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LeonhartFour 05/14/17 1:02:17 AM #103: |
UltimaterializerX posted...
Wouldn't even be close. 2002 probably would break 60% on it given how this contest has played out. so you think 2002 beats 1994 then? yeah no --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 05/14/17 1:04:57 AM #104: |
(also 2002 has a GTA and a Warcraft that would probably lose to their 2004 counterparts so I don't see how that helps it)
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#105 | Post #105 was unavailable or deleted. |
SwiftyDC 05/14/17 1:13:26 AM #106: |
Never underestimate a great Samus pic.
--- Dilated Chemist DpObliVion is the one true king of Guru's. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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creativename 05/14/17 1:14:11 AM #107: |
UltimaterializerX posted...
LeonhartFour posted...UltimaterializerX posted...Wouldn't even be close. 2002 probably would break 60% on it given how this contest has played out. That's only with SFF and rallies. Otherwise it applies fine. Leon is right, 1994 beats 2002. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Metal_DK 05/14/17 1:14:40 AM #108: |
OrangeCrush980 posted...
Metal_DK posted...No, it wouldn't of. FF12 barely has a fanbase (fun fact, FFX will be the last FF worth a damn in anything gfaqs contest related). KH2 doesnt have much contest strength anymore either. Most people have moved on to WRPGs anyway, and Skryim (despite it being meh imo) is praised by plenty of people. That was a long time ago --- Casual Revolution 2007 - 2016 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ninkendo 05/14/17 1:15:19 AM #109: |
I feel 1991 would be putting similar numbers on 2011 that 1994 is though (if not better!)
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LusterSoldier 05/14/17 1:32:31 AM #110: |
At first I thought the insane board votes from this contest was a product of our extremely low vote totals and the early voters making up a larger percentage of the board vote, but I've changed this position when I saw how much the pictures matter. This contest is our most picture dependent contest we've ever had, and I now believe the insane board votes come from early voters having a clear idea of what to vote for before the match starts and being very unlikely to be influenced by the match picture. People who vote based on the match picture are not likely to vote during the board vote and hold off on voting until they put more thought into their vote, including looking at the match pictures or using the ? Mark icons.
The match pictures matter far more in this contest than any previous contest and this has created a sharp divide between early voters and the voters after the first 5-10 minutes of the match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 05/14/17 1:38:29 AM #111: |
LeonhartFour posted...
pjbasis posted...holding 94 under 60% is a moral victory Eh, I'd take the unwinnable matchup over having a winnable one and losing because of the match pic! --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 05/14/17 1:41:41 AM #112: |
UltimaterializerX posted...
The transitive property hasn't mattered in these contests in almost a decade. It never stopped mattering, actually. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 05/14/17 1:43:01 AM #113: |
also 1994 continues to leak percentage at an alarming rate so I feel a bit better
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creativename 05/14/17 1:45:47 AM #114: |
LusterSoldier posted...
At first I thought the insane board votes from this contest was a product of our extremely low vote totals and the early voters making up a larger percentage of the board vote, but I've changed this position when I saw how much the pictures matter. This contest is our most picture dependent contest we've ever had, and I now believe the insane board votes come from early voters having a clear idea of what to vote for before the match starts and being very unlikely to be influenced by the match picture. People who vote based on the match picture are not likely to vote during the board vote and hold off on voting until they put more thought into their vote, including looking at the match pictures or using the ? Mark icons. Seems reasonable, smart analysis. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UItimaterializer 05/14/17 1:49:17 AM #115: |
LeonhartFour posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...The transitive property hasn't mattered in these contests in almost a decade. I'm not getting into a stats argument with people but they don't even remotely matter anymore. I would argue they never did but rallies have really proven it. Our worst contests have all been the most predictable. Not an accident. --- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 05/14/17 2:03:39 AM #116: |
UItimaterializer posted...
I'm not getting into a stats argument you haven't actually had a stats argument in over 12 years anyway you've done nothing but dismiss and handwave away anything you disagree with since 2005 UItimaterializer posted... Our worst contests have all been the most predictable. Not an accident. yeah it's also not relevant to stats --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 05/14/17 2:42:28 AM #117: |
I don't know what it means to say that the transitive property doesn't matter. It's obvious from the results that transitivity holds up most of the time. Although it's not a factor, which is generally the thing that can matter (or not).
--- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UItimaterializer 05/14/17 3:09:59 AM #118: |
LeonhartFour posted...
UItimaterializer posted...I'm not getting into a stats argument I've hated advanced metrics since long before 2005. It just hadn't ruined our contests yet. Russel Westbrook and James Harden being MVP candidates over Lebron is a joke. --- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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#119 | Post #119 was unavailable or deleted. |
LeonhartFour 05/14/17 3:12:12 AM #120: |
They never ruined the contests. The most predictable contests--this one, Series, and Rivalry Rumble--all had zero data going into them, so you're tilting at windmills blaming stats for them being predictable.
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LeonhartFour 05/14/17 3:15:03 AM #121: |
also Westbrook winning the MVP is actually very anti-metrics because metrics don't place much added value on triple-doubles
Harden winning would be the metrics MVP LeBron shouldn't win because he coasted through the regular season and deliberately sat out of 15% of it --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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#122 | Post #122 was unavailable or deleted. |
LeonhartFour 05/14/17 3:24:02 AM #123: |
They have an award for being the best postseason player, too.
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UItimaterializer 05/14/17 3:33:17 AM #124: |
MVPs are seen as being more important than Finals MVP in basketball, which I have never understood.
--- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 05/14/17 3:34:02 AM #125: |
Not really. People remember who wins championship MVPs, too.
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transcience 05/14/17 5:45:48 AM #126: |
1991 is so screwed
--- add the c and back away iphonesience ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Safer_777 05/14/17 5:49:19 AM #127: |
So I just checked the results...Yeah my 1991 pick isn't happening in the next round. Well I have 3 days until that happens so I hope I score more KO's in the gurus. Assuming that the favorites will win until then.
--- Why do we exist? What happens when we stop existing? What is Life? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transcience 05/14/17 5:51:47 AM #128: |
man, I just looked at the updater. 1991 has lost the last hour and it's coming up on a day vote against KH. it probably pulls away but man what an upset this would be.
--- add the c and back away iphonesience ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Team Rocket Elite 05/14/17 7:16:24 AM #129: |
How exactly do you justify a deep 1995 prediction without relying on the principles that make the X-Stats work? 1995 going deep relies on CT being stronger than OoT and being able to carry the entire year on it back. CT never really directly beat anyone that strong so it relies on margin of victory being important for showing it can hang with OoT.
--- My bracket got smashed by DpObliVion. Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the BGE15 Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Bolto4 05/14/17 8:15:06 AM #130: |
Ummm, what the hell 91, and we thought 94 was possibly laying an egg, this is a gigantic egg from 91 sheesh
--- Blop ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ff6man 05/14/17 8:20:11 AM #131: |
My '94 pick next round is feeling better and better.
--- Smash Wii U username: McTavish Congrats to DPOblivion, 2015 guru champ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Nanis23 05/14/17 8:20:18 AM #132: |
Hmm well I dunno it's not like 2002 first image in rotation is Metroid Prime and it's followed by Kingdom Hearts 2 which was able to put 45% on Melee hmm what a weak year 2002 is clearly 91 is underperforming!
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ZeldaTPLink 05/14/17 8:29:08 AM #133: |
If both 1991 and 1994 lay one egg each don't they cancel each one out?
Alternatively, how does 2002 compare to 2004? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transcience 05/14/17 8:30:41 AM #134: |
91 and 94 probably isn't even a strength battle if the late 80s/early 90s matches so far are any indication.
--- add the c and back away iphonesience ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 05/14/17 9:54:17 AM #135: |
Man, 1994 has lost nearly 15% since the freeze. That's kind of insane. Both matches have gone from "whoa lookin' good" to "ehhhh not so much," but 1994 probably still has the edge.
transcience posted... man, I just looked at the updater. 1991 has lost the last hour and it's coming up on a day vote against KH. it probably pulls away but man what an upset this would be. thankfully it's Sunday and years don't seem to have the same trends as the games in them anyway 1997 has had the exact opposite trends FFVII normally does --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transcience 05/14/17 10:01:41 AM #136: |
yeah. without looking, I think 94 did this with 04 as well? maybe 04 is our early vote darling of the contest. it's all SNES so it makes perfect sense.
--- add the c and back away iphonesience ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transcience 05/14/17 10:02:04 AM #137: |
although Mario still does seem to do best in the am
--- add the c and back away iphonesience ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 05/14/17 10:02:51 AM #138: |
ZeldaTPLink posted...
Alternatively, how does 2002 compare to 2004? Currently, 2002 would need to beat 2004 with 55.11% for 1991 and 1994 to be equal. 2004 is worth 53.74% on 2011 and 58.26% on 2006. 1991 gets 72.81% on 2010 right now. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 05/14/17 10:03:53 AM #139: |
transcience posted...
yeah. without looking, I think 94 did this with 04 as well? maybe 04 is our early vote darling of the contest. it's all SNES so it makes perfect sense. 1994 lost about 8-9% after the freeze last round, so it's comparable, but still not quite to this extent. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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CaptainOfCrush 05/14/17 10:12:13 AM #140: |
Well, after taking a look at these morning percentages...
1994 has dropped like a rock, but so has 1991, to an even more alarming extent because it might end up winning this with only 53% while 94 should at least stay above 60%. Would 2002 beat 2011? Maybe (or probably), but not with enough legroom for me to consider 1991 the favorite next round. This has definitely rekindled my confidence in ninety-fo, my pre-contest baby. I honestly thought that we might have been overrating 1991 but was just as high on it as everyone after that R1 performance, which will probably wind up being a mistake. That result can simply be explained by the fact that there is like... no reason for anyone on GameFAQs to vote for a weak NES year over a strong SNES year. I still think 1991 has a shot next round, but it will be because of the SNES taking center stage (seriously, give it like 4 SNES pics to really hammer that fact home) - NOT because of its games. Last night, I started thinking about how the big 91/94 games rank in power, and I figure it's something like 1. Super Mario World 2. Final Fantasy VI 3. Super Metroid 4. Mega Man X 5. Donkey Kong Country 6. Final Fantasy IV 7. Sonic & Knuckles 8. Sonic the Hedgehog 9. Street Fighter II A 1991 rep tops the list, but then I have four straight 1994 games before we see another. Long story short - and yes this has been long winded, but I haven't posted in a while and wanted to throw my thoughts out here - 1991 needs the SNES to really sway people. --- Yoblazer http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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CaptainOfCrush 05/14/17 10:16:42 AM #141: |
Also, the higher we talk up 2002, the more we essentially argue that 2006 would have dispatched 2011 (and with room to spare!) with comparable picture placement. 2002 is a somewhat shallow year that's very heavily dependent on its Metroid + KH anchors, and those two are, at best, on even footing with TP + KHII (and 2006 has more depth).
This isn't me being salty anymore - just saying that we're indirectly giving 2006 a LOT of picture allowance. --- Yoblazer http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transcience 05/14/17 10:18:08 AM #142: |
I'm not convinced Mario World is above FF6. I think 94 looks good and always have.
--- add the c and back away iphonesience ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transcience 05/14/17 10:20:23 AM #143: |
oh, and I'd certainly take Sonic over DKC
--- add the c and back away iphonesience ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ff6man 05/14/17 10:20:46 AM #144: |
Huh, I just noticed I took '96 over '97 next round.
What in the world was I thinking. --- Smash Wii U username: McTavish Congrats to DPOblivion, 2015 guru champ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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CaptainOfCrush 05/14/17 10:21:45 AM #145: |
Agreed, but we haven't seen the effect that consoles might have, so I'm giving 1991 a real chance just because of that.
1991 pic rotation SNES Super Mario World NO REALLY, SNES Final Fantasy II DID WE MENTION SNES --- Yoblazer http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transcience 05/14/17 10:23:16 AM #146: |
you guys and your NES and SNES and n64
--- add the c and back away iphonesience ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 05/14/17 10:24:19 AM #147: |
I don't think the SNES is gonna matter when most of its best games are on the other side of the match
--- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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CaptainOfCrush 05/14/17 10:25:57 AM #148: |
DKC's never gotten a fair chance to show its stuff in these contests, but I'd place it at least a step above DKC2 and was impressed with it in the 2009 contest. It managed to beat Doom in R1 despite LttP there to drain the SNES life force out of the poll.
--- Yoblazer http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Yuri_LowelI 05/14/17 10:26:50 AM #149: |
Is any year going to at least try and hit 40 against 98? Because it looks like nothing will so far.
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CaptainOfCrush 05/14/17 10:29:06 AM #150: |
Well, LttP hit 40% on OoT last contest. If 1992/98 becomes a weird Zelda/Zelda proxy battle then I could see 92 coming out of it mighty respectable.
--- Yoblazer http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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scaryice 05/14/17 10:34:42 AM #151: |
CaptainOfCrush posted...
DKC's never gotten a fair chance to show its stuff in these contests, but I'd place it at least a step above DKC2 and was impressed with it in the 2009 contest. It managed to beat Doom in R1 despite LttP there to drain the SNES life force out of the poll. DKC1 would lose to DKC2. Just like MGS3 beat MGS1. --- Congrats to DpOblivion, winner of the BGE3 Guru ... Copied to Clipboard!
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CaptainOfCrush 05/14/17 10:37:07 AM #152: |
I feel really confident in the opposite. DKC2 may be the internet darling, but no one actually dislikes DKC1. It's still beloved, the hype behind it at the time was huge (GameFAQs is old enough to remember this), and it probably has a much higher playrate. I'd be really surprised if Diddy pulled that one out.
--- Yoblazer http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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