Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1302

(+) Yeah! (+)

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Mega Man - got Smash since the last contest.

He was already announced for Smash 4 in 2013.
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Eh, Mario's been in almost all the Smash trailers, but the most notable thing he's done in any of them is get impaled by Ridley.

It wasn't even particularly memorable like Luigi's cameo in the Belmont trailer was.
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Mario's always going to get tons of games that have his name in them - that isn't really what I'm talking about. As I said earlier, he's still the biggest face for Nintendo, but he used to be pretty much the ONLY face. That is not the case anymore. Nintendo uses many of their other characters to generate online hype, especially for Smash.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

heroicmario posted...

Outside of Link, are we really confident in where *anyone* ranks?

I'm not, not really.

Sonic - still lower tier. That's my most confident prediction.

Crono - would be pegged for lower echelon, but CT looked so beastly in 2015 that most people are waiting to see what its protagonist will do.

Mega Man - got Smash since the last contest. Anyone who's confident to peg him now is braver than me.

Cloud & Seph - obviously were beasts in days gone by, but now it's uncertain where they rank and how far they've fallen.

Samus - Ms. Consistency has gone over a decade without a well received console game. It HAS to take a toll on even her eventually.

Mario - looked like garbage in 2013 and has been used less as the franchise guy for Nintendo. Wouldn't be surprised if he's dropped.

Snake - looked VERY strong in 2013, even before getting Draven counter-rallied. However, MGS5 was poorly received here, and other MGS characters don't look too hot. I think he's immune but am not sure.

Honestly, the one guy who has most likely grown in strength is Link... and now I understand why people are upset.

I just don't know how much I trust Snake

1. His entire series is looking awful this contest, even with MGSV. Out of everyone in the N9, his series looks the worst; even FFVII is looking better. Snake better hope Smash Ultimate hype will counteract his series falling apart.

2. After Mewtwo is exposed as a fraud, I'm having a hard time taking anything Snake did in 2013 without a grain of salt (not really sure how to delineate when his Draven rallying started, but the entire contest went wild after Draven beat X in the second round). He & Liquid looked awful in rivalry rumble in 2011.

3. I feel Snake gains strength from being the anti-Link rallying point, but him and Link not being in the main bracket means I haven't seen much talk about Snake. It certainly doesn't help him if his first match is a now debated match against Zelda.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Eh, Mario's been in almost all the Smash trailers, but the most notable thing he's done in any of them is get impaled by Ridley.

It wasn't even particularly memorable like Luigi's cameo in the Belmont trailer was.

This alone was pretty damn memorable.
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I would imagine Mario Odyssey to be a much bigger deal for him than Smash Bros. The quality, reach, and reception that game has received has been the biggest since Galaxy back on the Wii. It feels like Mario sort of missed people on the Wii U (even if NSMBU and 3D World were great), and the Switch with Odyssey has brought the mainline games to a more respectable prominence than before. Sort of the difference between GameCube Mario and Wii Mario. I think that's more likely to rekindle some goodwill, rather than whatever he does in a trailer. Also, l feel like we're overstating Smash Bros. trailer hype a little bit. I don't think a character can count on a rise or fall entirely on the basis of whether or not they did a cool thing in a trailer for a couple of seconds. It's why I don't think Kirby disproportionately has benefited from the Smash hype.

Yeah, Kirby was already a monster without it.
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Yeah, Mario and Luigi's real claim to fame in any of these trailers is getting roasted, haha. I'm not going to lie, I don't think Mario walking with a scowl is something super memorable. It totally missed me until you GIF'd it!

LeonhartFour posted...

Yeah, Kirby was already a monster without it.

I can buy this, along with whatever collective Smash Bros. Boost is in play. But Kirby poofing away on his little star cannot possibly turn him into Mr. Noble Nine can it is this where we are at

characters like mario and link aren't gonna boost because of smash because they're characters in active series already popular with the base. the diminishing returns there are pretty tiny.

when those active series produce widely praised, must-have games though, that's what gives a boost. or should, anyway.
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I've never taken any of those characters to beat Mario either, but I wouldn't make a chest-thumping post like that about it.
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Kirby > Mario this year

book it
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LeonhartFour posted...

Kirby > Mario this year

book it

have we not suffered enough

it's our one last hope
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INTERWEBUSER posted...

@_Dog_ posted...

@INTERWEBUSER posted...

pjbasis posted...

GotD 2 is gonna be great because even the Nintendo/Square entries are bound to be pathetically weak too.

I don't think they're going to be favored over the western stuff TOO much.

Youre wrong. This is DroneFAQs and theyd rather LABO win than any deserving game like GTA5 or RDR2. Also, Bored Of The Walking is still popular.

</salt>

Did your old dogpoop account get banned or something?

</red herring>
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heroicmario posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

This might be the strongest Zelda we'll ever see. She really doesn't need to drum up this power against Aeris next round, but man, what a sight to behold.

I think this is the most surprising result so far for me. When I voted I did not expect to see Zelda putting a trouncing on Squall so bad it makes her look like the elite of the elite. It's crazy, but pretty awesome to see at the same time.

You also have Fox McCloud out here making Aeris sweat, so maybe Final Fantasy has just kind of run dry or something.

It's a miracle that Aeris is even winning considering the trends we've had.
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65% update for Geralt there. The night vote is here... he's cut 70 the last half hour too.
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FSABot posted...

65% update for Geralt there. The night vote is here... he's cut 70 the last half hour too.

Geralt's gonna be 3-0 against Smash characters if he keeps this up.
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Today is the most shocking day of the contest so far. Zelda's a monster here, and yet Aerith is somehow winning too? I picked Aerith > Fox but lost all hope before today. Does Captain Toad and Waluigi really scare Jill Valentine like that?

Glad to see the upper half of Division 6 is finishing competitively the way it deserves. I can't remember the last most competitive three rounds of a contest were to compare to this.

CasanovaZelos 11/13/2018 7:37:23 PM#479 posted...

I wonder if people actually include Sheik and Tetra when they think of Zelda as a character. We always gets pictures of Princess Zelda, and I feel like that makes us forget her more complex portrayals.

Agreed -- Sheik >> Zelda, but I don't vote for Zelda like she's Sheik.
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heroicmario posted...

I would imagine Mario Odyssey to be a much bigger deal for him than Smash Bros. The quality, reach, and reception that game has received has been the biggest since Galaxy back on the Wii. It feels like Mario sort of missed people on the Wii U (even if NSMBU and 3D World were great), and the Switch with Odyssey has brought the mainline games to a more respectable prominence than before. Sort of the difference between GameCube Mario and Wii Mario. I think that's more likely to rekindle some goodwill, rather than whatever he does in a trailer. Also, l feel like we're overstating Smash Bros. trailer hype a little bit. I don't think a character can count on a rise or fall entirely on the basis of whether or not they did a cool thing in a trailer for a couple of seconds. It's why I don't think Kirby disproportionately has benefited from the Smash hype.

This

I've brought this up before, but it took a year for BotW's best received trailer to hit 10m views on youtube

Mario Odyssey did it in two weeks

It's hard to overstate just how well received Odyssey was. It's the best selling Switch game (IIRC), a strong goty candidate, and just in general is considered to have taken the mario formula to a new level. It's no guarantee that the big drop from 2013 will be reversed, but if anything can do it, that game can.
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

It's hard to overstate just how well received Odyssey was. It's the best selling Switch game (IIRC), a strong goty candidate, and just in general is considered to have taken the mario formula to a new level. It's no guarantee that the big drop from 2013 will be reversed, but if anything can do it, that game can.

A "strong goty candidate" that won no major goty awards
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Galaxy got SFFd big time by Breath of the Wild in GOTY awards.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Galaxy got SFFd big time by Breath of the Wild in GOTY awards.

Plus big open world games that last forever simply resonate alot more with the modern Game Media. Witcher 3 took the majority of awards in 2015, no real big open world games in 2016 and Red Dead will take them all this year. Zelda was alot more what the media looked for in a Goty.
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Bayonetta by the hour:
20:00 | 51.68%
21:00 | 49.06%
22:00 | 52.49%
23:00 | 48.64%
00:00 | 50.82%
01:00 | 51.70%
02:00 | 50.47%
03:00 | 47.49%
04:00 | 45.19%

Geralt's really flying now.

Bayonetta currently leads by 104 votes.
Based on the last 5 hours, Geralt wins by 7 votes.
Based on the last 2 hours, Geralt wins by 975 votes.
Based on the last hour, Geralt wins by 1125 votes.
Based on the last 30 minutes, Geralt wins by 1830 votes.

Geralt is like the anti-CBX

A modern western character with strong, exciting trends who can win matches

Too bad hell not escape the division alive.
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INTERWEBUSER posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

It's hard to overstate just how well received Odyssey was. It's the best selling Switch game (IIRC), a strong goty candidate, and just in general is considered to have taken the mario formula to a new level. It's no guarantee that the big drop from 2013 will be reversed, but if anything can do it, that game can.

A "strong goty candidate" that won no major goty awards

Yes it did? Who is the arbitrator of what counts as major?
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squexa posted...

His entire series is looking awful this contest, even with MGSV

The correct phrase here is "because of," not "even with."
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snake_5036 posted...

squexa posted...

His entire series is looking awful this contest, even with MGSV

The correct phrase here is "because of," not "even with."

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snake_5036 posted...

squexa posted...

His entire series is looking awful this contest, even with MGSV

The correct phrase here is "because of," not "even with."

Never played MGSV. I thought the critical reception was pretty good? Or is this another one of those Skyward Sword situations.
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Metal Gear Solid 5 is great. Its just a pretty big departure from what the longtime fans enjoyed (with it being a big open world game instead of a linear one) so it alienated some of those fans.
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People started out liking it until they realized it was unfinished and the first 3 hours after you escape the hospital is what you're gonna be doing for the rest of the game with very little variation.

There's hardly any story in the game, minimal cutscenes, the main missions (aside from skulls and sahelanthropus missions) are exactly the same as the side missions except Kaz yells about Cypher at the end during main missions, people were pissed about misleading advertisements before release (don't remember specifics but the MGSV board went on about it forever), there's absolutely nothing memorable from the game at all (there's nothing in the game like the MGS3 codecs, or MGS2's dumb ending, etc), microtransactions, general disdain toward Konami, nothing in the game is on the scale of the Ground Zeroes base (Ground Zeroes is a perfect showcase of what Phantom Pain's outposts, bases, and creative challenges could have been), people thought the big twist was pretty stupid (i know MGS has a lot of stupid things, but in general most people didn't like it or see it as necessary whatsoever), likely lots of other things I'm forgetting.
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Bayonetta by the hour:
20:00 | 51.68%
21:00 | 49.06%
22:00 | 52.49%
23:00 | 48.64%
00:00 | 50.82%
01:00 | 51.70%
02:00 | 50.47%
03:00 | 47.49%
04:00 | 45.19%
05:00 | 48.59%

Bayonetta recovered a bit the past hour, but Geralt still won it.

Bayonetta currently leads by 81 votes.
Based on the last 2 hours, Geralt wins by 605 votes.
Based on the last hour, Geralt wins by 241 votes.
Based on the last 30 minutes, Geralt wins by 31 votes.

06:00 | 51.17%

Bayonetta currently leads by 100 votes.
Based on the last 3 hours, Geralt wins by 242 votes.
Based on the last 2 hours, Bayonetta wins by 74 votes.
Based on the last hour, Bayonetta wins by 247 votes.
Based on the last 30 minutes, Bayonetta wins by 260 votes.

Best match of the contest so far. Gonna come down to whoever has the better day vote I guess.
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HaRRicH posted...

I picked Aerith > Fox but lost all hope before today. Does Captain Toad and Waluigi really scare Jill Valentine like that?

I said from the start that there's no way Aerith loses to Jill, which gave Fox a very small margin of error regardless of what she did.
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07:00 | 46.19%

Geralt won that hour quite comfortably and has nearly taken the lead.

Bayonetta currently leads by 37 votes.
Based on the last 3 hours, Geralt wins by 231 votes.
Based on the last 2 hours, Geralt wins by 227 votes.
Based on the last hour, Geralt wins by 719 votes.
Based on the last 30 minutes, Geralt wins by 995 votes.

squexa posted...

snake_5036 posted...

squexa posted...

His entire series is looking awful this contest, even with MGSV

The correct phrase here is "because of," not "even with."

Never played MGSV. I thought the critical reception was pretty good? Or is this another one of those Skyward Sword situations.

Its gameplay is pretty good, but its story is trash and unfinished. I'm serious, there is no ending, things just stop happening. From what I hear the collector's edition has some sorta thing showing you what would have happened in the final mission if they didn't decide to cut it from the game. Oh and also Big Bauer talks about as much as Quiet.
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Just woke up to a 3-vote match. Nice.
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FSABot posted...

Metal Gear Solid 5 is great. Its just a pretty big departure from what the longtime fans enjoyed (with it being a big open world game instead of a linear one) so it alienated some of those fans.

Ah, that reminds me of the recent discussion about Dark Dawn. Biggest problem with that game was that it had multiple points of no return, while the first two games kept the entire map open and even had some cases where something would open up later to make backtracking easier.
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And Geralt finally takes the lead, with a big update. Up 17 now.
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Geralt takes the lead.

LeonhartFour posted...

HaRRicH posted...

I picked Aerith > Fox but lost all hope before today. Does Captain Toad and Waluigi really scare Jill Valentine like that?

I said from the start that there's no way Aerith loses to Jill, which gave Fox a very small margin of error regardless of what she did.

Also considering how easily Donkey Kong manhandled Leon Kennedy, it makes sense Waluigi and Captain Toad would scare Jill like that.

Congratulations Squall for proving my suspicions right that you and your game dropped a lot. Looks like needing Undertale rallies just to barely break 60% on a GTA game was an omen. Speaking of which, so it seems Aerith is projected to get around the same % on Shovel Knight that San Andreas got on the game. Maybe Shovel Knight is actually kind of okay-strength wise for a newer indie title on this site? I was just asking because direct extrapolation from 2015 results has San Andreas doing slightly better against Mario RPG than direct extrapolation from GOTD has doing against FFX, which seems plausible.

All I'm saying is that Shovel Knight is a pretty big deal (I couldn't go without hearing about it when it came out), and that perhaps this site's bias against newer games and indie games is the only reason why the character loses to Captain Toad and the game can't break 40% on GTA.
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Evillordexdeath posted...

Geralt takes the lead.

This would be excellent, I wound up picking Geralt to win this half division largely because picking Ryu Hayabusa or Riku to win it didn't feel right. My hunch actually paid off for once!

Would make up for Squall's screwjob.
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Just in time for the morning, though it looks like US is almost 50/50 while Canada is slightly going for Geralt. The next couple of hours will decide who wins.
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I wonder how many times Geralt has to rise during the day while losing the US vote til people stop looking at that as a metric to predict his daytime performance. Geralt, like any other Western AAA character, starts off badly so he has no where to go but up the rest of the match. He's much more likely to hit 51% then lose at this point.
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Updated state records through round 2:

94-2: Arizona
93-3: Florida
92-4: Illinois
91-5: Georgia, Texas
90-6: California, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New York, Virginia
89-7: Alabama, Louisiana, Michigan, Oklahoma, West Virginia
88-8: Indiana, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina
87-9: Arkansas, Missouri, New Jersey, North Carolina, Washington, Wisconsin
86-10: Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, South Dakota
85-11: Iowa, Minnesota
84-12: Alaska, Montana, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah
83-13: Nebraska, Nevada, Wyoming
82-14: Kansas, New Hampshire
81-15: Kentucky
80-16: Maine
79-17: Rhode Island
78-18: Hawaii
76-20: Delaware, New Mexico, Vermont
70-26: North Dakota

This is the number of times they've voted for the winner. As you can see it seems to be mostly based on population, which is a little boring. Still, it's fun to look at. Arizona has taken the lead (only missed Shovel Knight and King Dedede).
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Bayonetta has slowed down the bleeding a little, but she needs to start making (even small) gains fast before this gets out of hand for her.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

heroicmario posted...

Outside of Link, are we really confident in where *anyone* ranks?

I'm not, not really.

Sonic - still lower tier. That's my most confident prediction.

Crono - would be pegged for lower echelon, but CT looked so beastly in 2015 that most people are waiting to see what its protagonist will do.

Mega Man - got Smash since the last contest. Anyone who's confident to peg him now is braver than me.

Cloud & Seph - obviously were beasts in days gone by, but now it's uncertain where they rank and how far they've fallen.

Samus - Ms. Consistency has gone over a decade without a well received console game. It HAS to take a toll on even her eventually.

Mario - looked like garbage in 2013 and has been used less as the franchise guy for Nintendo. Wouldn't be surprised if he's dropped.

Snake - looked VERY strong in 2013, even before getting Draven counter-rallied. However, MGS5 was poorly received here, and other MGS characters don't look too hot. I think he's immune but am not sure.

Honestly, the one guy who has most likely grown in strength is Link... and now I understand why people are upset.

Don't forget that Cloud also has had Smash since the last contest. Unfortunately that doesn't really help him as 7 people in the NN are in that game, but w/e
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