~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/
~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA
SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.
Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
I'm surprised that most in the Oracle are predicting Squall/Seifer to get over 55% on Sora/Riku. Doesn't that sound too high?
In 4-ways, Sora got 48.17% on Squall, then 48.99% when Cloud was added in. In my hyper-adjusted x-stats Sora is projected to get 46.63% on Squall. Now many suspect Sora has gotten weaker since then, however Riku should be stronger than Seifer.
So, why are most predicting Squall/Seifer to hit over 55% on Sora/Riku? Is it because of SFF?
From: creativename | #004 I'm surprised that most in the Oracle are predicting Squall/Seifer to get over 55% on Sora/Riku. Doesn't that sound too high?
In 4-ways, Sora got 48.17% on Squall, then 48.99% when Cloud was added in. In my hyper-adjusted x-stats Sora is projected to get 46.63% on Squall. Now many suspect Sora has gotten weaker since then, however Riku should be stronger than Seifer.
So, why are most predicting Squall/Seifer to hit over 55% on Sora/Riku? Is it because of SFF?
There is no reason to think Riku > Seifer other than the fact that he hasn't made it in, which is not an actual statistical gauge of strength (see: Charizard)
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From: red sox 777 | #007 I'd take Squall to get substantially higher than 55% on Sora 1v1 nowadays, even without SFF. Sora looked awful last year.
In night matches....
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From: Achromatic | #005 There is no reason to think Riku > Seifer other than the fact that he hasn't made it in, which is not an actual statistical gauge of strength (see: Charizard)
Yes there is. Riku is the second biggest character in the Kindgom Hearts series. Seifer is like, number 8 (at best) in Final Fantasy VIII, and you could probably argue Edea, Cid, and Ultemecia are ahead of him, putting him at #12, in his one single game.
There is also that KH>FF VIII on this site.
So while I am not saying Riku will be stronger than Seifer, there are plenty or reasons to if you are one of them that is feeling that way.
From: red sox 777 | #011 I seriously doubt Seifer is only the 8th strongest character in FFVIII. Also, FFVIII probably beats either KH game, though it's close.
I wasn't saying 8th strongest, (no right thinking human could think Cid>Seifer in GameFAQs contest strength), I was saying 8-11th most important in the game.
Also, no way FF VIII takes KH. And they are about dead even with each other.
From: Karma Hunter | #391 I don't even think Cloud/Seph beat Link/Ganon (the latter will have the mother of all rallies if it's threatened I'd bet, and I wouldn't expect Cloud/Seph to have anything resembling a cushion). But it should be assured of 46.5%+, what Cloud is worth on Link. A range that must fall between 46.5-49.99 is not something I'd be dumb enough to bet a testicle on.
From: Achromatic | #005 There is no reason to think Riku > Seifer other than the fact that he hasn't made it in, which is not an actual statistical gauge of strength (see: Charizard)
I suppose, but I just don't see Seifer being all that strong these days. Squall had KH to boost him. Seifer was apparently in KH2, though I don't know how big his role was, and I doubt it means much to his strength. Seifer has probably not aged as well as Squall.
But yes, it's not inconceivable that Seifer and Riku are of comparable strength. However Riku would be expected to get around 25% on Link and I have a hard time seeing Seifer managing that - but perhaps I'm underestimating Seifer.
What do others think Seifer would get on Link?
From: red sox 777 | #009 Sora looked so awful that even giving him a generous 2-3% boost to account for the night matches, he still looked bad.
If you adjust him to 47% on Bowser, what's so awful about that? Bowser is strong, 47% on him isn't bad.
Leon - where's the page on the board 8 wiki that shows your adjusted stats for the last character contest? Because I think my page for your stats has errors and isn't your actual stats:
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Behold the majesty that is Doom. Feast upon his greatness, and know you will never measure up. http://img.imgcake.com/Punny/scenemaybecompletepngre.png
14_and_counting posted... Seifer is like, number 8 (at best) in Final Fantasy VIII, and you could probably argue Edea, Cid, and Ultemecia are ahead of him, putting him at #12, in his one single game.
There is also that KH>FF VIII on this site.
LOL what?
The only people Seifer could lose to are Zell, Laguna, and Ultimecia.
From: pjbasis | #023 14_and_counting posted... Seifer is like, number 8 (at best) in Final Fantasy VIII, and you could probably argue Edea, Cid, and Ultemecia are ahead of him, putting him at #12, in his one single game.
There is also that KH>FF VIII on this site.
LOL what?
The only people Seifer could lose to are Zell, Laguna, and Ultimecia.
Literally posted EXACTLY what I was saying there, and you still got it wrong. I am not saying in contest strength they are ahead of him, I am saying in game relevance they are ahead of him. Seifer is behind all 6 main members, and Laguna, and probably Ultimecia, Edea, and Cid.
From: 14_and_counting | #010 Seifer is like, number 8 (at best) in Final Fantasy VIII, and you could probably argue Edea, Cid, and Ultemecia are ahead of him, putting him at #12, in his one single game.
This is stupid even for you.
Seifer is 4th most important at worst. Only Squall, Rinoa, and Laguna have him beat. LOL if you actually think Selphie, Quistis, or Irvine are more important to FFVIII than Seifer.
I suppose you're confusing "importance" with "screen time" or something.
Seifer's strength is probably helped a lot by being so awesome in the first part of the game. Sure, he does little after, but I doubt that matters much.
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From: pjbasis | #027 LeonhartFour posted... From: 14_and_counting | #010 Seifer is 4th most important at worst. Only Squall, Rinoa, and Laguna have him beat.
AND Seifer is featured on the back of the instruction manual and on the cover of the game.
He's the main antagonist throughout the game (that actually has a form anyway, since Ultemecia does not) and your foil. Of course he gets position on the game cases and such. Hell, it makes even more sense with the whole semi love triangle that went on from last Summer. Still, there is no way he is more important (at least by a significant margin) to the overall plot of the game than Cid or Edea, and I would have a hard time saying either of them is even as important as Selphie overall. (I'm guessing she is the least important character plot wise, maybe Zell)
I don't get this if it wasn't for Skyward Sword stuff.
Don't you think SS would have affected the past Link matches already? If the results of the matches make it look like Cloud has a shot...then he has a shot.
It was never a lock. I don't think most people treated it like one either.....a strong favorite, sure. It's also silly to say that Cloud can't win this contest because people got burned in a contest with completely different circumstances 5 years ago.
From: red sox 777 | #037 It's also silly to say that Cloud can't win this contest because people got burned in a contest with completely different circumstances 5 years ago.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that.
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I have Sora in my bracket and while I won't be risking my perfect battle bracket on it, he's scaring me.
consider: Seifer basically limits Squall to just FF8. some other examples of characters limited to just one game/series: Solid Snake, Samus, Ness. all guys that have disappointed. Squall is in the same boat.
Seifer does not beat Riku. Squall should retain *some* of his KH power just due to people preferring him to Sora in KH, but I don't feel good saying this is going to be 60/40.
Ness did fine. Not sure what was bad about his performance. Being worth 37% on the divisional champ is better than I would've expected out of Ness/Giygas pre-contest!
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Wow, easily the best performance from these two and the best Square performance of the contest (rivaled only by Terra/Kefka in R1). This isn't Kratos - some appeal-only scrub waiting to get blown up in a format like this - this is Solid Snake, a top 5-6 on the site and the guy who has taken greater advantage of FFVII hate than anyone else. Not since 2009 has FFVII looked this good in a single match. If Link hadn't activated God Mode for three consecutive matches, I'd be getting hype for the semifinal, and even now I don't think it's a lock. These redeemed votals are a good sign, anyway.
Cloud/Seph are handicapped by the first semifinal, however. Mario/Trainers should draw more (relative) votals than any SFF match in some time, and whether these new Nintendo fans prefer Mario or Pokemon, they'll probably prefer Zelda to FFVII.
Yeah, hard to complain about Ness much after Portal 2, Giygas, and seeing the rest of the division. Many of us would have taken him to be last in his division, and even last place (Shepard/Saren) looks better than I thought before Link crushes them all.
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Even if Cloudoth win the match I think they will lose the final since people will say<What 2 days in a row these guys?I shall anti-vote them!>
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