Poll of the Day > An expert in one of my claims is estimate rent in SF to be $8,907.42 per month

(+) Yeah! (+)

In 2043

Insane

And we'll still be having a $7.25 minimum wage

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In 2043 oh okay lol

Maybe. There are already places that reach that or higher. There's definitely a ton of 2 bedrooms in the $5-8k range.

The min wage here already I think is $15 but that's like not useful here.

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I dunno Fox News told me SF will be 100% poop and syringes by that point

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Wild can't imagine ever paying that much for an apt

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350-500 here in southern illinois. We got corn and corn and more corn!

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Lets compare the federal minimum wage against the highest COL city in the country that has high COL because people refuse to develop the area more specifically because the people in control want high property rates.

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It won't be your expert is on crack heh.

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wolfy42 posted...

It won't be your expert is on crack heh.

There's a conflicting expert saying they estimate $6,750 for the average so it's not farfetched either way.

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Christ, I can't imagine paying 4 times my mortgage for an apartment in a city. So glad to have a nice newish house in a suburb. Would be nice if it wasn't a suburb of Lansing though...

Jen0125 posted...

There's a conflicting expert saying they estimate $6,750 for the average so it's not farfetched either way.

That one seems very doable.

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hockey7318 posted...

Christ, I can't imagine paying 4 times my mortgage for an apartment in a city. So glad to have a nice newish house in a suburb. Would be nice if it was a suburb of Lansing though...

Yeah I live in a Phoenix metro area city and my mortgage for a 3bd,2ba is only $1,700

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Exactly! Mine's a 2,700 sq ft 4 bedroom 2.5 bath for only $2,100 ish with insurance and taxes thrown in. Can't imagine what I'd have to do to afford to live in a city like San Francisco.

I can't wait til my parents die, and all my brothers mysteriously die, and then I'll inherit enough to pay a month of rent

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hockey7318 posted...

Can't imagine what I'd have to do to afford to live in a city like San Francisco.

Tech

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Judgmenl posted...

Lets compare the federal minimum wage against the highest COL city in the country

While that is a poor argument for raising the federal minimum wage, it still highlights how utterly absurd it is that the only legal mandate for a minimum wage offers less than a quarter of what's needed to pay rent in the area. The federal minimum wage should not reflect the cost of living in SF, since that's impractical and unnecessary, but some manner of local minimum wage law needs to.

Really, the idea of a single number as a federal minimum wage is silly. Cost of living varies wildly from place to place, such that a single number for the whole country can never hope to cover everyone's local needs without grossly overpaying others. Even setting single numbers of regions isn't a sensible approach, since those numbers will eventually need to be updated to account for inflation and other CoL changes (which means arguing and fighting about it for years, making minimal progress, and ultimately ending up in the same problem we have now where minimum wage doesn't keep up).

Instead, minimum wage laws should provide an algorithm for each individual business to determine the minimum wages they must pay, according to their local cost of living. Working for 160 hours/month at the prescribed minimum wage should provide something like the following:

• 1/3 of the median monthly rent and utilities for a 3-bedroom apartment within a 30-minute walk of the business, or
• 1/3 of the median monthly rent and utilities for a 3-bedroom apartment within a 30-minute drive, plus enough to pay for car ownership and operation (whatever's lower between these first two figures)
• A nutritionally complete diet
• Some reasonable additional allowance for other unavoidable costs of living (clothes, hygiene, household purchases, health care if we presume minimum wage gets fixed before the health system...)
• An extra $50-100 per month for luxury spending

That gives people room to accumulate some savings if they're willing to make some QoL sacrifices (commute further, live with more people, repairing clothes to make them last longer...), but also plenty of room to improve their lives by working toward higher wages (most notably, not needing roommates). It also will potentially act to regulate cost of living in an area, since areas that are too expensive to live in will also be too expensive to run a business in, and businesses leaving the area will make living there less attractive and drive down demand (and therefore costs), plus it makes business operation in small towns easier because the lower cost of living directly translates to lower staffing costs.

It's hardly a perfect solution, and obviously the specifics some random Internet guy came up with aren't going to be a comprehensive solution, but it's the only way to actually achieve the goal of a minimum wage in such a disparate country as the US.

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adjl posted...

Instead, minimum wage laws should provide an algorithm for each individual business to determine the minimum wages they must pay, according to their local cost of living

This is a great idea

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One I hope I have is that this pandemic results in more techies demanding to work from home, allowing them to work from anywhere, so they can go spread across the country in different areas instead of all concentrating in the Bay Area and ruining it for the rest of us. The tech industry has inflated the cost of living so drastically that I don't know any service workers that aren't struggling. I'm pretty sure rent in my hometown, San Jose, is actually even worse than SF too. I've got plenty of techie friends and none of them are individually responsible for what's happened to the Bay, but there's a reason a bands like this are gaining a lot of popularity in the DIY scene:

https://youtu.be/47u8zbpAtIA

If he meant the most expensive, it's already there.

If he meant the mean/average ......maaabye because of the most expensive properties raising the mean.

If he means you won't be able to get a place for less than 8k, he's on crack. Even 6k is a high estimate. I would say even that far in the future, at the current rate of increase (which will probably slow down and may crash eventually), that $3500-$4000 on average for a 1 bedroom in basically 20 years.

If you look at 2 bedroom apartments in the bay area (hayward) CA right now there are hundreds of them available from $1500-$1800 in hayward ca. Thierty years ago a 2 beedroom was about $600.

So in those 30 years it has double to tripped in price.

IF you doube to tripple it your talking $3000-$4500 for a two bedroom apartment by 2043 I would estimate......IF things continue to increase as much as they have.

I highly doubt that will happen though and think they will cap out eventually, probably before they even reach $3000 avg for a 2 bedroom.

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JigsawTDC posted...

One I hope I have is that this pandemic results in more techies demanding to work from home, allowing them to work from anywhere, so they can go spread across the country in different areas instead of all concentrating in the Bay Area and ruining it for the rest of us. The tech industry has inflated the cost of living so drastically that I don't know any service workers that aren't struggling. I'm pretty sure rent in my hometown, San Jose, is actually even worse than SF too. I've got plenty of techie friends and none of them are individually responsible for what's happened to the Bay, but there's a reason a bands like this are gaining a lot of popularity in the DIY scene:

https://youtu.be/47u8zbpAtIA

Problem with this is I'm seeing a lot of arguments saying that even wfh in remote locations, big tech will STILL being paying bay area salaries to keep in demand talent, and this will have an effect on other popular non-bay cities having their housing markets driven up too. This is already happening across the country in tech centered cities and if bay area salary follows there it could get worse. It's doubtful techies are going to all want to spread out to middle of nowhere especially since internet connection isn't very reliable everywhere. It might just make multiple other attractive cities more expensive.

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wolfy42 posted...

If you look at 2 bedroom apartments in the bay area (hayward) CA right now there are hundreds of them available from $1500-$1800 in hayward ca. Thierty years ago a 2 beedroom was about $600

Title specifically said SF not bay area.

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Also, from every study I've read, while increasing the minimum wage sounds like a good idea it's a superficial fix that will only lead to eventual inflation. The real problem in the Bay Area is the housing market, and there needs to be limits and controls placed there. The only places I've ever been able to afford to rent were rent controlled places that others had been in on for years. What's more, a good portion of the real estate in the Bay is bought up by rich Chinese people living overseas who are purposely taking advantage of the broken market. It's a mess.

This is their estimate for the average price, not the top price.

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JigsawTDC posted...

Also, from every study I've read, while increasing the minimum wage sounds like a good idea it's a superficial fix that will only lead to eventual inflation. The real problem in the Bay Area is the housing market, and there needs to be limits and controls placed there. The only places I've ever been able to afford to rent were rent controlled places that others had been in on for years. What's more, a good portion of the real estate in the Bay is bought up by rich Chinese people living overseas who are purposely taking advantage of the broken market. It's a mess.

^ yeah the amount of airbnb's is a really big problem, there's so little supply and then a decent portion of it isn't even going to city residents

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grimhilde00 posted...

Problem with this is I'm seeing a lot of arguments saying that even wfh in remote locations, big tech will STILL being paying bay area salaries to keep in demand talent, and this will have an effect on other popular non-bay cities having their housing markets driven up too. This is already happening across the country in tech centered cities and if bay area salary follows there it could get worse. It's doubtful techies are going to all want to spread out to middle of nowhere especially since internet connection isn't very reliable everywhere. It might just make multiple other attractive cities more expensive.

For what it's worth I don't place much stock in my hopes. Hoping is nice and gives some pleasant things to think about, but my actual expectations are much more grim.

grimhilde00 posted...

yeah the amount of airbnb's is a really big problem, there's so little supply and then a decent portion of it isn't even going to city residents

Lots of cities are setting VRBO ordinances now that only allow sporadic rentals for a set number of consecutive days per month and total threshold per year.

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Jen0125 posted...

This is their estimate for the average price, not the top price.

Yeah there's already top prices in the 5 digits

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Jen0125 posted...

Lots of cities are setting VRBO ordinances now that only allow sporadic rentals for a set number of consecutive days per month and total threshold per year.

I've seen a fair amount of people getting in trouble for not having permission and still renting out here

But I agree these are necessary restrictions and should be enforced. Probably with some exceptions for if it's your primary residence, you can rent out rooms more.

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Airbnb has caused a huge housing crisis because investors are purchasing homes just to put on the part time rental market instead of allowing real people to purchase and live in the properties. It's sad.

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I was on a local fb group and I saw a ton of comments on a post about a new luxury apartment tower they are building. Soo many saying they are natives to this area, born and raised, but they have to keep moving further and further out because they can't even afford rent in the city they grew up in anymore. It was pathetic. People can't even stay in their hometowns anymore.

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I thought u were banned from FB but you accepted my friend request

Jen0125 posted...

I was on a local fb group and I saw a ton of comments on a post about a new luxury apartment tower they are building. Soo many saying they are natives to this area, born and raised, but they have to keep moving further and further out because they can't even afford rent in the city they grew up in anymore. It was pathetic. People can't even stay in their hometowns anymore.

But yeah, there has been huge numbers of people leaving California because they can't afford it. My dad moved to Boston, my mom to Las Vegas, my step-mom and two sisters to Utah, another sister to Nashville, another sister to Arizona (though she plans on being rich and moving back to San Jose), friends to Texas, Oregon, Washington, Louisiana, etc.

I heard San Jose is building some affordable apartments and homeless complexes in downtown, but Google is also doing a lot of development there too, so we'll see how that all turns out.

JigsawTDC posted...

I thought u were banned from FB but you accepted my friend request

You can still view things. I can even mods the groups I'm mod of. I just can't interact with posts or create posts or comments.

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Jen0125 posted...

You can still view things. I can even mods the groups I'm mod of. I just can't interact with posts or create posts or comments.

Ah, good to know. I've only been banned once I just didn't log in for those three or four days.

good to know jen has been ignoring my friend request purely of her own volition

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Blightzkrieg posted...

good to know jen has been ignoring my friend request purely of her own volition

I am an independent woman

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This is actually a lowkey good statistic. It tells me I'll be saving $8k per month, and I won't have to live in San Francisco.

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Its close to that right now.
Edit: Yep, just looked it up and in one place with 28 units, the highest is $7,300.

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Fierce_Deity_08 posted...

Its close to that right now.
Edit: Yep, just looked it up and in one place with 28 units, the highest is $7,300.

I think the expert means average monthly price

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JoanOfArcade posted...

350-500 here in southern illinois. We got corn and corn and more corn!

sometimes beans

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Location is everything.
We sold our house outside DC and bought a house outside Vegas that's almost twice as big for less.

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Blightzkrieg posted...

good to know jen has been ignoring my friend request purely of her own volition

How could you Jen Bligh is a good boy.

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Zareth posted...

Location is everything.
We sold our house outside DC and bought a house outside Vegas that's almost twice as big for less.

but are they actually in separate locations

sounds like a zoning loophole

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No, they're both in the giant Gerrymandered district that loops across the entire country so the libs can get unfair election bonuses.

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Zareth posted...

No, they're both in the giant Gerrymandered district that loops across the entire country so the libs can get unfair election bonuses.

nice

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