Board 8 > The Board 8 [Survivor: Game Changers - Mamanuca Islands] Cast Rankdown Topic II

(+) Yeah! (+)

We're back! And almost finished. This'll wrap up before the season premieres on March 8th. We've still got 10 entries to put up!

Get your predictions in for #5!

Those contributing to the rankdown:
BlueCrystal
bwburke
Cody
darkx
Delseban
DoctorBlind
eaed
GTM
illuminatus
Inviso
Justin
Machete
Mana Sword
Peridiam
Squirrel
Storm
Surskit
YoRyan

The cast of Survivor: Game Changers:
Andrea Boehlke
Aubry Bracco
Ciera Eastin
Cirie Fields
Debbie Wanner
Hali Ford
Michaela Bradshaw
Sandra Diaz-Twine
Sarah Lacina
Sierra Dawn Thomas

Brad Culpepper
Caleb Reynolds
James "JT" Thomas
Jeff Varner
Malcolm Freberg
Oscar "Ozzy" Lusth
Tai Trang
Tony Vlachos
Troy "Troyzan" Robertson
Zeke Smith


THE CURRENT RANKDOWN LISTS:

Favorites:
1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???
6. Jeff: 7.44
7. Malcolm: 7.61
8. Tai: 8.06
9. Andrea: 8.61
10. JT: 9.61
11. Debbie: 10.00
12. Ciera: 12.28
13. Zeke: 12.61
14. Sarah: 12.83
15. Caleb: 13.33
16. Hali: 13.72
17. Brad: 14.94
18. Sierra: 15.33
19. Ozzy: 17.17
20. Troyzan: 17.33

Chance to Win:
1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???
6. Sierra: 6.81
7. Caleb: 7.88
8. Hali: 8.25
9. JT: 9.25
10. Sarah: 10.50
11. Jeff: 11.38
12. Cirie: 11.81
13. Tai: 12.13
14. Ciera: 12.44
15. Troyzan: 13.63
16. Debbie: 13.81
17. Ozzy: 14.07
18. Tony: 15.31
19. Brad: 15.38
20. Sandra: 15.88


Clue for both lists #5 - #1: There are no more clues from here on out. Take your best guess!
---

Castaways Remaining:

Favorites:
Aubry Bracco
Cirie Fields
Michaela Bradshaw
Sandra Diaz-Twine
Tony Vlachos

Chance to Win:
Andrea Boehlke
Aubry Bracco
Malcolm Freberg
Michaela Bradshaw
Zeke Smith
---

FAVORITES:
1. ???
2. ???
3. Tai Trang
4. Debbie Wanner
5. ???
6. ???
7. Ciera Eastin
8. Andrea Boehlke
9. ???
10. Caleb Reynolds
11. Sarah Lacina
12. Malcolm Freberg
13. James "J.T." Thomas
14. Zeke Smith
15. Jeff Varner
16. Ozzy Lusth
17. Troy Robertson
18. Sierra Dawn Thomas
19. Hali Ford
20. Brad Culpepper

ODDS TO WIN:
1. ???
2. Caleb Reynolds
3. ???
4. Hali Ford
5. Cirie Fields
6. Ozzy Lusth
7. ???
8. James "J.T." Thomas
9. ???
10. ???
11. Debbie Wanner
12. Sierra Dawn Thomas
13. Ciera Eastin
14. Sarah Lacina
15. Tai Trang
16. Jeff Varner
17. Sandra Diaz-Twine
18. Brad Culpepper
19. Tony Vlachos
20. Troy Robertson
---

Tag
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Hyped
---

Favorites #5. Michaela Bradshaw - 6.89
GTM: 1
Cody: 1
Justin: 1
Surskit: 3
Ryan: 3
Mana Sword: 4
Squirrel: 4
Inviso: 5
Doc: 6
Blue: 7
Dels: 9
darkx: 9
eaed: 10
Machete: 10
Peridiam: 11
Storm: 11
illuminatus: 12
burke: 17

I just love everything about Michaela. I want her on my TV always. - Justin

I have her 1st whaaaaaat - GTM

Pleeeeease make merge this time. One of the best female characters Survivor has seen in years. Her blindside still sends chills down my spine. I hope she three-peats. I'm serious, I already can't wait to have her back and I haven't even seen GC yet. She's that good. - Surskit

My favorite pre-merge boot ever. The best part of every episode she's in. - Squirrel

Robbed and deserves all the second chances - Inviso

Michaela was taken from us far too soon last season. Unlike Zeke, I think they definitely made the right choice to bring her back. Hopefully she tones it down like half a notch to avoid getting targeted early again. - Mana Sword

Her intensity is amazing. Her competitiveness is amazing. Her expressiveness is entertaining. She was one of my favorites last season - especially after "Ta-tas" - but the only knock is how poorly she took losing. - Blue

So if I had done this ranking project for 2nd Chances (did I? Was there one? Maybe I did? Feel free to remind me if I did and the records still exist...), I would have (or did) put Wentworth pretty high on my list. Michaela is in a similar position. High potential in original season but got screwed over, and therefore I would like to see her learn from that and flourish this time. The difference though... Wentworth was mostly screwed by a tribe shuffle. Michaela... played a more active part in her own downfall. Due to that, my expectations are lower and thus her placement is lower. Still, I have faith in her as a player and I would like to see her do well this time. I said that about Wentworth too and she proved it. Hopefully (casting and) I will be right this time too. In Michaela's though, I'm a little more skeptical. Her mouth got her into trouble. This could happen again. We shall see. - Machete

She’s pretty funny. - eaed

She's good, but there's a little X factor in every contestant above her that I personally prefer more. Makes for electric TV though, I hope she does well. - Peridiam

This is probably fitting, but while she's not Top 10, I am actually sort of looking forward to Michaela. While at times, yeah, she got to be a little bit annoying, I do sort of get the appeal, and she did have enough potential to warrant coming back. That being said, I think production putting her in is being pretty damn obvious that they want her to wind up as the Kelley Wentworth of this season. - Storm

On any other season, the 14th-placer tends to be mostly irrelevant. Her supporters say she has the chance to be Wentworth 2.0, but I just don't see her playing that kind of game. - burke


Favorites:
5. Michaela: 6.89
6. Jeff: 7.44
7. Malcolm: 7.61
8. Tai: 8.06
9. Andrea: 8.61
10. JT: 9.61
11. Debbie: 10.00
12. Ciera: 12.28
13. Zeke: 12.61
14. Sarah: 12.83
15. Caleb: 13.33
16. Hali: 13.72
17. Brad: 14.94
18. Sierra: 15.33
19. Ozzy: 17.17
20. Troyzan: 17.33
---

I am hoping Michaela comes back with everything she gave us the first time, though with toning down the physical intensity so she doesn't get a similar placement. That said, she was easily fingered by Varner at pre-game Ponderosa (he can tell she's competitive and hates to lose - and gets confrontational with anyone who would make her lose), so I don't know if she has it in her to do that. She's too competitive by nature. And that's what makes her great TV. Hoping she can BRING IT!
---

Chance to Win #5. Michaela Bradshaw - 6.69
Cody: 1
Squirrel: 1
Blue: 3
Surskit: 4
Machete: 4
illuminatus: 4
Storm: 5
Justin: 6
Peridiam: 6
Doc: 7
GTM: 7
darkx: 9
eaed: 9
Inviso: 11
Dels: 13
burke: 17

A tough and smart player, if she can learn from her mistake last season, I say she owes Jay a motorcycle or something. - Cody

Won't be seen as a threat by anybody, but strategically proved herself on MvGX imo and seems smart enough to know how she messed up and how to fix it this time. - Squirrel

Michaela is as physical as some of the big guys and that's going to get them to like her. She's also the proud owner of a runny mouth and an expressive face. People are going to see her as someone who is going to push some people's buttons in the wrong way, which will make her the ideal person to take to the end. I see her as a losing finalist not just because she's going to be in the "macho" club but because she's beatable. - Blue

At this point, I have to consider not just final jurors but goats. I feel like the MvGX pair is advantaged here, especially considering they are both good players who were essentially stunted by other players wanting to upstage them. I was right about Wentworth coming back to make a statement, and I think both Michaela and Zane will be in that position as well. They also have the "you haven't seen my previous season" advantage. I want to believe Michaela learned from last time. If she can keep her mouth under control, she can take advantage of the wars between the more prominent characters. She is smart enough to do this if she stays focused. On the other hand, if she takes the right approach to make it to the end, I could very easily see her flounder and fail at FTC. I would not be surprised at all if Michaela took the goat route and finished 2nd or 3rd. - Machete

Michaela of course comes with the advantage of being an unknown, and nobody playing back-to-back seasons has ever not at least made jury. A great challenge performer, a good and trustworthy ally; Michaela has it all to make merge. After that... it gets problematic. Just like she kept mentioning at the reunion that she never imagined being outwardly strategic with the seashell scene in MvGX would put a target on her back (and she hinted she had NO IDEA until she watched the episodes, which makes me think a lil bit), I think she will be a little TOO direct, TOO evidently threatening, and ultimately get blindsided somewhere in the mid to late merge. She will be loyal and command respect, but the weakest links will grow scared and cut her off before it's too late. If she DOES make F3, though, she is winning. She might rub some men the wrong way with her no-bulls*** personality, but all in all, she is strong, well-spoken, smart and someone anybody would be willing to vote for unless they hate her. - Surskit

I can't tell whether or not Michaela learned enough from Jay's blindside but based off of her 'day after' interview I think she'll be better at shutting up and letting things happen than before. The question is whether the veterans will pick up on just how smart she is and whether they view it as an opportunity to align or a huge threat. - Justin

I've got no doubt that Michaela was brought back to be the “Kelley Wentworth” of the season, and I think she'll have a pretty strong run through the season, barring some totally out of nowhere stuff happening to her. However, I feel that unlike Zeke, she'll tend to come across as a little more threatening than he does, and people will become more worried about her and less worried about him. What I see happening with her is that somewhere around the Final 7-Final 4, people see her as a big threat and wind up just voting her out that way. But if she can get past that, then maybe we'll see. - Storm
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I think she has the chops to do really well. Being an unknown in the cast could really help her game - it's certainly done so for every other person in this spot. - Peridiam

probably has a good chance cause people don't know her but that's why they may vote her out. but also she's michaela - GTM

Michaela is in the same boat as Caleb for me. I don’t see her winning but I also don’t see her going home early. I think her mouth could get her in trouble which puts her lower than Caleb. She has a more strategic chops than Caleb but he also had a season of Big Brother so that kind of evens out. - eaed

Will likely be targeted as a threat - Inviso

Didn't understand why she was voted out last time. Likely to make the same mistake. - burke


Chance to Win:
5. Michaela: 6.69
6. Sierra: 6.81
7. Caleb: 7.88
8. Hali: 8.25
9. JT: 9.25
10. Sarah: 10.50
11. Jeff: 11.38
12. Cirie: 11.81
13. Tai: 12.13
14. Ciera: 12.44
15. Troyzan: 13.63
16. Debbie: 13.81
17. Ozzy: 14.07
18. Tony: 15.31
19. Brad: 15.38
20. Sandra: 15.88
---

Favorites: Aubry
Winners: Zeke

If I'm right, that leaves a favorites top 3 of Sandra/Cirie/Tony, and a winners top 3 of Andrea/Aubry/Malcolm, which both feel right.
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Aubry for both
---

Favorites: Aubry
Winners: Zeke
---

Tony
Zeke
---

the #1s being cut down
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GTM posted...

the #1s being cut down

I still have both :)
---

before we get into these last few rankings

i would just like to say wow i have no idea what the f*** i was on with my favourites rankings after going back and looking at my list

i wrote my lists stoned at 3am on a bus to montreal though

so actually i know what i was on
---

AdmiralZephyr posted...

GTM posted...

the #1s being cut down

I still have both :)

I do too. (:
---

me too
---

#4 favorite in an hour or two
---

AdmiralZephyr posted...

GTM posted...

the #1s being cut down

I still have both :)

I still have both too. At least, as of this posting, lol.

I have my winner left.
---

eaedwards6400 posted...

Aubry for both

---

Favorites #4. Tony Vlachos - 6.83
eaed: 2
GTM: 3
Peridiam: 3
Storm: 4
Ryan: 4
illuminatus: 4
Cody: 5
darkx: 5
Blue: 5
Inviso: 6
burke: 6
Surskit: 7
Machete: 8
Mana Sword: 8
Dels: 10
Doc: 10
Justin: 15
Squirrel: 18

I validate this placement #spyshack - GTM

He brings such ridiculous humor and bursts of energy, and he's great to imitate. - Peridiam

I actually didn't like Tony all that much during the initial airing of Cagayan. I thought he was annoying, a bit obnoxious, and seemed way too focused on the whole Idols thing. However, when I went back afterwards recently, I realized that, he's actually a lot more than that, and brought a lot more to it. I also can't help but wonder how he winds up doing without Trish around to calm people down after he does just what Tony does, and I hope he's around long enough to give us some good moments. - Storm

Tony is an epic winner, plain and simple. How he managed to seem so erratic yet be so brilliant is beyond description. He's entertaining and, unlike Hantz, likable, not to mention unpredictable. I like that I can't get a read on him because that makes Survivor all the more fun to watch. Can he win a second time? Probably not. I don't think this cast is going to allow it. - Blue

Cagayan is a top-tier season and Tony's character and win are a huge part of that. Now, if he had lost and happened to be an uber poor sport about it, he could have been a bottom 20 or so castaway of all time. But as it stands his game made an already energetic season absolutely electric and sports a W to show for it. - darkx

Tony is basically Russell Hantz done right. It was definitely amusing to see Edgic try to justify his win. - burke

Best male winner since...probably Todd, now that I think about it - Inviso

As long as he doesn't completely dominate the screentime again, Tony is one of my favorite winners and he's so, so much fun. - Surskit

I’m worried about Tony. I almost don’t want to see him come back because there’s no way he lives up to the character he was in Cagayan. I’m worried that he’ll try to force being the ‘character’ of Tony, rather than just be his normal, paranoid self. That being said, it’s impossible to not be excited about seeing him again. - Mana Sword

I originally had him lower, but after reading his character entry in the funny 115 (lol 3rd time I mention it), I feel like I didn't appreciate him as much in his first season as I should have, since I was so focused on Kass/Tasha/Spencer and never thought he had a chance at winning (editors surprised me there since they had been pretty lazy at hiding winners for a while in that era). I'm not rooting for him to win again. Definitely not. I do expect to be entertained by him again though. I would like to see some rivalry with him and Sarah, even if it's of the short-lived variety like Phillip and Francesca in Caramoan. Should be fun to watch. - Machete

I never really liked Tony that much as a person in Cagayan. He's a character who I struggle to separate from the person sometimes. Debbie, for example, is a character who I view purely as a character which makes it easier to like her more. I also don't think he'll get the chance to be as explosive or crafty as last time. - Justin

Unpopular opinion, I know, but my main impression of Tony is Russell + llama noises. He would work much better as a character if he lost to Kass, Spencer or even Woo. - Squirrel


Favorites:
4. Tony: 6.83
5. Michaela: 6.89
6. Jeff: 7.44
7. Malcolm: 7.61
8. Tai: 8.06
9. Andrea: 8.61
10. JT: 9.61
11. Debbie: 10.00
12. Ciera: 12.28
13. Zeke: 12.61
14. Sarah: 12.83
15. Caleb: 13.33
16. Hali: 13.72
17. Brad: 14.94
18. Sierra: 15.33
19. Ozzy: 17.17
20. Troyzan: 17.33
---

Tony is the definition of entertaining. That?s what I really like about him. His minus is probably his level of arrogance but I can over look it. It is no Ozzy levels lol
---

yea eaed you didn't send me your write-ups for your top two
---

Wow, nobody had Tony as #1? I'm surprised.

That said, I really, really like everyone in my top 6. Ranking that high was very difficult. Top 10 in general was tough for me, tbh.
---

yep, out of the #1 - #4 spots from both lists, tony is the only one to not be a #1 on anyones list

the other 7 entries to show up will have peoples #1's in some capacity
---

So basically from here on out, SOMEBODY is losing a #1 every single time.
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yup
---

Are my top 3 THE top three?
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Inviso posted...

Are my top 3 THE top three?

yup
---

Woohoo!
---

3 people have Aubry, Cirie, and Sandra as their top 3 favorites!

in fact those three castaways are far ahead of everyone else as the top 3 overall

their averages are also higher than cambodia's #1 B8 fave in Kass by a decent margin

essentially these 3 are the resounding faves of the board and it's not even close
---

Chance to Win #4. Andrea Boehlke - 6.50
eaed: 1
Dels: 1
Storm: 4
Blue: 5
GTM: 6
Machete: 6
burke: 6
Surskit: 6
illuminatus: 7
darkx: 7
Cody: 8
Peridiam: 8
Justin: 8
Doc: 9
Inviso: 10
Squirrel: 12

I feel really good about Andrea. In a season like this I do feel the alpha males will take out the alpha males. Then the super strategists will take out the super strategist. So who is going to stay around? Someone who is pretty good at everything. That is why I felt good about Zeke and JT too. They aren’t the best at everything but they are pretty good at it. That’s why I feel good about Andrea. She is a pretty good strategist. She is a pretty good female challenge competitor. And she is good at making moves and strategizing. So for this reason I think Andrea will be the winner of Survivor: “Game Changers.” - eaed

I feel like Andrea usually gets some random hate and dislike for some bizarre reason, but I've always thought she had a lot of potential. She was one of few people who showed signs of being able to think for themselves in Redemption Island, and showed she had grown a lot in Caramoan (despite suffering from having to deal with a rather underwhelming cast). With all the threats around, and the extra bit of time she's had to look things over, I really think Andrea has a pretty solid chance at this as long as she doesn't get complacent and cocky. - Storm

Andrea is a fantastic player all-around, but she's also the type that becomes a threat late-game. That's cost her twice and sadly is likely to cost her a third time. She has what it takes to win, she just needs to get to the final. - Blue

people know shes dangerous and stuff I dont know - GTM

This might be risky, considering some of Malcolm's write up applies to her as well, but Malcolm is probably better equipped to tackle the game and its different facets, and Andrea tends to have a weakness that gravitates her toward dudes she should have nothing to do with gameplay-wise. I want to say she's moved past that by now and learned her lesson. I think maybe this time, she can stay away from the Matts and Eddies, but if flirting will keep her safe, she won't hesitate to utilize that skill. If she dials that back, I think she's okay. Let's not forget Matt put her in a precarious position in RI, and then she survived Caramoan's first tribal only by 2 votes... and yet both times she did well overall. - Machete

Andrea is one of those people who will always make it far, and if she makes FTC, I can see her winning depending on her competition. She's a respected strategist and has a good reputation, similar to Malcolm, in that it's a good one but not necessarily a hugely threatening one. That said, I do think her tendencies to blow up her own game will catch up to her again, and she'll overplay at some point in the merge. Hopefully with classic full-on paranoia. If she somehow doesn't, though, I can see her sneaking, making moves only when it is necessary, and playing a solid game. And if she makes FTC, she's golden. - Surskit

Fit, relatively well-connected...might have some Parvati stigma though - Inviso

One of the bigger threats in the cast, and will probably be booted near the finale. - burke

Playing for a third time has its benefits. - Cody

Big Andrea fan but I think she lacks strong social bonds that can carry her to the end. She's a bit surface-level. - Peridiam

I always found Andrea oddly charismatic and I think that she'll bounce around between a lot of different alliances and make it deep if she makes it past the first view votes. She's sorta prone to blindsides but if she learned from Caramoan she could win if she strikes first. - Justin

50/50 between going far and maybe making it all the way, or overplaying and going out early. - Squirrel
---

Chance to Win:
4. Andrea: 6.50
5. Michaela: 6.69
6. Sierra: 6.81
7. Caleb: 7.88
8. Hali: 8.25
9. JT: 9.25
10. Sarah: 10.50
11. Jeff: 11.38
12. Cirie: 11.81
13. Tai: 12.13
14. Ciera: 12.44
15. Troyzan: 13.63
16. Debbie: 13.81
17. Ozzy: 14.07
18. Tony: 15.31
19. Brad: 15.38
20. Sandra: 15.88
---

Castaways Remaining:

Favorites:
Aubry Bracco
Cirie Fields
Sandra Diaz-Twine

Chance to Win:
Aubry Bracco
Malcolm Freberg
Zeke Smith
---

I put in my Google doc but forgot to tell you I updated the doc.
---

Tag.
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am i #1 outlier yet?
---

Favorites: Aubry (only based on others' predictions before)
Chance: Zeke (he should not be this high)
---

Also, great to see Michaela taking #5 on both fronts. My favorite. I so hope she'll do well.
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BlueCrystalTear posted...

Favorites: Aubry (only based on others' predictions before)
Chance: Zeke (he should not be this high)

This exactly.
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Damn, in terms of people left, I'm in REALLY good shape with both lists.

I think this is eaed's doc link for Outlier: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C0gf3KUAlUfzF33cbx817khH9pkxHvEAuLbMslf_qrg/edit#gid=1308839626

Don't think it's been updated in a few days though.
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StormTR posted...

Damn, in terms of people left, I'm in REALLY good shape with both lists.

You were the only person to have their top 4 on the Chance to Win list be the top 4!

edit: actually, you had your top 5 be the top 5.
---

Aubry
Aubry
---

Peridiam posted...

StormTR posted...

Damn, in terms of people left, I'm in REALLY good shape with both lists.

You were the only person to have their top 4 on the Chance to Win list be the top 4!

edit: actually, you had your top 5 be the top 5.

Oh damn, nice. I'll take that. Though I know I'm going to be pretty off on one of the Favourites left.

Yeah sorry. We went through a good portion this weekend and I typically update all of my stuff at the office.
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FAVORITES:
1. ???
2. ???
3. Tai Trang
4. Debbie Wanner
5. Tony Vlachos
6. ???
7. Ciera Eastin
8. Andrea Boehlke
9. Michaela Bradshaw
10. Caleb Reynolds
11. Sarah Lacina
12. Malcolm Freberg
13. James "J.T." Thomas
14. Zeke Smith
15. Jeff Varner
16. Ozzy Lusth
17. Troy Robertson
18. Sierra Dawn Thomas
19. Hali Ford
20. Brad Culpepper

ODDS TO WIN:
1. ???
2. Caleb Reynolds
3. ???
4. Hali Ford
5. Cirie Fields
6. Ozzy Lusth
7. Andrea Boehlke
8. James "J.T." Thomas
9. Michaela Bradshaw
10. ???
11. Debbie Wanner
12. Sierra Dawn Thomas
13. Ciera Eastin
14. Sarah Lacina
15. Tai Trang
16. Jeff Varner
17. Sandra Diaz-Twine
18. Brad Culpepper
19. Tony Vlachos
20. Troy Robertson


One of these things is not like the others.
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jeez aubrys going to be the 1st one out guys she almost won last time
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