Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1270

(+) Yeah! (+)

I'd go with 2013 over 2015, I think.
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I would as well

nostalgia plays a big factor in these matches and 2015 simply isn't old enough

give it another few years and I bet 2015 would be very strong
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Hopefully the tumblr blogs start lighting up in the morning, and we get a nice little reduced strength rally to carry 2015 to round 2 and no further.
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2013, if only because it's closer to 98.

I think even with this site's indifference towards GTA, I think Five probably beats most of 2015's contributions.
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why would you hope for terrible things
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yeah 2005 get it
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okay 2005 looks safe! for now anyway

2006 was at 52.98%
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Hopefully the tumblr blogs start lighting up in the morning, and we get a nice little reduced strength rally to carry 2015 to round 2 and no further.

yeah rallies don't work like that
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They did the last time Undertale was in one of these contests.

Reduced strength rally sounds like some bad generic Tylenol you'd get at a shady drug store.
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alright barring rallies and shenanigans, match is over

You people have no idea how rallies work or why they start
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owyn_merrilin posted...

They did the last time Undertale was in one of these contests.

Undertale made it to round 2 and no further?

if only
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Fair point.

you know, this is the last match that could reasonably have some rallying yeah? like a huge, insane rally

what's left?

1987
1991
1992
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2000
2001
2002
2007
2008
2011

who's rallying for something that old?
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just melee fans for 2001

which I hope doesn't happen :|
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yeah this is over
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huh, 05's ahead of 03
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So, 2003 vs. 2005?
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Picking 2013 as an upset pick is gonna end up costing me my bracket because it looks like 2003 is not only gonna win this match but the next one as well and I picked 2005 > 2013 in round two

Oh well it was a nice appearance in the Top 10 if only for a brief period
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easy match 2003 it's got Wind Waker
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2013 and 2015 look pretty similar to me on paper, so next round is looking like a real tossup.
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man, I just looked at the picture scroll. it's kind of shocking that 03 is ahead of 13 when you look at that thing. I wonder if we see any significant movement.
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TJF in full effect
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I'm really hoping for some new match pics for next round
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Honestly, if it weren't for the Undertale rally last time, I think hardly anyone here would have had any faith in 2015.
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Approximate X-Stats based off of the vote-ins:

2008 – 50.00%
2005 – 32.60%
2009 – 28.17%
2015 – 25.00%
1979 – 10.64%
1978 – 9.43%
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PSI_NESS posted...

I'm really hoping for some new match pics for next round

I have a bad feeling he's going to reuse round 1's pics, just like he did for BGE3.
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Yesterday's charts:

Time | 1998 | 1993 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 88.55% | 11.45% | 262 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 87.32% | 12.68% | 1656 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 86.03% | 13.97% | 3572 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 85.34% | 14.66% | 2326 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 85.93% | 14.07% | 4429 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 86.08% | 13.92% | 4412 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 83.41% | 16.59% | 880 | (22:00-24:00)

Time | 1992 | 2016 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 72.14% | 27.86% | 262 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 74.55% | 25.45% | 1623 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 72.36% | 27.64% | 3469 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 73.42% | 26.58% | 2295 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 72.09% | 27.91% | 4343 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 73.53% | 26.47% | 4300 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 71.97% | 28.03% | 849 | (22:00-24:00)
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Reused pics can doom 1995.
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So, here's the x-stat ratings for 2005 vs 2015:

Witcher 3 - 26.43743818
Fallout 4 - 21.51
Undertale - 17.76783314
Rocket League - X

Resident Evil 4 - 31.82113664
Shadow of the Colossus - 28.94601069
Phoenix Wright - 22.37199906
God of War - X

Ignoring Rocket League and GoW because we don't have good data on them. If you add up the X-stat values of 2015 and compare them to 2005, you get 2015 with 39.52% on 2005. At the moment, that seems pretty close!
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RIP my perfect bracket.
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Wow 15 *Sigh* Guess my creeping concerns I had about this match was valid after all, the scary part is that so far it's doing well enough that it could potentally win next round as well.

Well what I get for not letting to the nagging voice in my head about this match, was not expecting 60/40 to start though
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do this preemptively. what do you get with 95/87?
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And, darn it. I was really hoping PS4 and Xbox One pulled its weight and also was hoping people were stupid enough to vote for Undertale again, but oddly I'm glad the year Undertale is in is losing, people have learned they're lesson that it was a dumb fad of a game. :D

transience posted...

do this preemptively. what do you get with 95/87?

Doesn't work for two reasons:

1. We don't have stats on the 1987 games, none of them have been in a recent contest
2. Even if we did, 1995's pic has Rayman, Panzer Dragoon, and freaking Full Throttle
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fair enough. what about 96/00?
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Reused pics can doom 1995.

I can't see 87 really being able to take advantage of 95 lacking any depth, but if we don't get Earthbound/SMW2/DKC2 in there by round 3, you might as well call it for 2011.
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2000 with 56%

I'm starting to think 2000 can really threaten 1997.
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Apparently I'm one of the few that would take 2015 over 2013. It's close though.

the thing I'm waiting to see with 2000 and 2001 is if the lack of a clear top 10 game will crush its chances. depth is nice and all, but when it comes to a year with depth AND a killer at the top, can it hang? even if your depth is better?
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Is that regardless of what pictures it draws? If it gets reused pics it won't have G/S/C/D2, I think G/S/C would help a ton in cancelling out a lot of the nintendo in the Mario games

Which side note forget what i said above, I thought 15 was winning LOL what I get for posting when I wake up, but could almost be the same sentence for 05, maybe 05 has a chance against 03 now
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Reused pics can doom 1995.

1995/1987 is a interesting test case to see if a ton of low-level depth can overcome one strong anchor with little supporting cast. That's what we're dealing with here. 1987 has a lot of depth for a 1980s year, but all of those games would not get any higher than 25% on Chrono Trigger.
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transience posted...

fair enough. what about 96/00?

Super Mario 64 - 40.255
Super Mario RPG - 32.8256
Resident Evil - 24.95938966
Crash Bandicoot - X

Majora's Mask - 36.846
Final Fantasy IX - 31.7768
Perfect Dark - 19.48054359
Deus Ex - 17.10385588

1996 wins on pure strength alone. I think 2000 is banking on SM64 and SMRPG splitting the vote. 2000 has a more broad appeal.

I think Crash Bandicoot would be bad fodder though. Probably worse than Deus Ex.

EDIT: If voters realize that 2000 has GSC, it wins pretty easily I think. Damn you Perfect Dark!
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1995 was doomed to begin with. It will take a lot more than Chrono Trigger + fodder to beat a landmark year like 87, especially with BotW being a big shot in the arm for the Zelda franchise that has been disapointing for the last 15 years.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

2000 with 56%

I'm starting to think 2000 can really threaten 1997.

There's a 1996 in the way!

Don't think that match is a given.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

It will take a lot more than Chrono Trigger + fodder to beat a landmark year like 87

you mean a year that's Zelda 1 + fodder?
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let's do them at their best

Mario 64
Mario RPG
Resident Evil
uhhhh what else is there

Final Fantasy IX
Majora's Mask
Pokemon GSC
Diablo 2
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transience posted...

the thing I'm waiting to see with 2000 and 2001 is if the lack of a clear top 10 game will crush its chances. depth is nice and all, but when it comes to a year with depth AND a killer at the top, can it hang? even if your depth is better?

Majora is a nice anchor strength wise, but I think the fact that the year is comprised of less-popular sequels to stuff from earlier in the generation may hurt it against other years of the 32/64 bit generations.
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If the Round 1 pics are used for Round 2, this is bad for 2000 which is missing out on Pokemon GSC.
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