LogFAQs > #980353989

Finally home and on PC. I've been mulling over the whole thing trying to wrap my brain around it and the different scenarios and it's hard to find logic that really fits everything that we know. It stands to reason that there's things we don't know and it's also possible that scum behaved illogically for precisely the kind of distraction that today has become.

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I'm going to first assume that Ctes is innocent and truthful about how his role works.

If so, what do we know?

For one, his role sucks. It's not a good role. It has potential, but it's significantly worse than 50/50, I don't think it would ever be in our best interest for him to bet his own life. The odds are too slim, the EV is too low and the chance of town death is too high. And even in instances where itdoes work it's such a slow anti-tempo role. Making a fantastic guess only to get a prosty scan the following night? That's basically just an every-other-night prosty who can only act if they are also a predictive God.

But sure, we're saying he's town, and he has a shitty role, moving on. Next we can pretty safely say that scum assumes he scans innocent and always would scan innocent. Even in a world where Ulti is scum with Lopen's claim he would have no reason not to believe town ctes scans innocent.

Scum also would have no reason prior to today to believe that Ctes would have any trouble claiming his role, because why would he?

So if Ulti is town, the redirection between Red/Ctes was to take a scan on red and turn it into a second "Ctes is innocent" result. But the kirby roleblock on Ulti was not anticipated.
This could support red being scum trying to avoid a guilty scan on himself.
This could support MI being scum trying to avoid a town scan on red and becoming the presumptive lynch.

Alternatively, if Ult is scum, the redirection between Red/Ctes was irrelevant to the scan result because the scan we would receive would be a lie anyways. Ulti would simply say he received a Ctes result against despite targeting red. Now that's murkier because Ulti not only claimed to have targeted MI (which doesn't fit the redirection) but also because he knew he was roleblocked before Kirby said. So if he's scum then he still did something that wasn't a kill. And it wasn't the redirection because that still occurred. It also wouldn't be vote suppression because Ctes in this scenario is assumed town and claims to have done it to himself. So scum ulti does something, gets roleblocked and realizes now he can't claim to have received a second Ctes scan, so for good measure he claims he wasn't even targeted red to begin with?
For the same reason as above this could speak to red being both scum or town. Either a ploy to protect red for a fake guilty scan (though Ulti could just fake an innocent scan on red if they wanted to commit to it) or to protect MI from the inno "scan" on MI.

It's much more convoluted for Ulti to be scum in that scenario so I still buy him as town.

But that still doesn't give a clear answer on the redirection. If we're assuming the scans exist, then it could still have either been to prevent a red guilty scan OR to prevent a red innocent scan. So the redirect had to be both red and someone who was previously scanned to prevent any new information from being gained last night. That leaves Ctes or Death.

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So trying to work it out in this way, that is what I would conclude if I assume Ctes is town and truthful:
-Likely a scum between Red/MI since either stands most to benefit from the redirection
-And possibly a bonus point in favor of Godfather Death theory since Ctes was selected for the redirection rather than him.

I don't think it says much about anyone else, but I could be missing an angle, it's confusing.