3 months ago I would have said confirm, but the whole debt ceiling debacle has really soured a lot of people on the guy, and he's wasted all of the good will he got for getting Bin Laden. The only saving grace for him is the fact that every single one of the people going for the Republican spot, with the exception of Jon Huntsman, are terrible human beings/politicians, some just less so than others.
If somehow, Huntsman made it to the actual election, I think he'd have a serious shot, but I don't think that's going to happen, so Obama is still the favorite.