Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1277

(+) Yeah! (+)

Predict who wins between Fallout: New Vegas and Star Fox 64.
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charmander6000 posted...

Does the former have any chance in those matches?

Persona 4 > Persona 5

Not convinced Odyssey beats Galaxy either.
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AxemRedRanger posted...

So I was bored and got to wondering, given our abysmal votals, just how low the number of voters in individual countries could be getting at this point.

So I took our lowest votal poll in a ridiculously long time (https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6950-best-of-2017-mobile) and worked backward from the percentages to figure out how many people in various countries voted there. With votals still declining I figure that's the future!

Results (out of a total of 5264 votes)
U.S.: 3215 (61.08% of total votes)
Canada: 556 (10.56%)
U.K.: 286 (5.43%)

So I checked your entire list for any mistakes and you did make a mistake for Canada and the UK. Canada actually has 553 votes and the UK has 288 votes. You did a good job handling the massive vote totals of the US, as I came to the same conclusion the US had 3215 votes. There were no other mistakes I could find besides Canada and the UK.

Other countries that had more than 10 votes in the Mobile GotY poll:

Singapore: 19
Greece: 18
Puerto Rico: 12

You somehow missed those 3 countries in checking which ones had more than 10 votes. Well, Singapore isn't directly visible on the poll map, so I would have to obtain the percentages for Singapore by viewing the source code of this page - https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/map?id=6950

I was a bit surprised to see Puerto Rico with more than 10 votes, given that Hurricane Maria killed the vote totals from that country a few months ago. On September 19th, we got 40 votes from Puerto Rico in the 2017 age poll. The next day on September 20th when Hurricane Maria made landfall, there were less than 3 votes from Puerto Rico. Most of the polls over the next several days had absolutely no votes from Puerto Rico.
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I got lazy on Canada and the U.K., yeah. Guess they had too many votes for the quick-check I was doing on the other countries to work properly. Was careful about the U.S. because I knew it wouldn't fly there.

Puerto Rico isn't its own country so I was not incorrect in not including it.

Did miss Greece, though. I remember specifically trying to find Singapore but yeah, wasn't on the map.
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AxemRedRanger posted...

Puerto Rico isn't its own country so I was not incorrect in not including it.

Puerto Rico is unique in that it has its own country code (PR) in the source code of the link I provided in my previous post. I don't have any idea whether Puerto Rico actually counts towards the US's vote totals or not (it's not displayed on the US regional map).
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Puerto Rico's too busy not having electricity to vote.
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I'm really surprised at today's results in this poll:

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6956-

The Switch easily beat the PS4 in the System of the Year poll just 2 days ago, but now the Switch is losing to the PS4 in today's poll.
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Because 2018 isn't going to contain a new Zelda and Mario
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Thanks to yesterday's Nintendo Direct Mini, we know more about the Switch's upcoming games than the PS4's upcoming games. Based on what we know so far, the Switch has a larger confirmed line-up of games for this year than what we know about the PS4's line-up. You would think the Switch would be winning this poll based on what we know right now.
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Even so, there are no new big titles. Odyssey and BotW hard carried the first poll for sure.
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The_Ctes posted...

Even so, there are no new big titles. Odyssey and BotW hard carried the first poll for sure.

Sure, but you can say the same thing about the PS4 not having any confirmed big titles for this year. So both systems are operating on even ground in terms of knowing the confirmed big titles at this point, except for the fact the Switch has more confirmed titles than the PS4 overall.

It's actually a miracle the Switch is keeping this as close as it has given the ownership disadvantage. The Switch has 45.04% ownership and the PS4 is at 67.49%. I guess the PS4's much higher ownership is making the difference between losing or winning this poll.
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I mean we already had Metroid / Pokemon / SMT5 / Fire Emblem announced pre-direct
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Yes, we know about those titles, but no one is really expecting any of them to come out in 2018 apart from maybe SMT5 or Fire Emblem and they aren't on the same level as Metroid or Pokemon.
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Bump
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LusterSoldier posted...

The_Ctes posted...

Even so, there are no new big titles. Odyssey and BotW hard carried the first poll for sure.

Sure, but you can say the same thing about the PS4 not having any confirmed big titles for this year. So both systems are operating on even ground in terms of knowing the confirmed big titles at this point, except for the fact the Switch has more confirmed titles than the PS4 overall.

It's actually a miracle the Switch is keeping this as close as it has given the ownership disadvantage. The Switch has 45.04% ownership and the PS4 is at 67.49%. I guess the PS4's much higher ownership is making the difference between losing or winning this poll.

I just think PS4 is the more pooular console, so Switch needs titles to win it.
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Predict who wins between Fallout: New Vegas and Star Fox 64.

Even though Fallout 3, 4 and New Vegas are pretty strong titles, Star Fox 64 is the Star Fox game. In any case, NostalgiaFAQs would determine whether or not New Vegas breaks 40%.
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I noticed the homepage has a section under "Today's Featured Content" that says this:

Today's Featured Game
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Voted Best Game of 2017 by GameFAQs users

Allen didn't have a note like that last year when FFXV won, so this is the first year he's done this. Maybe this is a step closer to getting the GotY polls turned into a mini-contest.
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I don't see the connection. He could've done it as a mini-contest this year if that had anything to do with it.
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Advokaiser posted...

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Predict who wins between Fallout: New Vegas and Star Fox 64.

Even though Fallout 3, 4 and New Vegas are pretty strong titles, Star Fox 64 is the Star Fox game. In any case, NostalgiaFAQs would determine whether or not New Vegas breaks 40%.

New Vegas did break 40% on Resident Evil 4...although given how poorly RE4 did against Mario RPG and how New Vegas may have benefitted from Witcher rallies, it may not be that strong.
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Star Fox 64 would be the strongest Star Fox game by a ridiculous amount but a lot of that would speak more to the weakness of Star Fox in general than anything else. The franchise has been tragically mismanaged for over two decades now. And for all that Star Fox 64 provides great nostalgia and memorable voice acting, it frankly needs those to even be considered in a match like this, because most of gamefaqs would never give a second glance at a rail shooter without the Star Fox brand.

And New Vegas isn't weak. We don't have any good data on Star Fox 64 but it's almost certainly weaker than fellow N64 game Goldeneye and that game probably doesn't beat New Vegas by a ton. 2015 X-stats say 53.75%. Goldeneye/Star Fox 64 probably do get stronger relative to New Vegas as our votals decline, though.

Nintendofaqs could definitely pull out a win (I'd probably pick Star Fox 64) but I'd expect it wouldn't be by much.
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So, taking RE4/New Vegas at face value, that would place Star Fox 64 at around MGS2's level.

Oh yeah I just remembered Fox lost in Round 1 of our last character battle, and his previous match involved Snake doubling him.
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LusterSoldier posted...

I noticed the homepage has a section under "Today's Featured Content" that says this:

Today's Featured Game
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Voted Best Game of 2017 by GameFAQs users

Allen didn't have a note like that last year when FFXV won, so this is the first year he's done this. Maybe this is a step closer to getting the GotY polls turned into a mini-contest.

You're trying really hard to get a new contest, aren't you?
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http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Final_Fantasy_VII_vs_Mario_Kart_64_vs_Star_Fox_64_vs_Suikoden_2009

Star Fox 64 got beat soundly by Mario Kart 64. There's no way it'd beat a Fallout game.
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Mario Kart 64 is probably pretty strong, and there's some SFF involved anyway.
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AxemRedRanger posted...

Fox 64 would be the strongest Star Fox game by a ridiculous amount but a lot of that would speak more to the weakness of Star Fox in general than anything else.

I feel like the original might not be that much weaker. Those of us old enough to remember the SNES days well can attest that it was a very big game for its day, and it would get some credit just for being a stand-in for the Star Fox name (for whatever worth that has); there have been a few other cases of people underestimating the first game of a franchise from the SNES in similar situations (DKC1 and Super Mario Kart).

Anything else in the series, though, lol.
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I mean I don't think people expected SMK to be weak

They just didn't think it was nearly as strong as Super Metroid
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Super Mario Kart isn't all that strong. Remember that Super Metroid shocked people when it whooped Mario Galaxy and nearly beat Majora's Mask (and might have if MM didn't have brackets on its side). It definitely grew in strength in between the contests, and considering SMK didn't even make the most recent games contest while Mario Kart 8 did, I would still take it to lose to Super Metroid with ease.
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It probably loses to Super Metroid now, yeah, but I don't think that means it's not strong. Not making a contest doesn't mean you're not strong either. We've seen that many times.
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Big Bob posted...

Super Mario Kart isn't all that strong. Remember that Super Metroid shocked people when it whooped Mario Galaxy and nearly beat Majora's Mask (and might have if MM didn't have brackets on its side). It definitely grew in strength in between the contests, and considering SMK didn't even make the most recent games contest while Mario Kart 8 did, I would still take it to lose to Super Metroid with ease.

I don't actually remember a single person shocked or surprised by Super Metroid's performance last contest, tbh. If anything, it performed as strongly as expected.
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A lot of us were amazed at how it manhandled Mario Galaxy and gave the GOTD the fight of its life - in past games contests Metroid games would typically fall at first sight of other Nintendo games.
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Super Mario Galaxy was the heavy favourite against Super Metroid in the gurus

http://thengamer.com/guru/BGE3/stats.php?match=87

Though after Super Metroid's destruction of Call of Duty 4 it quickly became the favourite though most people weren't expecting a 60/40 victory

http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=87

By the time it got to Majora's Mask it was expected that Super Metroid would have a decent performance, but lose without giving Majora's Mask too much issue (Twilight Princess did perform better against SMG than Super Metroid afterall).

http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=108
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I think it was Super Metroid not being able to shine in past contests (specifically BGE 2009) and polls where it's been always overshadowed by stronger games.

BGE 2015 demonstrated from the beginning that games from the SNES/Genesis era were much stronger than newer games. By the time freaking Earthbound got past Round 1 pretty easily against Borderlands, and Sonic 2 beating Portal 2 and Uncharted 2 easily as well, there was barely any doubt Super Metroid would beat Super Mario Galaxy. Getting past Majora's Mask was definitely an uncertain possibility, but it wasn't that big of an upset at that point in the contest.
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I disagree, Super Metroid's performance would have only gotten 46.68% against Twilight Princess. Like I guess you could have argued that Twilight Princess SFF Super Mario Galaxy by more than Super Metroid, but the board was expecting a 55/45 match rather than a 50/50.
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Bump
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Super Metroid beating Galaxy was expected by the time the match rolled around. It was an overwhelming favorite in the Oracle.

literally only 3 people picked Super Metroid to beat Majora
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LeonhartFour posted...

Super Metroid beating Galaxy was expected by the time the match rolled around. It was an overwhelming favorite in the Oracle.

literally only 3 people picked Super Metroid to beat Majora

Yeah... Maybe it was a bigger upset than I remembered, but my point is pretty much the first sentence you said.
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Hey, @LusterSoldier, today's votals have increased. Where those trends at?
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Advokaiser posted...

Hey, @LusterSoldier, today's votals have increased. Where those trends at?

Yesterday's poll only barely got above 14000 votes, which is slightly higher than what our regular polls have been averaging lately. It's nothing to get excited about.
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Bump
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Bump.
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What is the weakest game with Link in it? Doesn't necessarily have to be a Zelda game!
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Scribblenauts, maybe?
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I didn't know Link was in that, huh...

Scribblenauts VS a CD-i LoZ game

...not sure really. Scribblenauts might actually lose that due to jokes.
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https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3308-character-battle-bonus-link-link-link-link

Scribblenauts absolutely would lose that.
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would Ryo Hazuki be able to beat Funky Kong
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Shenmue 3 hype might be enough
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Red Dead Redemption vs. Demon's Souls who wins?
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I think RDR's 40% on SotC is more impressive than Souls' mere 36% Half Life 2.

https://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/6-gamefaqs-announcements/76238326

Secondly, we will also be committing to running contests more often and with larger prizes. You can look forward to the next GameFAQs sitewide contest this summer. More information about this contest will be coming out in the upcoming months.

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Hype!
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