Peak daily deaths at 2,600 something doesn't seem realistic at this point, at current rate daily death count could reach 2,600 two days from now. What I suspect could also happen is that this could become a wave model rather than a hill model with a ripple effect rippling from NY to other states since there's no restrictions on traveling between states. So in this model daily death would peak at around 10,000 for the first wave and then perhaps 100,000 for the second wave and so on. The reason why the second wave is larger is because its wider area of coverage due to larger size of the ripple. Many areas that had been infected in the past can then be reinfected since people can travel bouncing infection waves back and forth, this would create a continuous situation in which it could take years of prolonged mass infection before a cure is found. Of course if a cure or vaccine is found early on, then the numbers could be lower.
The projection could fall anywhere in the entire shaded area, the 2600 is just the middle point of that projection. I see similar stuff with projected hurricane paths every year in Florida.
Like for April 4th it projected 1360 but the range could have been anywhere between 1133 and 1555. The actual number for yesterday seems to have been 1331