Lurker > Wanglicious

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://t.co/gsdM6eOnX6

Surveillance video of Jeffrey Epsteins cell during suicide attempt was destroyed: prosecutors

Oh boy

also don't want this buried underneath plane stuff.
i mean it's funny but in a "of course it was" way.

so we've gone from the video is missing to found the video to WHOOPS was the wrong video and the original is destroyed; the backup hasn't been working since August 2019 either, which happens to be the same month Epstein died and is shortly after his attempt. technology just can't work with him. the man was a blackmailer who filmed everything but video just can't seem to capture him.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

they were yeah. honestly any of the big sites often are misleading like that. in this case, Newsweek broke their US official, FT had the Ukraine official, so went with them.

but this blew up everywhere after Newsweek and should escalate further as it seems everyone is leaning towards Iran shooting down a civilian plane. and if the bit about finding missile parts is true, that's not something they can ignore. this won't spawn any war but it will push the rest of the world to pressure Iran more on various issues.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

oh, fox article is a good one instead of needing both. and it gets into more on the missile.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrainian-airplane-shot-down-by-mistake-by-iranian-anti-aircraft-missile-pentagon-officials-believe

The U.S. official told Fox News that a Russian-made SA15 missile, which is part of the Tor surface-to-air missile system, was the kind that brought down the aircraft. Russia delivered 29 Tor-M1 systems to Iran in 2007 as part of a $700 million contract signed in December 2005. Iran has displayed the missiles in military parades as well.

"A strike by a missile, possibly a Tor missile system, is among the main (theories), as information has surfaced on the internet about elements of a missile being found near the site of the crash," Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine's Security Council, told Ukrainian media earlier. He did not elaborate on where he saw the information.

and to reiterate, foreign deaths go Canada (60-65), Ukraine (11), UK (3), Germany (3), and Sweden (4?).


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

aaand... there we go.
https://www.ft.com/content/86a31a6c-32d1-11ea-9703-eea0cae3f0de

Western intelligence officials believe a passenger aircraft that crashed in Iran killing 176 people was mistakenly brought down by an Iranian anti-aircraft missile.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he feared something very terrible happened to the Kyiv-bound Ukrainian aircraft, after multiple media reports that it had been struck by a missile. The aircraft crashed shortly after it took off from Tehran on Wednesday, hours after Iran launched missiles at American forces in neighbouring Iraq.

Speaking from the White House, Mr Trump said: It is a tragic thing. Somebody could have made a mistake. The other side could have made a mistake.

Not our system, it has nothing to do with us, Mr Trump said. It was flying in a pretty rough neighbourhood and somebody could have made a mistake . . . I have a feeling something very terrible happened, very devastating.

The UK government also said it was very concerned by the reports that the aircraft could have been brought down by a missile.

A person close to Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraines president, told the FT that both US and Ukrainian officials suspect some form of external catastrophic event brought down the plane, either a bomb or a missile.

Iran's trying to use the same "it'd have exploded!" excuse but honestly that depends on the missile and where it hits. they're also trying the whole "maybe it crashed with a drone!" but that ain't the usual flight level of a drone.

Iran has denied the plane was hit by a missile. Hassan Rezaeifar, head of the investigation committee of the Iran Civil Aviation Organisation, said the plane was trying to return to the airport, which meant it could not have been struck by a missile. He did not provide details, but added that the aircraft would have exploded immediately if it was struck by a missile.

but then we look to Newsweek and their info too.
https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot-down-ukraine-flight-mistake-sources-1481313

The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek. None of the officials was authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, a Boeing 737800 en route from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airpot to Kyiv's Boryspil International Airport, stopped transmitting data Tuesday just minutes after takeoff and not long after Iran launched missiles at military bases housing U.S. and allied forces in neighboring Iraq. The aircraft is believed to have been struck by a Russia-built Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile system, known to NATO as Gauntlet, the three officials told Newsweek.

One Pentagon and one U.S. senior intelligence official told Newsweek that the Pentagon's assessment is that the incident was accidental. Iran's anti-aircraft systems were likely active following the country's missile attack, which came in response to the U.S. killing last week of Revolutionary Guard Quds Force commander Major General Qassem Soleimani, sources said.

and it looks like Ukraine is agreeing with the missile idea.

Images began to circulate Wednesday of what appeared to be fragments of a Tor M-1 missile said to have been found in a suburb southwest of Tehran. Ukraine Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danylov said Thursday in a statement that contact with a Tor M-1 system was among the potential causes for the plane's destruction that his country was looking into as Ukrainian and Iranian officials met.

Other potential scenarios involved a collision with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or another flying object, technical malfunction and a terrorist attack.

so yeah, there we go.
they fucked up.
technically true though, it was an engine failure! because both got wrecked when it got shot.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

more info on the plane...

• Iran refusing to give anyone the black box, including the US, Ukraine, and Boeing
• not the same model as the Boeing one that crashed last year
• Iran is blaming engine failure
• pilot had over 11,000 hours on a Boeing 757, half of which was as a captain
• plane was just serviced the day before and was only 3 years old
• the plane just cut location data when in the air before crashing

this ain't looking pretty for Iran. mechanical failure seems unlikely considering it was being maintained and data should continue if any failure there is detected. the plane was young but in good service, was just checked, the engine being a well known and commonly used one too. the pilot has a ton of experience so user error should be at a minimum. everything was normal on radar (e.g., travel speed, travel distance) up until it cut data. so what made it randomly disappear and then crash?

Iran immediately declared it as a malfunction within an hour or two - this shouldn't be possible to tell. they tried to play up the number of Iranians by including the Canadian ones as some probably had dual citizenship. this is very convenient of them considering they specifically don't count dual nationality with Canada and the two haven't been on good terms for years, so much so that Canada doesn't have an embassy or any diplomats with them.

black box should be able to help with this but if Iran's not willing to hand that over, well...

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

considering how heavily anti-war most of his base is, no it would not. he goes to war, he loses.
fortunately for him he doesn't need to go to war due to the fact that the legislature has given the executive broad military power that lets him wreck a place without a single declaration needed. a power that bush enjoyed a lot, obama enjoyed even more with minimal scrutiny, and now trump is enjoying with (fortunately) a lot of it. and keep in mind, they like giving the executive broad power. i'll once again point out that, as the house impeached trump, they extended the patriot act. if they wanted to reign in his power they've had every chance to do so but refuse to.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

so the numbers of deaths are a bit mixed right now. early reports suggest the overwhelming majority were Iranians and Canadian students that were on break. still need more verification of that.
there's a bunch of reports going "Reuters said..." but that's all a lie, it's "Reuters reporting that Iranian state media said..."

right now they're saying malfunction. Ukraine investigating, can't find a source confirming initial claim so not attributing any.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

not only are they common, this area recently had one within the past two weeks. pretty normal.
but that ain't gonna stop qanon lore.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Protect me, Board 8ers
Don't let these heathens cast their votes
Don't let their pick kings, huns, thieves or fish
Destroy all the options
And let them fight for second best!
And go make first be mine and mine alone


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

earthquake, absolutely, yes. pretty well set for a conspiracy theory since you've got the attack on US bases, the 4.9 earthquake was near a nuclear power plant, and the US probably could generate a force similar to that, though to the best of our knowledge it'd have to be dropped. but who knows what's been blackbox'd since that treaty in the 70s, so insert Q Anon stuff here.

plane crash, depends.
i don't think iran wants to claim ownership for that one and are better off claiming it was "other forces" or a malfunction.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Jakyl25 posted...

Id be more likely to believe we can actually cause earthquakes

i was joking about this with some friends then decided to look it up.
answer is probably not in any way we'd define earthquake. though we do have this which is currently being actively researched:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_Ordnance_Penetrator

also note that research on earthquake or tsunami bombs has been going on since WW2 and there's a treaty in the late 70s that specifically targets tectonic weapons, so it's a very real thing, especially since released documents do show that they've been considered viable for at least 20 years now.

it's also the basis of conspiracy theories around tsunamis and earthquakes in the past, though i think those mostly run the idea of nuclear tests and there's never any proof. also note if you scale it further to nuclear weapons, this one does exist and is the biggest project that we're publicly aware of:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B61_nuclear_bomb#Mod_12

which would be, if the mainland ever gets hit, likely be among the first weapons to be deployed if we're serious. we can pinpoint the target within 30 meters and adjust the payload massively. still is the weapon i'd keep my eye on the most because it continues to be a terrifying breakthrough in military weaponry.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

yeah, it's in that awkward timing of everything.

Iran missile strikes. situation unknown.

a Ukraine-bound plane with 180 passengers fell, killing all of them. the cause is very unclear right now. there are some reports that this was accidentally shot down by an Iranian missile but this is unconfirmed. for their sake, hope it's a fake report because that means they killed 180 civilians from who knows how many countries.

2 earthquakes.

all in the span of 1 night and it ain't even midnight yet.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1214754564089548801

What the fuck is even happening
Is this a coincidence? Accident caused by extra chaos maybe?

and to top this, apparently Iran has just suffered 2 earthquakes in the past 2 hours.
5.5 and 4.9.

i don't understand either.
weird as fuck.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

in fact there's an easy answer: this is January 2016.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/poll-trump-leads-when-it-comes-second-choice-cruz-top

39% of Trump voters would've gone to Cruz.

or we can look at April, when head to head matchups started getting considered, to see how Cruz voters would've gone. answer: Trump.

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/2016-republican-poll-trump-cruz-kasich-221111

this isn't a debate. Cruz would've had over 40% of the vote without Trump in a field of 6 and would've won the nom without him, that's just straight fact. if you think Biden is inevitable now, imagine him with an extra 10 points - that is what Trump stopped.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Difference is Republican primaries are winner takes it all.

quite a few aren't so no, this isn't it either. that includes all the early ones.
trump just held a very, very consistent figure.

Corrik7 posted...

I don't think he would have won the nomination if not for Trump. Trump supporters are very anti-Cruz. He just took all the voters that would have went elsewhere other than Cruz. Cruz wins the south. Loses basically everywhere else.

who else would they have gone to? Rubio? they hate him more. Kasich? probably would've gotten some in the more left leaning ones like New Hampshire.
know where that significant anti-establishment vote would've gone? to the guy who was clearly anti-establishment. Cruz outright won Iowa, without Trump he would've still lost New Hampshire but would've won South Carolina, Nevada, and the vast majority of other states. here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#End_of_2015:_the_field_stabilizes,_six_candidates_gain_traction

not only would Cruz have won he would've won handily without Trump, that base ain't touching Rubio.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

how was it one? you had a field of 17 or so candidates with him being the joke candidate to start but he gradually got a very, very sticky amount of support. when Iowa happened he was around 24%, barely more than Rubio, a bit behind Cruz. after that point he consistently stuck with around 33%, sometimes a lot higher, sometimes a lot lower, but overall that was the amount he could get.

which, in a field of 5-6 or so candidates, is significant enough to win. he didn't have a landslide victory he won by just having a really sticky plurality. it's what biden is successfully doing (with an even greater margin, though easier to lose voters) and what bernie is trying to do (smaller margin but very, very sticky support).

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

right, you're firmly in the camp of it's either Bernie's plan/a minor tweak of it or nothing. problem is that as a term M4A is getting xerox'd or google'd right now. if your idea is wanting to cover everyone your options are 1) massive overhaul of the system (e.g., remove private insurance), 2) various in between plans (more Australian model in Tulsi, Pete/Warren share a similar in between), 3) expand what's currently there (Biden), or 4) targeting specific industries in the system (Yang).

bear in mind, i already know you don't like Yang's plan. as you phrased it it gave you "big yikes." of the options though, def is my favorite due to its focus as it'd completely change the industry and evolve it within two generations while creating the smallest fallout.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

if your position of M4A necessitates the removal of the private industry like Bernie's asking for, then no, he's not.
if it's more conceptual and running off the ideas behind it then yes, it is. it targets specifics remarkably well.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

is this "lie" going to be some guy with a mic on youtube talking about M4A...
...yep, it is.

yang's approach to healthcare is entirely different, it's an interesting long-game option that focuses on industry specifics. cut down RX costs with the option of the US actually making generics, new licensing for doctors, changing the way doctors are paid to salary instead of per use, standardizing payment systems, loan forgiveness to any who become a primary care doctor...

when you add up all the specific things he's going for you end up with a system where, even with private insurance, doctors get paid the same way, can work anywhere in the country (very important for telehealth advancements), have a similar payment system, drug costs are going to be mostly the same nationally, and despite these changes you'll have a supply of doctors since their loans are forgiven.

all together this ain't that far from a government run insurance since the backend is now heavily government regulated, meaning it's a pretty quick hop that only messes with specific industries. def one of the more creative ideas and absolutely not Bernie's M4A plan since it likes the existence of private insurance, it just ropes in private companies and private practices.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Jakyl25 posted...

Is there no action between standing idly by and assassination?

By this logic, a lot of countries have the right to attack us

if you're dealing with a major terrorist, honestly no. the best you can get is "capture and try" as an in-between, which could serve some diplomatic use, though does have certain obvious risks to it since he's alive. when they've been at it for over a decade... i wouldn't expect any reform done. and should he die in captivity, it's worse. unless there's value in having him as a defacto hostage, a terrorist is better dead than captive.

and honestly a lot of countries definitely would have a fair claim to attack the US.
thing is if they attack we've got a fair claim to hit back, which is what we did here. thing is we hit a lot harder so it ends up being a terrible idea to try.

Jakyl25 posted...

Corrik what are your thoughts on Trump threatening cultural sites?

i ain't corrik but is this related to trump's 52 target tweet? do we know what those may be or are we guessing?

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

iran will not publicly back down from anything.
privately is an entirely different story. this will be a very two-faced conflict from both the US and Iran so take any media coverage, especially directly tied to government statements, with a grain of salt. military is the only place iran's budget has focused on so any prolonged conflict with us doesn't just hurt their power but is a massive hit to their economy, which is already in shambles due to the sanctions. losing military might as well be losing years of the only place they put money into with no way of getting it back or getting any benefit from it.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

this is one of those things i don't get much point to arguing over.

if you're convinced we went into iraq for oil or to sell what we got (or both) there ain't much changing your mind at this point. if you think we had a legitimate reason you're not gonna be convinced otherwise either. end of the day we're still there and clearly didn't care about what would happen to the region.

(we totally went for oil, selling private militias, and selling arms.)

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

and for some twitter threads:

former US-Israel ambassador:
https://twitter.com/DanielBShapiro/status/1212983781197529088

a journo who said ambassador gave a nod to in saying it was a good thread:
https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1212913366492016640

and another thread he linked to that's significantly less alarmist and does point out that there's quite a bit of joy on this guy's death in that region too:
https://twitter.com/KimGhattas/status/1212976875074662400

should sum up where we are now on what should be known.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

anyway, article on current situation that fills in some details. how factual they are, well, keep in mind it's governments talking.

https://apnews.com/5597ff0f046a67805cc233d5933a53ed

The targeted killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Irans elite Quds Force, could draw forceful Iranian retaliation against American interests in the region and spiral into a far larger conflict between the U.S. and Iran, endangering U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria and beyond.
The Defense Department said it killed Soleimani because he was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region. It also accused Soleimani of approving the attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad earlier this week.
Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that a harsh retaliation is waiting for the U.S.

as for an idea of who this guy is (again, note that these are statements ultimately coming from both governments):

As the head of the Quds, or Jersualem, Force of Irans paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, Soleimani led all of its expeditionary forces and frequently shuttled between Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. Quds Force members have deployed into Syrias long war to support President Bashar Assad, as well as into Iraq in the wake of the 2003 U.S. invasion that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, a longtime foe of Tehran.
Soleimani rose to prominence by advising forces fighting the Islamic State group in Iraq and in Syria on behalf of the embattled Assad.
U.S. officials say the Guard under Soleimani taught Iraqi militants how to manufacture and use especially deadly roadside bombs against U.S. troops after the invasion of Iraq. Iran has denied that. Soleimani himself remains popular among many Iranians, who see him as a selfless hero fighting Irans enemies abroad.

...so basically a massive thorn to everyone outside of Iran.
the DoD should cough up some proof of their claims but who knows if they will. if it's true they'll have full justification for acting without Congressional approval.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

well yeah we really went there for oil.
but the claim at the time was "9/11, terrorism, WMDs!" so away we went. we saw dollars over the start of massive destabilization and making countries into much greater powers than they should ever be.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

MoogleKupo141 posted...

what did Iran have to do with 9/11?

directly, nothing.
the problem is we ignored them when we shouldn't have, even back then.

we went into Afghanistan as a result of 9/11 ignoring them, then went into Iraq as a result of 9/11 ignoring them, and the recently released documents of that time period indicated that Iran wanted to gain more power in that region, that we knew Iran would gain more power in that region if we went there, but we just moseyed along without caring about what a dumb idea that is despite it being extremely clear to being a dumb idea.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

i mean we've learned to not ignore Iran.
this situation has direct links back to 9/11 of doing just that.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

yeah, iran will retailate but that'll be in the form of messing around in the middle east some more, in ways that we don't have much control or knowledge of.

mind you, there's a valid question to "aren't they doing that anyway?" and there's a valid statement that without this commander it cripples them, tactically. on both fronts this ends up being quite non consequential. but there's also no way of knowing exactly how this escalates beyond that. will they declare war, of course not. why declare war when you can use your military without that or, better yet, use "non military forces" instead?

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

mm... if we're going back to political alignments, while most here do go left (some very hard left, and no i'm not including Cyclo who is kind of in his own category) there do seem to be a couple who fit a more left to center/left take (SEP, Hero, LOTM, maybe red). but maybe i'm just ignorant.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

well yeah, the GND isn't about energy and climate first and foremost as much as it's economic shifts and changes. personally i see someone considering nuclear as somebody primarily trying to solve the actual problems and someone ignoring it as somebody primarily trying to solve other ones.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

i tend to hit center left on compass tests so i can just use myself there. though there's a few people who seem like they do too, though i'm probably lower on authoritarian/libertarian scale as i live in that left-lib quadrant.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Yang raised 16.5 which was a pretty nice increase from the 10M he raised in Q3, but I'm pretty sure Bernie will dominate the headlines with that haul.

you misspelled "Pete" with "Bernie" there, his 24 mil is really impressive!
maybe Warren even since it seems Obama's pushing her as what looks like his compromise candidate - not Biden, not Bernie.

unrelated to the above, i had no idea that nuclear was an issue that had united support by the left, center, and right in this topic.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.