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Topic	Movie and Box Office Topic: Prepping for Endgame
MetalmindStats 08/10/19 12:51:18 AM #172:	v_charon posted... Stories looks great in previews. It's comparing well to other horror films that opened up with around 25m, though I don't expect it to reach that as it's likely front-loaded quite a bit. Dora did okay as well, that prediction should be decent for it. I expect The Lion King to reclaim #1 this week as Hobbs & Shaw probably dips quite a bit. TLK was the #1 film on Thursday. Between summer previews being more frontloaded and a C CinemaScore indicating lacking word of mouth, I'd expect Scary Stories to settle right around my prediction. Deadline says $21M right now, but I think that early estimate will prove a bit too optimistic over the weekend. Dora started its previews at 4 PM, so it's going to be frontloaded relative to past comparable movies such as Christopher Robin. Deadline's currently calling it at $16M, which seems about right to me. Another factor that's likely dragging down its weekend is poor reception from the kids who are liable to drive attendance for this type of movie, especially given its brand (reportedly a mere 3.5/5 stars from audience tracking service PostTrak). TLK was also number 1 on Wednesday, but H&S has already proven itself to be walk-up heavy, and I suspect it's also weekend-heavy, plus TLK has much more audience overlap with the new movies than H&S. Still, my $28M forecast for the latter does look a bit high right now. --- "I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do." You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you! <cite>MetalmindStats posted [p:925870473] in Movie and ... [t:77659136]...</cite> <quote>v_charon posted...</cite> <quote>Stories looks great in previews. It's comparing well to other horror films that opened up with around 25m, though I don't expect it to reach that as it's likely front-loaded quite a bit. Dora did okay as well, that prediction should be decent for it. I expect The Lion King to reclaim #1 this week as Hobbs & Shaw probably dips quite a bit. TLK was the #1 film on Thursday.</quote> Between summer previews being more frontloaded and a C CinemaScore indicating lacking word of mouth, I'd expect Scary Stories to settle right around my prediction. Deadline says $21M right now, but I think that early estimate will prove a bit too optimistic over the weekend. Dora started its previews at 4 PM, so it's going to be frontloaded relative to past comparable movies such as Christopher Robin. Deadline's currently calling it at $16M, which seems about right to me. Another factor that's likely dragging down its weekend is poor reception from the kids who are liable to drive attendance for this type of movie, especially given its brand (reportedly a mere 3.5/5 stars from audience tracking service PostTrak). TLK was also number 1 on Wednesday, but H&S has already proven itself to be walk-up heavy, and I suspect it's also weekend-heavy, plus TLK has much more audience overlap with the new movies than H&S. Still, my $28M forecast for the latter does look a bit high right now. --- "I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do." You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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