Everything can change based on new information, but the way this gen is winding down, the battle for next-gen is looking to be between Microsoft and Nintendo. Nintendo in Japan, Microsoft in America, Europe anyone's guess. It's entirely possible that something ends up changing that, either one of those two has a blunder that deflates some of their hype (MS focusing too much on the casual would leave Sony open to be the 'hardcore' option, if they chose to go that route, as an example), but Microsoft and Nintendo has definitely risen to the top this gen. Sony does well worldwide -- I believe the PS3 heading into the holiday season was the best-selling console this year -- but they don't dominate any one territory like they used to.
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"When I was a young man, I had liberty, but I did not see it. I had time, but I did not know it."