Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1270

(+) Yeah! (+)

1991 will have the bracket edge

good
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nah, if anything 2004 will!
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1991 will have more brackets than 1994
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Jesus christ 1998

There goes what little debate there was that something else would win the contest.
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1992 starting to rise.

Weird that 2016 got the early board vote there.
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Any one know how many votes 1998 managed to get before 1993 got its first vote? I saw 36-0 at one point and then refreshing the results to see 38-1. Someone confirmed a 37-0 tally in this match, so 1993 got its first vote with the 38th or 39th vote overall.
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Wtf was I thinking picking 2016
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I saw it go from 38-0 to 41-1.

EDIT: So it must've been exactly 38 then.
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37 people fell off the Top 50. Former first place NowItsAngeTime, former second place xp1337, former third place mnkboy907, former fourth place Cb7799, Tirofog, GranzonEx, TayaLyn, Mac_Arrowny, TheoryzC, KingLionel, JunaiLens, Freelance-Fiend, MrHearn, SmokeRulz, gearofages, Peridiam, DragonSamurai, BlackDra90n, LightningRocks, alblito, Paratroopa1, R351D3NT3V1L4, StealThisSheen, WiggumFan267, Evillordexdeath, Nanis23, Super_Archer, franmars, goronlink, RockMFR, Inviso, JetJaguar, Choco, M0NSTER_, Lemonayde26, Janus5k and TheArkOfTurus did not have both 1994 and 2011 winning.
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I voted and it was 39-1.
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Yesterday's X-Stats:

2011 – 50.00%
2006 – 45.14%
1981 – 23.21%
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So 39 before getting voted against.
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scaryice posted...

I saw it go from 38-0 to 41-1. So either 38, 39, or 40 votes in a row without reply.

EDIT: So it must've been exactly 38 then.

Thanks, that answers my question. I personally saw a 38-1 myself.
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Aw yeah, leaderboard!
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A reminder of just how bad 1993's anchor is:

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3455-division-3-round-1-dk-country-doom-sor-ii-zelda-lttp
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Leon, this is dumb but what happens if you compare 1983's pack to 1981's?
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cyko posted...

Who thinks 1998 will finish above 90%?

I've got it winning the whole thing, with 1995 as the runner up. And that's really just because of the matchups, '98 is in a league of its own.

It weirds me out that Panzer Dragoon of all things made the 1998 picture. Half-Life or Starcraft deserve that spot more.
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When I woke up this morning, I was shocked to see FFVI at under 58%. Let's have some x-stat fun and throw all those games from 1994/2004 into creative's x-stat calculator! I will using Ngamer's x-stats (which were made by KamiKaze, I believe) I'll arbitrarily give Sonic 3 & Knuckles a 28% x-stat.

Character 140.5816.91%
Character 23815.63%
Character 33212.78%
Character 42810.99%
Character 522.548.65%
Character 625.8310.05%
Character 732.4913.01%
Character 830.2211.98%

Character 1-4 are 1994 games. Characters 5-8 are 2004 games. Add up each half and the top half gets. *drumroll*... 56.31% of the vote! Shoulda paid attention to the x-stats!
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Panzer Dragoon Saga is so out of place it's amazing

1998 could have had like 30 featured games that would be stronger than it (Granted it's probably the only Saturn game from around then so)
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oh wow 98 dropped
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Them damn Doom fans.
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transience posted...

Leon, this is dumb but what happens if you compare 1983's pack to 1981's?

2011 – 50.00%
2006 – 45.14%
1989 – 27.88%
1981 – 23.21%
1983 – 16.89%

1989 gets 30.88% on 2006.
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what about 96?
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also it makes me sad that something got less than 10,000 votes and won a match
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More people predicted 2006 than 1994

What the fuck
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Huh, I'm actually surprised that '98 is not killing '93 as hard as '91 killed '88.

Either '93 is more legit than I thought or '94 will be in a world of hurt.

I guess we shouldn't be too shocked 2004 was the slight favorite. Every year, casuals always trip over World of Warcraft. You could place it against OoT in the first round, and it would still get around 30% of brackets.
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squexa posted...

Huh, I'm actually surprised that '98 is not killing '93 as hard as '91 killed '88.

Either '93 is more legit than I thought or '94 will be in a world of hurt.

93 is def more legit than 88
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93 is obviously more legit. 93 still has some games like Doom, Link's Awakening, Secret of Mana. I mean its a weak year, but 88 is absolute crap
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transience posted...

what about 96?

oh right forgot about 1996

1996 – 50.00%
2011 – 29.25%
2006 – 26.41%
1989 – 16.31%
1981 – 13.58%
1983 – 9.88%
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2004 is the first year that actually had people complaining about the result. everything else has been expected.

2004 is a super year for video games. pretty much everyone has a game or two from that year. I'm not at all surprised that it had support.
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LeonhartFour posted...

transience posted...

what about 96?

oh right forgot about 1996

1996 – 50.00%
2011 – 29.25%
2006 – 26.41%
1989 – 16.31%
1981 – 13.58%
1983 – 9.88%

heh that's what I figured. pretty sure 96 did something special to 89, much like 91 did to 88.
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1998 dropping

FRAUD

VULNERABLE
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Tuesday truly was a culling of the masses

I'm a bit surprised 2011 was the slight favorite overall, meaning the Gurus got owned by the casuals on this match.
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call me crazy but I'm not at all impressed with 98

but that's because I think pretty low of 93 whereas I think 98 could beat #2 and #3 combined
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contest votals are barely above regular votals

this is some sad shit
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transience posted...

2004 is the first year that actually had people complaining about the result. everything else has been expected.

2004 is a super year for video games. pretty much everyone has a game or two from that year. I'm not at all surprised that it had support.

Also, second-tier SNES stuff always tends to be underrated by casuals in general. Even something like CT will have slightly less brackets than Zelda or Mario on total blowouts.
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Something tells me that not all voters actually wait to see all the match pics.

Rattata bringing down 98.
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Yesterday's charts:

Time | 1994 | 2004 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 67.27% | 32.73% | 275 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 61.51% | 38.49% | 1668 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 54.79% | 45.21% | 3550 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 59.47% | 40.53% | 2465 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 58.44% | 41.56% | 4564 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 60.45% | 39.55% | 4359 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 59.52% | 40.48% | 835 | (22:00-24:00)

Time | 2011 | 2006 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 43.45% | 56.55% | 267 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 49.57% | 50.43% | 1628 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 54.96% | 45.04% | 3457 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 55.73% | 44.27% | 2415 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 55.35% | 44.65% | 4394 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 55.97% | 44.03% | 4186 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 53.98% | 46.02% | 804 | (22:00-24:00)

1994/2004 probably has the biggest trends we've seen so far, but it makes sense if you look at Geolocation. 1994 got 61% in the U.S. and Canada, but 2004 got 55% in the U.K.
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that's probably because the UK still hasn't learned what a SNES is
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Hey, I'm on the leaderboard!

Shame I'm going to get destroyed tomorrow unless 2015 pulls an upset.
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transience posted...

that's probably because the UK still hasn't learned what a SNES is

And what exactly is a Mega Drive?
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2015 has a real good shot, I think
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GranzonEx posted...

contest votals are barely above regular votals

this is some sad shit

It's actually not quite as bad as Rivalry Rumble in drawing in votes. Rivalry Rumble's vote totals were only about 3% higher than the non-contest vote totals from the 30 days prior to the first match of that contest.

We had average vote totals of 14410 during the 30 day period before the first matches of this contest. Not counting today's matches, this contest has been averaging 16244 votes per match. Using those averages, the matches in this contest are pulling in vote totals that are 12.73% higher than our non-contest vote totals. That's better than the Rivalry Rumble which was about 3% higher than non-contest polls.
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I'm hoping Undertale gets anti votes lol
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Big Bob posted...

I suck at photoshop. Someone make a 2017 match pic with Zelda, Persona, Horizon, and Nier for me.

Couldn't think of a good headliner image for the '2017' panel.
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LeonhartFour posted...

1994/2004 probably has the biggest trends we've seen so far, but it makes sense if you look at Geolocation. 1994 got 61% in the U.S. and Canada, but 2004 got 55% in the U.K.

2011/2006 had some big trends too, although that match was all Power Hour vs. the rest of the poll.

I'm thinking 1995/1987 could have some good trends too, since 1995 is extremely dependent on Chrono Trigger and that game is almost non-existent in the UK. 1995/1986 wasn't the best match to show off sharp trend changes because that was a massive blowout.
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