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TopicToy Story Mafia Topic 2 - On the Conveyor Belt
MZero
04/15/24 10:36:46 AM
#79:


Kirby321 posted...
There's nuance to this. Stop with the ignorant blanket statements.

No Lynch on any future day is dumb because we have information from flips. This D1 is no different from any other D1 in that we've got jack shit to go off of and any lynch that happens will be sheer luck more often than not.

On future days, we have more information to mitigate our worsened odds of finding scum. Today, we have extremely low odds of hitting scum, and we have absolutely zero info besides "Corrik shot IGCD" and the latter's flip to go off, which at best just tells us that Corrik is town and nothing else.

Suppose Lea is Cop. Then this day ends with either her getting lynched or her claiming. And if she lives and scum has a full-time roleblocker, Lea becomes completely useless.

Whereas if we just NL without any extra buzz, Cop Lea can safely get a scan.

I feel like we do pretty well on Day 1 in general and in fact blow it later on more often than not

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MZero, to the extreme
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