Board 8 > Survivor HHH Discussion Topic 3: Survivor Series

(+) Yeah! (+)

So, merge episode. Go team?
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Bad Inviso, sniping topics from me, and with a worse title.
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Underleveled posted...

Bad Inviso, sniping topics from me, and with a worse title.

If the season is Survivor: HHH, I HAVE to try for wrestling-themed titles.
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Chrissy still got this.

With Jess not on the jury, were likely getting an 8-person jury.

What if we have our first tie, with third place breaking said tie? After Probst explained the tie last season Im really starting to wonder...
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Im torn between Chrissy and Ben. Chrissy didnt have a great edit most of this episide, but she did end up being on the right side of things in the end, so that does redeem some of the confessionals she had.
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I saw the "Queen Bee" going since she made that comment - it was a predictable, boring Tribal with a blah result. Chrissy has too many storylines still in play. There's also no way Ben would vote her out. Once I heard the target was Chrissy, I knew one of the Healers was done. When Chrissy said that Jessica wouldn't have an idol, they made it obvious. The editors dropped the ball there and should have not shown Jessica's name mentioned at all, maximizing the blindside effect.

The problem with Jessica's strategy is pretty simple: She decided herself who the last two votes would be with no input from Ben or Lauren. She made it VERY clear to the two of them that they were on the bottom and that it would be "Healers strong" going forward. She should have told Ben and Lauren to pick one person apiece. Instead, she made it clear she just wanted to use them for Healer majority.

While I am usually fond of Lovers Arcana girls like Jessica (as you guys know), she wasn't doing that much for me. Yeah, she's cute and seems like a nice girl, but she was too into a meatball like Cole to be a strategically savvy player. Her blind loyalty to Cole was her undoing, as was predictable. She was chosen as the "safest target" - and that gives me blog ideas. Which idea do I do here?
1. Analyze merge boots and how the convergence of tribes both old and older impacts a first vote. This was my pre-planned concept and what I'm still leaning toward.
2. How the "safest vote" has evolved since the Edgardo blindside in Fiji. Jessica strikes me as a far more "traditional" safe vote to dodge an idol, akin to Natalie White - the type that led Savaii to think Uplou would target Whitney. I could compare and contrast how things unfolded afterward depending on their choice of target, but... I don't think that's a really workable idea.

What say you guys?
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I've never seen analysis of the "safest vote" and I find that the most interesting.

Also, can we talk about how unusual it is for Ashley to have made jury? Usually the sour, argumentative, vaguely threatening women go out pre-merge (recent examples being both Lindseys, Peih-Gee, Monica, Liz)
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Squirrelgate posted...

I've never seen analysis of the "safest vote" and I find that the most interesting.

Also, can we talk about how unusual it is for Ashley to have made jury? Usually the sour, argumentative, vaguely threatening women go out pre-merge (recent examples being both Lindseys, Peih-Gee, Monica, Liz)

It really is amazing that she's lasted this long. She's like, a quintessential post-swap boot. Yet here she is.
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she's underrated for that reason!

My ranking of who's left:

Lauren
Ashley
Ben
-
Cole
Mike
Desi
Chrissy
JP
Devon
-
Joe
Ryan
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No issue with Jess going. Kinda thought it was Chrissy actually, given how much airtime the Healers got. I felt like the Healers were the protagonists somehow. JP/Ashley had nothing, Ryan was actually not shown that much, and Devon was there but mostly early. Same with Chrissy until she hatched the plan to take out Jessica.

Meanwhile I felt like I knew Mike, Cole, Joe, Jess, and Lauren's thoughts, as well as Ben. Felt like that was the direction it was going--Healers majority. Glad it didn't go that way.
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Loved loved loved the episode, best one this season, just over the alan boot
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It appears I'm alone in liking Joe.
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eaedwards6400 posted...

It appears I'm alone in liking Joe.

I'm okay with Joe sometimes and not okay with him sometimes.
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I loved Joe tonight
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Joe is a decent villain for this season. I think he's trying a little too hard to be Tony but I still like him.
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oh wow, Jeff actually recorded a little video for last nights live Know-it-Alls

https://twitter.com/robhasapodcast/status/928445176963624960

rob has finally hit the big time
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I think the worst part about Joe is that I don't think he's trying to be Tony. It is just turning out that way in the edit.
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This season definitely has a lot of returnee potential. Ali, Chrissy, Cole, Jessica, Joe, Mike, and Ryan are all people that I could easily see returning someday, and depending on how the rest of the season goes I could see Ben or Lauren getting added to that lost as well.
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You can add Alan to that list, considering Probst thinks he'd be perfect for a Second Chance type season.
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I was thinking Alan but thought he went out just a tad too early. But if Jeff says so then it's definitely a possibility.
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catching up on the season today. I will probably be able to actually comment on the season by next episode, so I apologize in advance for that.
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How much have you seen cyclo
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just saw the alan boot ep
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Underleveled posted...

I was thinking Alan but thought he went out just a tad too early. But if Jeff says so then it's definitely a possibility.

It should be pointed out that Alan went out at the same time Wentworth did, and earlier than Brad did on a technicality. Plus, having Francesca back at all means pretty much any placing is fair game.

But Alan didn't do it for Monica!
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Just stopping in to say booooooo last episode booooooo

Talk about Second Chances 2 made me quickly throw together this ballot. I left off anyone who was on the original ballot but didn't get voted on (but did allow people who were in talks for the ballot but didn't make the final cut) as well as anybody who is still playing this season even if I think they have 0 shot to win.

And just for shits and giggles I have highlighted the 20 people that I think would get voted on if this were the ballot.

MEN:
Alan Ball
Andria "Dreamz" Herd
Brendan Synnott
David Wright
Greg Buis
Hayden Moss
Ian Rosenberger
Jay Starrett
John Cody
Jon Misch
Ken Hoang
Marty Piombo
Rafe Judkins
Reynold Toepfer
Robb Zbacnik
Sean Rector

WOMEN:
Ali Elliott
Anna Khait
Ashley Underwood
Baylor Wilson
Chelsea Meissner
Cydney Gillon
Erinn Lobdell
Hannah Shapiro
Holly Hoffman
Jessica "Figgy" Figueroa
Jessica Johnston
Laura Alexander
Lisa Whelchel
Misty Giles
Natalie Bolton
Twila Tanner
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So I don't think Lisa Whelchel would do it. Laura Alexander I think works for CBS now and won't be eligible to play again.
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I'm guessing John Cody and Reynold would get voted in over Marty and Sean Rector
Figgy over Erinn. I want to say Anna over some, but I don't know who (Holly or Natalie, probably)
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we need Gina on the ballot
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eaedwards6400 posted...

So I don't think Lisa Whelchel would do it. Laura Alexander I think works for CBS now and won't be eligible to play again.

Yeah, I agree on Whelchel. I'll look into that on Laura. All I know is that she's a recent law grad.

Ian said no to Cambodia, but I think that was work-related.

Hayden is a prior winner, which is why he didn't get on the final ballot for Cambodia.

Robb Z? Really? That was an unpopular season and he wasn't a good player. I highly doubt he has cared about the show since he was on.

As robbed of her potential as Misty was, she was still a very early boot in a season a long time ago. The only reason we got Kimmi and Varner was because they were from the most-watched season of the show. I would think they'd want to try and get someone from Outback on there (the season, not the Steakhouse). The only choices are Keith, Nick Brown, Mitchell Olson, and paying Elisabeth Hasselbeck a lot of money and/or working miracles on her. Rodger is probably too old by now and won't be considered unless he's in the insane shape Joe del Campo is.

Just throwing thoughts out there.
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I decided to simulate the season I picked on BrantSteele and this is what I got...

20th - Ian
19th - Jay
18th - Cydney
17th - Alan
16th - Baylor
15th - Lisa
14th - Marty
13th - Jon
12th - Hannah
11th - Ali
10th - Ken
9th - Hayden
8th - Natalie
7th - Jessica
6th - Erinn
5th - Greg
4th - David
Co-2nd - Holly (Jury votes from David and Hayden)
Co-2nd - Sean (Jury votes from Erinn and Ali)
1st - Chelsea (Jury votes from Greg, Jessica, Natalie, Ken, Hannah, and Jon)
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Underleveled posted...

1st - Chelsea (Jury votes from Greg, Jessica, Natalie, Ken, Hannah, and Jon)

Returning players tend to play more like the winner of their season. I can believe this as nobody knew Kim's game as well as Chelsea... and Chelsea threw the FTC anyway because she knew she wasn't winning and thus didn't want to take votes away from Kim. (or so she said, but I find that very believable given how she insisted on standing up for her opening statement)

Underleveled posted...

4th - David

Poor David. Fourth again...
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I can't see Chelsea playing that well but if she would she would really prove that Kim was an awesome winner.
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Don't purge
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you do you booboo
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My question was on the voicemail show for rhap
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eaedwards6400 posted...

My question was on the voicemail show for rhap

That's always an awesome feeling! I've had mine featured once or twice. I particularly remember the one I got on the show where I half-jokingly asked Andrea on a date before asking actual questions, xD
(and by half-jokingly, I mean I was serious that I'd go out with her, but I knew I'd never get a yes so there was really no point in asking)

I'll see what yours is about when I listen tomorrow. Since I listen at work, I only get to do one a day. Also, since my work doesn't allow access to the site, I have to download them at home over Wi-Fi or stream them with cell data. But since I don't want data overages, I avoid streaming them for the most part, but if the guest is worth it, I don't care. Andrea is one of those. No regrets there.
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I was Mike from Pittsburgh with the tinfoil hat on. I waa trying to be funnier than I came off though.
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Yeah I've gotten a text question on before.
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oh shit todd is gonna be on the thursday podcast

excited
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Peridiam posted...

oh shit todd is gonna be on the thursday podcast

woah

Never thought I'd see that happening! Glad Todd is well enough to do a podcast. Great news!
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That was my immediate reaction too.
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Survivor day!

Another video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teMgnErAF6A
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^Can't watch at work. Will try to at home. You've been killing it so far.

I also keep seeing people "surprised" at Jessica not being on the jury. I don't get how anyone could be surprised. They haven't started jury at an even number of players in the last five years. Jeff did not say she was on the jury. There was no Ponderosa video. Why are people surprised by the obvious?

Am I surprised that Jessica herself did not make the jury phase? Yes. Am I surprised that the merge boot isn't on the jury? Not one iota.

Also, new blog is finally posted:
http://insidesurvivor.com/historical-perspectives-a-convergence-of-idol-paranoia-30574
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Weve had three times in the past 11 years where the merge boot didnt make the jury. I dont think its that absurd for people to expect the merge boot to be on the jury.
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Thanks Andy.

And yeah, I think it's reasonable to expect the merge boot to make the jury.
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The last time 12th place made the jury in an 18 person season was One World. After that it's been a jury of 8 and a final 3 in 18-person seasons, except Cagayan which was a jury of 9 and a final 2 (meaning the jury still started at 11)
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eaedwards6400 posted...

I was Mike from Pittsburgh with the tinfoil hat on. I waa trying to be funnier than I came off though.

Listened to most of that podcast (they lost me when the subject changed from Survivor to Game of Thrones). You had a good question and that's what matters.

I believe they've had a fake challenge before to punk people. Trying to think of when that was. I don't keep track of those things since they don't really matter in the grand scheme of things. I don't think that challenge is actually going to happen - from what little I gathered of it, there didn't seem to be any logical flow to it.

I know in Cambodia, Spencer mentioned a "challenge" when there wasn't even one set up at the 2-to-3 swap. He had to have been fed that by production, because Spencer is going to smell a swap in that situation, being a nerdy superfan and all. Makes me wonder if they knew they were going into a merge.
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Underleveled posted...

The last time 12th place made the jury in an 18 person season was One World. After that it's been a jury of 8 and a final 3 in 18-person seasons, except Cagayan which was a jury of 9 and a final 2 (meaning the jury still started at 11)

And this is why I don't get why people are surprised. Twelfth place has not been on the jury in an 18-person season in the last five years. The times they merged at 11 were probably supposed to merge at 12 - Dana's illness in Philippines, Hairdresser Lindsey the First ragequitting in Cagayan, and BMC getting the Medevac in Kaoh Rong changed the plans to accommodate the numbers. Whoever was voted out in 12th in SJDS wasn't going to be jury regardless. Quits McGee doing her thing didn't change the plan.

They haven't started jury at an even number in years. Zero times out of ten would Jessica have made the jury. I highly doubt they'll ever return to a jury of 9 with a final 3. It makes more sense to start at the magic number of 11, where a jury of 9 and a final 2 and a jury of 8 with a final 3 are both possible. With jury starting at 12, there's no chance of a final 2. They know that now. I would LOVE for there to be an F2 this season, but I doubt it (twist spoilers) given the way the F4 works this season.

Using the precedent set by the "Big Moves" era... I don't see why people thought Jessica was on the jury. Are they really holding into a presumption from the Dark Age?
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