Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1274

(+) Yeah! (+)

At this stage in the contest I think everyone should just concentrate on trying to either push or kill SBAllens bracket.

Which side are you on?

Is he a heel or face damnit!?!
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Yesterday's X-Stats:

1994 – 50.00%
1991 – 46.62%
2002 – 42.04%
2004 – 41.31%
2011 – 37.98%
2006 – 34.29%
2010 – 24.91%
1981 – 17.63%
1988 – 11.62%

Looks like the 1991/2002 and 1994/2004 results would've nearly perfectly predicted 1991/1994!

10-minute X-Stats:

1998 – 50.00%
1992 – 27.15%
2003 – 19.78%
2005 – 16.75%
2013 – 16.60%
1993 – 14.70%
2016 – 13.96%
2015 – 13.72%
1978 – 4.85%
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I just managed to get myself on the leaderboard today, but I won't be staying there for too long until getting 1997/2001 wrong.
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Updated Top 10

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. 1996 – 51.38% vs. 2000 – 48.62% - Round 2 – 2.76%
2. 2001 – 52.11% vs. 1995 – 47.89% - Round 3 – 4.22%
3. 1995 – 52.39% vs. 1987 – 47.61% - Round 2 – 4.78%
4. 1994 – 53.38% vs. 1991 – 46.62% - Round 3 – 6.76%
5. 2011 – 54.86% vs. 2006 – 45.14% - Round 1 – 9.72%
6. 1991 – 54.87% vs. 2002 – 45.13% - Round 2 – 9.74%
7. 2003 – 57.67% vs. 2005 – 42.33% - Round 2 – 15.34%
8. 2003 – 58.03% vs. 2013 – 41.97% - Round 1 – 16.06%
9. 1994 – 58.69% vs. 2004 – 41.31% - Round 1 – 17.38%
10. 2005 – 59.02% vs. 2015 – 40.98% - Round 1 – 18.04%

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps
1. 1996 – 7880 vs. 2000 – 7465 – Round 2 – 424
2. 1995 – 8668 vs. 1987 – 7878 – Round 2 – 790
3. 2001 – 10156 vs. 1995 – 9333 – Round 3 – 823
4. 1994 – 9839 vs. 1991 – 8591 – Round 3 – 1247
5. 1991 – 8664 vs. 2002 – 7125 – Round 2 – 1539
6. 2011 – 9262 vs. 2006 – 7622 – Round 1 – 1640
7. 2003 – 9305 vs. 2005 – 6830 – Round 2 – 2475
8. 2003 – 9711 vs. 2013 – 7024 – Round 1 – 2687
9. 2005 – 9799 vs. 2015 – 6803 – Round 1 – 2996
10. 1994 – 10236 vs. 2004 – 7205 – Round 1 – 3031

Top 10 Most Popular Polls
1. 2001 vs. 1995 – Round 3 – 19489
2. 1997 vs. 1996 – Round 3 – 19363
3. 1994 vs. 1991 – Round 3 – 18429
4. 1994 vs. 2004 – Round 1 – 17441
5. 1998 vs. 1993 – Round 1 – 17249
6. 2002 vs. 2010 – Round 1 – 17086
7. 1991 vs. 1988 – Round 1 – 16964
8. 2011 vs. 2006 – Round 1 – 16884
9. 1992 vs. 2016 – Round 1 – 16879
10. 1987 vs. 1985 – Round 1 – 16868

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners
1. 1996 – Round 2 – 7880
2. 1991 – Round 2 – 8664
3. 1995 – Round 2 – 8668
4. 2011 – Round 1 – 9262
5. 2003 – Round 2 – 9305
6. 2003 – Round 1 – 9711
7. 2005 – Round 1 – 9799
8. 1994 – Round 2 – 9809
9. 1994 – Round 3 – 9839
10. 2001 – Round 3 – 10156

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers
1. 1995 – Round 3 – 9333
2. 1991 – Round 3 – 8591
3. 1987 – Round 2 – 7878
4. 2006 – Round 1 – 7622
5. 2000 – Round 2 – 7456
6. 2004 – Round 1 – 7205
7. 2002 – Round 2 – 7125
8. 2013 – Round 1 – 7024
9. 2005 – Round 2 – 6830
10. 2015 – Round 1 – 6803

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. 1994 vs. 1991 – Round 3 – 19.84%
2. 2003 vs. 2005 – Round 2 – 27.77%
3. 1994 vs. 2011 – Round 2 – 35.74%
4. 2001 vs. 1995 – Round 3 – 36.25%
5. 2005 vs. 2015 – Round 1 – 40.10%
6. 1996 vs. 2000 – Round 2 – 46.81%
7. 1994 vs. 2004 – Round 1 – 49.15%
8. 1997 vs. 1996 – Round 3 – 49.41%
9. 2003 vs. 2013 – Round 1 – 50.17%
10. 1991 vs. 2002 – Round 2 – 52.24%
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1998 under 80%

another fraudulent performance

1997's got this
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LeonhartFour posted...

1998 under 80%

another fraudulent performance

1997's got this

If it does its a SBALLEN victory!
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Yesterday's chart:

Time | 1991 | 1994 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 51.82% | 48.18% | 303 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 47.05% | 52.95% | 1881 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 46.60% | 53.40% | 3749 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 47.35% | 52.65% | 2589 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 47.08% | 52.92% | 4692 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 46.03% | 53.97% | 4588 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 44.30% | 55.70% | 930 | (22:00-24:00)
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Lack of KotOR likely hurts quite a bit. WW and RS are supposed to be anchors but they just fold against OoT and RB.
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I'm surprised to see 02 over 04. still thinking 91 overperformed a smidge!
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leaderboard get

go 2001!

yeah!
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1998 back over 80%

going to dominate everything

transience posted...

I'm surprised to see 02 over 04. still thinking 91 overperformed a smidge!

Eh, it's probably by a negligible amount if it did. 2002/2004 would probably be pretty close. 1991 and 1994 weren't as strong as many of us thought, and 1994 is in for a world of hurt next round.
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I'd take 2002 over 2004 in a close match, especially if 2002 has Metroid Prime/Kingdom Hearts as their 1-2 picture while 2004 had World of Warcraft/Half-Life 2.
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I think 94 might do all right. its floor is 92 and it might do a good bit better. at least FF6 and Super Metroid stand on their own as opposed to the others. 94 being #3 in the xstats wouldn't surprise me THAT much.
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I'm back on the leaderboard? Wut?

Fuck you, 1987.
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oh, and 04 with 8 pics would look real nice.

Half-Life 2
MGS3
San Andreas
Metroid Prime 2
Halo 2
World of Warcraft
Paper Mario 2
Tales of Symphonia
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'94 will probably outdo '92, but I think 2001 probably finishes 3rd in the final stats.
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I'd ask what you were thinking for 97/01 but that's for the Crew tonight/tomorrow!
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Weird. 1998 starting showing some (ever-so-slight) weakness, but then caught fire two updates in a row with over 86%.
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If finishing under 80% is considered weakness, perhaps out expectations for 1998 are dialed in a little high. 2003 isn't a fodder NES year. It has actual games.
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transience posted...

I'd ask what you were thinking for 97/01 but that's for the Crew tonight/tomorrow!

Well, I think there will be plenty of space for 2001 to land in front of 1994 because I'm thinking more and more that '97 will at least do well on '98, even if it never seriously contends for victory.
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LeonhartFour posted...

1998 under 80%

another fraudulent performance

1997's got this

The only thing 97 has got is escaping the humiliation of the biggest final beat down between a zelda/FF showdown.
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yeah, I go back and forth on that. 97 might break 40% or even 45% -- but it could also get 70-30'd like everything else.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

If finishing under 80% is considered weakness, perhaps out expectations for 1998 are dialed in a little high. 2003 isn't a fodder NES year. It has actual games.

Actual games that would get SFF'd hard by their 1998 counterparts.

(also I'm not being completely serious about that)

key word being "completely"
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transience posted...

yeah, I go back and forth on that. 97 might break 40% or even 45% -- but it could also get 70-30'd like everything else.

40 sounds about right. At best though

97 had a ton of good n64 games which has made it look great so far. 98 willnjust negste that. I'd be amazed if 97 gets anything higher than 40. If it does then we need a OoT ffvii bonus poll again. Or a mini 4 game contest with OoT ff7 Pokemon red and smash bros melee
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every contest I try to talk myself into believing Zelda will lose

2003 and 2004 spoiled me
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Over 2000 votes at the end of the first hour today

we might actually hit 20,000 total votes

what a contest
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Where's Hochi? We need more discussion about FFVII > OOT.
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SFF matches tend to have lower vote totals. I wonder if this match somehow isn't SFF and 1998 is just performing a straight up beat down.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

SFF matches tend to have lower vote totals. I wonder if this match somehow isn't SFF and 1998 is just performing a straight up beat down.

Yesterday's match got about 1000 votes less than the first 2 matches from this round. While I don't think there was any SFF in 1991/1994, both years strongly draw from the SNES and would have a ton of fanbase overlap.

1998/2003 isn't really in the same situation, as I count 3 Nintendo games on both sides.
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What the ****? Just 19% predicted 1994 to get to the semis? What is this?

Also a bit nervous about 97 vs 01. 2001 is clearly the better year just not in gamefaqs contest strength. 97's my bracket pic and it winning would guarantee a leaderboard finish but at the same time 2001 is just the better year and hard to root against.
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LeonhartFour posted...

every contest I try to talk myself into believing Zelda will lose

2003 and 2004 spoiled me

How did 2004 spoil you? Link won.

Axl_Rose_85 posted...

What the ****? Just 19% predicted 1994 to get to the semis? What is this?

Also a bit nervous about 97 vs 01. 2001 is clearly the better year just not in gamefaqs contest strength. 97's my bracket pic and it winning would guarantee a leaderboard finish but at the same time 2001 is just the better year and hard to root against.

1991 sucked up a lot of pickers. Many probably picked 20XX years too out of underestimating the 90's.

Axl_Rose_85 posted...

What the ****? Just 19% predicted 1994 to get to the semis? What is this?

1994 faced off against 2004 in round 1 and then 2011 in round 2. Both 2004 and 2011 appealed very strongly to casual bracket makers (compared to the Gurus). By the time 1994 could make it to round 3, it would have very little support among the casuals. So that explains the extremely low prediction percentage.
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Aww yeah, finally on the board!

Also SBAllen in 10th means he got at least one of the pic controversy matches right... was it rigged all along...!?
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I declare shenanigans... I picked '97 to win it all on the basis that Final Fantasy Tactics was actually released that year, but now I see they've based it off its NA release. We all know that was the one true tide turner, thus contest is riggedeth.

So annoyed I went with 01 over 97 it seems stupid in retrospect
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I think this is the second worst beating =in a quarterfinal match ever. From what I recall, only Zelda > Metroid 2006 was worse.

I have 2001 over 1997 in my bracket...

STEROLIZER posted...

Has @SBAllen ever been this close to winning a contest?

I won a contest once!

https://www.gamefaqs.com/features/c0111
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I'm much less confident than I was precontest, but I think 2001 still has a chance here.
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https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6715-best-year-in-gaming-quarterfinal-1997-vs-1996
https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6707-best-year-in-gaming-round-2-day-1-2001-vs-2008

I think 2001 has a chance but it's pretty grim.
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1997>2001
1998>1994
1998>1997
This is what I have in my bracket and it's pretty obvious
97 IS strong enough to beat 2001 but it's not strong enough to beat 98
It got what, FFVII MK64 SF64 and SotN?
It can't scratch the combo of Pokemon RB and OoT duo
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This means Allen is gonna have a beast pic for 2001

Is that Madden 98 for 1997 I see?
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@SBAllen, you didn't choose 1997, the year that put GameFaqs on the map due to the FFVII walkthroughs?

For Shame!
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STEROLIZER posted...

@SBAllen, you didn't choose 1997, the year that put GameFaqs on the map due to the FFVII walkthroughs?

For Shame!

Or 1995, the year GameFAQs was founded. I even sent out a GameFAQs match picture!
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Getting my popcorn ready.
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STEROLIZER posted...

@SBAllen, you didn't choose 1997, the year that put GameFaqs on the map due to the FFVII walkthroughs?

For Shame!

Gfaqs wasn't really relevant until the message boards came about in 99.
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creativename posted...

How did 2004 spoil you? Link won.

Spring contest where the GOAT prevailed over OoT!
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With 1997 having its arguably best picture order would 2001 have a chance with this picture order?

FFX/SSBM
MGS2/Paper Mario
GTA3/Halo
Silent Hill 2/LoZ: Oracle of Ages/Seasons

Here is what 1997 had

FFVII/Castlevania: SotN
Mario Kart 64/GoldenEye
Star Fox 64/Fallout
Turok/PaRappa the Rapper


Of course we'll need a MGS2 picture.
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@charmander6000 Paper Mario was released in 2000, the pic screwed year.
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NaberiusBuster posted...

@charmander6000 Paper Mario was released in 2000, the pic screwed year.

gamefaqs goes by North American release dates.
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charmander6000 posted...

With 1997 having its arguably best picture order would 2001 have a chance with this picture order?

FFX/SSBM
MGS2/Paper Mario
GTA3/Halo
Silent Hill 2/LoZ: Oracle of Ages/Seasons

Here is what 1997 had

FFVII/Castlevania: SotN
Mario Kart 64/GoldenEye
Star Fox 64/Fallout
Turok/PaRappa the Rapper


Of course we'll need a MGS2 picture.

2001 wins every one of those matchups except the first one.
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