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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 209: Lord of the Lies
Suprak the Stud 12/01/18 12:00:49 AM #22:	More evidence that Ohio is lost and we should focus on different targets. Here are the popular vote margins from this year from all cumulative house races in "swing" states Trump won. These are pulled from Wikipedia "Unites States House of Representatives elections in ______, 2018" Pennsylvania: D +9.91 Wisconsin: D +7.69 Michigan: D +7.68 Iowa: D +3.98 Arizona: D +1.06 North Carolina: R +2.04 Texas: R +3.51 Georgia: R +4.54 Montana: R +4.63 Florida: R +5.25 Ohio: R +5.27 Democrats only need to win up to Michigan (where they had a +7.68 advantage in house popular vote) to get presidency back. Iowa and Arizona look good for them too, and even North Carolina, Texas (!!!), and Georgia/Montana (!!!!) were all under 5. But in this wave year, you had Florida and Ohio at the absolute bottom of all these states that could possibly flip. We can complain about Ohio being gerrymandered all we want, but we're losing by more than five points in the house popular vote, not even considering the governor race we lost by a similar margin. Florida you could make an argument for because the senate/governors races were both extremely close and Clinton did much better in Florida in 2016 than she did in Ohio. I would not give up on Florida yet because that is still within reach for the right candidate. Ohio, however, looks to be going the way of Missouri without any trends that are encouraging to the democrats (other than Sherrod Brown who is looking more and more like a miracle Jon Tester sort of senator). Dems should poor a ton of money into Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania (and ideally pick a candidate that does well in those states). Iowa and Arizona obviously are really high priority as well, and then maybe NC too. GA/TX/MT can all be lower tier targets with an eye on future growth. Florida is fine to focus on as well, but I really think there are like five or six other states that would flip before it. Ohio can be abandoned for now imho. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:913339844] in Politics C... [t:77254277]...</cite> <quote>More evidence that Ohio is lost and we should focus on different targets. Here are the popular vote margins from this year from all cumulative house races in "swing" states Trump won. These are pulled from Wikipedia "Unites States House of Representatives elections in ______, 2018" Pennsylvania: D +9.91 Wisconsin: D +7.69 Michigan: D +7.68 Iowa: D +3.98 Arizona: D +1.06 North Carolina: R +2.04 Texas: R +3.51 Georgia: R +4.54 Montana: R +4.63 Florida: R +5.25 Ohio: R +5.27 Democrats only need to win up to Michigan (where they had a +7.68 advantage in house popular vote) to get presidency back. Iowa and Arizona look good for them too, and even North Carolina, Texas (!!!), and Georgia/Montana (!!!!) were all under 5. But in this wave year, you had Florida and Ohio at the absolute bottom of all these states that could possibly flip. We can complain about Ohio being gerrymandered all we want, but we're losing by more than five points in the house popular vote, not even considering the governor race we lost by a similar margin. Florida you could make an argument for because the senate/governors races were both extremely close and Clinton did much better in Florida in 2016 than she did in Ohio. I would not give up on Florida yet because that is still within reach for the right candidate. Ohio, however, looks to be going the way of Missouri without any trends that are encouraging to the democrats (other than Sherrod Brown who is looking more and more like a miracle Jon Tester sort of senator). Dems should poor a ton of money into Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania (and ideally pick a candidate that does well in those states). Iowa and Arizona obviously are really high priority as well, and then maybe NC too. GA/TX/MT can all be lower tier targets with an eye on future growth. Florida is fine to focus on as well, but I really think there are like five or six other states that would flip before it. Ohio can be abandoned for now imho. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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