Hey everyone, it’s Contest time again! You know what that means!
The Contest Analysis Crew is back once again! Our goal is to go through this entire contest to determine the best rivalry in gaming. We will analyze and predict each match, and of course, you will read the write-ups and laugh at us when we’re wrong. So without further ado, here’s the Introduction!
*And so, the Crew arrived at Rivalry Tower. The journey to the tower had been a rough one, with over 40 obstacles to overcome. Master Moltar, the all-knowing leader, and Leonhart, the experienced statistician, reached the Tower without a scratch.
Applekidjosh and Kleenex, two seasoned analysts, also made it to the Tower. Even though they fought the whole way and ended up hurting each other, they were still in good shape to continue.
Dante, the feisty newcomer, entered next. This first adventure proved to be quite difficult for him, but he powered through and made it with only a few bumps and bruises.
Last and most certainly least, Lopen stumbled into the Tower. The wild and unpredictable veteran expected the unexpected, and thus wasn’t prepared to face...the expected. Still, he had made it this far and was determined to continue.
Unfortunately, during the journey, Guest was called back to its home planet, and on the trip home it suffered a gruesome, painful, and unintentionally hilarious demise.*
Leon: Okay, we made it, so now what?
???: Haw haw haw! Well done so far, Analysis Crew! You managed to make it all the way to my Tower.
Dante: Look, there’s someone sitting on a throne at the far end of this room!
???: You may have made it this far with your bland, yet necessary observations, but this is where it all ends! I am the final boss of this Tower, Ngamer!
Moltar: Um, if you’re the final boss, shouldn’t you be at the top of the tower?
Ngamer: The size of the Tower is only for decoration!
AKJ: Also doesn’t final boss imply...you know, that there were other bosses?
Ngamer: We didn’t have time to show the other bosses!
Lopen: Shouldn’t you at least mention them...just for completion’s sake?
Ngamer: Haw haw, very well. You see, I built Rivalry Tower specifically to take out the current Analysis Crew. I mean, if I’m not good enough for it, then no one is! Then, I had a brilliant idea. Why would I want to be on your drum Crew when I could just be on my own!
Kleenex: Oh that’s where Moltar was going with this whole Introduction to fit the rivalry them-
Ngamer: So I traveled across the land and searched far and wide for a group of individuals to help me take out your Crew. I enlisted such greats as Heroic Mario, Transience, Yoblazer, Red Sox, and even Ed Bellis! We all wanted revenge for you using us and then throwing us out!
Moltar: I see...well, we aren’t going to let you get away with...well you haven’t really done anything bad yet, but we still aren’t going to let you off so easily, right guys?
AKJ: That’s right! Even though we should be concerned that you’re going to end up doing the same thing to us, we’ll blindly stick to you for now!
Kleenex: Oh look at me, I’m AKJ. I want the most lines even though my analysis skills are third-rate.
AKJ: You trying to start something, Tissue?
Lopen: As you can see, why even round up bosses for us when we’re doing a great job fighting amongst ourselves.
Dante: Lopen, be my rival and help me cage AKJ and Kleenex!
Lopen: Okay!
Leon: That’s not how being rivals works!
Ngamer: Enough bickering! Now Moltar, surrender the Crew to me or else!
Moltar: Wait, I have a better idea. How about a wager? If I win, you give up on...building Towers and acting evil for revenge, and if you win...I’ll surrender the Crew to you.
Ngamer: Very well, what kind of challenge will this be?
Moltar: It’s simple, we’re going to do what we do best. Analyze and predict!
Lopen: What will be the match they choose?
Leon: What will be the fate of the Analysis Crew?
Kleenex: What will be the next question?
AKJ: One of the members of the Analysis Crew...IS PREGNANT!
Dante: Find out on the next topic of Rivalry Rumble Contest Analysis Crew!
Moltar: By the way this is the final part hope you enjoyed your Introduction
West Division:Round 2 - Match 46 – (6) Pac-Man/Blinky vs. (2) Solid Snake/Liquid Snake
Moltar’s Analysis
Pac-Man/Blinky Round 1 - 63.51% vs. Crash/Cortex
Pac-Man is still more iconic than Crash
Snake/Liquid Round 1 - 58.77% vs. Crono/Lavos
Snake is still stronger than Crono
See Pac-Man, we’re all on to your tricks now. You may have surprised us years ago by beating Ocelot, but we know how your strength works now. You’ll be able to win against weaker, non-iconic characters, but against any real competition, you’ll get crushed.
Consider Snake/Liquid to be real competition.
Moltar’s Bracket: Snake/Liquid
Moltar’s Prediction: Snake/Liquid - 73%
Lopen’s Analysis
Call me crazy but I think part of Crono doing well last round was due to Solid/Liquid Snake being weak. Crono vs Lavos won its vote in poll, but looking at the others in the poll: Leon vs Ada did terribly, Gordon vs Breen didn't do very well. Solid Snake vs Liquid Snake isn't a 20 year old rivalry and was only in one (or 1.5 at a stretch) game, so maybe the silly GameFAQs doesn't respect it.
That or some weird uh... water cycle/states of matter anti-vote. SCIENCE SUCKS yeah I could see GameFAQs voters saying this.
Lopen's prediction: Solid Snake vs Liquid Snake with 63.29%
Leon’s Analysis
This is probably the match that’s given me the most trouble as far as predicting a percentage is concerned. Pac-Man/Blinky is a weird entity. They got 63.5% on Crash/Cortex last round, but so what? How strong could they possibly be? And how strong are the Snakes? They scored nearly 59% on Crono/Lavos, a decidedly average performance, in my opinion. Not bad, but not anything that’s going to inspire hopes of upsetting Cloud/Sephy next round. They’d need to exceed Cloud/Sephy’s percentage against Kratos/Zeus here against Pac-Man/Blinky by a good bit before I’d even entertain the possibility of an upset again, and I don’t think it’s gonna happen.
Leonhart’s Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Liquid Snake with 68.14%
Some people say horror games are dead. Those people haven't tried to fight the Wall of Flesh in Terraria yet imo
so anyway this is the day Snake comes in to save us from the bad men. Snake and Snake aren't the powerhouse team I had hoped they would be (meaning they don't have a real shot at Cloud) but this is a cakewalk.
AKJ predix Snake and Snake with 70%
Dante’s Analysis
Winner - Solid Snake/Liquid Snake - 72.57%
Guest’s Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII
Well, on the plus side, I finally happened to be paying attention to the board at just the right moment to actually get in for sign-ups. On the minus side, I was still too late to get most of the ones I felt most comfortable with. And even further on the minus side, my goal in the Oracle right now is just to finish in the top 50%—and that’s looking highly unlikely.
So, Solid and Liquid Snake vs. Pac-Man and Blinky, huh? Well, my predictions for both of these teams’ previous matches were way off base. I horribly underestimated both the Pac-Man team and the Chrono Trigger team that the Snakes took down. But honestly…this is the usual “fodder vs. elite” match that we’ve seen so many times already this contest. Solid Snake and Liquid Snake are the stronger characters and they have the better rivalry. Very few characters have broken 80% this contest, and Pac-Man’s a little too iconic to be the kind of ‏über-fodder that would allow it, but far lesser characters than the Snakes have broken 75%, so that sounds like a good range to go to. I’ll estimate on the high end of that, though.
Solid Snake and Liquid Snake with 79.62% of the vote
Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth 43.33% 20976 Alucard vs. Dracula 56.67% 27431 TOTAL VOTES 48407
Chell vs. GLaDOS 48.49% 23729 Frog vs. Magus 51.51% 25211 TOTAL VOTES 48940
Crew Predictions - 44/44
What Happened: No upsets! Cookie wins again!
Why it Happened: PW just isn't strong enough to compete with the vampires. Portal came close to winning, but CT managed to hang on because we love our old RPGs here.
What will Happen: The vampires should probably be considered the favorites (if they already weren't)
Crew Accuracy Challenge - Master gets the point for Alucard/Dracula, Moltar gets the point for Frog/Magus (shoutouts to AKJ predix Chell vs GlaDOS with 51.51% lmao)
*checks last round* Whoa, Pac-Man outscored Snake by 5%? Golly SB, might want to not feed Noble Niners to one another in opening matches! But yeah, you can throw those R1 showings right out the window, given the vastly different opponents. All that matters when predicting the size of this blowout is how the MGS series has looked good this bracket, how this is its signature rivalry, how "real" rivalries have been performing even better than they did last round, and how Pac is sure to disappoint. Not only is he the king of "look good against fodder, crumble against a real fanbase," he's unfortunately also been saddled with the 3D platform look that's never done him any favors.
Plus Snake knows he needs to bring out the big guns if he wants to keep pace with next round's opponent, and considering how Cloud just posted an astounding 77 on Kratos... nah, sorry, no way Snake's able to match that! Should be able to get somewhat close though; maybe just barely enough to keep those upset hopes alive. (But not really.)
Snake - 73.27%
-- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com I'd search B8 for The Show if I were you. *wink wink*
(1) Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy vs. (4) Siegfried/Nightmare
(R1) Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy: 73.65% vs. Laharl/Mid-Boss
(R1) Siegfried/Nightmare: 55.68% vs. Ramza Beoulve/Delita Hyral
Squall/Seifer didn't quite manage the tripling in round one, which I was slightly disappointed by, given that Laharl lost to Kid/Guy in the vote-in, who got 80/20'd by Samus/Ridley. It certainly doesn't matter here though, because Siegfried/Nightmare are just making up numbers. Laharl and Ramza looked to be about equal in that match with Dante and Hogger, so I'd expect them to do a couple of points better than Team FFVIII's first victim. Perhaps they'll even look a little better than that since fighting game rivalries seem to be doing well in this format. Whatever.
Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy with 68.5% of the vote.
--
Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
Northwest Division:Round 2 - Match 47 – (1) Squall/Seifer vs. (4) Siegfried/Nightmare
Moltar’s Analysis
Squall/Seifer Round 1 - 73.65% vs. Laharl/Mid-Boss
lolharl and lol-boss
Siegfried/Nightmare Round 1 - 55.68% vs. Ramza/Delita
lolmza and lolita...wait a minute
Facing Ramza is one thing, facing Squall is another. The Soul Calibur characters barely got through Round 1 against a weak duo, and now they’ve got Squall and Seifer to deal with. Safe to say, they aren’t strong enough to win this.
Considering the FF8 rivalry couldn’t even triple Laharl, Siegfried and Nightmare probably won’t end up looking too bad here.
Moltar’s Bracket: Squall/Seifer
Moltar’s Prediction: Squall/Seifer - 64%
Lopen’s Analysis
For as appealing as Mr. SIEGFRIED SCHTAUFFEN is to the masses, this is an easy match, but it might be interesting to see how well Squall and Seifer do to gauge their chances against THE DANTE SPARDA!? next round. Yeah, that match isn't a lock-- in fact, I'd call Dante (or barring some ridiculousness, Sora) the favorite. And I'll tell you why:
1. Kingdom Hearts Boost? Not here. Seifer might as well be feuding with uhhh... that pudgy kid who hangs around with Roxas.
2. Squall vs Seifer is a one game rivalry, and not old as the sands of time, so it's going to flop.
Huh I just wasted all my ammo for next round on this round. Oh whatever. I guess this round is good to see how much of what I'm saying is hot air. (0%. Too cool for hot air. Word.)
Lopen's prediction: Squall vs Seifer with 61.01%
Leon’s Analysis
This match features a couple of former NRT winners. I’m pretty sure that’s the first time two NRT winners have ever faced each other in a contest match! That’s fun! But unless you’re a Squall (or Seifer) fanboy like me, you’re probably not going to find this match all that fun. Squall/Seifer didn’t wow people against Laharl/Mid-Boss last round, but they did well enough. Siegfried/Nightmare got 55% on Ramza/Delita. Ramza and Laharl were virtual equals the last time we saw them together in 2008. I doubt there’s much of a difference in their strengths now either. Plus, Nightmare being very difficult to see in the match pic probably hurts them a bit, too.
Leonhart’s Prediction: Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy with 70.27%
Hard to care too much about this match when tomorrow's the one everyone wants to see, but Moltar insists we write more about obvious match so HERE WE GO.
Squall and Seifer did seemingly well last round, though it's kinda tough to say where Laharl really stands these days. Disgaea's got a cult fanbase - they still make the games - but to the best of my knowledge, Laharl is only in the first one. Nightmare on the other hand, beat Ramza and Delita in rather unspectacular fashion. This all adds up to what should be a fairly routine win for Squall. The issue is that regardless of how well Squall does today, his path is virtually set in stone. I suppose you could probably make a case for him being upset next round (I wouldn't), but in all likelihood he wins there and loses to the superior FF duo in the quarterfinals. Oh well.
I hope that was enough fluff for everyone.
Kleenex's Prediction: Squall vs. Seifer with 65.24%
Applekidjosh’s Analysis
As exciting (not really) as Nightmare's match was last round, this one is a snoozer. But hell 90% of the matches in this contest seem to be so I can't complain or something? Squall and Seifer and near top tier and they're going to storm this division, so this match is no problem.
reminder that ff8 rox and soul calibur sux
AKJ predix Squall vs Seifer with 60.05%
Dante’s Analysis
Okay, this match isn’t in question at all. Squall and Seifer are going to win, and Siegfried and Nightmare will lose. Now, the fun will be in determining how badly they lose. Team Soul Caliber didn’t even manage 56% on Ramza and Delita, which I would rank roughly nonexistent on the FF power tier. Squall and Seifer managed 73% on Laharl and Midboss, which I consider an underperformance (in before someone pulls out my old writeup where I probably called them getting 60% or something). Before those two matches I’d probably give this to Squall and Seifer with like 78%, but I do think Ramza and Delita are a bit above Laharl. Not much, but a little. And for this reason, I shall say
Winner - Squall/Seifer – 68.84%
Guest’s Analysis - SuorGenoveffa
Well, I really wish there was anything interesting or clever to say about this match, but this was set up to be one of the most boring matches in R2, the calm before the storm that will be Sora vs Riku/Dante vs Vergil.
Siegfried and Nightmare are weak, and scored one of the closest wins in R1 over Ramza/Delita. What needed to be said about Ramza's contest strength has been said over and over.
Squall and Seifer didn't exactly set the world on fire either, but they should be entirely comfortable against the Soul Calibur characters, I'm expecting no less than 68% here, or I might even start to worry about R3.
Winner: Squall vs. Seifer with 70.18%
Crew Consensus: Squall/Seifer is the easy favorite.
From: Master Moltar | #023 Yeah, that match isn't a lock-- in fact, I'd call Dante (or barring some ridiculousness, Sora) the favorite. And I'll tell you why:
1. Kingdom Hearts Boost? Not here. Seifer might as well be feuding with uhhh... that pudgy kid who hangs around with Roxas.
2. Squall vs Seifer is a one game rivalry, and not old as the sands of time, so it's going to flop.
uhhhh
Squall/Seifer is several years older than either Dante's or Sora's rivalries.
And FFVIII is more popular than any of their games.
Stop sabotaging our team will terrible upset picks! Accept the fact that they're not going to happen!
yoblazer and I took some heat for overreacting to Squall's atrocious start last around, and deservedly so (had no idea he was so B8-hated, or capable of Cloudish percentage comebacks, but apparently this has been going on for a while). That being said, 74% on Laharl is still pretty bad; in a world where Kefka can put up 79 on fodder that shares an RPG base and Cloud can somehow hang 77 on Kratos just because they share a Sony base, it's a little telling that Squall couldn't capitalize on someone sharing both bases. (Plus isn't Laharl's rivalry a total joke? Must be since AKJ told me so, and he hasn't been wrong all season!)
Of course with Cloud residing in the division next door, all that really matters is if either of Squall's next two opponents will be able to take advantage of this apparent weak point. After 60% on Hitler and 56% on Ramza, I'd say we can safely respond with a resounding "No". Squall ought to come out of this one looking a little better (he'll have a full 24 hours to recover from the bad start we get him off to), but I can't see him going all "Cloud" on our backsides and improving on his R1 percentage. Fighting game rivalries have held up decently this year and the Soul Calibur duo won't have any fanbase overlap for Squall to exploit. Also doesn't SC4 come out in like a month or something? Yeah, that should be enough to get them to the 30s.
Squall - 68.87%
-- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com I'd search B8 for The Show if I were you. *wink wink*
From: Ngamer64 | #031 That being said, 74% on Laharl is still pretty bad; in a world where Kefka can put up 79 on fodder that shares an RPG base and Cloud can somehow hang 77 on Kratos just because they share a Sony base, it's a little telling that Squall couldn't capitalize on someone sharing both bases.
Terra/Kefka vs. Vyse/Galcian wasn't RPG SFF! Vyse/Galcian are literally that weak!
Seriously, I'd be surprised if Vyse broke 40% on Laharl if you ran that match right now.
Heck, he might not even get 40% on Neku, who barely got 40% on Laharl!
--
"The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
(R1) Sora/Riku: 60.21% vs. William B.J. Blazcowicz/Adolf Hitler
(R1) Dante/Vergil: 82.59% vs. Sol Badguy/Ky Kiske
There's genuine hype surrounding this match, so hopefully it can break the boredom that has enveloped this contest through the first two rounds and produce some excitement. There's perhaps not much to be drawn from their first round matches, so you could argue there's little to go on beyond gut feeling, but I'll try to make a few points anyway.
Sora/Riku were held back by rallying, but they also benefited from a day match, so 60-40 is probably not far from the genuine result. In the vote-in, where there was also rallying, the Bosses got 61% on Hitler, so Sora/Riku's performance looks fine from that perspective. I have a hard time seeing Sol/Ky being any stronger than Dan/Sagat, and even if you set them equal, Dante/Vergil only fractionally outdo the Bosses on Chris/Wesker.
Sora and Dante are close 1v1, the advantage lying with Dante, but Riku is clearly a step above vergil. Their rivalries seem to be close based off the above extrapolation, and I don't think "rivalry factor" will swing heavily in either direction, so the match should be close enough that factors other than base strength could effect it.
Those factors can be argued either way - on one hand you could say KH has been declining for several years, so Sora and Riku are both likely weaker now than in CBVIII, while Dante and Vergil have both been in (U)MvC3, the picture makes Dante/Vergil look like a better rivalry, KH draws anti-votes, or on the other that KH is much stronger than DMC, Dante doesn't have a great history against strong opponents, the sharp pic contrast will help pull in the KH vote, and that if the match is close KH's rabid fanbase will not allow it to lose.
I have Dante/Vergil in my bracket, and I want to go for them in the battle, but the more I think about it, the more I can't see them winning if the match is close, which it probably will be. Whatever happens, I hope it provides some excitement - God knows this contest needs some of it.
Sora vs. Riku with 52.21% of the vote.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth 76.78% 40294 Kratos vs. Zeus 23.22% 12185 TOTAL VOTES 52479
Pac-Man vs. Blinky 32.36% 14420 Solid Snake vs. Liquid Snake 67.64% 30137 TOTAL VOTES 44557
Crew Predictions - 46/46
What Happened: FF7 impresses, MGS doesn't
Why it Happened: Cloud/Seph probably benefited from some form of Playstation SFF, since Nintendo fans wouldn't really vote for Kratos/Zeus. The Snakes didn't look too hot in their match, but maybe it was because Pac-Man's rivalry was too iconic to get crushed here.
What will Happen: The vampires should probably be considered the favorites (if they already weren't)
Vampires eh?Man that would make them really popular on young girls!
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
Northwest Division:Round 2 - Match 48 – (3) Dante/Vergil vs. (2) Sora/Riku
Moltar’s Analysis
Dante/Vergil Round 1 - 82.59% vs. Sol/Ky
poor Guilty Gear
Sora/Riku Round 1 - 60.21% vs. B.J./Adolf
poor...Hitler?
48 matches, 0 upsets, is that going to change today?
Dante/Sora would be a debated match 1v1, so it’s no surprise to see this match get a lot of talk. Sora has looked stronger than Dante for a while, but 2010 was a bad year for KH. Sora lost to Bowser in a night match, and Riku lost to Falcon. Dante didn’t look too good either, losing in a close match with Ryu. Still, it seems that KH characters might have fallen hard enough to make Dante a real threat to win.
I think fans of both series respect these rivalries, so I’m not seeing any real advantage to either side there. Sora/Riku looks to be the stronger pair, as most would agree that Riku is stronger than Vergil. Dante/Vergil looked great in Round 1, but Sol/Ky is bottom of the barrel fodder, so you can’t take too much from it about the strength of the sons of Sparda. Sora/Riku...yeah, they faced a joke entrant and underperformed. Without the rally, they would have done as expected, so I don’t think that’s too big of a black spot for them. Basically R1 didn’t really tell us that much about how this match goes down.
I think Sora/Riku win here for the same reason Cloud/Seph killed Kratos the other day. These are both primarily Sony franchises, and GameFAQs cares far more about KH than DMC (just look at how their games performed in the games contest). I expect this to transfer over to the characters and their rivalries. Plus Sora/Riku also has some extra appeal outside of that with their Nintendo handheld games.
So yeah Dante is gonna choke again.
Moltar’s Bracket: Sora/Riku
Moltar’s Prediction: Sora/Riku - 52%
Lopen’s Analysis
As many of you know, hell, as many of you probably knew before brackets were finalized, I've obviously got THE SONS OF SPARDA!? Here. What many of you might not know is why I've got them, besides the obvious answer of how much cooler they are. I'll go down what each side has in its favor, step by step.
Dante vs Vergil:
- Dante's stronger than Sora. - Dante's (and to a much lesser extent, Vergil) had relevant releases this year-- not so with Sora. More reason to boost. - The rivalry is better. At first I thought this mattered, but now I'm not so sure. However: - Dante vs Vergil is a more “traditional” rivalry in that it's main character vs main villain. This I do think matters because I think the typical voter is as dumb as Bacon when it comes to realizing what a rivalry actually is. - Dante vs Vergil looked better in r1. Yeah, I'll be the first to admit that the GG duo has the potential to be the weakest in the bracket, but 83% can't be denied. Meanwhile 60% on a fodder entrant (in a day match no less) isn't impressive, even if it does have joke appeal-- I think Hitler's joke power is a bit overstated as I'm sure find it offensive or at the very least unfunny.
Sora vs Riku:
- Riku > Vergil - Dante chokes close matches against tough competition. - More games for the rivalry...? This kinda hinges on either people not knowing who Nelo Angelo is (doubtful) or Chain of Memories being relevant (also doubtful)
Throw in that I personally think that Dante's choking has been due to a DMC2 pic most of the time which he doesn't (and can't) have here, and that I think Vergil's contest strength is underrated, and you've got a prime “upset” waiting to happen. Now, granted, some of these factors weren't evident during bracket lockdown, but I personally don't think this match will be all that close now that we've seen round 1.
Also while we're here this is a 6 point match even if by some fluke Sora wins. Why Squall is the commanding bracket favorite I don't understand. Squall no chance.
Lopen's prediction: Dante vs Vergil with 58.55%
Leon’s Analysis
This was one of the most heavily debated matches before the contest, and their first round matches didn’t do too much to clear the air, mostly because they faced opponents who don’t tell us much of anything about their strengths. Yeah, 82% on Sol Badguy/Ky Kiske is nice, but we already knew Dante was good at blowing out turbo fodder. Hitler is a total wild card. I have a hard time imagining him getting a high percentage against anyone, but at the same time, I have a hard time imagining him getting completely destroyed by a lot of people, too. That’s just his nature here. I’ll give Sora/Riku some credit for being able to completely overwhelm any rally attempts before they could even really get going with their strong ASV.
As for the match itself, neither Sora nor Dante have very many high profile contest showings 1-on-1. They’ve struggled against good competition. Some people blame Dante’s struggles on him getting bad pics against good opponents, but he won’t have that excuse if he loses this time, because Dante/Vergil have a very good pic. I think you can cut Sora a little bit of slack for his performance last year because he had all night matches, which is a worst-case scenario for him because KH is one of the most day-centric entities in these contests. The KH games themselves did very well during GOTD, so I’m inclined to give him a little benefit of the doubt.
Lucky for Sora/Riku, they get a full 24-hour match this time around. Dante/Vergil had better jump out to a big lead and put this match away early, because if this is close entering the day time, I have a hard time seeing them hold on to win. I know this is a weekend match, but the day vote still exists. It’s just more diluted across the morning and early afternoon. I’m not entirely sure Dante/Vergil can manage a big lead though, so I’m going to give an edge to Sora/Riku here. It’s a very slight edge though, because they have the potential to screw this one up big time. Anti-voting could be their undoing here. However, KH has a big time series advantage over DMC, so if we see some sort of “rivalry factor” being rooted in the popularity/play rate of the series, that helps out Sora/Riku here, regardless of what DMC fans want to say about Dante/Vergil technically being a better rivalry. Either way, I think “Rivalry Factor” is a push here.
I’m hoping we get to see a big day vote comeback to spice up this contest here, so I’m ultimately going to side with them in hopes of getting an exciting match. Who really knows what could happen here. A lot of people seem very confident in Sora, but I’m not one of those people. My perfect brackets are in the hands of Sora and Riku, and it’s a less than comforting feeling, but I’m rolling with it!
Here it is. The Big One™. Dante and Sora are both roughly equal in strength if we're taking things at a 1v1 value. As much as it pains me to say, their rivalries are also probably viewed as approximately equal in the eyes of the voters. Riku is also stronger than Vergil by a noticeable amount. Seems like it should be a pretty easy match in favor of Sora then, right? Well, not quite. Sora and Riku have both been on the downturn. Both of them looked pretty darn bad last year. Like, really bad. Riku lost to Captain Falcon. Yikes. Dante on the other hand went toe-to-toe with Ryu, and likely would have won if not for Hockey Factor. Some would say the picture mattered too, and while I can certainly entertain that possibility, I don't quite buy into it as much as others might. Regardless, Dante and Vergil have a clear picture advantage tonight, so that shouldn't even come into play here.
The only thing I'd really be worried about is Dante's habit of choking away really close matches. If this ends up close, we could definitely see history repeat itself again. Luckily, I don't see this being all that close at all. Kingdom Hearts has become something of an anti-vote magnet these days and has definitely lost a lot of the favor it used to have five or so years ago. Dante might not be terribly relevant anymore either, but everything seems to be stacked up against the KH crew here and I think they're going to buckle. As they should.
Kleenex's Prediction: Dante vs. Vergil with 56.12%
Applekidjosh’s Analysis
I was so excited for this match I played Terraria for like 10 hours today. That's how I celebrate.
So everywhere I look people are hyping up this match, but I don't think it's going to be that close! I mean for this contest a 55-45 match is practically a nailbiter but still, I don't think this result is up in the air. I know Dante looked like a rock star in round 1, while Sora... well you can't really get anything out of Sora's match because nobody has any idea how strong Hitler is in this contest. My gut tells me there's a 75% chance Sora takes this, so that's what I have to go with.
AKJ predix Sora vs Riku with 54.45%
Dante’s Analysis
Okay, this is the one we've been waiting for. Sora vs Dante, the final showdown of round 2. The underachieving favorite versus the overachieving underdog. I'll be honest here, I'm not sure who I'm going to take. This is a complete coinflip for me, so lets look at some stuff: Votes. Sora and Dante actually got around the same number of votes, even though there vote totals were way higher for Sora. Does this mean anything? Probably not, but those 20k votes sora managed to get against hitler are absolute locks for him to get again. I really can't get anything from Dante's performance - he blew out a couple of guys literally no one cares about. So really, was hitlers strength his own or was is the strength of people hating sora? I honestly have no idea and I could see this match going either way. I feel almost lopenesque doing this but
I return to the crew to insult and mock Dante! No, not the newbie that took my spot and writes an average of 7 words per writeup, but the contest veteran of ten years who has never had a truly impressive performance in his life.
Let's go back through some contest history.
2002: Fresh off of the immensely popular and influential Devil May Cry, Dante faces then-unknown Crono and gets doubled. Dante was probably the bracket favourite here and didn't even come close. Kind of embarrassing, but that's because nobody knew what Crono could be. Not his fault, really, but the first disappointing performance.
2003: Dante faces Ryu and loses cleanly after a big performance in round 1.
2006: Dante smashes Ryu Hayabusa with a 65/35 while Yoshi could only get 55% on Riku. (A year or two later, Hayabusa and Riku were virtual equals, so this is a clear win for Dante.) What happens? Dante chokes and loses a 51-49 match to Yoshi.
2007: Loses a match to Pikachu. We all blame Leon/Dante SFF because it makes no sense.
2008: Loses cleanly to Kirby.
2009: Probably the most damning of them all: Dante, clearly above Ryu at this point, goes for a 70/30 on Axel. Ryu can't match his percentage on the clearly weaker Balthier. Dante sucks it up and loses 51/49 to Ryu.
Dante has never won against a notable opponent in his life with the exception of a SFF fest with Luigi and Pikachu. He is great at running up big numbers against mid-tier opponents but when it comes down to it, Dante folds.
Why? Simple: he's very well-known but his games are anything but. He couldn't get a game into the first game contest and his series wasn't good enough to be in the series contest. Devil May Cry 3 made the most recent game contest and couldn't double a game that didn't even come out in English, and then got nearly doubled by a Metroid game.
Dante *should* win this match. Sora's on the downswing and Dante looks so much cooler. Dante just put up a much more impressive result in round 1. But he won't, because he's Dante, the upper-tier version of Donkey Kong. Sorry Lopen. Sorry Kleenex.
transience's prediction: Sora vs. Riku with 54.32%
Crew Consensus: Sora/Riku is the Crew favorite in a 4-3 split.