Lurker > MetalmindStats

Kirby
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Captain Jack Sparrow
Mr. Incredible
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Round 3:

Divison 1
(1) Dante (Devil May Cry)
(2) Auron (Final Fantasy X)

Division 2
(1) Sora (Kingdom Hearts)
(6) Captain Toad (Super Mario Galaxy)

Division 3
(1) Geralt (The Witcher)
(3) Yuna (Final Fantasy X)

Divison 4
(1) 2B (Nier Automata)
(2) Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)

Division 5
(1) Kratos (God of War)
(2) Tidus (Final Fantasy X)

Division 6
(1) Vivi (Final Fantasy IX)
(3) Midna (Legend of Zelda Twilight Princess)

Division 7
(1) Amaterasu (Okami)
(2) Bayonetta

Division 8
(8) Shadow (Sonic Adventure 2)
(7) Isaac (Golden Sun)

Round 4:

(2) Auron (Final Fantasy X)
(1) Sora (Kingdom Hearts)
(1) Geralt (The Witcher)
(1) 2B (Nier Automata)
(1) Kratos (God of War)
(1) Vivi (Final Fantasy IX)
(1) Amaterasu (Okami)
(8) Shadow (Sonic Adventure 2)

Post-Divisional:

(2) Auron (Final Fantasy X)
(1) 2B (Nier Automata)
(1) Vivi (Final Fantasy IX)
(1) Amaterasu (Okami)

(2) Auron (Final Fantasy X)
(1) Vivi (Final Fantasy IX)

(1) Vivi (Final Fantasy IX)

I don't feel like making any detailed comments, so I'll just say that any bracket where Captain Toad can realistically make Round 4 has some sort of intrinsic value.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Round 1 Predictions:

Divison 1
(1) Dante (Devil May Cry)
(9) Shantae
(5) Ezio (Assassin's Creed)
(4) Ike (Fire Emblem)
(3) GlaDOS (Portal)
(6) Shovel Knight
(7) Velvet Crowe (Tales of Berseria)
(2) Auron (Final Fantasy X)

Division 2
(1) Sora (Kingdom Hearts)
(8) Nikko Bellic (GTA 4)
(5) Lucina (Fire Emblem)
(4) Waluigi (Mario Tennis)
(3) Joel (The Last of Us)
(6) Captain Toad (Super Mario Galaxy)
(10) Quiet (Metal Gear Solid V)
(2) Commander Shepard (Mass Effect)

Division 3
(1) Geralt (The Witcher)
(8) Dragonborn (Skyrim)
(5) Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2)
(4) Zidane Tribal (FF IX)
(3) Yuna (Final Fantasy X)
(11) Viewtiful Joe
(7) Revan (Star Wars: KOTOR)
(2) Nathan Drake (Uncharted)

Divison 4
(1) 2B (Nier Automata)
(9) Roy (Fire Emblem)
(12) King of All Cosmos (Katamari Damacy)
(4) Rosalina (Super Mario Galaxy)
(3) Garrus Vakarian (Mass Effect)
(11) Captain Olimar (Pikmin)
(10) Lucas (Mother 3)
(2) Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)

Division 5
(1) Kratos (God of War)
(9) Sly Cooper
(5) Shulk (Xenoblade Chronicles)
(4) Riku (Kingdom Hearts)
(3) The Boss (Metal Gear Solid 3)
(11) Jecht (Final Fantasy X)
(7) Yuri Lowell (Tales of Vesperia)
(2) Tidus (Final Fantasy X)

Division 6
(1) Vivi (Final Fantasy IX)
(8) Vyse (Skies of Arcadia)
(12) Isabelle (Animal Crossing New Leaf)
(4) Lloyd Irving (Tales of Symphonia)
(3) Midna (Legend of Zelda Twilight Princess)
(11) Tom Nook (Animal Crossing)
(7) Ratchet
(2) Chrom (Fire Emblem)

Division 7
(1) Amaterasu (Okami)
(9) Miles Edgeworth (Ace Attorney)
(5) Rikku (Final Fantasy X)
(13) Solaire of Astora (Dark Souls)
(3) Lightning (Final Fantasy XIII)
(6) Big Daddy (Bioshock)
(7) Jak
(2) Bayonetta

Division 8
(1) Master Chief (Halo)
(8) Shadow (Sonic Adventure 2)
(5) Tommy Vercetti (GTA Vice City)
(4) Ellie (The Last of Us)
(3) Arthur Morgan (Red Dead Redemption 2)
(6) Baltheir Bunansa (Final Fantasy XII)
(7) Isaac (Golden Sun)
(2) Joker (Persona 5)

Round 2:

Divison 1
(1) Dante (Devil May Cry)
(4) Ike (Fire Emblem)
(3) GlaDOS (Portal)
(2) Auron (Final Fantasy X)

Division 2
(1) Sora (Kingdom Hearts)
(4) Waluigi (Mario Tennis)
(6) Captain Toad (Super Mario Galaxy)
(2) Commander Shepard (Mass Effect)

Division 3
(1) Geralt (The Witcher)
(4) Zidane Tribal (FF IX)
(3) Yuna (Final Fantasy X)
(7) Revan (Star Wars: KOTOR)

Divison 4
(1) 2B (Nier Automata)
(4) Rosalina (Super Mario Galaxy)
(3) Garrus Vakarian (Mass Effect)
(2) Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)

Division 5
(1) Kratos (God of War)
(5) Shulk (Xenoblade Chronicles)
(11) Jecht (Final Fantasy X)
(2) Tidus (Final Fantasy X)

Division 6
(1) Vivi (Final Fantasy IX)
(4) Lloyd Irving (Tales of Symphonia)
(3) Midna (Legend of Zelda Twilight Princess)
(7) Ratchet

Division 7
(1) Amaterasu (Okami)
(5) Rikku (Final Fantasy X)
(3) Lightning (Final Fantasy XIII)
(2) Bayonetta

Division 8
(8) Shadow (Sonic Adventure 2)
(4) Ellie (The Last of Us)
(6) Baltheir Bunansa (Final Fantasy XII)
(7) Isaac (Golden Sun)

Rounds 3 and on in my next post.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Just a few more hours remain for anyone who hasn't posted their Midcarder ranking yet and who wants to get caught up, rather than having to tackle it along with the Lower Midcarders.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

MetalmindStats posted...

Kirby

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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Link versus Cloud posted...

Draven won the contest as a 3-seed.

True. However, Safer only asked for the furthest runs in contests with 16 seeds per division.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Amendment to my previous statement: it was actually Round 5 that Sephiroth reached in 2002.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Kirby
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

GavsEvans123 posted...

Touch Fuzzy, Get Dizzy (Yoshi's Island)

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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Whew!

DK
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Dk
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Haste_2 posted...

Is Day 5 coming?

Yes, I'll be posting it sometime this evening (PT). See the second post for our schedule through the 26th.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

In Brawl, it was the torch. From Smash 4 onwards, my favorite has been Bowser's dropkick.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

That would be an interesting comparison to have, but no, I don't think it's conveniently written anywhere.

As far as I can remember (though I'm probably missing some):
- a 3-seed has reached Round 6 (Melee, 2015)
- a 4-seed has won in Round 4 (Ganondorf, Bowser, and Zelda, 2018)
- a 5-seed has reached Round 4 (Scorpion, 2002)
- a 6-seed has won a contest (Undertale, 2015)
- a 7-seed has reached Round 5 (Charizard, 2010)
- an 8-seed has reached Round 4 (Pokmon RBY, 2015)
- a 9-seed has reached Round 6 (Super Mario RPG, 2015)
- a 10-seed has reached Round 4 (Zelda and Tifa, 2010)
- an 11-seed has reached Round 3 (Aerith, multiple times + Fox, 2018)
- a 12-seed has reached Round 3 (Sonic 2, 2015)
- a 13-seed has reached Round 3 (Sub-Zero and MissingNo., 2010 + Chrono Cross, 2015 + Tails and Wario, 2018)
- a 14-seed has reached Round 3 (Jecht, 2010 + Donkey Kong Country 2, 2015)
- a 15-seed has reached Round 4 (Aerith, 2018)
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Kirby
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Bowser
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Kirby
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

I took guitar lessons many years ago, but they never stuck.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Huh, I totally forgot about that match. That's truly a stunning result that foreshadowed much of the success Pokmon entrants saw from 2010-2015, so I really see why you ranked this one so highly.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

I've officially sent my gift!
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

DK. He's bigger, faster, and stronger, too!
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

DK. He's the leader of the bunch.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Morning bump.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Also, if Link gets 50%, X gets 27%, and Ryu gets 23% in such a hypothetical match (based on X's ratio with Ryu in the actual 2013 match, adjusted a bit for SFF), Link pulls 68.5% against Ryu directly (before accounting for X's votes). For comparison's sake, he only managed 73% directly against Raiden in their 2013 match (before accounting for Yoshi's votes).

In contrast, a scenario where Link scores 45%, X scores 30%, and Ryu scores 25% puts Link at about 64.5% against Ryu directly (again, before accounting for X's votes). The truth is likely somewhere in between, which underscores just how weak the Link of 2013's first two rounds was.

Of course, this math changes if you assume Link substantially SFFs X, though he only managed minor SFF, if any, in 2010.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

I'm kicking myself for not predicting that one, and I was practically from the moment I finalized my predictions.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

MetalmindStats posted...

MetalmindStats posted...

Bowser

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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

transience posted...

I wouldn't go that high. Link only got 60% on Raiden and SFF'd Yoshi.

I think the disagreement is because Yo's using current Link, while you're taking 2013 Link. Given that, (2013) Link getting 45% in Draven's place seems about right to me.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

MetalmindStats posted...

Bowser

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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Bowser
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

NFUN posted...

The Man With No Name

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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

I meant to touch on the changed match start time, too.

I really think some of us are overstating the role of an early evening match start (in the US) in killing trends. The truth is that, with the explosion of mobile phones, most people will pretty much vote when they want to regardless, and that alone has been by far the biggest cause of the sad death of trends. Next on the list, in my opinion at least, has been the remainder of GameFAQs' userbase aging and thus becoming more set in their tastes, as the Halo fans and the like have mostly departed. I would merely put the start time at a distant third, playing a minor role in securing the demise of trends. To me, the best start time given this is that which allows the largest portion of users to get their votes in within the first hour or so, which would be something like 2 PM PT.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

MetalmindStats posted...

MetalmindStats posted...

Kirby

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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

My thoughts about 40 minutes in:

On reflection, the biggest highlight of this contest for me was definitely that night I had the very special privilege of guest-starring on The Show along with greatone. If it has to be something more general, though, I guess I could just say the Board 8 community, which would also encompass things like Zen (CBX MVP) and his wonderful gifs. Also, it's not really related to anything else in this post, but poor Kleenex... The only Crew member Ng didn't mention.

As for my thoughts on CBX's format changes:

First off, I really like the format of multiple simultaneous 24-hour matches per day for most of the contest. It's the biggest element in allowing us to get through suitably large brackets without seeing them drag on unnecessarily, while also avoiding the 12-hour disadvantage of skewing results and practically leaving some time zones out. One thing I would say is that the middle rounds (3 and 4) don't need to fly by so quickly. To me, it just doesn't give enough respect to the third and fourth-round characters to hold their own, and I don't like the idea of having multiple divisions' worth of matches in one day. For CBX in particular, though, I felt that this quickened pace was reasonable because of the legends and losers brackets. In future contests without legends and losers brackets, though, I would rather see rounds 3 and 4 elongated a bit. I would reduce round 3 from four to two matches per day and round 4 from two to one match per day, which would produce a 47-day 1v1 bracket with 128 entrants (without legends/losers), versus 39 days with the current format (or 31 versus 23 for a 64-entrant bracket, such as a potential Series II).

Second, and somewhat related, I do like the idea of standardizing early-round match pictures, but for the future, Allen should call on the picsmiths among us to produce the best and fairest possible standardized renders. Having anime schoolboy Joker versus constipated Claire just wasn't right, and that's before getting to the poorly photoshopped pics with obvious artifacts. In my perfect world, a future character battle would have CBX-style standardized pictures for rounds 1 and 2, one match per day of sprites and one match per day of models in round 3 (because I like the sprite round and I really like the idea of characters looking as they do in-game, but I also want to consider fairness), and fairly freeform user-created pictures from round 4 on.

I'm rather positive on registered users gaining double votes. That artificial votal bump does feel nice, and it's a good way to encourage people to register and start engaging more fully with GameFAQs, as well as diluting rallies. I can't think of any major negatives - the registered bonus just isn't something I would mourn too much if it went.

As for forcing people to vote in every match, I tend to agree with the consensus that it's good in character battles and the like, but shouldn't be kept for a GotD II, for example, for the reasons you all stated already (side note: I highly doubt FTL makes such a field - it's not a GameFAQs type of game at all, and not a B8 favorite either). I also disagree with the assertion that this is any sort of effective counter to rallies, excepting the unique situation of Just Monika of course. Even in a match like Undertale vs. Mass Effect 3, the ralliers are just going to redouble their efforts if they're not on pace to win.

Finally, I still think the break was a good idea due to the holidays, but it did kill a lot of CBX's momentum, which was reflected in a permanent votal decrease. What I would do instead is both make the break shorter (Thanksgiving Thursday-Sunday would have sufficed) and continue with bonus matches on the break days, so as to help casual visitors realize there's still a contest going on.

Also Advokaiser, you've been doing great so far! Don't fret about your voice. I bet many of us don't like the way our voices sound to others either - I know I don't!
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

MetalmindStats posted...

Kirby

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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Kirby
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Richter;Joker
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

DK;Kirby
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Kirby;DK
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

There's a lot of people who don't like Luigi's characterization as a coward and "slippery", for lack of a better word. I, too, wish Luigi could be closer to Mario in strength!

(Edit): I also agree with what Ange said.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Man, I'm hyped. Also, thank you for the shoutouts on my series bracket and my ranking project. It really means a lot to me that you listed them right up there with greatone's bracket and transience's project,
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Tom (Tom and Jerry)
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

MetalmindStats posted...

Kirby;Bowser

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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Pyoro or bust!
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Deadpool
Doomguy (Doom)
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

@Anagram, you forgot Knuckles and Kratos!
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

HaRRicH posted...

Shonen_Bat posted...

Way to eliminate one of the best characters first.

Guess I'm on the "I fight for my friends" train from here on out (inb4 he gets eliminated next).
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Kirby;Bowser
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

Megaman;Incineroar
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

MetalmindStats posted...

Kirby;Bowser

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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!