LogFAQs > #877367032

desuno-to posted...

Just to clarify, I took your comment as saying that if NK goes to war, it will spread to SK, Japan and China (and even other countries). NK's military, as big as it is, doesn't have the capability to launch an offensive campaign (outside of missile strikes) while simultaneously defending their turf.

You can spread 7.5 million people pretty far; it's not inconceivable that the North would simply split their forces into an attacking and defensive force. Moreover, Seoul is so close to the North it lies well within artillery range; the North wouldn't even have to move its forces to potentially kill millions in an artillery campaign (and a subsequent invasion wouldn't have to go far at all to seize the South's capital).

Again, I'm not saying the North would win any war that the US chose to get involved in - not unless China was willing to throw their full weight behind them (at which point this becomes a potential "hot" war with nuclear arms involved, something that is literally unprecedented in the history of the world). I'm simply pointing out that "Walk in, drop some bombs, declare victory" is not how this fight is going to go, not unless you're content to see a seven-digit death toll on both sides.

desuno-to posted...

The wildcard, like you said is China. We don't know exactly what they'll do, but IMO I don't see them committing their forces like the First Korean War. I don't even know if they'll bother to support them piecemeal like Russia/Syria if it becomes clear that the goal is regime change. You can tell they are getting sick of Kim (they're denouncing missile tests while a decade ago they wouldn't), and like I said, a unified Korea wouldn't be a humanitarian issue for them. There just isn't much benefit to them getting involved if that is the endgame.

If China wanted regime change in the North, they could easily get it by cutting off their supply of oil, which would torch the regime almost overnight; they don't want it, because as soon as Kim falls, the America-friendly South is going to move in and take over, likely with American military support. China has already flipped out about America deploying a THAAD system in the South out of concerns it could be used to spy on them; how do you think they'd react to an even greater American military presence sitting right on their doorstep in an area they're trying to set-up as their sphere of influence? From China's perspective, that situation would be reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis, albeit with tensions not quite as high.

China doesn't like the latest Kim, but they've also shown that he hasn't expired their patience yet. They're certainly not yet at the point where they would tolerate war on their doorstep without getting involved themselves.
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