Board 8 > Confirn/Deny, no current realistic Republican candidate can beat Obama

(+) Yeah! (+)

Confirm

And by realistic, I mean they could realistically get the Republican nomination.

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I wana say confirm, so I will

confirm

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They have a shot, but at this point I'd call any of them huge underdogs.

I guess that's a Deny.

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Deny.

Because a well executed mudslinging campaign works wonders.

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deny
nothing is impossible, and in politics anything can happen. even the most absurd things.

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maybe, lol

swirIdude posted...
Deny.

Because a well executed mudslinging campaign works wonders.

I would say that all of the front runners right now are just as vulnerable to this as Obama, if not much more so.

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch

I think Obama would have to sabotage himself at this point.

Which is possible, I suppose.

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Deny.

As long as the republican promises change he/she should be competitive.

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Deny. This campaign is going to be all about Obama, not about his opponent.

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Deny

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Deny.

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deny

I'm not saying that it will be even, but there will be competition.

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confirm

not saying it'll be a blowout or anything, but i just don't see any of them actually winning

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Deny. Obama would be favored in any matchup, but against Romney I'd put that as low as 60/40. I'd probably have Paul second in odds just because he SFFs Obama in a lot of his demographics from 2008 (college students and graduates, internet popularity, etc, most of whom are disappointed in Obama and would turn on him aggressively in this matchup,) but he's a step short of realistic, and it'd still be around 65/35.

i give him a 75%+ chance against anyone else, and at least 85 if he's lucky enough to get Bachmann (Palin would be around 98% but i don't think she's going to make herself a factor.)

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You people are delusional. Obama has a ~39% approval rating, and the economy is about to crash into a second recession.

At this point Romney would annihilate him.

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You people are delusional. Obama has a ~39% approval rating, and the economy is about to crash into a second recession.

At this point Romney would annihilate him.

You're underestimating the huge advantage Obama has due to his incumbency, not to mention that those numbers will increase once the "AA+" buzz dies down.

Anyway, I would have confirmed before last week, but Perry's got a real shot.

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BoshStrikesBack posted...
You people are delusional. Obama has a ~39% approval rating, and the economy is about to crash into a second recession.

At this point Romney would annihilate him.

You're underestimating the huge advantage Obama has due to his incumbency, not to mention that those numbers will increase once the "AA+" buzz dies down.

Mark my words: There will be a second recession this year.


And this one he can't blame on Bush.

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Incumbency isn't really much of an advantage.....we've had plenty of one term presidents.

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No matter who wins, we lose, unless the winner is Ron Paul.

That's not going to happen though.

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Dennis Kucinich remains my favorite of the Democratic Presidential Candidates last run.

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No matter who wins, we lose, unless the winner is Ron Paul.

That's not going to happen though.

ron paul sucks. Lol anyone who thinks libertarian economic policy is any better than republican economic policy. Not to mention paul is more or less grandfather of the tea party, which is probably the worst thing to happen to american politics in years...and thats saying something since the past 30 years weve seen reagan, clinton and bush.

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Republican economic policy: Borrow and spend, redistribute wealth to the rich (especially people who own things) through less regulation.
Democratic economic policy: Tax and spend, redistribute wealth to the rich (especially highly educated people in important jobs) through more regulation.

So the Tea Party is one of the best things that's happened to American politics in a long time, something that actually forces us to step back and ask ourselves what kind of country we want.

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red sox 777 posted...
Incumbency isn't really much of an advantage.....we've had plenty of one term presidents.

Since the Great Depression, the only incumbents that have lost are Jimmy Carter and Bush Sr.

...and Gerald Ford but he barely counts as "incumbent."

Since FDR beat Hoover, incumbents are 10-3. >75% odds are quite an advantage!

Granted this might be irrelevant since Carter is the president most Obama detractors compare him to, but still.

EDIT: I forgot to count Truman as an incumbent.

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I think it'll be close, so deny.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/obama-gop-candidates-all-unpopular.html

I don't think Obama has no shot, like some people do. He might be unpopular, but most of the republican nominees are even more unpopular.

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And this one he can't blame on Bush.

Instead he will blame it on the Republican Congress being unwilling to compromise or do anything to prevent it.

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red sox 777 posted...
Which isn't going to work, because there was a Democratic Congress for the first 2 years of Obama's presidency, and nothing has really changed from then with regards to economic policies.

It will be blamed on the recent debt ceiling stuff and a gerenal unwillingness to do anything.

Not saying it is true or right, but that will be the party line.

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Which isn't going to work, because there was a Democratic Congress for the first 2 years of Obama's presidency, and nothing has really changed from then with regards to economic policies.

But I expect this election to be close. Hopefully with a libertarian rather than a social conservative on the Republican side.

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Incumbency isn't really much of an advantage.....we've had plenty of one term presidents.

And plenty more two-term presidents. Bottom line, people typically feel more secure about putting a man with presidential experience back into the White House than a newcomer, especially in times of economic turmoil.

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So the Tea Party is one of the best things that's happened to American politics in a long time, something that actually forces us to step back and ask ourselves what kind of country we want.

if you mean that in a "you need a villain to unite the good guys" sort of way, i agree with you i guess.

The problem is the government isnt the biggest evil in the usa. Its the fact that the corporation controls everything.

I wish a presidential candidate like teddy roosevelt was around. By far the best president in us history.

EDIT: Obama screwed up royally in 2009 and 2010, when he had the house, senate, and oval office. He tried to be a "jesus figure" and "beyond the evils of politics" by trying to be bi partisan. Doesnt work because every republican doesnt want to work with him.

The smartest thing the republican party does is how they realize that 40% of the country isnt gonna like them anyway, so they say screw their vote. All they want is the 40% that are republican, and the middle 20% that actually believes all the talking points and "feel good" stories and doesnt actually look at what political ideologies each party has.

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Also...

So the Tea Party is one of the best things that's happened to American politics in a long time, something that actually forces us to step back and ask ourselves what kind of country we want.

This surprises me, coming from you! If the Tea Party were really just about limited government and responsible spending, then they might be a legitimate alternative. As it stands, the entire party is comprised of fringe right-wing, racist, religious nutjobs not worth taking seriously.

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Incumbency isn't really much of an advantage.....we've had plenty of one term presidents.

doesnt the incumbent have the advantage of not having to use postage for mailing advertisements? I mean at the presidential level where you turn on any major cable news station and get info about the president its might not be a big deal. But incumbency does have financial advantages.

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The real question here is what the **** is Palin even doing. Get her out of here.

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And plenty more two-term presidents. Bottom line, people typically feel more secure about putting a man with presidential experience back into the White House than a newcomer, especially in times of economic turmoil.

In times of military turmoil they do. In times of economic turmoil, the trend is to throw out the incumbent.

if you mean that in a "you need a villain to unite the good guys" sort of way, i agree with you i guess.

The problem is the government isnt the biggest evil in the usa. Its the fact that the corporation controls everything.

I wish a presidential candidate like teddy roosevelt was around. By far the best president in us history.

I mean, most of all, in the sense that we need politicians with substantive differences in policy once they are elected. As for government and big corporations (as opposed to small corporations), my feeling is that they are complicit with each other, and that both Democrats and Republicans have supported this system for years.

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90s games > 00s games

The smartest thing the republican party does is how they realize that 40% of the country isnt gonna like them anyway, so they say screw their vote. All they want is the 40% that are republican, and the middle 20% that actually believes all the talking points and "feel good" stories and doesnt actually look at what political ideologies each party has.

Yup. The Republican Party targets the majority, while the Democratic Party tries to piece together a lot of different minority groups.

This surprises me, coming from you! If the Tea Party were really just about limited government and responsible spending, then they might be a legitimate alternative. As it stands, the entire party is comprised of fringe right-wing, racist, religious nutjobs not worth taking seriously.

Well, if the Tea Party does become a legitimate 3rd party (too much to hope for), I'd think (hope?) it would contain most of the libertarian types while the old Republican Party would take the social conservatives.

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I mean, most of all, in the sense that we need politicians with substantive differences in policy once they are elected. As for government and big corporations (as opposed to small corporations), my feeling is that they are complicit with each other, and that both Democrats and Republicans have supported this system for years.

the democratic ideology does not support this system. The democrats, once they get into office, seem to become wimps and start to give in.

Its just like how most republicans that i talk too (the voters) hate how the usa spends spends spends. But the republicans in office spend just as much money as the democrats.

Hell the only president recently to actually improve the debt situation was clinton (it was the only decently good thing he did, as repealing the glass-steagall act was horrible and so was signing the telecommunications bill. Both by far outweighed the good of reducing the debt).

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Well, if the Tea Party does become a legitimate 3rd party (too much to hope for), I'd think (hope?) it would contain most of the libertarian types while the old Republican Party would take the social conservatives.

congrats, you just split the party in half, causing you to loose many more spots in congress. The two party system has pretty much ensured that you have to take the good with the bad on whichever side you choose.

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Obama is truly one of the worst politicians I have ever seen.

Not as far as ideas go, but seriously he is either:

1) ****ing awful at politics
2) trying so hard to seem above it that he ends up being 1) ****ing awful at politics.

Still better than the absolutely insane alternative, but many people will not realize this so he could very possibly be screwed.

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3 months ago I would have said confirm, but the whole debt ceiling debacle has really soured a lot of people on the guy, and he's wasted all of the good will he got for getting Bin Laden. The only saving grace for him is the fact that every single one of the people going for the Republican spot, with the exception of Jon Huntsman, are terrible human beings/politicians, some just less so than others.

If somehow, Huntsman made it to the actual election, I think he'd have a serious shot, but I don't think that's going to happen, so Obama is still the favorite.

Deny, but barely.

From: yoshifan823 | #038
3 months ago I would have said confirm, but the whole debt ceiling debacle has really soured a lot of people on the guy, and he's wasted all of the good will he got for getting Bin Laden. The only saving grace for him is the fact that every single one of the people going for the Republican spot, with the exception of Jon Huntsman, are terrible human beings/politicians, some just less so than others.

If somehow, Huntsman made it to the actual election, I think he'd have a serious shot, but I don't think that's going to happen, so Obama is still the favorite.

Glad to see I'm not the only Huntsman fan on the board.

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Deny.

Entirely depends on how they handle Obama.

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Well, if the Tea Party does become a legitimate 3rd party (too much to hope for), I'd think (hope?) it would contain most of the libertarian types while the old Republican Party would take the social conservatives.

This would be like... a dream come true.

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a few months ago I would've confirmed definitely, but Obama's been such a gigantic moron/evil turncoat these last few weeks that he might get thrown out because everyone hates his ass, including his base, who's slowly coming around.

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Mershaaay posted...
BoshStrikesBack posted...
You people are delusional. Obama has a ~39% approval rating, and the economy is about to crash into a second recession.

At this point Romney would annihilate him.

You're underestimating the huge advantage Obama has due to his incumbency, not to mention that those numbers will increase once the "AA+" buzz dies down.

Mark my words: There will be a second recession this year.


And this one he can't blame on Bush.

Are you serious? He can totally still blame it on Bush.


And remember how the recession started at the end of Bush's presidency? His policies+Obama's during the initial crisis are whats causing the impending "recession".


Its not all Obama's fault.

It's only Obama's fault because he's not doing enough. The original stimulus helped, but it was far too small and contained way too many tax cuts compared to spending.

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Iamdead7 posted...
It's only Obama's fault because he's not doing enough. The original stimulus helped, but it was far too small and contained way too many tax cuts compared to spending.

The reason why we're headed for a second recession is that the problems from the first recession weren't cleared out. It has nothing to do with any stimulus at all.

That's what I said, they didn't do enough to fix it the first time around because the stimulus wasn't big enough

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Alternatively, the stimulus just doesn't work and it doesn't matter how big it is. Politically, that's going to be a much more powerful argument; dunno whether it would be true economically although I think I'd lean towards yes for that too.

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One thing is that the stimulus doesn't make sense from a common sense perspective (as opposed to an educated, theoretical perspective), which is where the Tea Party is drawing much of its support from. If your family is broke and out of work, what do you do? Go to the bank and take out big loans that it will take your children and grandchildren to repay, and then use it to buy big screen televisions and vacations to the French Riviera? No, of course not. But that's just what we're doing on a national level.

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red sox 777 posted...
One thing is that the stimulus doesn't make sense from a common sense perspective (as opposed to an educated, theoretical perspective), which is where the Tea Party is drawing much of its support from. If your family is broke and out of work, what do you do? Go to the bank and take out big loans that it will take your children and grandchildren to repay, and then use it to buy big screen televisions and vacations to the French Riviera? No, of course not. But that's just what we're doing on a national level.

Are you actually implying that the stimulus makes sense from an "educated, theoretical perspective"?

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You can make solid arguments for it from an educated, theoretical, perspective, but it may not necessarily be correct.

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