Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1272

(+) Yeah! (+)

LeonhartFour posted...

also as we remember how strong 1994 is can we take a minute to remember how friggin' good Link's Awakening looked in 2009

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3456-division-3-round-1-ff3-mega-man-x-ps-iv-zelda-la
https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3483-division-3-round-2-ff3-zelda-la-sonic-2-mk2
https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3496-division-3-final-zelda-lttp-s-metroid-ff3-zelda-la

This got glossed over, but I just want to point out that results like these put LA somewhere in the Top 20 Games on the site overall. The lower end of 20, but yeah. It's probably the strongest game that didn't make the field in 2015 (depending on how much you think Brawl has fallen).
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It might be the strongest game that got snubbed from THIS contest, too...!

Well, that or KH2.
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I don't like LA. I thought it was BY FAR the easiest game to beat. It made WW look difficult.

I don't remember anything in WW as challenging as Eagle's Tower. But maybe LA is easier than I remember; I haven't played it since I was like 15.
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Linkzcap posted...

I think the match pics are going to screw 2005's chances, even though 2005 has a better lineup.

The problem is people will instantly know 03 is a Zelda year but have to wait until the 3rd pic to see 05 is RE4's and SotC's year. 05 still has a shot to win, at this point most people might be actually looking into the full year before voting.

2003/2005 will be the match to test out the picture order theory. 2005 has the better line-up, but the 2 best games occupy the bottom 2 spots.
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Match XXVII – Round 2 – 1998 vs. 1992

Previous Results

1998
Round 1: Defeated 1993, 85.93% - 14.07%

1992
Round 1: Defeated 2016, 72.92% - 27.08%

Analysis

To be honest I wasn’t very impressed with 1998’s performance last round. Maybe Doom and Myst bring in a lot of respect votes or perhaps the PC fans, while small are very loyal. I guess it may be due to our high expectations for the year to dominate the entire contest. 1992 did as expected, easily dispatching 2016.

It’s a shame 1992 was thrown to 1998 so quickly though I guess someone has to go up against the juggernaut in the early rounds. 1992 is very Nintendo heavy and when your opponent has Ocarina of Time things could turn ugly rather quickly. Link to the Past did hold up well against Ocarina of Time during the 2015 contest so perhaps the SFF won’t be that terrible. Ocarina of Time does appear first in the rotation while Link to the Past appears second, but 1992 does have the Triforce in the year picture.

The match will give us a better picture as to 1998’s capabilities. I feel it would have to severely underperform for anyone to think it could be threatened and besides next round the picture will have more games which will only be an advantage for the year.

charmander6000’s Bracket: 1998 > 1992

charmander6000’s Prediction: 1998 wins, 64.27% - 35.73%
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Match XXVIII – Round 2 – 2003 vs. 2005

Previous Results

2003
Round 1: Defeated 2013, 58.03% - 41.97%

2005
Wildcard: Defeated 1978, 85.53% - 14.47%
Round 1: Defeated 2015, 59.02% - 40.98%

Analysis

This was one of the final matches I locked my pick in and after the first round I still don’t know which year will win it. I expected 2013 and 2015 to be close so then 2003 and 2005 went on and finished about 1% from each other. If it came down to it I would have taken 2013 pre-contest, but I would be very nervous about it.

Between the two years Wind Waker is the strongest game, but then 2005 has the next two strongest games before Knights of the Old Republic backs-up 2003. Among the bottom two games Disgaea is the weakest and I have no idea where Final Fantasy X-2 would rank though I’d imagine it would be around God of War and Phoenix Wright.

I think this will come down to the order of the picture. Both Resident Evil 4 and Shadow of the Colossus are the bottom two pictures while Wind Waker and Knights of the Old Republic are the second and third pictures respectively. I’m also more inclined to bet on a year with both Square and Nintendo than a year without one.

charmander6000’s Bracket: 2003 > 2005

charmander6000’s Prediction: 2003 wins, 53.12% - 46.88%
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LeonhartFour posted...

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3456-division-3-round-1-ff3-mega-man-x-ps-iv-zelda-la

lol phantasy star iv
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Yeah, GameFAQs clearly did not play the Genesis.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I don't remember anything in WW as challenging as Eagle's Tower. But maybe LA is easier than I remember; I haven't played it since I was like 15.

As long as all agree that blowing on a DS to fight a Zelda boss is fucking stupid then you guys can like whatever games in whatever order.
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Lets go 1998 lets go 2003
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I feel pics may decide a match yet again. 2003 has WW 2nd, while 2005 has its two best games third and fourth. I do not like these rotating pics at all.

charmander6000 posted...

Yeah, GameFAQs clearly did not play the Genesis.

I loved the Genesis >_> I'm also the rare Phantasy Star fan. III was good, with a multi-generational arc with multiple endings. Very unique.

Somehow lost 2 perfects
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yeah I think 2003 is in trouble because it's already struggling and should theoretically have bracket votes
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Augh, 75 perfects/-1s, and of course I'm in the bottom 25.

And 2003 better pull this off.
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it's sad one of these two crappy years is going to win two matches
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2003 is picking up
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go my resident evil 4
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And now 2003 is trying to pull away. Maybe 2005 got the board vote because of PW1.
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surprise 2005 actually had the bracket votes
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Augh, 75 perfects/-1s, and of course I'm in the bottom 25.

And 2003 better pull this off.

Augh! I am in the same group of 25!!!
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Ohhhh yeaaa I'm 50th. Not gonna be there for long because took 1995 > 2001 damnit
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spooky96 posted...

Not gonna be there for long because took 1995 > 2001 damnit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcsfrOGOP6o
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spooky96 posted...

Ohhhh yeaaa I'm 50th. Not gonna be there for long because took 1995 > 2001 damnit

Well, at least I have a chance of taking your spot until 97 dashes my hopes and defeats 96.
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Yesterday's stats:

1991 – 50.00%
2002 – 45.09%
2010 – 26.72%
1988 – 12.46%

1994 – 50.00%
2004 – 41.31%
2011 – 37.98%
2006 – 34.29%
1981 – 17.63%

2004 gets 58.50% on 2006 and 54.03% on 2011.

Also, vote-in X-Stats with 1981 and 1983 suggests 1996 gets 60% on 1994.
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Hmm, both 1998 and 2003 went up after the board vote.
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2003 holding steady.

10-minute X-Stats:

1998 – 50.00%
1992 – 25.78%
1993 – 14.08%
2016 – 13.96%

2003 – 50.00%
2013 – 41.97%
2005 – 41.32%
2015 – 33.87%
1978 – 11.96%
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16 people fell off the Top 50. xNinjaOfChaosx, jinfreestyle, KingLionel, alblito, Janus5k, TexWolf_1729, elithebarrowboy, mr_umaro, JMForte85, Chr0noid, 00ragerage, Mexicola, LaLiLLuLeLo, Step_In, aewe and owyn_merrilin did not have both 1991 and 1994 winning.
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Casuals overrate Skyrim big time, only 35% correctly picked
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Yesterday's charts:

Time | 1991 | 2002 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 62.93% | 37.07% | 232 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 57.89% | 42.11% | 1496 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 53.38% | 46.62% | 3460 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 52.69% | 47.31% | 1843 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 55.58% | 44.42% | 4192 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 55.36% | 44.64% | 3938 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 55.23% | 44.77% | 889 | (22:00-24:00)

Time | 1994 | 2011 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 75.43% | 24.57% | 232 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 66.93% | 33.07% | 1497 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 60.99% | 39.01% | 3471 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 60.25% | 39.75% | 1834 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 61.89% | 38.11% | 4190 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 61.81% | 38.19% | 3933 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 63.03% | 36.97% | 890 | (22:00-24:00)
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spooky96 posted...

Casuals overrate Skyrim big time, only 35% correctly picked

Well, 1994 had just under 50% winning the first match, so the percentage was going to be pretty low here.
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If I had picked 2005 over 2003 I would be so pissed right now; 2003 has 8 games in it's Notable games list while 2005 just has 5.

PSI_NESS posted...

If I had picked 2005 over 2003 I would be so pissed right now; 2003 has 8 games in it's Notable games list while 2005 just has 5.

I mean 2005 is kind of a bad year
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Oh it was up against 2004, thats why
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Maybe 2005 had a good board vote due to the picture. Early voters are more likely to have checked what games came out in each year in advance so they can cast their vote faster.
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Also some FUN WITH NUMBERS for 1995/2001. In order for 1995 to beat 2001, the following things would need to be able to happen:

1987 would need to get 66.81% or better on 2008.
1985 would need to get 63.50% or better on 2009.
2014 would need to get 67.32% or less on 1986.

good luck 1995
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LeonhartFour posted...

PSI_NESS posted...

If I had picked 2005 over 2003 I would be so pissed right now; 2003 has 8 games in it's Notable games list while 2005 just has 5.

I mean 2005 is kind of a bad year

I mean sure if you dont like good games :p

As I stated yesterday, the pictures don't matter for the board vote since the early voters generally have a good idea of what they want to vote for before the matches begin. They're very unlikely to be influenced by the match pictures. The picture factor becomes more noticeable after the board vote wears off because you start getting the voters who put more thought into their vote (and thus don't vote during the board vote).
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I fear something ugly like Chrono Trigger 25% and 2001 75% or something like that. Any year which has been way too dependent on one game has had to face a beating like that.
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Assuming 2003 wins today then my perfect bracket is RIP in the next match because I have 1995 winning... Unless it can pull off the upset. Its a 90s year so it has that going for it >__>

My bracket is doomed anyway cause I went with 97 > 98 what was I thinking when I did that.

LeonhartFour posted...

Also some FUN WITH NUMBERS for 1995/2001. In order for 1995 to beat 2001, the following things would need to be able to happen:

1987 would need to get 66.81% or better on 2008.
1985 would need to get 63.50% or better on 2009.
2014 would need to get 67.32% or less on 1986.

good luck 1995

1995 was clearly hurt by the Round 1/2 pictures. I don't know if any attempts will be made to adjust the X-Stats for the picture factor (mainly for 1995 and 2006). If you're not interested in doing those kind of adjustments, I bet KP would take up that challenge instead.
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LeonhartFour posted...

PSI_NESS posted...

If I had picked 2005 over 2003 I would be so pissed right now; 2003 has 8 games in it's Notable games list while 2005 just has 5.

I mean 2005 is kind of a bad year

In your opinion because all you play is rpgs or something. I'm not having a hobbit it's annoying when people dismiss years becuase it doesn't have a ff or big Nintendo game.

2005 had some outstanding games and some of my fav of all time. God of war ninja gaiden black resident evil 4 shadow of the colosssus devil may cry 3 metal gear solid 3 (Europe for me but still) and the 360 came out as well.

It's all about preference. It seems if a year didn't have a big rpg or something it's not going to do well. But if this site was action game orientated 2005 would be up there. We got dmc3 god of war and NGB in the same year. No other year has a better lineup of pure action games and that's my favourite genre.
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LusterSoldier posted...

I don't know if any attempts will be made to adjust the X-Stats

based on what

and for what reason

I don't make arbitrary adjustments

and we'll never have this contest again so there's no reason to adjust anything
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2005 seems to be crapping the bed
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KamikazePotato posted...

2005 seems to be crapping the bed

I mean it's kind of a bad year
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LeonhartFour posted...

based on what

and for what reason

I don't make arbitrary adjustments

Based on certain years being hurt by bad pictures. Without the adjustments, we'd have years like 1987 looking much better in comparison to 2001 than it should be.

I'm not saying you should make arbitrary adjustments.
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Heyyyy I made it to the leaderboard! I mean, I have 2013 winning today so that won't last long, but at least I can say I was on it!
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KamikazePotato posted...

2005 seems to be crapping the bed

2003 is closer to the 90s then 2005 is.

Yeah but it's up against 2003. Two of the pics are freaking Disgaea and FFX-2! I refuse to believe FFX-2 is worth something!

Time to get all pic conspiracy again: I think sticking the two big guns of 2005 in the last pic rotation slots hurts it somewhat. Would still be losing considering the current gap, but it's probably a bit closer.
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