Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1291

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WarThaNemesis2
10/27/18 8:03:11 PM
#101:


davidponte posted...
This better be just an excellent board vote for Waluigi


The board vote massively favored Aerith, she was over 70% at one point.
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The_Ctes
10/27/18 8:03:24 PM
#102:


If Waluigi can't get ahead now he's not winning without good rallies.
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Ytterbicide
10/27/18 8:03:30 PM
#103:


https://imgur.com/ZoBo1Mb

boy's closer than I thought he'd be
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FlyingForever
10/27/18 8:04:03 PM
#104:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
Aerith winning the first hour.

If FF anti-vote is a thing Waluigi is trash


There will always be ff anti vote
And its damn well deserved
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LusterSoldier
10/27/18 8:04:14 PM
#105:


D.Va winning round 1 on natural strength alone (if this result holds) would be a good thing as it avoids a rally from starting up in round 1 and tainting the other 3 matches running at the same time. While also forcing D.Va to try and establish some kind of rally momentum in round 2 against a much stronger opponent.
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LordoftheMorons
10/27/18 8:04:25 PM
#106:


Poor Shovel Knight :(
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FlyingForever
10/27/18 8:04:50 PM
#107:


LusterSoldier posted...
D.Va winning round 1 on natural strength alone (if this result holds) would be a good thing as it avoids a rally from starting up in round 1 and tainting the other 3 matches running at the same time. While also forcing D.Va to try and establish some kind of rally momentum in round 2 against a much stronger opponent.


Thanks for the... absolutely useless insight luster
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Evillordexdeath
10/27/18 8:04:54 PM
#108:


Yeah, I would expect Waluigi to do much better with the board vote than the rest of the match.
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Ranticoot
10/27/18 8:06:00 PM
#109:


i don't think i've ever been more disappointed in this site than i have watching a fucking toad with a hat win
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davidponte
10/27/18 8:06:04 PM
#110:


Luster said exactly what I was going to say there, yeah. D.Va winning on natural strength here might be a good thing.
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FSABot
10/27/18 8:06:06 PM
#111:


I'm kinda liking Jills chances here. She stalled Fox for only 9 vote gain in the last 3 minutes.
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Qwaar
10/27/18 8:06:09 PM
#112:


Looks like my bracket needs a serious Waluigi rally.
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TsunamiXXVIII
10/27/18 8:06:41 PM
#113:


The_Ctes posted...
If Waluigi can't get ahead now he's not winning without good rallies.


Well that was always the expectation. I don't think any of us thought Waluigi had enough legit strength to beat Aerith, but a combination of him having some natural strength just for being a Mario character and Square supposedly being weaker (which doesn't quite look true?) meant it wouldn't take much for Waluigi to pull the upset.

And that was always going to be a 3-point match, so if Waluigi beat Aerith, he'd make it to Round 3, which is usually the make-or-break round for rally targets (due to the bizarre format of CBIX, Draven's R2 is the proper comparison.)

L-Block got a lucky draw that allowed him to reach R3, and then the novelty allowed him to start causing havoc. Undertale managed to luck out, too, avoiding any Squintendo until Round 3. (Actually, forget just Squintendo; Undertale didn't even have to face anything Japanese until round 3. Not to take anything away from Fallout 3 since it did make the GotD semis, but I do feel that if Undertale had run into any of its later opponents in R2, it would've been in trouble). Missingno may have knocked off a Noble Niner in R1, but Crono has always been Sephiroth's inferior. I feel like if Missingno had gotten past Seph, nothing would've stopped it. And so on. If you look at it harder, the "Round 3 factor" is even true when we didn't know that it was going to be an issue. For example, take a look back at the Guru stats and see where the eventual champion first became an underdog. Round 3. From a certain point of view, it wouldn't be an underdog again until the semis. See, in later rounds, you have to look at more than just raw percentage because a lot of those that don't have a given entrant had them losing earlier than that. Majora's Mask had a very high retention rate in Round 4, and it was above 50% in Round 5 as well. (Retention rate being picks to win over picks to win the previous round, rather than out of total brackets. I'll again go back to 2015 when the Gurus were divided enough on RBYG vs. SM64 in the Quarterfinals that Final Fantasy VII was considered the cookie cutter pick for that semifinal even though "not RBYG or SM64" had only one bracket more than "RBYG or SM64" (and yes, some of those other options were from that QF rather than FFVII's) and there were literally more brackets picking FFVII as the loser of that match than as the winner (it was something like 35% winner, 42% loser, 13% eliminated in a previous round)).
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Whiskey_Nick
10/27/18 8:07:52 PM
#114:


Allen ruined it all
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The Owner of FF9
10/27/18 8:10:48 PM
#115:


So Garrus vs. Ramza was one for the records, right?
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LusterSoldier
10/27/18 8:11:19 PM
#116:


Big jumps for D.Va, Shovel Knight, and Aerith on that update.
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LordoftheMorons
10/27/18 8:11:34 PM
#117:


Woah Shovel Knight cut
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TheCodeisBosco
10/27/18 8:14:46 PM
#118:


Poor Waluigi. He got the match pic advantage of a lifetime and still can't compete.
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Now crack that combination:
27 99 23.
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The_Ctes
10/27/18 8:15:48 PM
#119:


Stop it Shovel Knight
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v_charon
10/27/18 8:16:01 PM
#120:


Wow, Shovel Knight is going to win.
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TheCodeisBosco
10/27/18 8:16:04 PM
#121:


Captain Toad is screwed lol
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Now crack that combination:
27 99 23.
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Averia
10/27/18 8:16:36 PM
#122:


Toad is dying
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FSABot
10/27/18 8:17:30 PM
#123:


After seeing D.va and Fox, who is the favorite there next round?
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KamikazePotato
10/27/18 8:17:44 PM
#124:


Shovel Knight is digging Toad's grave
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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The_Ctes
10/27/18 8:19:13 PM
#125:


FSABot posted...
After seeing D.va and Fox, who is the favorite there next round?


If no rally comes, Fox wins no question
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Evillordexdeath
10/27/18 8:19:42 PM
#126:


FSABot posted...
After seeing D.va and Fox, who is the favorite there next round?


Fox unless Dva gets a rally, as always.

Aloy is probably bottom 10 in terms of strength.
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Averia
10/27/18 8:20:52 PM
#127:


At this rate, Shovel will have buried Toad next update
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BetrayedTangy
10/27/18 8:21:09 PM
#128:


Let's go Shovel Knight! You can overcome the dreaded Mushroom Knight!
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DoctorJimmy133
10/27/18 8:21:47 PM
#129:


Of course hes called Toad without the Captain in front of it smh

Not sure if this favors him or not though
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KanzarisKelshen
10/27/18 8:22:48 PM
#130:


aww yeah shovel knight

come on boy, make it happen! Strike the earth!
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LordoftheMorons
10/27/18 8:24:29 PM
#131:


Also Shovel Knight and Captain Toad are both really fun (and pretty short) games that everyone should play if they haven't already
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SwiftyDC
10/27/18 8:25:21 PM
#132:


Knight > Captain
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KamikazePotato
10/27/18 8:25:34 PM
#133:


DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Of course hes called Toad without the Captain in front of it smh

Not sure if this favors him or not though

'Toad' helps. I would not have picked Shovel Knight if I had known it would just be 'Toad' on the front page.
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The_Ctes
10/27/18 8:32:56 PM
#134:


KamikazePotato posted...
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Of course hes called Toad without the Captain in front of it smh

Not sure if this favors him or not though

'Toad' helps. I would not have picked Shovel Knight if I had known it would just be 'Toad' on the front page.


There's no way it makes a difference
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Haste_2
10/27/18 8:33:27 PM
#135:


Well I don't feel so bad for picking Shovel Knight even if he does lose.

I'm betting Aeris finishes above 60% assuming no rally.
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TsunamiXXVIII
10/27/18 8:33:51 PM
#136:


The Owner of FF9 posted...
So Garrus vs. Ramza was one for the records, right?


It's up there. The record books apparently weren't updated in 2015 though.

Also, damnit Shovel Knight! I just can't win with you. I figured that Shovel Knight could pull some upsets last contest because it would be against anti-vote magnets (and its second opponent wouldn't even have the benefit of bracket votes to curtail its anti-votes because said opponent's first opponent is the biggest piece of casualbait ever), and I got totally burned.
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DoctorJimmy133
10/27/18 8:34:14 PM
#137:


KamikazePotato posted...
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Of course hes called Toad without the Captain in front of it smh

Not sure if this favors him or not though

'Toad' helps. I would not have picked Shovel Knight if I had known it would just be 'Toad' on the front page.

Same.

I do think the Captain Toad pic is a bit suboptimal for an entrant called Toad but that probably doesnt counteract the name factor.
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Evillordexdeath
10/27/18 8:34:24 PM
#138:


Aeris will probably start to gain percentage similar to Squall. If she doesn't, her chances against Fox look to be slim.
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KamikazePotato
10/27/18 8:34:31 PM
#139:


Of course it makes a difference. One is a very specific Toad in a specific game that most people haven't played. The other is the general Toad that has been in a million spinoffs and that people have played as a lot. Goombario from Paper Mario would be much weaker than Goomba.
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#140
Post #140 was unavailable or deleted.
Haste_2
10/27/18 8:35:55 PM
#141:


Wait is "captain Toad" listed "Toad" on the poll pic?
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Evillordexdeath
10/27/18 8:36:30 PM
#142:


Toad was at something like 57% before Shovel Knight cut most of that away in two updates. Their match has stalled since, but if he had kept up that pace he would've won easily. He'd already have the lead.
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The_Ctes
10/27/18 8:36:32 PM
#143:


Captain Toad barely looks any different. Toad is among the most recognizable characters ever and it's just a title. Goombario is different in that regard (also looks more differently because he's made of paper)
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#144
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armitage999
10/27/18 8:38:12 PM
#145:


D.Va's performance so far seems to be disappointing. D.Va's not going to lose, but Aloy seems like she's making a match out of this one so far.
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KamikazePotato
10/27/18 8:39:26 PM
#146:


Titles matter quite a bit. They're part of a character's identity.

It's not going to be a HUGE difference because it's still Captain Toad in the pic, but if the match ends up super close like it's looking it may, I'm calling foul play. Let's see what was in your bracket, Allen!!!
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#147
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CaptainOfCrush
10/27/18 8:41:38 PM
#148:


UltimaterializerX posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Titles matter quite a bit. They're part of a character's identity.

It's not going to be a HUGE difference because it's still Captain Toad in the pic, but if the match ends up super close like it's looking it may, I'm calling foul play. Let's see what was in your bracket, Allen!!!

Would Toad be stronger than Captain Toad?

It's uncertain, but I do agree with the notion of calling out this mistake if the result winds up close.
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#149
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MikeTavish
10/27/18 8:48:39 PM
#150:


I would have picked Captain Toad for certain if I had known he'd be listed as "Toad" in the match pic.
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