Board 8 > NFL Week 11 Discussion Topic

(+) Yeah! (+)

I rambled when I was just going to make a basic list of teams, and then noticed a bunch of interesting stats, so I decided to make the new topic early to put my musings here~

1. Titans
2. Patriots
3. Chiefs
4. Steelers
5. Bills
6. Ravens?
7. Chargers?

1. Packers
2. Cardinals
3. Cowboys
4. Bucs
5. Rams
6. Panthers
7. Saints
8. Vikings

Carolina and Tampa play each other both weeks 16 and 18, and Carolina plays the Saints week 17. Carolina could easily be in a position to take the division by winning all 3! They're the only one with no division losses and already have two road wins. Go Cam go?

After #5 in the AFC, I kind of just shrugged. I feel good about nothing I could put there. Bengals? Browns? Ravens? Chargers? Colts? Pick two of them! Whoever they are, they're probably getting knocked out in the WC round anyway. The Pats blowing that game to Miami week 1 could ultimately cost them the division, but their conference record is spectacular and they're swapping with the Bills at worst.

Something telling about the .500 Colts though: Their SOV is extremely bad (The Colts SOS is .468, and their SOV is .261 - an enormous gap), and they just barely escaped a 2-win team. They're exactly what they've projected: A team that can get past bad teams, but can't beat any good ones. Only the 1-win Texans have a lower SOV in the entire NFL than the Colts, and I'm not counting the Lions. Sure, they have a +38 point differential, but it's also misleading, as they went +43 against the worthless Texans and Jets at home. The Bills and Pats have bad SOVs, but they don't come near the Colts despite having better records. Also, Denver's been knocked on their schedule, but it's still been stronger than any of these three.

I think the NFC has a lot more potential danger coming from 6 and 7 seeds than the AFC does. All 3 NFC South teams, and even the Vikings, would be potentially dangerous to face in round 1. I wouldn't fear a team like the Colts at all.

Seattle lost to both the Saints and the Vikings, meaning they'd likely need to go at least 7-1 in their last 8 to get to 10 wins, or hope for some big multi-team tiebreaker that negates the head to head (Say, with Carolina divisionally TBing the Saints out first). Seattle's conference record is also an awful 1-4 at the moment. I just can't see them staying in the race, even if they pull it off against the depleted Cardinals this week.

I'm torn on Arizona and Seattle but the Cardinals could effectively knock Seattle out this week. I have the Saints effectively knocking the Eagles out this week, the Panthers knocking WFT out this week, and the Vikings crippling the 49ers next week (This is almost an elimination game for whoever loses).

The Falcons at 4-5 have one of the worst conference records in the NFL (2-5), and the second worst SOV in the NFC. Even if they kept up in wins, which they probably won't, they won't tiebreak a damned thing except maybe the Saints... Assuming they finish the sweep over them in week 18.

Speaking of SOS/SOV: You know who has the worst SOS in the NFC? The Rams. Who has the worst SOV in the NFC (still not counting the Lions)? The Rams. Yes, they'll straggle into the playoffs, but they have a single quality home win in a game that Tampa didn't show up to for most of the game. You know who else has that same win? WFT. The two best teams they've played, the Cardinals and Titans, have both smashed them at home. They're going to have their bye, then go to Green Bay, and get smashed again. I've never bought into this team and I continue not to. I still think they're at best the third best team in the NFC, and I remain unconvinced they are better than any of the teams that will win their division.

Yay! Input! Discussion! A bad Thursday game nobody cares about!

I decided to go one step further before posting this to go to one of those schedule things and quick pick every game on whimsy and got the following results:

Packers, Cardinals, Cowboys, Bucs, Rams, Panthers... 49ers? What?

Titans, Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, Patriots (Because of that week 1 loss to Miami, but they take the division if they sweep Buffalo), Ravens, Chargers.

Roughly what I expected in the AFC, but I played around with the NFC a bit more: Ultimately, the Saints win over the Seahawks is really hurting Seattle, and Seattle loses almost any tiebreaker combination that involves them. Since it's only two divisions involved, divisional tiebreakers are applying first, and the Saints head to head over Seattle is still valid. However, the 49ers will TB out the Saints in most scenarios if Seattle does not get in their way. So long as the Panthers stay around, they will make the playoffs in virtually all tiebreaker scenarios.

My quick picks had the 10-7 Panthers in 6th, the 10-7 49ers in 7th, and the 10-7 Saints in 8th.

11-6 Patriots, 10-7 Chargers, 9-8 Ravens. 9-8 Browns in 8th.

Yay musings? Yay bad Thursday games?

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ya go my Titans

Please don't go 7-0 against 2020 playoff teams and 0-2 to the Texans and Jets

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Well at least you're not the Bengals.

The Jets might've broken the Bengals!

Will even one person pick the Falcons?

(no)

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Bengals vs. Raiders feels like a "whose season is spiraling harder" game

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Joe Flacco has revealed he is not vaccinated
https://twitter.com/RichCimini/status/1461073040452825088?t=Gxh3A-3i_XTv7TjzHJiM8Q&s=19

https://twitter.com/Djbienaime/status/1461078684094377984?t=r_e5WWy9W4mdzg8VnTSJsg&s=19


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That's not very elite of him

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that's the Jets being like "uh yeah dude you can't do that anymore after what happened to Rodgers"

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who is our emergency qb

they might need reps

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Ruggs failed to show up to a mandatory sobriety test while under house arrest and has been ordered to appear in court.

...This guy really doesn't get it, does he?

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yikes

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He then tried to submit a "self-test" shortly after missing it

"Hey guys I'm not drunk just take my word for it that'll be fine right?"

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Emeraldegg posted... He then tried to submit a "self-test" shortly after missing it

"Hey guys I'm not drunk just take my word for it that'll be fine right?"

This just makes him come off as someone who expects it to blow over with no actual punishment.

He's 22 and boy is he clueless.

Leonhart4 posted...

Bengals vs. Raiders feels like a "whose season is spiraling harder" game

Everything about the game I saw Sunday Night looked to me like the Raiders were psychologically toast. I knew within 10 minutes of game start that the Raiders were the wrong pick.

I don't have the Bengals going anywhere. I used to have the Raiders going somewhere. I have both these teams losing most of their remaining games.

But as for this one? I'll pick the one off their bye who may have some life back over the one that looked done last week.

On another note, most people in the other league are locking the Ravens and I'm not even picking them to win the game. Where is all this Ravens confidence coming from? I have them needing to beat a Steelers team with virtually nothing to play for week 18 just to make the playoffs.

This WILL change if Mason Rudolph is starting this week. We know what we're getting with Mason Rudolph. Mason Rudolph is not beating the Chargers.

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In which case, the Ravens would be playing the Steelers for the division in week 18, but still be eliminated with a loss. The Steelers' tie would protect them and keep them in.

I have the Browns going into Baltimore and winning, getting their bye, then hosting Baltimore and losing. It's the most Browns outcome possible.

These upcoming two weeks are brutal though, and could result in significant swings in standings, both in the NFL (especially for draft status, the Jets play the Dolphins and Texans in these weeks) and in Pick 'ems. There were barely 3 games this week I was comfortable locking, and there aren't 3 games next week I'm comfortable locking (Dallas...Atlanta?... Carolina?),

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You're a little too high on the Patriots imo

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MZero posted...

You're a little too high on the Patriots imo

Look at their schedule

They lose to the Titans and maybe one to the Bills.

They otherwise play the Falcons, Colts, Jaguars, and Dolphins. They already have their requisite terrible loss to Miami and should have already clinched a playoff spot before they play them again.

Exactly who's going to stop them? The lowest record they're possibly ending at is 9-8, and that's if they drop to the Titans, Colts, and Bills twice. They also get their bye super late and get the Colts and Bills round 2 following it. Interestingly enough though, the Colts also get their bye before that game.

And it's still good enough to make the playoffs in many scenarios.

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Oh and I do have the Lions winning a game...

Week 16 at Atlanta.

Because that would be the most Falcon thing since the Super Bowl.

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Crescent-Moon posted...

Look at their schedule

They lose to the Titans and maybe one to the Bills.

They otherwise play the Falcons, Colts, Jaguars, and Dolphins. They already have their requisite terrible loss to Miami and should have already clinched a playoff spot before they play them again.

Exactly who's going to stop them? The lowest record they're possibly ending at is 9-8, and that's if they drop to the Titans, Colts, and Bills twice. They also get their bye super late and get the Colts and Bills round 2 following it. Interestingly enough though, the Colts also get their bye before that game.

And it's still good enough to make the playoffs in many scenarios.

They're probably going to be the 2 if they sweep the Bills. Maybe the 3 if KC goes on a run. They're very likely going to be the 5 if they don't.

I said a little too high! I think they'll be a wild card and I definitely don't think they'll sweep the Bills

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Where's the subscribe button for more good Pats facts

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davidponte posted...

Where's the subscribe button for more good Pats facts

The Pats have played a soft schedule so their success may be misleading.

We'll get a much better idea of this team when they host the Titans next week.

The Bills have played an even softer schedule than the Pats and we'll get a better idea when they visit the Saints on Thanksgiving night.

I am currently picking both teams to lose.

The Bills offense spent two weeks broken and I'm not counting beating up the Jets as getting it right. If they light up the Colts too, I may reevaluate. The Saints defense is legitimately good and will eat the offense Buffalo has played lately with multiple turnovers.

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davidponte posted...

Where's the subscribe button for more good Pats facts

Here's one: The Patriots have only beaten one team with a winning record

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Leonhart4 posted...

Here's one: The Patriots have only beaten one team with a winning record

So have the Bills!

Both of them have played really soft so far. The Patriots can have a second one when Carolina wins this week and goes to 6-5, at least, but they could also have 0 if both they and the Chargers lose.

The Chiefs are 6-4 so the Bills keep that regardless.

Pats wins: Jets (twice), Texans, Chargers, Panthers (Darnold's last game), Browns
Bills wins: Jets (once), Dolphins (twice), Texans, WFT, Chiefs

There's a reason the Bills have the second worst SOV in the conference behind the Colts.

Both teams have an awful loss, but the Pats loss is in division to Miami and the Bills loss was to the Jags, which is probably why the Bills will win the division in the end.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/TB_Times/status/1461441560663502857

If you had to guess which NFL player would try to get away with a fake vaccination card, AB would probably be in anyone's top ten

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God fucking damnit AB.

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Leonhart4 posted...

https://mobile.twitter.com/TB_Times/status/1461441560663502857

If you had to guess which NFL player would try to get away with a fake vaccination card, AB would probably be in anyone's top ten

anyone's first guess*

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Sounds about right

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Leonhart4 posted...

https://mobile.twitter.com/TB_Times/status/1461441560663502857

If you had to guess which NFL player would try to get away with a fake vaccination card, AB would probably be in anyone's top ten

Just ten?

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I was trying to be polite

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Mr. Bad Card
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Leonhart4 posted...

I was trying to be polite

Does AB deserve polite?

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Nah probably not but I decided to play it safe anyway

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AB is a jerk

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y'all think tom brady got vaccinated?

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I am not surprised at all with AB.

colliding posted...

y'all think tom brady got vaccinated?

I am sure his wife forced him to get it at the very least.

The Bucs were reportedly 100% vaccinated so unless AB got a 2-for-1 special for Brady, he probably is

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I'm at a bar but oh ya go my mac jones

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mac jones exposing that the pats offense was just fine it was just being headed up by a washed qb two years ago.

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Bad Thursday game

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Yeah, I've had this on in the background and every time I look over at it for a while I remember why I went back to other things pretty quickly.

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Great game, great W

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Lol falcons

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The Pats are refusing to just let Atlanta die.

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xp1337 posted...

Yeah, I've had this on in the background and every time I look over at it for a while I remember why I went back to other things pretty quickly.

I spent basically the entire time playing Xenoblade with it in the background because it was never interesting enough to care about.

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every QB on Atlanta's roster threw an INT tonight

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that's the kind of team synergy you just can't coach

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A whole lotta random people suddenly being ruled out today.

And all on teams I picked at the start of the week

I have a bad feeling about this~

I usually get into the habit of delaying picks later on the year maybe it's time to start.

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Yep, Chris Carson opts to have surgery, thus ending his season with Seattle.

Kamara is out again for the Saints.

Amari Cooper is out 2 games for the Cowboys after a positive Covid test since he's unvaccinated.

But hey, Chubb is back for Cleveland!

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Leonhart4 posted...

Yep, Chris Carson opts to have surgery, thus ending his season with Seattle.

Kamara is out again for the Saints.

Amari Cooper is out 2 games for the Cowboys after a positive Covid test since he's unvaccinated.

But hey, Chubb is back for Cleveland!

Aaron Jones is also out for Green Bay.

The Seattle game was so boring I had no idea he got hurt and was likely going to be out this week.

Also after testing positive earlier this week, Minkah Fitzpatrick was ruled out due to Covid a few hours ago.

Then again Ben's probably getting ruled out tomorrow and I'm promptly bailing off of Mason Rudolph anyway!

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Looks like AB is actually vaxxed lol

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That chef was out for blood lawl

You'd figure AB would learn he can't keep stiffing people out of money he owes them because stuff like this can happen

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Leonhart4 posted...

That chef was out for blood lawl

You'd figure AB would learn he can't keep stiffing people out of money he owes them because stuff like this can happen

Now this is a pattern

Also, Ben was activated for the game.

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