LogFAQs > #877274679

darkknight109 posted...

Well, first of all, both Koreas aren't one country, which means that there will likely be enormous South Korean casualties. Secondly, "some missiles being fired out of NK" is rather a more concerning idea than you seem to be giving credence to. Thirdly, China is right next door to North Korea and that's the dragon that will be woken up by this fight.

1) For the purposes of this discussion, I think we can call it one country. Separating the two would be like calling the Iraqi war a multi-country war because it involved Kurdistan. But let's not get caught up in semantics, there is no doubt that there will be huge casualties in both Koreas; the question is, if the war will encompass the neighbouring countries.

2) Is it though? Literally the entire world knows the exact progress and capabilities of their missile program, and we've been able to monitor all the missiles that were launched. Both Japan and SK have counter measures (You can see the anti-missile batteries all over Tokyo whenever NK says they will fire a missile over Japan). It's literally the equivalent of the Israeli Iron Dome.

3) While I agree that a destabilized NK will be a humanitarian nightmare for China, that won't be the case of a Unified Korea, which I would think would be the goal of any New Korean War. Assuming that SK "wins", I can't foresee a huge exodus of North Koreans fleeing a Unified Korea.

Just to clarify, I took your comment as saying that if NK goes to war, it will spread to SK, Japan and China (and even other countries). NK's military, as big as it is, doesn't have the capability to launch an offensive campaign (outside of missile strikes) while simultaneously defending their turf. On the other hand, the Japanese/SK forces, combined with the US forces (which is currently the largest deployment outside of the US) does have this capability. And so long as NK does attack Japan, Article 9 goes out the window, so the JSDF can be used to invade NK in that case.

The wildcard, like you said is China. We don't know exactly what they'll do, but IMO I don't see them committing their forces like the First Korean War. I don't even know if they'll bother to support them piecemeal like Russia/Syria if it becomes clear that the goal is regime change. You can tell they are getting sick of Kim (they're denouncing missile tests while a decade ago they wouldn't), and like I said, a unified Korea wouldn't be a humanitarian issue for them. There just isn't much benefit to them getting involved if that is the endgame.