Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 154: A Very Special Election

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transience
12/12/17 8:21:41 PM
#351:


the exit poll data is real messy. there's like five good signs for each candidate in them.

I do think it's probably going to be pretty close though.
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pxlated
12/12/17 8:23:41 PM
#352:


Lord buckethead takes it in an out of nowhere upset
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Panthera
12/12/17 8:27:37 PM
#353:


After multiple recounts it will end up being a tie

...

What exactly would happen if a race like this did end up as a tie? I'd say I don't know how the American system would handle it but then, I don't know how the Canadian system would either
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redrocket_pub
12/12/17 8:30:44 PM
#354:


Trial by combat.
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xp1337
12/12/17 8:31:36 PM
#355:


Panthera posted...
What exactly would happen if a race like this did end up as a tie?

I think it depends on the location.

I know some places actually do break ties by flipping a coin. But that might only be for local races. Not sure about something like this.
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Nelson_Mandela
12/12/17 8:32:30 PM
#356:


Go Jones!
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HaRRicH
12/12/17 8:33:27 PM
#357:


charmander6000 posted...
Exit polls show Moore winning 56-37 among voters who decided in the last few days perhaps a sign of the GOP base coming home to him.


If so, this lines up with how Donald had a similar break in his final stretch.

Except that's not the whole picture. Some of the polls were wrong to a degree, yes, but there was also something at work in the final days of the election: People who decided late broke strongly for Donald Trump in the states that mattered, according to exit polls. And without this apparent late surge, Hillary Clinton would be our president-elect not Trump.

In fact, if you look at the four closest states where Clinton lost or, in the case of Michigan, where she's expected to lose exit polls show late-deciding voters in each of them went strongly for Trump in the final days. In Florida and Pennsylvania, late-deciders favored Trump by 17 points. In Michigan, they went for Trump by 11 points. In Wisconsin, they broke for Trump by a whopping 29 points, 59-30.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/17/how-america-decided-at-the-very-last-moment-to-elect-donald-trump/

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charmander6000
12/12/17 8:33:41 PM
#358:


Panthera posted...
After multiple recounts it will end up being a tie

...

What exactly would happen if a race like this did end up as a tie? I'd say I don't know how the American system would handle it but then, I don't know how the Canadian system would either


In Canada it depends on where it happens. It could range from holding another byelection to flipping a coin.
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Jakyl25
12/12/17 8:34:22 PM
#359:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
Go Jones!


I assumed youd be more along the lines of hoping Moore wins, gets booted by Mitch and the gang, and replaced by a more establishment Republican
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Shaduln
12/12/17 8:34:27 PM
#360:


Um, 538?

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/152881524700610560/390315248529309696/unknown.png
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Ashethan
12/12/17 8:34:50 PM
#361:


Moore is going to win. Most Republicans have had enough time to convince themselves that all 8 accusers are lying, and it's a conspiracy.
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Nelson_Mandela
12/12/17 8:35:33 PM
#362:


Jakyl25 posted...
Nelson_Mandela posted...
Go Jones!


I assumed youd be more along the lines of hoping Moore wins, gets booted by Mitch and the gang, and replaced by a more establishment Republican

After Trump decided to weigh in, I don't really see that as a realistic possibility. Would much rather have Jones win and potentially teach a lesson to voters.
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redrocket_pub
12/12/17 8:35:52 PM
#363:


What is a byelection?
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charmander6000
12/12/17 8:41:44 PM
#364:


redrocket_pub posted...
What is a byelection?


What do Americans call the election going on in Alabama right now?
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THEDavyJones
12/12/17 8:41:50 PM
#365:


Some very early, very tentative good news for Jones: He received 31 percent of the vote in one Cullman County precinct. This is important because Hillary Clinton failed to receive more than 15 percent of the vote in any Cullman County precinct in 2016, save for one majority-black precinct thats heavily Democratic. Coupled together with other rural precincts, Jones is holding his own in at least a few deep-red places.

That could be a good sign. Run the score up in majorly democratic precincts and don't get killed in the deep red ones.
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LordoftheMorons
12/12/17 8:41:57 PM
#366:


538 guys seem to be reading things (tentatively) as good for Jones
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xp1337
12/12/17 8:43:07 PM
#367:


charmander6000 posted...
redrocket_pub posted...
What is a byelection?


What do Americans call the election going on in Alabama right now?

Special Election.
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transience
12/12/17 8:43:10 PM
#368:


it's so early. I think what you can say is that it's not bad for Jones, which was the fear.
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xyzzy
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Jakyl25
12/12/17 8:43:26 PM
#369:


LordoftheMorons posted...
538 guys seem to be reading things (tentatively) as good for Jones


Shaduln posted...

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/152881524700610560/390315248529309696/unknown.png


Tentatively
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THEDavyJones
12/12/17 8:43:36 PM
#370:


LordoftheMorons posted...
538 guys seem to be reading things (tentatively) as good for Jones


That's who I'm following.
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Jakyl25
12/12/17 8:45:25 PM
#371:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
After Trump decided to weigh in, I don't really see that as a realistic possibility


You think its been established that GOP officials need to stay in line with Trump to stay in office?
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THEDavyJones
12/12/17 8:46:44 PM
#372:


If you want an example of Moore underperforming, look to Limestone. We now have half the vote in there. Moore is up by 17 percentage points. Hed want a margin closer to 20-22 percent, based on the benchmarks.

Basically, I think Moore is underperforming just enough to put this into the proper toss-up category.
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red13n
12/12/17 8:47:00 PM
#373:


I'm assuming the exit poll date is messed up by people being unwilling to admit support for Moore. I still expect him to win.
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charmander6000
12/12/17 8:48:53 PM
#374:


THEDavyJones posted...
If you want an example of Moore underperforming, look to Limestone. We now have half the vote in there. Moore is up by 17 percentage points. Hed want a margin closer to 20-22 percent, based on the benchmarks.

Basically, I think Moore is underperforming just enough to put this into the proper toss-up category.


Yeah, doing a comparison with Trump/Clinton, Moore isn't winning by more than a couple percent points based on early results.
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charmander6000
12/12/17 8:49:38 PM
#375:


xp1337 posted...
charmander6000 posted...
redrocket_pub posted...
What is a byelection?


What do Americans call the election going on in Alabama right now?

Special Election.


I see, we call that a byelection.
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transience
12/12/17 8:50:01 PM
#376:


we need red sox for some Vincent/Crono trends
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xyzzy
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Jakyl25
12/12/17 8:52:48 PM
#377:


charmander6000 posted...
xp1337 posted...
charmander6000 posted...
redrocket_pub posted...
What is a byelection?


What do Americans call the election going on in Alabama right now?

Special Election.


I see, we call that a byelection.


Damn so my topic title makes no sense to you guys
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Suprak the Stud
12/12/17 8:55:06 PM
#378:


The prediction markets briefly went to dead even between Moore and Jones and I put in another $20 on Moore at that point.

Weeeeeeee not trusting Alabama.
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transience
12/12/17 8:55:49 PM
#379:


damn you ASV
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xyzzy
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charmander6000
12/12/17 8:56:52 PM
#380:


Moore appears to be doing just enough to hold on right now.
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The Mana Sword
12/12/17 8:57:37 PM
#381:


I know these early returns are somewhat positive for Jones but Ive got a bad feeling I didnt have this morning.
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Jakyl25
12/12/17 9:06:27 PM
#382:


Watching the betting market yo-yo so sharply is kinda funny
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Suprak the Stud
12/12/17 9:08:20 PM
#383:


Jakyl25 posted...
Watching the betting market yo-yo so sharply is kinda funny


Next time I know to wait until preliminary results come in. You can probably make a decent amount not really betting on a specific outcome, but taking advantage of the early fluctuations.
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Moops?
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charmander6000
12/12/17 9:14:18 PM
#384:


So it looks like we're heading for Moore +5
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transience
12/12/17 9:15:41 PM
#385:


nyt's tracker seems high on jones

hmm
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xyzzy
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UItimaterializer
12/12/17 9:16:09 PM
#386:


I'm going to put this here on record. Jones is going to easily win this election.
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UItimaterializer
12/12/17 9:16:33 PM
#387:


transience posted...
nyt's tracker seems high on jones

hmm

I'm looking at the same thing, and if you look at what's unreported, Jones wins in a walk.
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Get the X out.
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Nelson_Mandela
12/12/17 9:16:39 PM
#388:


Jakyl25 posted...
Nelson_Mandela posted...
After Trump decided to weigh in, I don't really see that as a realistic possibility


You think its been established that GOP officials need to stay in line with Trump to stay in office?

I think there are enough bitches in the Senate to not have the votes for expulsion if Trump says no
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THEDavyJones
12/12/17 9:17:18 PM
#389:


transience posted...
nyt's tracker seems high on jones

hmm


NYT was high on Trump, people tried to pass it off as statistical noise and even posted the code behind it, but it ended up being largely right.
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UItimaterializer
12/12/17 9:18:34 PM
#390:


THEDavyJones posted...
transience posted...
nyt's tracker seems high on jones

hmm


NYT was high on Trump, people tried to pass it off as statistical noise and even posted the code behind it, but it ended up being largely right.

Yep. It was the best tracker in 2016 by a mile, so I trust it.
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transience
12/12/17 9:20:00 PM
#391:


those NYT upshot dials give me a PTSD flashback to 2016

up to 76% Jones
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xyzzy
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Jakyl25
12/12/17 9:22:43 PM
#392:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
Jakyl25 posted...
Nelson_Mandela posted...
After Trump decided to weigh in, I don't really see that as a realistic possibility


You think its been established that GOP officials need to stay in line with Trump to stay in office?

I think there are enough bitches in the Senate to not have the votes for expulsion if Trump says no


I think we calculated before that theyd only need 19 GOP Senators to do it
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charmander6000
12/12/17 9:22:44 PM
#393:


Jefferson is crazy high for Jones, if he wins it'll be thanks to them.
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DeathChicken
12/12/17 9:22:55 PM
#394:


So this is going to come down to heavy amounts of very obvious fraud that no one does anything about, innit
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Jakyl25
12/12/17 9:23:17 PM
#395:


Jones has taken the gambling lead
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transience
12/12/17 9:25:28 PM
#396:


NYT and 538 agree about there being a turnout problem in heavy GOP counties.

I will not get my hopes up
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xyzzy
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UItimaterializer
12/12/17 9:27:49 PM
#397:


transience posted...
NYT and 538 agree about there being a turnout problem in heavy GOP counties.

I will not get my hopes up

huh?
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charmander6000
12/12/17 9:28:45 PM
#398:


UItimaterializer posted...
transience posted...
NYT and 538 agree about there being a turnout problem in heavy GOP counties.

I will not get my hopes up

huh?


It implies Republicans would rather stay at home than vote for Moore or Jones.
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gmun-chama
12/12/17 9:29:17 PM
#399:


switches tab back to NYT

... it just shot up to 90% wtf
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Peace___Frog
12/12/17 9:29:21 PM
#400:


DeathChicken posted...
So this is going to come down to heavy amounts of very obvious fraud that no one does anything about, innit


HaRRicH posted...
12/12/2017
AL - In final-hour order, court rules that Alabama can destroy digital voting records after all

At 1:36 p.m. Monday, a Montgomery County Circuit Court judge issued an order directing Alabama election officials to preserve all digital ballot images created at polling places across the state today.

But at 4:32 p.m. Monday, attorneys for Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill and Ed Packard, the state administrator of elections, filed an "emergency motion to stay" that order, which the state Supreme Court granted minutes after Merrill and Packard's motion was filed.

By granting the stay, the court effectively told the state that it does not in fact have to preserve the digital ballot images - essentially digitized versions of the paper ballots voters fill out at the voting booth - created today.

The court will hold a hearing on Dec. 21 about whether to dismiss the case outright. By that point the state will have had ample time to destroy the digital ballot images legally under the stay.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/in_final-hour_order_court_rule.html

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