Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 249: Phase 1 of a scheduled topic series

(+) Yeah! (+)

xp1337 posted...

And then if you just want the completely cold, clinical political take: The worse things get for Trump through these hearings may not change the outcome but it may well increase the price Republicans have to pay to get there.

This is fair, but I question how much any of this matters a year from now is the thing. Trump had 3298470913 scandals in the 2016 election and people literally just forgot about them. Nothing I've seen so far makes me think that people will even remember these proceedings come 2020.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

FWIW I do think the chance of removal is significantly above zero. Maybe like 5%? I would have said 20% right after the Ukraine news initially broke, but the fact that the House GOP has been totally United publicly has made me revise down (extremely disappointed in people like Will Hurd). I still bet we get at least one R vote for removal though (Romney).

lmao you are way too optimistic

tbqh removal could only require 51 votes not 67 and i'd say those percentages are still way too high
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Another benefit: it somewhat decreases the chances that Trump will continue to exert undue influence on the 2020 election (well, he probably still will, but the extent might be reduced).

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history doesn't judge anything. we make the exact same mistakes over and over because humanity is sick. the only reason to do these hearings is distraction and political theatre and the only good thing about them is that is pisses off trump for a bit. zero people who vote for republicans at any time care a single bit about violating rules, doing crimes, etc. they just want power, and to punish the people they are disgusted by.

LordoftheMorons posted...

I would have said 20% right after the Ukraine news initially broke, but the fact that the House GOP has been totally United publicly has made me revise down (extremely disappointed in people like Will Hurd).

I see where your love of Biden comes from
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KamikazePotato posted...

This is fair, but I question how much any of this matters a year from now is the thing. Trump had 3298470913 scandals in the 2016 election and people literally just forgot about them. Nothing I've seen so far makes me think that people will even remember these proceedings come 2020.

He's literally being impeached, which is different

Furthermore the "oh yet another government scandal" apathy is a huge part of the problem

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I mean Hurd is retiring and he can't even break rank! Amash is the only one who did and he's no longer a Republican!

I do think you might get Romney but part of me thinks if we do it'll be more fueled by him taking joy in being able to get some petty and useless revenge than because he's doing it out of integrity!

Actually, thinking on it more, I think it's more likely he'll vote present or some nonsense.
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Romney won't vote to remove but mysterious new senator Pierre Delecto just might

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I agree that Will Hurds cowardice has been extremely disappointing. I think youre discounting the possibility that Mitch decides that its in the Senate GOPs best interest to push Trump off a cliff, though.

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https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1197600780473315328?s=21

Person on the right is the WH correspondent for OANN

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https://twitter.com/OrganizingPower/status/1197570217095958530

Thread about Bolivia reporting in the New Yorker.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

I think youre discounting the possibility that Mitch decides that its in the Senate GOPs best interest to push Trump off a cliff, though.

I think you're underestimating how badly the GOP has to be losing before getting rid of him is their best option. Unless they're on track to get completely demolished, it's better for them to just lose in 2020 and regroup for the next few elections where they can blame the Dems for ruining everything.
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https://twitter.com/kevinmkruse/status/1197624736186060802?s=21

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

He's literally being impeached, which is different

Is it, though? The spin is super easy: poor Trump is being demonized by those libs who want to discredit his good name. I'll be blunt: most of the people who are swayed by actual evidence instead of emotions are the ones who are supporting his impeachment before these proceedings started. I don't know how much this actually moves the needle.

Furthermore the "oh yet another government scandal" apathy is a huge part of the problem

I 100% agree but it's the reality we live in.

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I'm not discounting it so much as I think you and I have wildly different beliefs in where that line is.

Removing Trump would be politically devastating for Republicans. To understand McConnell's position on this I think you have to look solely at one audience - Republican primary voters. That's who the GOP is beholden to. So you're not even looking at just the GOP, you're looking at a subsection that's even further to the right than the whole. Trump has completely captured that segment (and the larger whole, but especially the primary base.)

So you need a situation where either: Republican primary voters turn on Trump or the situation is so bad that the cost of depressing turnout massively among the base is a better option than sticking by Trump.

In a world with Fox News and the right-wing media/social media bubble I just don't know how you get a situation where the primary base turns on him. You have a whole bubble you can stay in that will deny reality and straight-up lie (Fox was running that Sondland said no quid pro quo yesterday when he literally testified there was.) to people.

To go back to the impeachment poll tracker. I legitimately feel like you'd need to see impeach+remove over 70% to get this conversation going. And I just don't know how in the world you get there. The floor on these things is basically 30% as-is. (There's an anecdote involving the Obama/Keyes election that pegs the number at 27% IIRC as a "crazyification" factor because it basically eliminates any other possible factors)
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KamikazePotato posted...

I'll be blunt: most of the people who are swayed by actual evidence instead of emotions are the ones who are supporting his impeachment before these proceedings started. I don't know how much this actually moves the needle.

There is something to be said for having something that is so big news-wise that it pierces through the media bubble. There's that infamous example of the Amash town hall where a constituent who was a Trump supporter attended because she was pissed at Amash's decisions and was genuinely shocked to hear the Mueller report actually had any negative findings for Trump.

Now whether you can have big enough news events to penetrate through the right-wing bubble that people who otherwise live in actually see it is questionable and I am personally pessimistic on that front (and companies like Facebook are actively harming any efforts by literally giving the green light to lying in political ads) but if you could accomplish it you could see hearings like these move things a bit if clips like Sondland's "Was there a quid pro quo? the answer is yes." make it through.
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https://twitter.com/preetbharara/status/1197613062871797762?s=21
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Don't worry too much about impeachment polls. Those who are actually following them (aka those more politically active) are significantly more for it than those who haven't kept up with it.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/21/us/trump-seals-eddie-gallagher.html

Someone in here guessed this one too
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Corrik, actually
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Yeah I was too lazy to go back and check, but I knew it was said.

+1 to Corrik
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FFDragon posted...

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/21/us/trump-seals-eddie-gallagher.html

Someone in here guessed this one too

Cant see passed the paywall, whatre the details here?

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

FFDragon posted...

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/21/us/trump-seals-eddie-gallagher.html

Someone in here guessed this one too

Cant see passed the paywall, whatre the details here?

Navy started moving forward with it and Trump said 'No' and stopped it.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

FFDragon posted...

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/21/us/trump-seals-eddie-gallagher.html

Someone in here guessed this one too

Cant see passed the paywall, whatre the details here?

Basically:
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1197507542726909952
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gallagher is gonna enjoy the arctic
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I'm in the business of committing war crimes

and let me tell ya

business is BOOMING
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FFDragon posted...

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/21/us/trump-seals-eddie-gallagher.html

Someone in here guessed this one too

Fuck both of them

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http://emersonpolling.com/2019/11/21/november-national-poll-support-for-impeachment-declines-biden-and-sanders-lead-democratic-primary/

Its just one poll, but it shows that Bernie is the only one beating Trump nationally, although with margin of error they are all pretty much the same.

primary shows Bernie and Biden tied at 27, Warren at 20, Butt at 7

some other good shit:

Biden supporters are found to have the most respect for police of the top three Democratic candidates, as 65% said a great deal, 26% said some and 10% said hardly any. Among Warren supporters, 36% said a great deal, 44% said some, and 20% said hardly any. And within Sanders supporters, 22% said a great deal, 44% said some and 34% said hardly any.

Sanders holds a lead among Hispanic or Latino voters with 36% support, followed by Biden with 23% and Warren with 22%. Sanders leads by a smaller margin with White voters with 29% support followed by Biden and Warren with 21%, and Buttigieg with 9%. Biden continues to lead with African American voters with 42% support, followed by Warren with 18%, Sanders with 17% and Buttigieg with 7%.

Looking at ideology, Sanders leads with very liberal voters with 45% support, followed by Warren with 23%, Biden with 16% and Buttigieg and Yang with 4%. Among somewhat liberal voters Warren and Sanders lead with 26%, followed by Biden with 23% and Yang with 8%. Among moderate/conservative voters, Biden leads with 39% support, followed by Sanders with 14% and Warren and Buttigieg with 12%.

When asked if they would definitely vote for their candidate or if they could change their mind, Sanders supporters are the most committed to their preferred candidate as 71% of his supporters said they will definitely vote for him. 60% of Biden supporters, 46% of Warren supporters and 31% of Buttigieg supporters said the same.

Looking at ideology, Sanders leads with very liberal voters with 45% support, followed by Warren with 23%, Biden with 16% and Buttigieg and Yang with 4%.

Hey 16% off very liberal voters, I don't think "very liberal" means what you think it means.
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or they are the only voters who do know what very liberal means

http://stonetoss.com/comic/help-wanted/

it TPUSA
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https://twitter.com/woke8yearold/status/1197568568189169665

brb revising my position on immigration
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xp1337 posted...

Point of correction: He will almost certainly be impeached. He will just as almost certainly not be removed.

I think "what does this change?" depends on what road you want to take here.

I don't think that pessimistic take is necessarily invalid. I think it's correct that he won't be removed and his cult of personality, which has consumed nearly all of the Republican party, will just dismiss it all. That's true.

However, I think there's a "history will judge us"/moral argument that it's the right thing to do and thus important to do. To do nothing is itself an action and a chilling one. That it will almost certainly not result in removal is itself a damning statement but I don't think there is no value in being able to say and show that "We did everything we could here. There was a failing here but it was not for lack of effort."

And then if you just want the completely cold, clinical political take: The worse things get for Trump through these hearings may not change the outcome but it may well increase the price Republicans have to pay to get there. Take Collins and the Maine Senate seat, for example. Her situation has worsened considerably over the past few years, particularly after Kavanaugh. She used to be popular and safe in a seat that would otherwise go blue. By impeaching and sending it to the Senate, she is put in a no-win scenario. She either votes to remove and pisses of her base and risking them not turning out for her or even primarying her, or she votes to acquit in which case she further energizes the opposition to her and without checking state level polling, I think it's safe to say Maine supports impeachment and removal.

She's just one example. More Republicans will be put in tough positions, both in the Senate (which is crucial for 2020) and beyond it.

it's 2/3rds. She can just abstain.

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Nrrr posted...

When asked if they would definitely vote for their candidate or if they could change their mind, Sanders supporters are the most committed to their preferred candidate as 71% of his supporters said they will definitely vote for him. 60% of Biden supporters, 46% of Warren supporters and 31% of Buttigieg supporters said the same.

Sanders supporters are also the only group with huge numbers in excitement to vote for their candidate.

I wish more Democrats would realize they (usually) only win when their voters are excited to vote.

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I know it's not fair to compare eras, but Biden would probably have the furthest left agenda of any president within the past 50 years if he really pushes for a public option. I guess there's no satisfying anyone!
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Net favorability is still lol levels for all major candidates so none of these arguments are likely to make a huge difference.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

I know it's not fair to compare eras, but Biden would probably have the furthest left agenda of any president within the past 50 years if he really pushes for a public option.

>Conservatives accidentally saying the truth

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

I know it's not fair to compare eras, but Biden would probably have the furthest left agenda of any president within the past 50 years if he really pushes for a public option.

>Conservatives accidentally saying the truth

Huh?
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I just endured 8 years of Obama being a "Leftist Socialist Muslim" and it's just funny to see you say merely a public option is the furthest left agenda of our era.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

I just endured 8 years of Obama being a "Leftist Socialist Muslim" and it's just funny to see you say merely a public option is the furthest left agenda of our era.

It would be objectively further left than Obamacare so I'm not sure what you're getting at or what I "accidentally" admitted
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Actually upon thinking about it, every D area R senator can vote to indict and Trump will still be fine. The R area Ds will have to for the most part vote no also.

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Corrik7 posted...

Actually upon thinking about it, every D area R senator can vote to indict and Trump will still be fine. The R area Ds will have to for the most part vote no also.

No Democrat besides maybe Manchin will vote to acquit.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

No Democrat besides maybe Manchin will vote to acquit.

Sinema and Manchin I would say are very possible. Tester might if he knows that it's impossible to go through and his voter base demands it, but I am not sure he really cares.

Have to remember that it doesn't really matter too much if they can't get it through. Then they mostly just have to deal with re-elections.

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Corrik7 posted...

LordoftheMorons posted...

No Democrat besides maybe Manchin will vote to acquit.

Sinema and Manchin I would say are very possible. Tester might if he knows that it's impossible to go through and his voter base demands it, but I am not sure he really cares.

Have to remember that it doesn't really matter too much if they can't get it through. Then they mostly just have to deal with re-elections.

Tester is likely safe to vote yes. He was Trumps number one target in 2018 and Tester still won easy. Tester is surprisingly liberal but still super popular and has been pretty vocally anti Trump.

I do agree that I could see Sinema voting to acquit though.
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Reagan sucked, but this is a very good quote:

https://twitter.com/asharangappa_/status/1197716090027151360?s=21

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And good thing too or else all us white people would be out on our asses
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Also I think hes exaggerating how xenophobic other countries are
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Not Japan.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Also I think hes exaggerating how xenophobic other countries are

Are you kidding
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

I just endured 8 years of Obama being a "Leftist Socialist Muslim" and it's just funny to see you say merely a public option is the furthest left agenda of our era.

I mean, Bill Clinton in his first term ran partially on single payer healthcare, and did try to pass it.

Just his popularity dropped a lot when he and Hillary tried it, and so he moved way to the right to win re-election.
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