LogFAQs > #936738976

Jakyl25 posted...

Okay, what models do you think hes referring to that hes been involved in?

Financial models! Risk models!

Now that you mention it, he wrote about an experience he had as a casino owner in Atlantic City - he lost $6 million to a Japanese high roller and wanted to win it back, so he hired an expert to analyze how to do it. And what the expert found was that the longer the game goes on, the bigger effect the house advantage has relative to luck, so you want to keep the high roller gambling as long as possible.

So Trump or the expert (I forget who) came up with a plan - he made a handshake deal with the high roller that he would bring $12 million and wouldn't leave until he had either doubled his money or lost it all (or some long period of time had elapsed, presumably). And there was some maximum bet per hand of baccarat, as there always is, so he would have to get a pretty high number of hands ahead to reach the $12 million. The plan worked, the high roller hit a hot run early and won $10 million, but per the deal, he couldn't walk away until he hit $12 million, and he gave it all back and $10 million more. Then according to the high roller Trump dishonored the deal and discontinued the game having won back his $6 million and a profit of $4 million.

Now this is not a sophisticated model and it's quite strange that a casino owner would brag about finding a plan as simple as "try to keep the gambler playing in the casino as long as possible" but this is Trump and he bragged about it.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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