LogFAQs > #946526869

AFC East

1. Miami Dolphins
2. New England Patriots
3. Buffalo Bills
4. New York Jets

The Dolphins have been declared the sole leader in team rating (talent) for the first time in our history, but they did lose their long-time RG Kendall Simmons, lost a bunch of key reserves in RFA, and had a whatever draft. It doesn't help that they lost their stud RT for more than half the season, and the league's best WR for multiple games. It would be a stunner if they lose the division, but they certainly are worse off to begin this season than they ended it last season. The question is what kind of seed will they get. Their toughest part of their schedule is in the middle of the season, so if they wish to have a first round bye for the fourth straight season, they need to keep their health and avoid upsets along the way. Even if seeding doesn't go their way, they should still be among the Super Bowl favorites given their star power and reliable production from them.

I could honestly go in any direction here, but given the Bills have plenty of question marks and the Jets once again were screwed over by injuries, I will say the Pats repeat as the second place finisher for the third straight season. For starters, their defense has been generally reliable. They did lose DT Clifton Dickson due to cap reasons, but they did have former #33 overall pick Brandon Williams ready to start. They replaced mediocre MLB Ken Reid with a much better player in Clifton Thompson, and they also added to the CB corps Bashaud Breeland who won the #1 job out of the preseason. It isn't unreasonable to think that the additions of Thompson and Breeland outweigh the loss of Dickson. The offense though is something else. They do have a great OL, and oft-injured HB Dexter McCluster does have a career 4.4 YPC. The passing game though has a chance to be among the league's worst. They lost their top two WRs from last season, leaving them with one of the league's weakest WR corps. Combine that with a dying TE Heath Miller and QB Cam Newton who passed for 2200 yards and a 70.1 passer rating, and this offense desperately needs McCluster to not miss a game after having missed 14 of the past 32 games. Another knock against them is that they unnecessarily cut K Mason Crosby and P Dustin Colquitt and replaced them with players a combined 41 points lower than them. That hurt the team rating and could ultimately cost them a win or two. The combo of defense, OL, and McCluster should keep them in the playoff hunt, but they don't have a high ceiling and are in a fragile position that could quickly go south.

The Bills were one of the league's worst teams last season with both their offense and defense finishing in the bottom 10. Both of those figures should improve, even if it may not be by much. It cost them the services of a potential hall of fame SS, but the Bills got much needed help on the DL with getting Babatunde Oshinowo from the Raiders. I wish they would have done better to help out the end spots than D'Qwell Jackson and a sub-80 rookie, but I guess Oshinowo will have to carry the load like Kris Jenkins did. The offense has a chance to be league average with a potential star in the making in HB Todd Gurley and the best QB they've had since Brady Quinn in Jimmy Clausen, but the OL still has a long way to go. What I am most worried about is they inexplicably signed two 84+ WRs, bringing their total to three...again. In a defensive and run-driven league, it just doesn't make sense, and the Bills especially could have used the savings to beef up areas of much greater importance in the OL or defense. If there's one saving grace, it is that the schedule isn't particular tough. They virtually escaped the preseason unscatched, so that also helps.

I was all prepared to put the Jets second, but then the offense was hit hard with injuries, and they will be without their top QB, HB, and WR for multiple games. If they enter the bye 1-4 or worse, which I think has decent odds of happening, it might be too large of a hole to recover from to enter the playoff discussion and maybe even the division cellar. I say that as the Rams went like 0-6 to begin the season in S12 only to end up 8-8 and NFC West champions, but the AFC East is a fair bit better than the NFC West was that season. The Jets have a pretty well-rounded team, but they've underperformed a bit and have also been quite unlucky. It's starting to become a trend, so my enthuasiasm for this team has been tempered some. There is a chance that the injuries do not set them back though. They have a pretty formidable OL after adding LT Travelle Wharton in free agency, and two of the backups stepping (QB Johnny Manziel and HB Selvin Young) do have good track records. Manziel in fact sits 9th in career passer rating among players with 250+ attempts. If both do well to begin the season, I can see the Jets being 3-2 entering their bye, and those theoretical two additional wins could be the difference.
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