If there is a method that produces the MOST accurate belief given preexisting information, and ALL the jury members have the same information, I don't see how they can disagree.
There is no such method, because the jury's beliefs on the credibility of witnesses are subjective.
Alternatively, someone is being unreasonable, but we, as observers, cannot say who it is with any degree of confidence. In which case, going to the original problem, I'll claim that you are unreasonable and you'll claim that I'm unreasonable.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.