Shantae is fodder, what is your theory as to why she looks better than all those other characters in the X-Stats, even though you think she would lose to the likes of Quiet? --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 31 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/15/18 12:51:37 AM #45 | Bowser;Meta --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 31 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 11:28:38 PM #29 | Kirby;Dog --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Best Series Ever II Mock Bracket |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 10:31:13 PM #18 | Evening bump. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1323 |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 10:29:20 PM #53 | snake_5036 posted... garetha200 posted...Smash 4 will also probably be decently strong because it is a Smash game I feel like the franchise name alone would ensure that Smash 4 isn't fodder, but probably not much beyond that. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Star of the contest, excluding Zelda? |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 10:24:26 PM #19 | Zen. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | ^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Princess - Day 16 |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 10:20:11 PM #44 | Anna Leia Organa --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 31 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 10:14:03 PM #16 | Kirby;Bowser --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | *~~SephG ranks the classic 2D console platformers~~* |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 9:51:35 PM #56 | I'm going to use my momentum to guess that (sadly), Yoshi's Island takes its leave here. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | What was your favorite result of the contest? |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 9:21:41 PM #4 | Mario/Samus I was probably my favorite result of the contest, mainly because it vindicated all those words I spent on my Analysis Crew guest write-up, when I had been so frequently off-base in my earlier write-ups. Actually getting the points for Mario's win was just an added bonus that helps its standing in my mind. Some honorable mentions include Alucard's run and Crash solidifying CHNW (Cecil Harvey Never Wins), along with the whole of Division 3 really. The highlights of other divisions for me were Geralt's run, Amaterasu demolishing Draven (thanks Captain_Sorzo for reminding me), and finally Garrus's win over Ramza, for (probably) being the single most fun match of the contest for me. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Disney Character X Round 6 [SMDC] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 8:55:37 PM #82 | EVE Frozone --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | ^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Princess - Day 16 |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 8:54:59 PM #19 | Vespa Rosalina --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 30 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 8:53:56 PM #55 | Bowser;Fox --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Best Series Ever II Mock Bracket |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 10:06:58 AM #17 | A third time. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 28 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 9:41:16 AM #65 | Meta;Ice --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1322 |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 9:14:43 AM #414 | BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Ryu has historically been one of the most consistant characters. MetalmindStats posted... And don't say "muh previous contests" Hmmm... To more properly address this, Ryu did not look good at all in his Round 1 or Round 3 matches. His result against Lloyd was barely ahead of Fox's 2010 percentage, and he failed to contend for a doubling on KOS-MOS after she looked off all contest. (And it's no wonder, given her lack of TJF this time around.) Ryu's only good performance before Sephiroth was against Shepard, and we all know what happened to him. As for why Chun-Li looked good despite all that, for one, I do think she's legitimately gotten stronger over the years, as her increase from something like 26% (as of 2002) to 43% against Ryu in the latest favorite Street Fighter character poll would indicate. I would also propose that voters take out their frustration over failed games/series disproportionately on their main character or other face of the series due to associating them most heavily with the state of the series in question, hence why Shepard looked on par with Garrus at best, and why Snake looked so much weaker than before. This would also explain why Ryu looked so off, given Street Fighter V. Also, that "leap in logic" that me and others are using to put Samus ahead of Mario indirectly is the same one that you're using to claim Ryu hasn't decreased, except we're at least conceding that things have changed in the past 10+ years - in this case, we're admitting that Mario's ability to pull hierarchy on Samus has weakened significantly (or at least I don't think I've seen anyone claim that Samus would score close to 60% on a neutral character of Mario's strength). Another point in favor of Samus being indirectly ahead of Mario - Samus scored over 56% on Snake, whose result against Zelda was very similar to Mario's. While I'll concede that late contest weirdness and limited transitivity contributed to that, you're calling for a practically unprecedented margin of weirdness by saying Samus isn't indirectly ahead of Mario given those results. Furthermore, SFF hierarchies weakening also dovetails nicely with that Tifa > Sephiroth result. It's also worth noting that putting Sephiroth about on par with Mega Man and Crono results in Yoshi scoring ~56% on Amaterasu and Bowser pulling about 57% on her, versus Luigi's 59% in 2010. Not a huge difference, yes, but I would not expect those Mario characters to move in the wrong direction in terms of strength compared to Amaterasu, given their recent relevance and her lack of it. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1322 |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 8:44:04 AM #410 | creativename posted... I mean, do you seriously think Sonic can beat Spider-Man or Darth Vader? I think theyd beat him easily. Well, you're talking about a character who might not be in the top 20 in terms of strength anymore versus likely two of the five strongest characters not to originate in video gaming. I would not be confident about Spider-Man or Darth Vader or even Batman beating Mega Man, for example. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | SND's Top 10 Moments of the 2018 Contest Season(Countdown) |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 8:41:48 AM #28 | SuperNiceDog posted... Everything he said in the post was true, and it resonated with many on the Board who love the contest so much. The contest was really really underwhelming up to that point, and SBAllen deserved a lot of the blame for why. That's not how I recall the reaction to Nanis's topic, nor does your opinion on the contest to date stand for everyone or even most people. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 28 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 8:34:35 AM #56 | Bowser;Pikachu --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | ~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!!*~ |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 7:38:22 AM #191 | Yeah, the SNES would smash every contender in a console contest. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 28 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 7:33:46 AM #46 | PPlant;KRool --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 28 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 5:12:36 AM #26 | Link;Kirby --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 28 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 4:03:06 AM #18 | Fox;Ike --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 28 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 2:53:25 AM #8 | Kirby;Bowser --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 27 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 2:16:28 AM #68 | Falco;Mario --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 10 |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 1:58:23 AM #412 | A huge part of why this contest season has been so fun for me is the Analysis Crew. Not just because of the opportunity to contribute for myself, but because of the Crew members (and Lopen) who really know their stuff. Having to do four write ups per day (before the break) is no mean feat, and yet all of you pulled it off with aplomb! So thank you to the Crew for making this contest what it's been, and I want to apologize on behalf of all the guests who didn't submit the write-ups they signed up for in time. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | itt we keep documenting Character Battle X (part 4: Archive Free or Die Hard) |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 1:42:35 AM #198 |     --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 27 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 1:13:37 AM #59 | Ness;Richter --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | ~Character Battle X Spread Betting~ Grand Finals: Link vs Cloud/Zelda |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 12:34:52 AM #11 | I made an awful lot of bad bets, enough that I would have to look back through them to determine my absolute worst one. I'm especially kicking myself for not playing it safe once I reached ~$400,000 or so banked. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Anyone interested in getting some bonus matches after the true contest final? |
| MetalmindStats 12/14/18 12:16:32 AM #28 | XIII_rocks posted... It should have value beyond "who would win between two random characters that didn't get a chance to face off in the bracket". It should be funny or have some kind of additional selling point. Agreed. As nice as it would be to see Cloud vs. Samus to settle some debates, bonus matches shouldn't just be extra matches for the sake of extra matches. That's why each of my choices, except for Link/Santa II, answers a discrete strength question among a symbolic grouping recognized beyond Board 8 - whether that's Round 1 losers, Noble Niners (with a whole contest built as a tribute to them, they've gained sitewide legitimacy as a concept), or non-Nintendo characters. --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
| Topic | Save My Smash Bro: Day 27 [smsb] [24/7] |
| MetalmindStats 12/13/18 11:44:44 PM #46 | Bowser;Link --- Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser! You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done! |
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