Board 8 > New Hampshire Primary Stats and Discussion

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KingBartz
01/10/12 2:44:00 AM
#1:


These people start voting at midnight(well, in a couple towns)!

Mitt Romney 7
Ron Paul 5
Jon Huntsman 4
Newt Gingrich 2
Rick Perry 1
Rick Santorum 0

lol Santorum

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redrocket
01/10/12 2:55:00 AM
#2:


lol Santorum

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Mershaaay
01/10/12 8:22:00 AM
#3:


hey he's only down by 7 votes technically!


Results here: http://livewire.wmur.com/Event/New_Hampshire_Primary_Election_Results

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GaryOak151
01/10/12 8:27:00 AM
#4:


New Hampshire is pretty irrelevant this year. Romney will win and win big, and Santorum will do awful. Campaigning in New Hampshire instead of South Carolina was a huge mistake and teh reason romney will be the nominee.

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RappinHobo9292
01/10/12 8:33:00 AM
#5:


Tag

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Mershaaay
01/10/12 8:49:00 AM
#6:


As I predicted before the primaries started, Romney wins Iowa, decimates everyone in NH, wins SC and Florida. After Florida, everyone drops out besides Ron Paul and Romney sweeps the rest of the primaries.

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AlecTrevelyan006
01/10/12 9:40:00 AM
#7:


From: GaryOak151 | #004
New Hampshire is pretty irrelevant this year. Romney will win and win big, and Santorum will do awful. Campaigning in New Hampshire instead of South Carolina was a huge mistake and teh reason romney will be the nominee.


If we just care who wins, then yeah, NH primary is irrelevant this year.

Of course, that would be a severe underestimation of the other parts of the process.

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GaryOak151
01/10/12 9:47:00 AM
#8:


Unless Romney or Santorum has a surprising result the status quo is unshooken

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Altimadark
01/10/12 9:52:00 AM
#9:


GaryOak151 posted...
Unless Ron Paul has a surprising result the status quo is unshooken

Fix'd

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AlecTrevelyan006
01/10/12 10:06:00 AM
#10:


From: GaryOak151 | #008
Unless Romney or Santorum has a surprising result the status quo is unshooken


Plenty of other things that could happen.

If Huntsman does well, he stays in the race. I don't think he has a chance at getting the nomination overall, but it'll give him a media boost and funding and draw off votes from others.

Plus, no matter how Romney, Paul, Santorum, Huntsman or Gingrich do, the media will find some angle to spin it one way or the other, and seeing as the primary process is heavily based on perception rather than reality, it could have a big impact.

Sure, South Carolina will almost definitely be way more important. But it's not like we can say "oh, NH primary, I'll turn off the news for a week and nothing will change".

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Mershaaay
01/10/12 1:43:00 PM
#11:


I'm reading reports that if Mitt breaks 60%, the RNC will pressure the other candidates to drop out

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KingButz
01/10/12 2:49:00 PM
#12:


Should start getting results in an hour or so.

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AlecTrevelyan006
01/10/12 4:22:00 PM
#13:


From: Mershaaay | #011
I'm reading reports that if Mitt breaks 60%, the RNC will pressure the other candidates to drop out


So if he polls at 150% of his current numbers?

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KingButz
01/10/12 4:30:00 PM
#14:


Another Precinct reported:

Romney , Mitt GOP 616 38%
Paul , Ron GOP 370 23%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 261 16%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 184 11%
Santorum , Rick GOP 153 9%
Perry , Rick GOP 5 0%

DAT Ron Paul board vote

And now lol Perry

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KingButz
01/10/12 4:35:00 PM
#15:


Romney , Mitt GOP 859 35%
Paul , Ron GOP 652 27%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 342 14%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 266 11%
Santorum , Rick GOP 264 11%
Perry , Rick GOP 7 0%

Ron Paul pulling away from the rest with a cut.

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th3l3fty
01/10/12 4:35:00 PM
#16:


that's just the board vote spilling over

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Wanglicious
01/10/12 4:38:00 PM
#17:


like him or not, it's quite pleasing and heartwarming to see ron paul legitimately polling in 2nd despite the severe lack of attention and joke status he got put.

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KingButz
01/10/12 4:42:00 PM
#18:


11 precincts reporting

Romney , Mitt GOP 4,380 37%
Paul , Ron GOP 2,859 24%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 1,724 15%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 1,387 12%
Santorum , Rick GOP 1,221 10%
Perry , Rick GOP 73 1%

Yeah, looks like 1 and 2 are pretty much set. Although the precincts that have reported so far are mainly in areas he did well in last year.

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Emporer_Kazbar
01/10/12 4:43:00 PM
#19:


Paul looking pretty decent. Liking that Huntsman percentage, too.

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th3l3fty
01/10/12 4:48:00 PM
#20:


heartwarming? Ron Paul will always do well, but he's never going to go much higher than he does

that's just how he is

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KingButz
01/10/12 4:49:00 PM
#21:


14(of 301) precincts reporting

Romney , Mitt GOP 5,185 37%
Paul , Ron GOP 3,486 25%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 2,087 15%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 1,628 11%
Santorum , Rick GOP 1,428 10%
Perry , Rick GOP 97 1%

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SmartMuffin
01/10/12 4:50:00 PM
#22:


From: th3l3fty | #021
heartwarming? Ron Paul will always do well, but he's never going to go much higher than he does

that's just how he is


He's getting 25%. A few months ago it was "he'll never get more than his 10%."

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KingButz
01/10/12 4:51:00 PM
#23:


16 precincts reporting

Romney , Mitt GOP 5,702 36%
Paul , Ron GOP 3,989 25%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 2,315 15%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 1,778 11%
Santorum , Rick GOP 1,576 10%
Perry , Rick GOP 112 1%

Huntsman still hasn't convincingly pulled away from his competition.

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foolm0ron
01/10/12 4:51:00 PM
#24:


Really surprised by Paul here considering he gets no hype at all from media

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KingButz
01/10/12 4:52:00 PM
#25:


From: foolm0ron | #024
Really surprised by Paul here considering he gets no hype at all from media


He is actually getting a ton of coverage now, though. He was mobbed yesterday by reporters at an event.

But then again it might not all be positive coverage...

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KingButz
01/10/12 4:53:00 PM
#26:


20 precincts

Romney , Mitt GOP 6,009 36%
Paul , Ron GOP 4,239 25%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 2,511 15%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 1,864 11%
Santorum , Rick GOP 1,673 10%
Perry , Rick GOP 116 1%

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foolm0ron
01/10/12 4:55:00 PM
#27:


Romney continues pulling away from Paul

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PartOfYourWorld
01/10/12 4:56:00 PM
#28:


From: KingButz | #025
But then again it might not all be positive coverage...


I was watching MSNBC a couple hours ago (only news network I get), and I heard Chris Matthews actually say "if it's Paul in second, who cares, but if it's Huntsman..."

It's disgraceful. Paul is now the #2 guy in this race (a strong third in Iowa and strong second here) and gets less coverage than any of the other candidates with the lone exception of Hunstman, who polls at like 3% in any state other than New Hampshire.

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KingButz
01/10/12 4:56:00 PM
#29:


26/301

Romney , Mitt GOP 7,292 36%
Paul , Ron GOP 4,912 24%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 3,117 16%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 2,221 11%
Santorum , Rick GOP 2,013 10%
Perry , Rick GOP 134 1%

Huntsman trying to cut

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KingButz
01/10/12 4:59:00 PM
#30:


31/301

Romney , Mitt GOP 8,212 35%
Paul , Ron GOP 5,788 25%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 3,757 16%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 2,518 11%
Santorum , Rick GOP 2,294 10%
Perry , Rick GOP 162 1%

We be at 10%

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SmartMuffin
01/10/12 4:59:00 PM
#31:


Santorum finishing behind Gingrich is pretty lol-worthy. Maybe this kills his momentum for SC?

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AlecTrevelyan006
01/10/12 5:01:00 PM
#32:


From: PartOfYourWorld | #028
I was watching MSNBC a couple hours ago (only news network I get), and I heard Chris Matthews actually say "if it's Paul in second, who cares, but if it's Huntsman..."

It's disgraceful. Paul is now the #2 guy in this race (a strong third in Iowa and strong second here) and gets less coverage than any of the other candidates with the lone exception of Hunstman, who polls at like 3% in any state other than New Hampshire.


To be fair, after Paul took 3rd in Iowa, Huntsman in 2nd would shake things up far more than Paul in the immediate future. This is the make or break for Huntsman's campaign. Again, not that he'll win, but his performance tonight determines how long he hangs in the race taking up votes, funding and media coverage is relevant.

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KingButz
01/10/12 5:01:00 PM
#33:


New Hampshire - 33 of 301 Precincts Reporting - 11%

Romney , Mitt GOP 8,856 36%
Paul , Ron GOP 6,126 25%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 4,207 17%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 2,658 11%
Santorum , Rick GOP 2,419 10%
Perry , Rick GOP 167 1%

Huntsman actually cut Paul there

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SmartMuffin
01/10/12 5:03:00 PM
#34:


From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #032
To be fair, after Paul took 3rd in Iowa, Huntsman in 2nd would shake things up far more than Paul in the immediate future. This is the make or break for Huntsman's campaign. Again, not that he'll win, but his performance tonight determines how long he hangs in the race taking up votes, funding and media coverage is relevant.


It's literally impossible for Ron Paul to "shake things up" because no matter what he does, the media will ignore and/or marginalize him. He could win the nomination and win the presidency and the headlines the next morning would be about the electoral results for the House and Senate <_<

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Achromatic
01/10/12 5:04:00 PM
#35:


I like Paul because despite not agreeing with everything he says I know he actually stands for stuff.

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JDTAY
01/10/12 5:04:00 PM
#36:


Damnit, I'm going to lose my Romney spread bet on another forum, thanks to Ron Paul. There goes all my GeekGold. :-(

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KingButz
01/10/12 5:05:00 PM
#37:


I have a feeling that if he won the nomination he would get a fair amount of attention.

Of course a lot of the attention (esp. from Fox News) would be "REPUBLICAN PARTY IS DOOMED OMG"

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Wanglicious
01/10/12 5:05:00 PM
#38:


heartwarming? Ron Paul will always do well,

what the hell did i read.

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Wanglicious
01/10/12 5:07:00 PM
#39:


i agree with very little that he says too.
and despite that, he's the only one i am absolutely convinced answered the question of what he'd do on a saturday night honestly.

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KingButz
01/10/12 5:08:00 PM
#40:


New Hampshire - 36 of 301 Precincts Reporting - 12%

Romney , Mitt GOP 9,449 35%
Paul , Ron GOP 6,501 24%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 4,635 17%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 2,797 11%
Santorum , Rick GOP 2,575 10%
Perry , Rick GOP 174 1%

Another Huntsman cut

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KingButz
01/10/12 5:12:00 PM
#41:


New Hampshire - 41 of 301 Precincts Reporting - 14%

Romney , Mitt GOP 10,393 36%
Paul , Ron GOP 7,029 24%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 5,243 18%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 3,029 10%
Santorum , Rick GOP 2,758 9%
Perry , Rick GOP 188 1%

Third consecutive Huntsman cut. He's impressing at this point.

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JDTAY
01/10/12 5:13:00 PM
#42:


Haven't all of New Hampshire's delegates been stripped of votes this year because they moved up the primary? It's kind of a hollow victory. Same goes for South Carolina.

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Wanglicious
01/10/12 5:15:00 PM
#43:


the projected winner of NH or the nomination.
'cause really being where we were 8 months ago is entertaining. for the same reason we thought then too.

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special_sauce
01/10/12 5:15:00 PM
#44:


[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
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special_sauce
01/10/12 5:16:00 PM
#45:


Scrubs:
Rick Perry 188 0.6%
Michele Bachmann 40 0.1%

"other" more than doubles the combined percentage of the two losers with 1.7%

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AlecTrevelyan006
01/10/12 5:16:00 PM
#46:


From: JDTAY | #043
Haven't all of New Hampshire's delegates been stripped of votes this year because they moved up the primary? It's kind of a hollow victory. Same goes for South Carolina.


They have a penalty, they only get 12 delegates due to moving up their primary. Much like Iowa had a penalty.

But just like Iowa, this contest was never about the delegates.

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SmartMuffin
01/10/12 5:16:00 PM
#47:


lol, Obama only has 80% of the votes in the Democratic primary...

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KingButz
01/10/12 5:16:00 PM
#48:


Mitt Romney is now the projected winner of the Primary.

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foilfence27
01/10/12 5:17:00 PM
#49:


I'm thinking Perry sticks around til SC and drops out soon after. Not sure what Santorum's plan is really.
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KingButz
01/10/12 5:19:00 PM
#50:


New Hampshire - 48 of 301 Precincts Reporting - 16%

Romney , Mitt GOP 12,036 35%
Paul , Ron GOP 8,422 25%
Huntsman , Jon GOP 5,977 18%
Gingrich , Newt GOP 3,545 10%
Santorum , Rick GOP 3,269 10%
Perry , Rick GOP 220 1%

And Ron Paul takes back all the cuts Huntsman made and then some.

All the polls should be closed by now.

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