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transience 12/12/17 8:21:41 PM #351: |
the exit poll data is real messy. there's like five good signs for each candidate in them.
I do think it's probably going to be pretty close though. --- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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pxlated 12/12/17 8:23:41 PM #352: |
Lord buckethead takes it in an out of nowhere upset
--- [various robot sounds] ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Panthera 12/12/17 8:27:37 PM #353: |
After multiple recounts it will end up being a tie
... What exactly would happen if a race like this did end up as a tie? I'd say I don't know how the American system would handle it but then, I don't know how the Canadian system would either --- We clasped our hands, our hands in praise of a conquerors right to tyranny ... Copied to Clipboard!
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redrocket_pub 12/12/17 8:30:44 PM #354: |
Trial by combat.
--- Blasting off ... Copied to Clipboard!
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xp1337 12/12/17 8:31:36 PM #355: |
Panthera posted...
What exactly would happen if a race like this did end up as a tie? I think it depends on the location. I know some places actually do break ties by flipping a coin. But that might only be for local races. Not sure about something like this. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Nelson_Mandela 12/12/17 8:32:30 PM #356: |
Go Jones!
--- "Seph's kind of right."~ Jakyl25 "Sephy's point is right."~ Inviso ... Copied to Clipboard!
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HaRRicH 12/12/17 8:33:27 PM #357: |
charmander6000 posted...
Exit polls show Moore winning 56-37 among voters who decided in the last few days perhaps a sign of the GOP base coming home to him. If so, this lines up with how Donald had a similar break in his final stretch. Except that's not the whole picture. Some of the polls were wrong to a degree, yes, but there was also something at work in the final days of the election: People who decided late broke strongly for Donald Trump in the states that mattered, according to exit polls. And without this apparent late surge, Hillary Clinton would be our president-elect not Trump. In fact, if you look at the four closest states where Clinton lost or, in the case of Michigan, where she's expected to lose exit polls show late-deciding voters in each of them went strongly for Trump in the final days. In Florida and Pennsylvania, late-deciders favored Trump by 17 points. In Michigan, they went for Trump by 11 points. In Wisconsin, they broke for Trump by a whopping 29 points, 59-30. https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/17/how-america-decided-at-the-very-last-moment-to-elect-donald-trump/ --- Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 12/12/17 8:33:41 PM #358: |
Panthera posted...
After multiple recounts it will end up being a tie In Canada it depends on where it happens. It could range from holding another byelection to flipping a coin. --- Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 12/12/17 8:34:22 PM #359: |
Nelson_Mandela posted...
Go Jones! I assumed youd be more along the lines of hoping Moore wins, gets booted by Mitch and the gang, and replaced by a more establishment Republican --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvGKDK2WIAAmKTf?format=jpg&name=large ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Shaduln 12/12/17 8:34:27 PM #360: |
Um, 538?
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/152881524700610560/390315248529309696/unknown.png --- Emperor of Board 8 That's why I choose not to blame myself for their actions. All I did was untie the knot. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Ashethan 12/12/17 8:34:50 PM #361: |
Moore is going to win. Most Republicans have had enough time to convince themselves that all 8 accusers are lying, and it's a conspiracy.
--- Growing up, I wish some teacher told me "You probably won't ever need this, but if you don't learn it, you might miss out on something really cool." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Nelson_Mandela 12/12/17 8:35:33 PM #362: |
Jakyl25 posted...
Nelson_Mandela posted...Go Jones! After Trump decided to weigh in, I don't really see that as a realistic possibility. Would much rather have Jones win and potentially teach a lesson to voters. --- "Seph's kind of right."~ Jakyl25 "Sephy's point is right."~ Inviso ... Copied to Clipboard!
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redrocket_pub 12/12/17 8:35:52 PM #363: |
What is a byelection?
--- Blasting off ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 12/12/17 8:41:44 PM #364: |
redrocket_pub posted...
What is a byelection? What do Americans call the election going on in Alabama right now? --- Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru ... Copied to Clipboard!
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THEDavyJones 12/12/17 8:41:50 PM #365: |
Some very early, very tentative good news for Jones: He received 31 percent of the vote in one Cullman County precinct. This is important because Hillary Clinton failed to receive more than 15 percent of the vote in any Cullman County precinct in 2016, save for one majority-black precinct thats heavily Democratic. Coupled together with other rural precincts, Jones is holding his own in at least a few deep-red places.
That could be a good sign. Run the score up in majorly democratic precincts and don't get killed in the deep red ones. --- TheRock ~ This rage is not your destiny, it's holding you down. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 12/12/17 8:41:57 PM #366: |
538 guys seem to be reading things (tentatively) as good for Jones
--- Congrats to BKSheikah for winning the BYIG Guru Challenge! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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xp1337 12/12/17 8:43:07 PM #367: |
charmander6000 posted...
redrocket_pub posted...What is a byelection? Special Election. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transience 12/12/17 8:43:10 PM #368: |
it's so early. I think what you can say is that it's not bad for Jones, which was the fear.
--- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 12/12/17 8:43:26 PM #369: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
538 guys seem to be reading things (tentatively) as good for Jones Shaduln posted...
Tentatively --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvGKDK2WIAAmKTf?format=jpg&name=large ... Copied to Clipboard!
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THEDavyJones 12/12/17 8:43:36 PM #370: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
538 guys seem to be reading things (tentatively) as good for Jones That's who I'm following. --- TheRock ~ This rage is not your destiny, it's holding you down. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 12/12/17 8:45:25 PM #371: |
Nelson_Mandela posted...
After Trump decided to weigh in, I don't really see that as a realistic possibility You think its been established that GOP officials need to stay in line with Trump to stay in office? --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvGKDK2WIAAmKTf?format=jpg&name=large ... Copied to Clipboard!
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THEDavyJones 12/12/17 8:46:44 PM #372: |
If you want an example of Moore underperforming, look to Limestone. We now have half the vote in there. Moore is up by 17 percentage points. Hed want a margin closer to 20-22 percent, based on the benchmarks.
Basically, I think Moore is underperforming just enough to put this into the proper toss-up category. --- TheRock ~ This rage is not your destiny, it's holding you down. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red13n 12/12/17 8:47:00 PM #373: |
I'm assuming the exit poll date is messed up by people being unwilling to admit support for Moore. I still expect him to win.
--- "First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 12/12/17 8:48:53 PM #374: |
THEDavyJones posted...
If you want an example of Moore underperforming, look to Limestone. We now have half the vote in there. Moore is up by 17 percentage points. Hed want a margin closer to 20-22 percent, based on the benchmarks. Yeah, doing a comparison with Trump/Clinton, Moore isn't winning by more than a couple percent points based on early results. --- Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 12/12/17 8:49:38 PM #375: |
xp1337 posted...
charmander6000 posted...redrocket_pub posted...What is a byelection? I see, we call that a byelection. --- Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transience 12/12/17 8:50:01 PM #376: |
we need red sox for some Vincent/Crono trends
--- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 12/12/17 8:52:48 PM #377: |
charmander6000 posted...
xp1337 posted...charmander6000 posted...redrocket_pub posted...What is a byelection? Damn so my topic title makes no sense to you guys --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvGKDK2WIAAmKTf?format=jpg&name=large ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Suprak the Stud 12/12/17 8:55:06 PM #378: |
The prediction markets briefly went to dead even between Moore and Jones and I put in another $20 on Moore at that point.
Weeeeeeee not trusting Alabama. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transience 12/12/17 8:55:49 PM #379: |
damn you ASV
--- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 12/12/17 8:56:52 PM #380: |
Moore appears to be doing just enough to hold on right now.
--- Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru ... Copied to Clipboard!
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The Mana Sword 12/12/17 8:57:37 PM #381: |
I know these early returns are somewhat positive for Jones but Ive got a bad feeling I didnt have this morning.
--- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 12/12/17 9:06:27 PM #382: |
Watching the betting market yo-yo so sharply is kinda funny
--- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvGKDK2WIAAmKTf?format=jpg&name=large ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Suprak the Stud 12/12/17 9:08:20 PM #383: |
Jakyl25 posted...
Watching the betting market yo-yo so sharply is kinda funny Next time I know to wait until preliminary results come in. You can probably make a decent amount not really betting on a specific outcome, but taking advantage of the early fluctuations. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 12/12/17 9:14:18 PM #384: |
So it looks like we're heading for Moore +5
--- Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transience 12/12/17 9:15:41 PM #385: |
nyt's tracker seems high on jones
hmm --- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UItimaterializer 12/12/17 9:16:09 PM #386: |
I'm going to put this here on record. Jones is going to easily win this election.
--- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UItimaterializer 12/12/17 9:16:33 PM #387: |
transience posted...
nyt's tracker seems high on jones I'm looking at the same thing, and if you look at what's unreported, Jones wins in a walk. --- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Nelson_Mandela 12/12/17 9:16:39 PM #388: |
Jakyl25 posted...
Nelson_Mandela posted...After Trump decided to weigh in, I don't really see that as a realistic possibility I think there are enough bitches in the Senate to not have the votes for expulsion if Trump says no --- "Seph's kind of right."~ Jakyl25 "Sephy's point is right."~ Inviso ... Copied to Clipboard!
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THEDavyJones 12/12/17 9:17:18 PM #389: |
transience posted...
nyt's tracker seems high on jones NYT was high on Trump, people tried to pass it off as statistical noise and even posted the code behind it, but it ended up being largely right. --- TheRock ~ This rage is not your destiny, it's holding you down. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UItimaterializer 12/12/17 9:18:34 PM #390: |
THEDavyJones posted...
transience posted...nyt's tracker seems high on jones Yep. It was the best tracker in 2016 by a mile, so I trust it. --- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transience 12/12/17 9:20:00 PM #391: |
those NYT upshot dials give me a PTSD flashback to 2016
up to 76% Jones --- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 12/12/17 9:22:43 PM #392: |
Nelson_Mandela posted...
Jakyl25 posted...Nelson_Mandela posted...After Trump decided to weigh in, I don't really see that as a realistic possibility I think we calculated before that theyd only need 19 GOP Senators to do it --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvGKDK2WIAAmKTf?format=jpg&name=large ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 12/12/17 9:22:44 PM #393: |
Jefferson is crazy high for Jones, if he wins it'll be thanks to them.
--- Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru ... Copied to Clipboard!
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DeathChicken 12/12/17 9:22:55 PM #394: |
So this is going to come down to heavy amounts of very obvious fraud that no one does anything about, innit
--- We are thought, and reality, and concept, and the unimaginable ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 12/12/17 9:23:17 PM #395: |
Jones has taken the gambling lead
--- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvGKDK2WIAAmKTf?format=jpg&name=large ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transience 12/12/17 9:25:28 PM #396: |
NYT and 538 agree about there being a turnout problem in heavy GOP counties.
I will not get my hopes up --- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UItimaterializer 12/12/17 9:27:49 PM #397: |
transience posted...
NYT and 538 agree about there being a turnout problem in heavy GOP counties. huh? --- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 12/12/17 9:28:45 PM #398: |
UItimaterializer posted...
transience posted...NYT and 538 agree about there being a turnout problem in heavy GOP counties. It implies Republicans would rather stay at home than vote for Moore or Jones. --- Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru ... Copied to Clipboard!
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gmun-chama 12/12/17 9:29:17 PM #399: |
switches tab back to NYT
... it just shot up to 90% wtf ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Peace___Frog 12/12/17 9:29:21 PM #400: |
DeathChicken posted...
So this is going to come down to heavy amounts of very obvious fraud that no one does anything about, innit HaRRicH posted... 12/12/2017 --- ~Peaf~ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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