Board 8 > XFD Obama losing in November confirmed

(+) Yeah! (+)

Man, you couldn't time my "Crawl out from under the rock" comment better if you tried

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in before desperate liberals damage control the poll

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You're missing the real central theme to the Conservative movement for the past 12 years. "Motivate the crazy evangelicals by playing to whatever Biblical lunacy will get them to crawl out from under their rock and vote". Karl Rove figured this out, and for the most part, it's worked. However, the plan hits a really big snag when you start trying to play to two kinds of crazy evangelical at once

This is covered under "the ends justify the means." Combine this with the principle that inaction can never be affirmatively bad, and you get a framework of thought that allows a great deal of doublethink. Against Obama, Romney's Mormonism will be a non-issue.

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MRNlCEWATCH posted...
in before desperate liberals damage control the poll

The poll is probably skewed toward Obama if anything. Remember all those Prop 8 polls, and the polls in Maine? They had gay marriage passing by a few points, only to be decimated on election day.

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Wow... That's a drastic change in the last few days.

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Romney basically echoes exactly my thoughts on the matter:

“I believe that my record as a person who has supported civil rights is strong and powerful. At the same time, I believe that marriage has been defined the same way for literally thousands of years by virtually every civilization in history, and that marriage is literally, by its definition, a relationship between a man and a woman. And if two people of the same gender want to live together, want to have a loving relationship, or even to adopt a child -- in my state individuals of the same sex were able to adopt children. In my view, that’s something that people have a right to do. But to call that marriage is something that in my view is a departure from the real meaning of that word.”

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XFD literally trying to use Rasmussen polls seriously

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GaryOak151 posted...
XFD literally trying to use Rasmussen polls seriously

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

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SephG, do you understand how daily tracking polls work? Taking one tracking poll in a vacuum is really really stupid. Gallup is the most variable tracking poll of all, Obama will be up (and later, down) in it very soon.

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GaryOak151 posted...
SephG, do you understand how daily tracking polls work? Taking one tracking poll in a vacuum is really really stupid. Gallup is the most variable tracking poll of all, Obama will be up (and later, down) in it very soon.

"XFD literally posting a Rasmussen poll"

*posts a poll showing similar results*

"XFD literally posting a gallup tracking poll"



Can't win with this guy

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Gallup is reputable and taking an average of a few days of their tracking poll is perfectly legitimate.

Rasmussen is a joke and alwyas has been, they make up numbers that fit their narrative until right before the election when they actually poll for real so they don'lt lose their reputation.

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Rasmussen is indeed known as being absolute BS. The Gallup is far more damning, but it's both too early to properly judge the reaction and too far from the election for any reaction to matter.

In any case, don't trust polls. In my recent provincial election, one party was consistently at 40% or more, with the next competitor being 30% or less. The actual election saw the 30% party win easily.

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in after desperate liberals damage control the poll

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I'm Conservative actually, just Canadian Conservative. As in, I think liberal on social issues but don't raise my taxes.

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MRNlCEWATCH posted...
in before desperate liberals damage control the poll

LMFAO totally on cue

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Mershaaay posted...
At the same time, I believe that marriage has been defined the same way for literally thousands of years by virtually every civilization in history, and that marriage is literally, by its definition, a relationship between a man and a woman.

*sigh*

People are still using this argument?

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I think wasting time attacking Obama on gay marriage would be a waste of time for the Republicans, especially considering trends on the opinion of gay marriage.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/09/support-for-gay-marriage-outweighs-opposition-in-polls/#more-30767

Now, it is entirely possible (and likely) that people who are against gay marriage are more likely to turn out and vote (especially considering the widely varying view of gay marriage based on age and how elderly are more likely to vote than teenagers or individuals in their twenties). But with the multitude of actual issues republicans could attack him on, wasting time on this almost seems like falling for a trap.

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Moops?
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Suprak the Stud posted...
I think wasting time attacking Obama on gay marriage would be a waste of time for the Republicans, especially considering trends on the opinion of gay marriage.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/09/support-for-gay-marriage-outweighs-opposition-in-polls/#more-30767

Now, it is entirely possible (and likely) that people who are against gay marriage are more likely to turn out and vote (especially considering the widely varying view of gay marriage based on age and how elderly are more likely to vote than teenagers or individuals in their twenties). But with the multitude of actual issues republicans could attack him on, wasting time on this almost seems like falling for a trap.

National polls on gay marriage have proven worthless literally every time it comes up.

For example, do you really think the nation on average is as liberal as Maine and California? Most definitely not-- and those two states passed popular referenda banning gay marriage (CA did it twice).

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National polls on gay marriage have proven worthless literally every time it comes up.

For example, do you really think the nation on average is as liberal as Maine and California? Most definitely not-- and those two states passed popular referenda banning gay marriage (CA did it twice).

You need to analyze the metadata and then you would find that the difference between presidential polling and these gay marriage polls is that the gay marriage polls do not select for "likely voters". You can argue all you want against the trend, but just by analyzing the polling results by age, you can see that there is a significant generational difference in the opinion of gay marriage.

Old people vote. Young people don't. That is why gay marriage laws will continue to be voted down until this crop of old people die off.

But even still, focusing on this would be a complete waste of time considering you could actually be using your time to focus on the economy.

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Moops?
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Mershaaay posted...
For example, do you really think the nation on average is as liberal as Maine and California? Most definitely not-- and those two states passed popular referenda banning gay marriage (CA did it twice).

I don't know about Maine, but the California one was weirdly worded, and had a lot of misinformation spread about it by attack ads.

I had a roommate who was supporting Prop 8 because he somehow thought opposing it meant teaching homosexuality in schools. This guy lived in San Francisco, and had me for a roommate (and to the best of my knowledge had no problems with me). If prop 8 had been worded "ban gay marriage" I assume he wouldn't have been so easily fooled, and would have opposed it.

This is a different situation--Obama gets to choose his own wording here, there's no twisting of words to mislead people.

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metroid composite posted...
I don't know about Maine, but the California one was weirdly worded, and had a lot of misinformation spread about it by attack ads.

I had a roommate who was supporting Prop 8 because he somehow thought opposing it meant teaching homosexuality in schools. This guy lived in San Francisco, and had me for a roommate (and to the best of my knowledge had no problems with me). If prop 8 had been worded "ban gay marriage" I assume he wouldn't have been so easily fooled, and would have opposed it.

This is a different situation--Obama gets to choose his own wording here, there's no twisting of words to mislead people.

The idiocy of your friend ought be blamed on no one else but him.

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Mershaaay posted...
MRNlCEWATCH posted...
in before desperate liberals damage control the poll

LMFAO totally on cue

not only are the majority of the liberals here pretty uneducated but they are also pretty predictable as well

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Mershaaay posted...
metroid composite posted...
I don't know about Maine, but the California one was weirdly worded, and had a lot of misinformation spread about it by attack ads.

I had a roommate who was supporting Prop 8 because he somehow thought opposing it meant teaching homosexuality in schools. This guy lived in San Francisco, and had me for a roommate (and to the best of my knowledge had no problems with me). If prop 8 had been worded "ban gay marriage" I assume he wouldn't have been so easily fooled, and would have opposed it.

This is a different situation--Obama gets to choose his own wording here, there's no twisting of words to mislead people.

The idiocy of your friend ought be blamed on no one else but him.

its board 8. anecdotes are all you need to completely disregard democracy

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http://hotair.com/archives/2012/05/10/if-national-polls-show-support-for-gay-marriage-why-does-it-keep-losing-in-state-votes/

Interesting article on what we were just talking about.

Interesting because it comes from a conservative source, and says pretty much the same thing I did.

Now, there is the possibility that individuals who in their youth supported gay marriage will end up against it in their older age, but considering the drop you see across the board each time a generation is replaced, I sort of doubt that. I've been wrong in the past though.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I'd say there's also a nonnegligible group of people who support gay marriage (as in they want it to be available on an abstract level, or would prefer to live in a society that allowed it- perhaps because they are gay themselves) but feel they are obligated not to vote for it because the act of voting for it would be sinful.

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I'd say there's also a nonnegligible group of people who support gay marriage (as in they want it to be available on an abstract level, or would prefer to live in a society that allowed it- perhaps because they are gay themselves) but feel they are obligated not to vote for it because the act of voting for it would be sinful.

Hm. That is an interesting point I hadn't even really considered. I had seen polls where there is actually a decent amount of some religious individuals (notably Catholics, if I remember) that said they supported same sex marriage. However, whether or not they support it AND would vote to enact it are two different things.

I wonder if a poll has ever been conducted that way? I shall have to go look.

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Moops?
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