Board 8 > Chris' Music Mafia Topic 13: It's a Bon Jovi song

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrZHPOeOxQQ" data-time="

4. ColZach
7. Mzero11
10. ChaosTonyV4
11. turbopuns2
13. Forceful_Dragon
14. DoubleTangicide
16. HanOfTheNekos
17. Crescent-Moon
20. Benjamin3740
21. htaeD (Death)

[LD1] - Alakazam, MAFIA Vanilla
[KN1] - Masterplum, Role Unknown
[LD2] - Leo, MAFIA Detective
[KN2] - Corrik, TOWN Bodyguard
[LD3] - IfGodCouldDie, TOWN Vanilla
[KN3] - Panthera, TOWN Jack of All Trades
[KN3] - Eaed, TOWN Jailkeeper
[LD4] - Edumey, MAFIA Roleblocker
[KN4] - Sultan, TOWN Elite Bodyguard
[KN4] - red13n, MAFIA Unscannable
[LN5] - ScareChan, TOWN Vanilla
[KN5] - Sheep007, TOWN Cop
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Current Votals

[2] - MZero - Puns, Ben
[0] - Ben - (Puns)
[0] - Tony - (Ben)

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day ends Sunday at 10 PM EDT.
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I like how puns keeps ignoring the fact that I said "ok, now that's I've caught up, I understand what you all are saying and I trust you puns".

Anyway, we're overthinking this.

Caveat before I say my bit: We are 100% using MZero today.

Tony is Scum. Most likely Scum Jack. Here's the proof:

1. Dumey was not seen Roleblocking N1.
a. Dumey did not flip Ninja, so we can discount that possibility.
b. Janitor was used on Plum - either the Jack has the Janitor (which means he did not RB Tony), or a separate role has it by themselves.
c. For a ninjaizer to exist, they have to be a separate role from the janitor. With an Unscannable, a ninjaizer doesn't quite fit.

Conclusion: Dumey did not roleblock N1, UNLESS the two remaining Scum roles are Jack and one of Janitor/Ninjaizer by themselves.

2. Scum probably have a Jack
a. It's meta, but Janitor is usually attributed to a Jack recently, no?
b. A watch is the perfect power for this Scum to have - we had BG, EBG, Cop, JK, Jack all flip so far. Presumably, one of Tracker/Watcher is Town, and possibly Vig as well.
c. With Detective having already flipped, it's unlikely they would have a full-time Watcher (though this is also possible)
d. If Scum DON'T have a Jack, then that means one unflipped Scum is Janitor (important point - Janitors are often ninjas)

Conclusion: Scum having a Jack makes sense, and Jack having a Watch makes sense.

3. Sheep died last night
a. With two Scum remaining, Scum feared the Sheep scan... either MORE than the Watcher/Tracker scans, or more than just one of those scans.
b. 4/11 players were cleared going into last night by Cop, meaning 2/7 chance of Cop hitting Scum IF both Scum scan Scum. 1/7 if a Godfather exists. Conversely, 1/2 chance of Watcher hitting Scum.
c. Why the hell would you Watch puns in that situation? If he is Town, the best course of action was for him to track Tony. Like, you would ONLY watch puns if you wanted him to confirm you as having visited him.

Conclusion: Numbers say there's no reason for Scum to not have killed Watcher last night.

FINAL CONCLUSION: If Tony were Town, Dumey would've RB'd night 1, Tony probably would have Watched Sheep last night, and Tony would also be dead this night.
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I'm inclined to believe puns as Town here because he's already on MZero.

I don't think we should wait until end of day to enact the test MZero plan - that requires 6 votes, but it ensures we don't end day without EVERYONE we want on it.

So here's the plan as I see it:
Tony, puns, Zach, me, Death, Crescent all vote for MZero.

If 2 names are removed, both Tony and puns are Scum, MZero kills puns. We lynch Tony tomorrow.

If 1 name is removed, one of Tony and puns are Scum, most likely Tony, MZero kills Tony. If that's wrong, we lynch puns tomorrow.

If 0 names are removed, neither Tony nor puns are Scum. We then have an order of 4 people: Zach, me, Death, Crescent. I propose Zach be the default - he gets killed if Tony, puns, or Crescent are removed (Tony and puns will be confirmed, and I think most people trust Crescent the most out of that set of 4).

If Zach is removed, blow up me. If I'm removed, blow up Death. If Death is removed, blow up Crescent.

Problems with this plan:
1. Doesn't confirm Crescent in any way.
2. If tony and puns are both Town, strong chance to end up with two Town dead from this test. However, it gives us a confirmed 3rd name, and then Tony would HAVE to be killed that night, meaning Puns gets a Track off on his choice of target.

Thoughts?
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Oh yeah Tony why didn't you watch Sheep last night? >_>
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Also, little side note: ColZach has stopped producing content. He's done a lot of repeating of things other people have said. Not a lot of confidence in him.
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

If 2 names are removed, both Tony and puns are Scum, MZero kills puns. We lynch Tony tomorrow.

If 1 name is removed, one of Tony and puns are Scum, most likely Tony, MZero kills Tony. If that's wrong, we lynch puns tomorrow.

The problem here is if 1 name is removed and it happens to be Tony
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I think I like FD's plan the best so far
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Ah, good point. I hadn't thought of that.

Can you choose not to explode if lynched?
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And I just read through FD's post, I like it too. Trying to see if I can find any other holes in it.
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Oh, I just reread my post and it makes no sense with the 0 names removed thing.
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Switch to mine would be:

ONLY kill puns if 2 names are removed. Confirms him and Tony as Scum.
ONLY kill Zach is 0 names are removed. Confirms tony and puns as Town.

If 1 name is removed:

puns -> Tony -> me -> Death -> Crescent -> No explode (if possible)

If a name is removed, blow up the person the arrow is pointing to.
If you HAVE to explode on somebody, then I'll rethink it.
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The issue with FD's is that it works brilliantly if one of puns/Tony's names disappears, or if two names disappear. Or if 0 names disappear.

It works meh if a single name disappears that isn't one of puns/Tony, since we don't pick up that information.
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I'm pretty sure I have to kill someone
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Can you confirm?
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God damn Im conflicted and pissed.

If Tony is scum, fuck this game.

Like actually fuck mafia as a whole. Its still partially Zams fault for ragequitting and I guess I cant explicitly blame scum if they decided to use that to their benefit with tony nailing him, but still, fuck that.

In any case, dont lynch me in any scenario because Im town and thats obvious Han. Stop being dumb. You did good with dumey but your record this game is still smelly garbage. Not trying to hate, promise.

By the nature of how it works, there will always be some kind of hole.

The key is what path makes that hole the smallest.

Zach is really going all in on the "I'm not enough of a jerk to premeditate doing that to Alakazam", and either he's telling the truth or he's destroying his future credibility.

It would just be nice if Zach would say anything else, though..

HanOfTheNekos posted...

The issue with FD's is that it works brilliantly if one of puns/Tony's names disappears, or if two names disappear. Or if 0 names disappear.

It works meh if a single name disappears that isn't one of puns/Tony, since we don't pick up that information.

I think using 6 is ultimately too many and that 4 is the least likely to have holes.

Ben filled in the hole of what I said last night.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

The issue with FD's is that it works brilliantly if one of puns/Tony's names disappears, or if two names disappear. Or if 0 names disappear.

It works meh if a single name disappears that isn't one of puns/Tony, since we don't pick up that information.

We still pick up the information. Either we know that exactly 1 is scum when that X dies which is still valuable or if that particular X was removed we have a 50/50 chance that mzero picks the correct 1 scum naturally. And even if there is 1 scum and that particular x is removed and mzero picks the wrong one it is the only scenario where a town puns/tony gets exploded so it confirms the other scum.

Its fool proof with the exception of a 16% fail chance that only exists in the "they are both scum scenario". Now im no Corellian but I like those odds.
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

Switch to mine would be:

ONLY kill puns if 2 names are removed. Confirms him and Tony as Scum.
ONLY kill Zach is 0 names are removed. Confirms tony and puns as Town.

If 1 name is removed:

puns -> Tony -> me -> Death -> Crescent -> No explode (if possible)

If a name is removed, blow up the person the arrow is pointing to.
If you HAVE to explode on somebody, then I'll rethink it.

See the problem here is that puns blows up in the '1 scum scenario' but you have puns blowing up in the 2 scum scenario. So if puns were the 1 scum we would mislynch Tony the following day every single time based on this.
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Tony, Puns, X1, and X2

If no one disappears at all, kill X1. Confirms them both as town.

If one person disappears, kill X2. Confirms one is scum.

If one person disappears and it is X2 that disappeared, shoot Tony. Also confirms X2 is town.

If the Xs disappear, kill Puns. Confirms both are scum.
But is it better than this?

Crescent-Moon posted...

I think using 6 is ultimately too many and that 4 is the least likely to have holes.

Ben filled in the hole of what I said last night.

I don't think you can AVOID a large hole (of at least 25%) if you only use 4.

The extra 2 serve to reduce the chance that the 'wrong' X gets removed and the only scenario that the extra 2 might blow up is thev2 scum scenario which would mean the game is 100% over. Hell, I'll volunteer myself as one of X3/X4 for my plan. If my death could confirm the final 2 scum? That's badass.
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What hole remains in the plan of four, though, compared to the 1/6 hole in yours? Let's call Tony and Puns X3 and X4 here

If no one vanishes, you kill X1
If anything but X2 vanishes only, you kill X2
If X2 vanishes only, you kill X3
If X1 and X2 vanish, you kill X4

And there is no scenario where both one of Tony/Puns and an X can vanish together, which removes every one of those possibilities.

Crescent-Moon posted...

Tony, Puns, X1, and X2

If no one disappears at all, kill X1. Confirms them both as town.

If one person disappears, kill X2. Confirms one is scum.

If one person disappears and it is X2 that disappeared, shoot Tony. Also confirms X2 is town.

If the Xs disappear, kill Puns. Confirms both are scum.
But is it better than this?

Yup.

In your 1 disappears scenario there is a 2/3% chance that the X is triggered. 67% chance to tell us 1 is scum but not WHICH one.

In my scenario of 1 disappearing it covers the scenario of that being puns/tony so we get that information immediately as opposed to pushing the scenario back to the next day.

So thats a 1/5 chance we get the correct information on the spot if puns/tony are removed.

And a 1/5 chance we get the correct information on the spot if that X trigger is removed because mzero either guesses right or he confirms it for tomorrow with a wrong guess.

And a 3/5 chance that one of the other Xs gets removed which is a 60% chance to push the conversation to the next day but still confirming exactly 1 of them is scum.

40% chance to nail it and 60% chance to nail the situation but not specifically who.

40% > 33%

Which is better.
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Shouldn't nothing here involve MZero "guessing" though?

Crescent-Moon posted...

What hole remains in the plan of four, though, compared to the 1/6 hole in yours? Let's call Tony and Puns X3 and X4 here

If no one vanishes, you kill X1
If anything but X2 vanishes only, you kill X2
If X2 vanishes only, you kill X3
If X1 and X2 vanish, you kill X4

Lets not call them X anything because that fucks up our notation. Anyways i think i answered your question. It isn't so much that there is a hole but that your 4 person scenario is not optimized.

In my scenario it is prioritized on giving us the correct explosion on the spot and the extra people serve as redundant triggers for a scenario that would win the game as town.
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Crescent-Moon posted...

Shouldn't nothing here involve MZero "guessing" though?

Are you even reading it?

The only scenario with guesswork is the 1/5 scenario that X gets removed. And a WRONG guess is functionally the same as a RIGHT guess because it CONFIRMS the other as scum. Because they can't both be town in that scenario or the "both town trigger" would have been blown up instead.
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

Crescent-Moon posted...

Shouldn't nothing here involve MZero "guessing" though?

Are you even reading it?

The only scenario with guesswork is the 1/5 scenario that X gets removed. And a WRONG guess is functionally the same as a RIGHT guess because it CONFIRMS the other as scum. Because they can't both be town in that scenario or the "both town trigger" would have been blown up instead.

I know, I just don't really like guesswork.

It's fine either way, though.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Crescent-Moon posted...

What hole remains in the plan of four, though, compared to the 1/6 hole in yours? Let's call Tony and Puns X3 and X4 here

If no one vanishes, you kill X1
If anything but X2 vanishes only, you kill X2
If X2 vanishes only, you kill X3
If X1 and X2 vanish, you kill X4

Lets not call them X anything because that fucks up our notation. Anyways i think i answered your question. It isn't so much that there is a hole but that your 4 person scenario is not optimized.

In my scenario it is prioritized on giving us the correct explosion on the spot and the extra people serve as redundant triggers for a scenario that would win the game as town.

It made it easier to put into scenario form that way, that's all.

Its guess work that only occurs in one fraction of one scenario and it creates more accuracy overall.

In the 1 scum scenario:

60% of the time X2 blows up and we vross that bridge tomorrow.

30% of the time the scum between puns/tony blows up.

10% of the time the town between puns/tony blows up which is still a guaranteed win for our lynch tomorrow.
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Also Han Tony posted one time and left (he's been doing that a lot lately).

It's not like he's gotten a chance to vote MZero since we started talking about it.

Crescent-Moon posted...

It made it easier to put into scenario form that way, that's all.

If were doing this i want mzero to be perfectly clear on the game plan because the only thing that could cause a catastrophic failure is if mzero misinterprets some part of the stratagem and blows up someone that sends the wrong signal. Changing notation after its already been used half a dozen times as Puns, Tony, X1, X2 (etc) could result in that.
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Lynching the bomb will be Puns + Tony + X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 (might as well keep the notation the same).

If 1 person disappears, and it is Tony (that disappeared), Kill Puns. Puns will flip scum and we will know what it meant.

If 1 person disappears, and it is Puns (that disappeared), Kill Tony. Tony will flip scum and we will know what it meant.

If 0 people disappear, kill X1. If X1 dies we will know that Tony and Puns are BOTH confirmed town.

If 1 person disappears, but it is neither Tony nor Puns, kill X2. We will know 1 of the 2 is scum, but it wasn't confirmed which.
Caveat to this one: if X2 is the one that happens to disappear, then shoot either of Tony/Puns.
Either this will result in a dead scum (which will appear like one of the first scenarios to us) or it will result in Tony/Puns dying as town, and confirm the other is scum.

If 2 people disappear, kill EITHER of X3 or X4. If either of them is killed we will know that BOTH Puns and Tony are scum
For... Science?!.

Anyways i don't mean to come off critical. If people would rather use a 4 person setup we can. i just think it leaves something on the table in terms of increasing our odds.

Also what an absurd mafia role. I never thought I'd be mathing so much in a situation like this.
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Crescent-Moon posted...

For... Science?!.

Was the rest of that meant to be a quote? I prefer to get credit for my work.

But yes, for science if you want to look at it that way. Or for victory because the game is just over at that point.
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Win by

Culture

Science

Or Napalm

Forceful_Dragon posted...

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Switch to mine would be:

ONLY kill puns if 2 names are removed. Confirms him and Tony as Scum.
ONLY kill Zach is 0 names are removed. Confirms tony and puns as Town.

If 1 name is removed:

puns -> Tony -> me -> Death -> Crescent -> No explode (if possible)

If a name is removed, blow up the person the arrow is pointing to.
If you HAVE to explode on somebody, then I'll rethink it.

See the problem here is that puns blows up in the '1 scum scenario' but you have puns blowing up in the 2 scum scenario. So if puns were the 1 scum we would mislynch Tony the following day every single time based on this.

No, puns doesn't explode in the '1 scum scenario'. I didnt leave an Avenue possible for that.

My issue with your plan is it works on figuring out Tony/Puns, while not giving us the identity of the person that was cleared in a 1 scum scenario.

Also, side note: what if lynching Scare was pushed yesterday because testing MZero yesterday wouldve revealed Ben as Scum?
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Who was seriously against the idea except for Puns, though?

And yes I know you've already called him scum with Ben before.

And we lynched Scare because he quit the game after being fake scum scanned, more than anything else. If he actually bothers to play the game for the first 40 hours yesterday, we'd have lynched MZero.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Also, side note: what if lynching Scare was pushed yesterday because testing MZero yesterday wouldve revealed Ben as Scum?

This was a nonstarter, we don't even know if red counted towards mzero's ability which could have resulted in 0 names being removed or 1/2 names being removed that didn't count red.

.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

My issue with your plan is it works on figuring out Tony/Puns, while not giving us the identity of the person that was cleared in a 1 scum scenario.

Because that is absolutely a secondary concern? I don't see a realistic way to cover all the scenarios otherwise.
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Crescent-Moon posted...

Lynching the bomb will be Puns + Tony + X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 (might as well keep the notation the same).

If 1 person disappears, and it is Tony (that disappeared), Kill Puns. Puns will flip scum and we will know what it meant.

If 1 person disappears, and it is Puns (that disappeared), Kill Tony. Tony will flip scum and we will know what it meant.

If 0 people disappear, kill X1. If X1 dies we will know that Tony and Puns are BOTH confirmed town.

If 1 person disappears, but it is neither Tony nor Puns, kill X2. We will know 1 of the 2 is scum, but it wasn't confirmed which.
Caveat to this one: if X2 is the one that happens to disappear, then shoot either of Tony/Puns.
Either this will result in a dead scum (which will appear like one of the first scenarios to us) or it will result in Tony/Puns dying as town, and confirm the other is scum.

If 2 people disappear, kill EITHER of X3 or X4. If either of them is killed we will know that BOTH Puns and Tony are scum
For... Science?!.

Isn't this just FD's 4 person plan, but with less clarity?

I'm still feeling my plan is better. Tells us how many names were removed AND tells us which name was removed, except in one situation (unless MZero is allowed to not blow up, in which case, my plan is perfect)
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Switch to mine would be:

ONLY kill puns if 2 names are removed. Confirms him and Tony as Scum.
ONLY kill Zach is 0 names are removed. Confirms tony and puns as Town.

If 1 name is removed:

puns -> Tony -> me -> Death -> Crescent -> No explode (if possible)

If a name is removed, blow up the person the arrow is pointing to.
If you HAVE to explode on somebody, then I'll rethink it.

See the problem here is that puns blows up in the '1 scum scenario' but you have puns blowing up in the 2 scum scenario. So if puns were the 1 scum we would mislynch Tony the following day every single time based on this.

No, puns doesn't explode in the '1 scum scenario'. I didnt leave an Avenue possible for that.

You really did though.
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

My issue with your plan is it works on figuring out Tony/Puns, while not giving us the identity of the person that was cleared in a 1 scum scenario.

This is specifically why I was going with 4 instead of 6, though.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Crescent-Moon posted...

Lynching the bomb will be Puns + Tony + X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 (might as well keep the notation the same).

If 1 person disappears, and it is Tony (that disappeared), Kill Puns. Puns will flip scum and we will know what it meant.

If 1 person disappears, and it is Puns (that disappeared), Kill Tony. Tony will flip scum and we will know what it meant.

If 0 people disappear, kill X1. If X1 dies we will know that Tony and Puns are BOTH confirmed town.

If 1 person disappears, but it is neither Tony nor Puns, kill X2. We will know 1 of the 2 is scum, but it wasn't confirmed which.
Caveat to this one: if X2 is the one that happens to disappear, then shoot either of Tony/Puns.
Either this will result in a dead scum (which will appear like one of the first scenarios to us) or it will result in Tony/Puns dying as town, and confirm the other is scum.

If 2 people disappear, kill EITHER of X3 or X4. If either of them is killed we will know that BOTH Puns and Tony are scum
For... Science?!.

Isn't this just FD's 4 person plan, but with less clarity?

I'm still feeling my plan is better. Tells us how many names were removed AND tells us which name was removed, except in one situation (unless MZero is allowed to not blow up, in which case, my plan is perfect)

I copied his, right out of the wall he posted in it.

It was in the previous topic, I wanted it in this one.

FD, it is not a secondary concern. It's a free scan. We still get the same information we get from yours, but with extra, in mine.

And MZero's ability isn't a night action, so I would assume Red's unscannable status doesn't apply to it. That would be the logical assumption.
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

FD, it is not a secondary concern. It's a free scan. We still get the same information we get from yours, but with extra, in mine.

And MZero's ability isn't a night action, so I would assume Red's unscannable status doesn't apply to it. That would be the logical assumption.

Yours still has a glaring hole

Its an assumption you were willing to risk the game on then? No thank you.
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Crescent-Moon posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

My issue with your plan is it works on figuring out Tony/Puns, while not giving us the identity of the person that was cleared in a 1 scum scenario.

This is specifically why I was going with 4 instead of 6, though.

...why do you have a quote of han's words in my quote box as though i said them.

?
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