LogFAQs > #880849023

Sativa_Rose posted...

This is kind of like saying you wished you bet everything you had on a game of blackjack you happened to win. Of cousre you're going to bet everything if you know ahead of time that you'll win, but in reality you never know that when you're making the decision. If you get into the habit of betting everything (for a professional trader to commit 5% of their trading portfolio's worth to a single trade is considered very aggressive, for example), you're going to inevitably lose catastrophically at some point.

This. Ethereum sounds like a "me too" fad in light of Bitcoin. People who are "bummed" they missed the Bitcoin bubble now have an opportunity to participate in another, but that makes this one more suspect for several reasons:

If there are a million and one variations of cryptocurrency, none will ever take foothold as a real currency--so it's basically a volatile commodity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

One probably will take foothold, but that means the original--Bitcoin. Since cryptocurrencies are somewhat obscure still, only the one with any chance at name recognition will probably stick around.

Which means everyone investing into Ethereum is behaving in a manner that doesn't lend to its stability. Everyone is trying to catch the train ride and jump off at the right time. All it takes is a decent group with a sizable chunk to say, "here's it for me" and liquidate. After a crash, the chances of it fully bouncing back like Bitcoin are pretty slim. Again, no one is interested in using it as a legitimate currency. Vendors aren't going to have like 5 cryptocurrency options.

Additionally, I've heard Bitcoin has some issues with liquidating a huge amount at once. I'm not sure to the validity of that, but if you're sitting on 5 mil in BTC but you can't sell that all in any meaningful amount of time, what's the point? You still need 5 mil of BTC to move around as a currency, or someone interested in buying that much, and cryptocurrencies are still more of a commodity and BTC has lost it's bubble appeal, so you won't have people "investing" like before.

Can some money be made in it? Yeah sure. Especially if you're in and out and not expecting much. But if this spin-off currency is taking off like TC says, it's already too late to buy. I wouldn't want 5 mil in ETH for the same reason if everyone wants to sell at that worth, no one will buy what I'm holding. Someone is going to get stuck with the potato.
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"He has two neurons held together by a spirochete."