Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 249: Phase 1 of a scheduled topic series

(+) Yeah! (+)

I don't follow the transition into JOBS JOBS JOBS there.
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Rich people hoarding wealth = jobs. Did Reagan teach you nothing?
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Netanyahu indicted on corruption, bribery, and fraud.


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FFDragon posted...

I don't follow the transition into JOBS JOBS JOBS there.

If you chant his name three times, Steve Jobs' ghost shows up and - if you're worthy - makes you wealthy.

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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1197560914607775745?s=19

the most aggravating thing about Buttigieg is that he still polls like trash outside of a few states but our primary system is stupid as hell so it doesn't matter

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And yang put up two 4% results today. Hopefully one of those counted for his final qualifier.
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

And yang put up two 4% results today. Hopefully one of those counted for his final qualifier.

That South Carolina Quinnipiac one should, I believe.

should count for steyer too unfortunately
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https://mobile.twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/1197581349441474560
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lmao

Late to listening in to this hearing but Hill being the top trend there is well deserved. She's been great from the portions I've heard.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Netanyahu indicted on corruption, bribery, and fraud.

Thank fucking god. Based on my anecdotal evidence of Israeli Facebook friends who still support him I'm not optimistic, but it'd be great if Israel could be less militantly right-wing.
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GOP: "What did you hear the President say about A$AP Rocky?"
Holmes: "I did not hear the President's side of the conversation about A$AP Rocky."

now we're getting to the real stuff
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xp1337 posted...

GOP: "What did you hear the President say about A$AP Rocky?"
Holmes: "I did not hear the President's side of the conversation about A$AP Rocky."

now we're getting to the real stuff

"He told the President 'You can tell the Kardashians that you tried.'"

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It's such BS that they can do this - Turner went on a 5 minute rant where he spent about 3.5 of it smearing and condescending to Hill and then when he switched to spend the remainder of his time to do the same to Holmes he was asked (I think by Schiff) if he was aking Hill a question and he made the most arrogant expression like it wasn't even worth his time before continuing his tirade.

Absolutely disgusting both how he was treating Hill there and how he could use his entire time to berate them without them having the opportunity to respond. His tantrum was laden with hypocrisy and self-contradictions too.

i am livid right now
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Grimlyn posted...

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/1197581349441474560

LMFAO
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xp1337 posted...

GOP: "What did you hear the President say about A$AP Rocky?"
Holmes: "I did not hear the President's side of the conversation about A$AP Rocky."

now we're getting to the real stuff

How can we even trust this secondhand information? I DEMAND that Donald Trump takes the stand to testify about the details of his conversation about A$AP Rocky. The American people have a right to know.

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Based Schiff.

After the next Republican tried to do much the same, Schiff interjected at the end of his time and asked Hill if she wanted to respond. Seemed like the GOP guy tried to object but Hill was allowed to speak. It also sounded like from what she said that Turner had already left the room which is just pathetic if he did that and just bailed right after.
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...they have nothing

Another GOP member asking no questions and just monologuing. At least this time it was "just" going "save us mitch. please call hunter in the senate"
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oh, our local networks are no longer pre-empting coverage for the impeachment hearings.
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xp1337 posted...

Based Schiff.

After the next Republican tried to do much the same, Schiff interjected at the end of his time and asked Hill if she wanted to respond. Seemed like the GOP guy tried to object but Hill was allowed to speak. It also sounded like from what she said that Turner had already left the room which is just pathetic if he did that and just bailed right after.

https://twitter.com/radleybalko/status/1197600245900812291

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Labour manifesto for the UK election for the interested:

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf

Key points:

-Four day (32 hour) working week.

-Green industrial revolution, 1 million new green jobs, net zero by 2030.

-Sensible deal vs. Remain referendum, brexit sorted in six months.

-Renationalising rail, water, energy and post.

-Free fibre broadband for all.

-Scrap tuition fees.

-Free childcare up to four years old, 12 months parental leave.

-Reversing cuts to public services, police numbers, etc.

And many more! If they pull this off that is amazing and transformative.
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Hrrrnnng that all sounds so good

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Still waiting for a British party with the balls to say that Brexit is stupid as fuck and they're just not going to do it

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Hrrrnnng that all sounds so good

Yeah I don't see a single thing on that list that I don't agree with at a glance. The closest would actually be the broadband for all, and that's more due to the UK's previous (hilariously incompetent) attempts at internet censorship than the policy itself.

https://twitter.com/nickconfessore/status/1197599033503756288
lmao

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

gonna beat the shit out of domestic violence

In Biden's defense, if Domestic Violence would have just listened the first time we wouldn't have to keep punching it.
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In some disturbing news, 538's impeachment tracker now has impeachment just barely above water despite literally every single fact being damning for Trump. I'm guessing it's more of GOP partisans who were initially shaken finding their way back home as the Fox spin machine goes to work than the hearings actually convincing anyone that Trump is innocent, but it's still unsettling.

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I forgot to mention that this has no tax rises for 95% of people yet is fully costed! It's a banger of a manifesto with loads of good small policies too.

LordoftheMorons posted...

Still waiting for a British party with the balls to say that Brexit is stupid as fuck and they're just not going to do it

This has already happened - the centre-piece of the Liberal Democrat manifesto is to immediately revoke article 50 if they get a majority. I don't agree with it as it is kind of invalidating half the country while the Tories invalidate the other half. Labour's plan might actually heal the divisions brexit has caused by giving people a final say.

Reg posted...

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Hrrrnnng that all sounds so good

Yeah I don't see a single thing on that list that I don't agree with at a glance. The closest would actually be the broadband for all, and that's more due to the UK's previous (hilariously incompetent) attempts at internet censorship than the policy itself.

Different party, plus private providers would still exist.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

In some disturbing news, 538's impeachment tracker now has impeachment just barely above water despite literally every single fact being damning for Trump. I'm guessing it's more of GOP partisans who were initially shaken finding their way back home as the Fox spin machine goes to work than the hearings actually convincing anyone that Trump is innocent, but it's still unsettling.

I was looking at this earlier today. If you look at the part where it breaks it down by party, it seems like the drop is actually primarily among Democrats and Independents, whereas the Republican response has been sitting at an extremely low but mostly stable amount.

(Compared to say, 10 days ago, Democrat and Independent support on the tracker has dropped ~3% and ~5% respectively, while Republican support is effectively the same.)
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lmao maloney opening his time by apologizing to hill for having to endure "mansplaining" from Turner

democrats should have yielded time to him
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Also, this is a blast from the past, but I mentioned this story when the charges were first brought. Yesterday, after the initial trial resulted in a mistrial, a second jury found him not guilty in two hours: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/11/21/arizona-activist-scott-warren-acquitted-charges-helping-migrants-cross-border/

A man who volunteered for a humanitarian group that would run search-and-rescue missions when missing persons were reported and provide emergency aid was being prosecuted for felony counts of harboring and conspiring to transport undocumented immigrants when he brought two men to a camp the organization used and gave them food and clean clothes.

All this following Sessions having ordered federal prosecutors to step up enforcement of the harboring statue.
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pyresword posted...

I was looking at this earlier today. If you look at the part where it breaks it down by party, it seems like the drop is actually primarily among Democrats and Independents, whereas the Republican response has been sitting at an extremely low but mostly stable amount.

(Compared to say, 10 days ago, Democrat and Independent support on the tracker has dropped ~3% and ~5% respectively, while Republican support is effectively the same.)

Hrmm, wonder what could be causing that... could still be mean reversion, but I guess I shouldnt totally discount the possibility that some people are being convinced by the absolutely garbage case the GOP is making.

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Nunes is a piece of shit and I'm embarrassed that he represents half of fresno. I can't stand listening to him talk.
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Lightning Strikes posted...

Different party

This is my surprised face.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Nunes is a piece of shit and I'm embarrassed that he represents half of fresno. I can't stand listening to him talk.

Oof

At least you can help vote him out!

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If you're snoozing out to Nunes's closing statement watch him get fucked by Swalwell instead

https://twitter.com/AZimmerman720/status/1197612095245819905
https://twitter.com/applejuicegang7/status/1197612522884534272
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Re: Impeachment polling and 538's tracker.

I would wait and see where it goes and not overreact/panic about small ebbs and flows. I do think there is a very real risk that the attention span of the public works against it and people just start tuning out again which is what I'd first look to in terms of explaining any small drop. I also think it's possible you might see it spike up a bit in newer rounds of polls taken after the Sondland testimony and the news generated from it.
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Its kind of pathetic that public polling should even matter
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Jakyl25 posted...

Its kind of pathetic that public polling should even matter

Unfortunately it does unless you think the Senate GOP are going to spontaneously regenerate their spines!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Nunes is a piece of shit and I'm embarrassed that he represents half of fresno. I can't stand listening to him talk.

Oof

At least you can help vote him out!

Nope! I live in the Costa half. So I don't even get to vote against Nunes.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Its kind of pathetic that public polling should even matter

Unfortunately it does unless you think the Senate GOP are going to spontaneously regenerate their spines!

the number can't go high enough to get the senate gop to remove

lol is that what we were talking about? The number could legit be like 65% and I'd still have strong doubts.
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"We are better than that!"

man i hope you're right schiff but i truly fear we aren't
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So here's a pessimistic take on things:

What do any of these proceedings actually change? As fun as it is watching corruption be called out, Trump isn't being impeached either way and no one in the Fox News camp is going to believe anything that comes out of it.

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KamikazePotato posted...

So here's a pessimistic take on things:

What do any of these proceedings actually change? As fun as it is watching corruption be called out, Trump isn't being impeached either way and no one in the Fox News camp is going to believe anything that comes out of it.

If a bit above 50% of the country remain convinced that he should be removed (enough to overcome his EC advantage) it becomes very hard for him to get re-elected. The Dems only need to convince another 5% or so of the country.

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I think the GOP could theoretically be convinced to vote for removal, but only if the polls had Democrats winning by enough to put safe red states in danger of flipping on top of winning every state that's close to competitive now. If the choices are Trump vs. losing by 300+ votes in the Electoral College and a filibuster-proof Dem majority in the Senate, they'd pretty much have to go with removal.

Nothing Trump is accused of now will get us there, of course. But hey, if Trump starts a war and we get a 2008-level economic collapse on top of everything else then maybe enough people would turn on him in theory.
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nothing will change and trump will never face any consequences for any of his actions in his entire crime filled life

FWIW I do think the chance of removal is significantly above zero. Maybe like 5%? I would have said 20% right after the Ukraine news initially broke, but the fact that the House GOP has been totally United publicly has made me revise down (extremely disappointed in people like Will Hurd). I still bet we get at least one R vote for removal though (Romney).

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KamikazePotato posted...

So here's a pessimistic take on things:

What do any of these proceedings actually change? As fun as it is watching corruption be called out, Trump isn't being impeached either way and no one in the Fox News camp is going to believe anything that comes out of it.

It's still a necessary step.

It is imperative to preempt the cries of "If what trump did was so wrong why didn't you impeach him?".

They need to be able to point back to these hearings and say "we did everything we were required to do by the constitution to remove trump from office. We held hearings and we discussed events at great length and we reached sound conclusions." And then they can point to the specific senators who vote to acquit as to the reason why Trump was not removed.

It might not move the needle on removal for office, but it can sure as heck move the needle on specific Senate races next November.
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KamikazePotato posted...

What do any of these proceedings actually change? As fun as it is watching corruption be called out, Trump isn't being impeached either way and no one in the Fox News camp is going to believe anything that comes out of it.

Point of correction: He will almost certainly be impeached. He will just as almost certainly not be removed.

I think "what does this change?" depends on what road you want to take here.

I don't think that pessimistic take is necessarily invalid. I think it's correct that he won't be removed and his cult of personality, which has consumed nearly all of the Republican party, will just dismiss it all. That's true.

However, I think there's a "history will judge us"/moral argument that it's the right thing to do and thus important to do. To do nothing is itself an action and a chilling one. That it will almost certainly not result in removal is itself a damning statement but I don't think there is no value in being able to say and show that "We did everything we could here. There was a failing here but it was not for lack of effort."

And then if you just want the completely cold, clinical political take: The worse things get for Trump through these hearings may not change the outcome but it may well increase the price Republicans have to pay to get there. Take Collins and the Maine Senate seat, for example. Her situation has worsened considerably over the past few years, particularly after Kavanaugh. She used to be popular and safe in a seat that would otherwise go blue. By impeaching and sending it to the Senate, she is put in a no-win scenario. She either votes to remove and pisses of her base and risking them not turning out for her or even primarying her, or she votes to acquit in which case she further energizes the opposition to her and without checking state level polling, I think it's safe to say Maine supports impeachment and removal.

She's just one example. More Republicans will be put in tough positions, both in the Senate (which is crucial for 2020) and beyond it.
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Xeybozn posted...

But hey, if Trump starts a war and we get a 2008-level economic collapse on top of everything else then maybe enough people would turn on him in theory

He already precipitated a cleansing of the Kurds and scant few people cared about that. I don't see a frivolous war affecting him negatively.
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KamikazePotato posted...

So here's a pessimistic take on things:

What do any of these proceedings actually change? As fun as it is watching corruption be called out, Trump isn't being impeached either way and no one in the Fox News camp is going to believe anything that comes out of it.

In terms of practical outcome it's mostly about energizing voters and showing that Democrats are willing to stand up to Trump's corruption, hopefully in a way that wins over moderates. The Articles should make a more full case against him. Also gets senators on the record of supporting Trump or not to hopefully impact the competitive races.

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