LogFAQs > #907101278

Crescent-Moon posted...

Tony, Puns, X1, and X2

If no one disappears at all, kill X1. Confirms them both as town.

If one person disappears, kill X2. Confirms one is scum.

If one person disappears and it is X2 that disappeared, shoot Tony. Also confirms X2 is town.

If the Xs disappear, kill Puns. Confirms both are scum.
But is it better than this?

Yup.

In your 1 disappears scenario there is a 2/3% chance that the X is triggered. 67% chance to tell us 1 is scum but not WHICH one.

In my scenario of 1 disappearing it covers the scenario of that being puns/tony so we get that information immediately as opposed to pushing the scenario back to the next day.

So thats a 1/5 chance we get the correct information on the spot if puns/tony are removed.

And a 1/5 chance we get the correct information on the spot if that X trigger is removed because mzero either guesses right or he confirms it for tomorrow with a wrong guess.

And a 3/5 chance that one of the other Xs gets removed which is a 60% chance to push the conversation to the next day but still confirming exactly 1 of them is scum.

40% chance to nail it and 60% chance to nail the situation but not specifically who.

40% > 33%

Which is better.
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~C~ FD
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