Board 8 > Box Office Topic II: The Return

(+) Yeah! (+)

Last Jedi grossed 21 million bucks on Monday, and it's now up to #121 all-time.
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With 33% of K-12 schools out versus 88% by Friday, expect a weekday uptick on TLJ.
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Jeff Zero posted...

With 33% of K-12 schools out versus 88% by Friday, expect a weekday uptick on TLJ.

Not to mention that with very few major releases in the next few weeks, it could do as much as five weeks at #1.
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scarletspeed7 posted...

Jeff Zero posted...

With 33% of K-12 schools out versus 88% by Friday, expect a weekday uptick on TLJ.

Not to mention that with very few major releases in the next few weeks, it could do as much as five weeks at #1.

What's the movie to stop it?
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

scarletspeed7 posted...

Jeff Zero posted...

With 33% of K-12 schools out versus 88% by Friday, expect a weekday uptick on TLJ.

Not to mention that with very few major releases in the next few weeks, it could do as much as five weeks at #1.

What's the movie to stop it?

I think just sheer attrition from being in theaters for a while.
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Tuesday's gross brought Star Wars' total to $261m, good enough for 97th place all-time! We're in the Top 100 now.
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scarletspeed7 posted...

Tuesday's gross brought Star Wars' total to $261m, good enough for 97th place all-time! We're in the Top 100 now.

How is it pacing with The Force Awakens?
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Pretty far behind. TFA was at 325 mil at this point in its run.
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Yeah, the storyline of this film is whether it lands the #2 spot of all-time or not. Pretty much zero chance it takes #1.
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I'm not sure it even makes #2, its been tracking behind Jurassic World every day except opening day.
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The Mana Sword posted...

I'm not sure it even makes #2, its been tracking behind Jurassic World every day except opening day.

Well, it has many things going for it Jurassic World does not - weak opposing schedule being the main one. And let's not forget that a lot of schools were not out yet on these first few days. But the story is whether it can, not that it for sure will.
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Yeah, that's fair, it's definitely a better time of year to take advantage of. If I was going to make a guess right now I think it'll probably overtake JW, but likely ends up stuck at #4 and won't beat out either Avatar or Titanic (or TFA obviously).

edit: scratch that, for some reason I thought Titantic was a bit higher than 650 mil. Revised prediction is #3 then.
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The more interesting question now will be if JJ Abrams can raise the gross off of this one with the final installment.
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With $16 million dollars added on Wednesday, Episode VIII moved to #89 all-time.
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With another 17.8 million bucks added to its total, Episode VIII has moved to #73 all-time.
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Forbes contributor is doing a despair piece claiming TLJ's legs have already begun collapsing bigly; Deadline and Variety report otherwise
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I mean, Jumanji is underperforming from what a lot of people expected and that's the only competition for the next few weeks; I feel pretty good about Star Wars' chances right now.
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same.
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scarletspeed7 posted...

The Mana Sword posted...

I'm not sure it even makes #2, its been tracking behind Jurassic World every day except opening day.

Well, it has many things going for it Jurassic World does not - weak opposing schedule being the main one. And let's not forget that a lot of schools were not out yet on these first few days. But the story is whether it can, not that it for sure will.

What? Zero chance it passes TFA Avatar or prob Jurassic world. How you getting #2?
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Jeff Zero posted...

Forbes contributor is doing a despair piece claiming TLJ's legs have already begun collapsing bigly; Deadline and Variety report otherwise

They don't differ. Deadline and variety are talking grosses. Forbes is talking percentage drops.
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Corrik posted...

scarletspeed7 posted...

The Mana Sword posted...

I'm not sure it even makes #2, its been tracking behind Jurassic World every day except opening day.

Well, it has many things going for it Jurassic World does not - weak opposing schedule being the main one. And let's not forget that a lot of schools were not out yet on these first few days. But the story is whether it can, not that it for sure will.

What? Zero chance it passes TFA Avatar or prob Jurassic world. How you getting #2?

Are you talking domestic or worldwide? Not really zero chance. It really depends how little people care about January releases.
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scarletspeed7 posted...

Corrik posted...

scarletspeed7 posted...

The Mana Sword posted...

I'm not sure it even makes #2, its been tracking behind Jurassic World every day except opening day.

Well, it has many things going for it Jurassic World does not - weak opposing schedule being the main one. And let's not forget that a lot of schools were not out yet on these first few days. But the story is whether it can, not that it for sure will.

What? Zero chance it passes TFA Avatar or prob Jurassic world. How you getting #2?

Are you talking domestic or worldwide? Not really zero chance. It really depends how little people care about January releases.

I assumed you were talking about worldwide
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Worldwide is boring; I pretty much never pay attention to it.
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This is not a very good topic.

Episode VIII has now moved to #56 all-time with $321m.
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scarletspeed7 posted...

Worldwide is boring; I pretty much never pay attention to it.

Worldwide is the only thing that matters. A movie can be a success in the states and bomb or be a bomb in the States but be a success.
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It isn't the only thing that matters. Profit margins tend to be thinner abroad for domestic releases.
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SaveEstelle posted...

It isn't the only thing that matters. Profit margins tend to be thinner abroad for domestic releases.

They are thinner. But, it doesn't change what I just said above.

Worldwide includes domestic tallies.
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Worldwide is totally uninteresting because it's still a really young market and there is no apples-to-apples comparison from year-to-year yet. Markets are constantly expanding, so every film has a higher potential viewership. Domestic has standard comparisons and can be adjusted for inflation to get an actual number of tickets sold while worldwide cannot.

"Worldwide is the only thing that matters" is kind of an asinine thing, because you just said "the only thing that matters is all of its entire gross." No shit. But domestic is an indicator of actual success through viewership since it can be tracked extremely accurately, while worldwide never will be. For people that like consistent scores and indicators, domestic is where the fun is to be had.

Since I'm not a studio executive, I really could give two shits about the untrackable stuff that makes up half of my paycheck. Maybe when markets have existed consistently for more than 10 years, it will be interesting.
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scarletspeed7 posted...

Worldwide is totally uninteresting because it's still a really young market and there is no apples-to-apples comparison from year-to-year yet. Markets are constantly expanding, so every film has a higher potential viewership. Domestic has standard comparisons and can be adjusted for inflation to get an actual number of tickets sold while worldwide cannot.

"Worldwide is the only thing that matters" is kind of an asinine thing, because you just said "the only thing that matters is all of its entire gross." No shit. But domestic is an indicator of actual success through viewership since it can be tracked extremely accurately, while worldwide never will be. For people that like consistent scores and indicators, domestic is where the fun is to be had.

Since I'm not a studio executive, I really could give two shits about the untrackable stuff that makes up half of my paycheck. Maybe when markets have existed consistently for more than 10 years, it will be interesting.

Do you honestly think domestic doesn't have more screens open, increased population in the United States? United States won't even be the biggest market very soon.
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And to be honest the rest of your post I think is completely off the mark and doesn't accurately represent anything that is true. That opinion would be laughed off the movies board and these guys have been doing this tracking of movies for over a decade religiously.

But, it is your opinion.

Worldwide is king imo. It is trackable for studios. They know the splits. Movies that bombed here have been considered a success due to other markets. Warcraft is one. People were praying for Pacific Rim to be saved by Asian markets to get a sequel green lit. It happened.

Acting like these markets don't matter at all is really silly to me.
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Corrik posted...

Do you honestly think domestic doesn't have more screens open, increased population in the United States? United States won't even be the biggest market very soon.

Yeah but you can accurately adjust models for proportional population increases in a census model.

Corrik posted...

Worldwide is king imo. It is trackable for studios. They know the splits. Movies that bombed here have been considered a success due to other markets. Warcraft is one. People were praying for Pacific Rim to be saved by Asian markets to get a sequel green lit. It happened.

Like, you legit don't get what makes the domestic market interesting. I can track ticket sales. I can track a market that is not still emerging here. I don't give a fuck if another market saves a film. I only have an interest in film culture in the United States and its permeation. You consistently think what I care about is what studios care about; I don't. I'm more interested in how and why Americans digest the products they do, and how businesses respond to it.

Corrik posted...

Acting like these markets don't matter at all is really silly to me.

It's like you've got a need to constantly pick fights. I said I don't care about the worldwide market. I've explained why. The worldwide market may help make more impactful decisions, but it's so freaking dull. There is no race to the top in the worldwide market because it's constantly growing at a rate far surpassing simple population growth.

Also, if you think the number of theaters in the US is that important, you would be as interested in the domestic totals as myself. The rise of technology and the increased proliferation in venues for entertainment in the US is fascinating. It's less interesting in China, where they just build more theaters to sate the needs of their growing middle-class that actually is coming into existence.
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Corrik posted...

That opinion would be laughed off the movies board and these guys have been doing this tracking of movies for over a decade religiously.

Right, because the opinion of a bunch of movie snobs to another movie snob should totally shame me into having an interest in what I have an interest in. Oh wait, you're conflating my interest in the domestic market with my belief that its more important than the worldwide market still.
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Explain Avatar's worldwide if it is just an ever increasing medium.

I also actually dislike inflation arguments also.
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Like, you legit don't get what makes the domestic market interesting. I can track ticket sales. I can track a market that is not still emerging here. I don't give a fuck if another market saves a film. I only have an interest in film culture in the United States and its permeation. You consistently think what I care about is what studios care about; I don't. I'm more interested in how and why Americans digest the products they do, and how businesses respond to it.

You're aware this is a highly provincial perspective right

Like, even if you really don't care about China, Europe and the Americas are fully known quantities. There's a shitload of stable markets and you can filter the growing ones out pretty easily.
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Corrik posted...

Explain Avatar's worldwide if it is just an ever increasing medium.

I don't know why "Director of Titanic" and unique visuals and great marketing don't explain everything. Gone with the Wind was in way fewer theaters in an economically depressed market and is still the #1 film for reasons, too.

The thing is, it's quite clear that fucking outliers will always exist. It's also clear that the trend since 2005 has been clearly on the uptick as cinema worldwide has become more prevalent. It's clear. Naming a single films and saying, "Hah, scarlet now care about the market because I found an outlier" isn't going to change my mind. Mainly because you're being confrontational about my belief that something is dull to me. Which is just personal taste kind of like

Corrik posted...

I also actually dislike inflation arguments also.

Which is mostly fun to track to explore what captures the zeitgeist and to draw historical comparisons in America in an effort better understand the simple metric of what can put butts in seats.

I'm not a box office connoisseur. I don't pass myself off as one, either. I enjoy American culture and exploring what makes things popular in America. Maybe when I'm an expert in it one day, I'll move on to some other country.
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

You're aware this is a highly provincial perspective right

Actually, considering the Chinese market is EMERGING for films and has clearly been over the last ten years, and it seems to have yet to reach its peak, that's a market that is still emerging.

KanzarisKelshen posted...

There's a shitload of stable markets and you can filter the growing ones out pretty easily.

Yeah, but then you're not really doing worldwide. There are too many random country variables like that which I found really uninteresting. And again, I can't do inflation-based numbers for a worldwide market.
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And again, I can't do inflation-based numbers for a worldwide market.

Why not? It's all dollar-converted. It's perfectly possible to know what the world dollar is at compared to 1920 and calculate inflation adjustments off that.
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

And again, I can't do inflation-based numbers for a worldwide market.

Why not? It's all dollar-converted. It's perfectly possible to know what the world dollar is at compared to 1920 and calculate inflation adjustments off that.

Except there aren't numbers for worldwide before like 20 years ago that are accurate.
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I feel like your "discussing" is hostile in nature a lot.

Whenever you talk about totals most people are just going to assume you are talking about worldwide. And most articles talking about totals are discussing world wide outside of top weekends due to the fact that not every movie releases in every market simultaneously.

I guarantee the Titanic director argument for Avatar falls flat. Avatar was the first film medium cultural phenomenon that hit basically every market equally, also in perfect condition junction with the 3D fad.

If you only wish to discuss domestic, that is fine.

I just didn't realize that because Box Office topics don't usually preclude a large chunk of the box office. That is my fault. I am not even sure what the top domestic box office movies are. I do know TDK had a large following which tried to go and see the movie over and over to get it to the top of the domestic box office. I am going to assume they failed, but I do not know for sure.
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I don't ever say people can't talk about the worldwide numbers. I don't even know where you get this stuff. But here's the thing - since I literally can never talk to you without you saying, "Oh, you're being so hostile to me for me coming into a thread and bitching at you for not immediately beinding over to do what I want and agree with me," I'm just going to stop talking to you. Period. I'm just so tired of you constantly having these bizarre expectations and always saying I'm hostile. Like, I flat out just said, "I don't care about worldwide numbers personally. I find them boring," and somehow that's me being hostile, not me explaining why I don't pay attention to the numbers you come in demanding to talk about.
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scarletspeed7 posted...

I don't ever say people can't talk about the worldwide numbers. I don't even know where you get this stuff. But here's the thing - since I literally can never talk to you without you saying, "Oh, you're being so hostile to me for me coming into a thread and bitching at you for not immediately beinding over to do what I want and agree with me," I'm just going to stop talking to you. Period. I'm just so tired of you constantly having these bizarre expectations and always saying I'm hostile. Like, I flat out just said, "I don't care about worldwide numbers personally. I find them boring," and somehow that's me being hostile, not me explaining why I don't pay attention to the numbers you come in demanding to talk about.

...what is going on with you, bud...?



Seriously shaking my head right now.

Anyways, I do not like inflation numbers because they too regularly don't truly line up with where I feel they should. I can't take someone seriously when they say Gone With the Wind is the highest grossing domestic file of all time with inflation. I mean, it is accurate, but it really isn't representative for reasons as you somewhat stated above. I mean, talking about Avatar as an outlier while not considering Gone with the Wind one is a bit weird to me.
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Anyone got thoughts on Justice League? While I don't know if it technically bombed, it has to be considered a disaster. How does the universe go from here? Affleck is already talking about dropping out or has depending on which rumors you believe.
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I had a friend annoy me over the worldwide/domestic stuff

I told him one day that Thor seemed on track to pass Wonder Woman, and he kept going "No way. No fucking way. Not in a million years." because he has a Marvel hate boner. So then the other day he started just taunting endlessly like "See? I told you it'd never even get close! You're so dumb" and blah blah blah. And I was just so confused because I had just read articles about Thor passing it. And I linked him to the articles. And then he just went "Worldwide doesn't mean shit. Only domestic does."

Even though I know for a fact he's always used worldwide up until then. But he switched to domestic just so he could try to taunt me.
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StealThisSheen posted...

I had a friend annoy me over the worldwide/domestic stuff

I told him one day that Thor seemed on track to pass Wonder Woman, and he kept going "No way. No fucking way. Not in a million years." because he has a Marvel hate boner. So then the other day he started just taunting endlessly like "See? I told you it'd never even get close! You're so dumb" and blah blah blah. And I was just so confused because I had just read articles about Thor passing it. And I linked him to the articles. And then he just went "Worldwide doesn't mean shit. Only domestic does."

Even though I know for a fact he's always used worldwide up until then. But he switched to domestic just so he could try to taunt me.

DC fanboys seriously exist and they are relatively intolerable. Like, I actually liked MoS and BvS (not SS that was a pile of shit) but I mean they are totally insufferable with how they accuse Disney of paying for reviews and how DC movies are better than Marvel ones. Like, I think Dr Strange or Antman may have outgrossed Justice League. (Not sure)
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Corrik posted...

Anyone got thoughts on Justice League? While I don't know if it technically bombed, it has to be considered a disaster. How does the universe go from here? Affleck is already talking about dropping out or has depending on which rumors you believe.

The universe is a mess, Justice League's gross was nowhere near enough, especially considering it's enormous budget. It was also the worst performing DCEU movie which is even worse news for WB.

Affleck clearly wants out of the role and the universe or someone else wants rid of him; you don't say you're quitting directing a film and then acting in it later if you always wanted to do it. Who made the decision and reversed it we obviously don't know, but whatever comes out of the end will surely be another mess.

Let the DCEU die, make four good Wonder Woman films, make films in a Harley series for as long as you can convince men to watch Margot Robbie in hotpants and call it a day. Reboot everything when you want to make new batman and superman films in 10-15 years.
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Corrik posted...

StealThisSheen posted...

I had a friend annoy me over the worldwide/domestic stuff

I told him one day that Thor seemed on track to pass Wonder Woman, and he kept going "No way. No fucking way. Not in a million years." because he has a Marvel hate boner. So then the other day he started just taunting endlessly like "See? I told you it'd never even get close! You're so dumb" and blah blah blah. And I was just so confused because I had just read articles about Thor passing it. And I linked him to the articles. And then he just went "Worldwide doesn't mean shit. Only domestic does."

Even though I know for a fact he's always used worldwide up until then. But he switched to domestic just so he could try to taunt me.

DC fanboys seriously exist and they are relatively intolerable. Like, I actually liked MoS and BvS (not SS that was a pile of shit) but I mean they are totally insufferable with how they accuse Disney of paying for reviews and how DC movies are better than Marvel ones. Like, I think Dr Strange or Antman may have outgrossed Justice League. (Not sure)

Strange yes, Ant-Man no.
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I think part of the reason that Avengers works so well is that it is not rebooted. I think once an audience gets used to an established actor in a role, they can't appreciate one afterwards.

Spiderman can't recover from Toby.

Batman from Bale.

I think that Marvel is gonna be in major trouble when they recast Ironman and Captain America.
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Terastodon posted...

Let the DCEU die, make four good Wonder Woman films, make films in a Harley series for as long as you can convince men to watch Margot Robbie in hotpants and call it a day. Reboot everything when you want to make new batman and superman films in 10-15 years.

You don't even need to "let it die" so much as just go somewhere else in the DCEU for a while. Make Justice League Dark film - it's tonally out there and should be a completely different breed of DC film. Make a Doom Patrol film for the stoners. Make an Adam Strange movie and get Leonardo DiCaprio in a high concept sci fi film. Just focus on lesser characters and only give subtle hints that they are tied into the same universe. If you take great concepts and just hand them to good filmmakers, I think you'll differentiate yourself from Marvel's cottage industry of superhero films. Hell, the films I just named are barely supehero films.
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scarletspeed7 posted...

Terastodon posted...

Let the DCEU die, make four good Wonder Woman films, make films in a Harley series for as long as you can convince men to watch Margot Robbie in hotpants and call it a day. Reboot everything when you want to make new batman and superman films in 10-15 years.

You don't even need to "let it die" so much as just go somewhere else in the DCEU for a while. Make Justice League Dark film - it's tonally out there and should be a completely different breed of DC film. Make a Doom Patrol film for the stoners. Make an Adam Strange movie and get Leonardo DiCaprio in a high concept sci fi film. Just focus on lesser characters and only give subtle hints that they are tied into the same universe. If you take great concepts and just hand them to good filmmakers, I think you'll differentiate yourself from Marvel's cottage industry of superhero films. Hell, the films I just named are barely supehero films.

I think DCEU might just be dead by association at this point. No one has faith in what they are peddling.
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