LogFAQs > #960089569

I rambled when I was just going to make a basic list of teams, and then noticed a bunch of interesting stats, so I decided to make the new topic early to put my musings here~

1. Titans
2. Patriots
3. Chiefs
4. Steelers
5. Bills
6. Ravens?
7. Chargers?

1. Packers
2. Cardinals
3. Cowboys
4. Bucs
5. Rams
6. Panthers
7. Saints
8. Vikings

Carolina and Tampa play each other both weeks 16 and 18, and Carolina plays the Saints week 17. Carolina could easily be in a position to take the division by winning all 3! They're the only one with no division losses and already have two road wins. Go Cam go?

After #5 in the AFC, I kind of just shrugged. I feel good about nothing I could put there. Bengals? Browns? Ravens? Chargers? Colts? Pick two of them! Whoever they are, they're probably getting knocked out in the WC round anyway. The Pats blowing that game to Miami week 1 could ultimately cost them the division, but their conference record is spectacular and they're swapping with the Bills at worst.

Something telling about the .500 Colts though: Their SOV is extremely bad (The Colts SOS is .468, and their SOV is .261 - an enormous gap), and they just barely escaped a 2-win team. They're exactly what they've projected: A team that can get past bad teams, but can't beat any good ones. Only the 1-win Texans have a lower SOV in the entire NFL than the Colts, and I'm not counting the Lions. Sure, they have a +38 point differential, but it's also misleading, as they went +43 against the worthless Texans and Jets at home. The Bills and Pats have bad SOVs, but they don't come near the Colts despite having better records. Also, Denver's been knocked on their schedule, but it's still been stronger than any of these three.

I think the NFC has a lot more potential danger coming from 6 and 7 seeds than the AFC does. All 3 NFC South teams, and even the Vikings, would be potentially dangerous to face in round 1. I wouldn't fear a team like the Colts at all.

Seattle lost to both the Saints and the Vikings, meaning they'd likely need to go at least 7-1 in their last 8 to get to 10 wins, or hope for some big multi-team tiebreaker that negates the head to head (Say, with Carolina divisionally TBing the Saints out first). Seattle's conference record is also an awful 1-4 at the moment. I just can't see them staying in the race, even if they pull it off against the depleted Cardinals this week.

I'm torn on Arizona and Seattle but the Cardinals could effectively knock Seattle out this week. I have the Saints effectively knocking the Eagles out this week, the Panthers knocking WFT out this week, and the Vikings crippling the 49ers next week (This is almost an elimination game for whoever loses).

The Falcons at 4-5 have one of the worst conference records in the NFL (2-5), and the second worst SOV in the NFC. Even if they kept up in wins, which they probably won't, they won't tiebreak a damned thing except maybe the Saints... Assuming they finish the sweep over them in week 18.

Speaking of SOS/SOV: You know who has the worst SOS in the NFC? The Rams. Who has the worst SOV in the NFC (still not counting the Lions)? The Rams. Yes, they'll straggle into the playoffs, but they have a single quality home win in a game that Tampa didn't show up to for most of the game. You know who else has that same win? WFT. The two best teams they've played, the Cardinals and Titans, have both smashed them at home. They're going to have their bye, then go to Green Bay, and get smashed again. I've never bought into this team and I continue not to. I still think they're at best the third best team in the NFC, and I remain unconvinced they are better than any of the teams that will win their division.

Yay! Input! Discussion! A bad Thursday game nobody cares about!

I decided to go one step further before posting this to go to one of those schedule things and quick pick every game on whimsy and got the following results:

Packers, Cardinals, Cowboys, Bucs, Rams, Panthers... 49ers? What?

Titans, Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, Patriots (Because of that week 1 loss to Miami, but they take the division if they sweep Buffalo), Ravens, Chargers.

Roughly what I expected in the AFC, but I played around with the NFC a bit more: Ultimately, the Saints win over the Seahawks is really hurting Seattle, and Seattle loses almost any tiebreaker combination that involves them. Since it's only two divisions involved, divisional tiebreakers are applying first, and the Saints head to head over Seattle is still valid. However, the 49ers will TB out the Saints in most scenarios if Seattle does not get in their way. So long as the Panthers stay around, they will make the playoffs in virtually all tiebreaker scenarios.

My quick picks had the 10-7 Panthers in 6th, the 10-7 49ers in 7th, and the 10-7 Saints in 8th.

11-6 Patriots, 10-7 Chargers, 9-8 Ravens. 9-8 Browns in 8th.

Yay musings? Yay bad Thursday games?

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