Board 8 > Phoenix Wright Mafia Topic 10

(+) Yeah! (+)

htaeD posted...

I get the idea behind 1 out of 2 gives us a better chance at shooting scum, then 1 out of 3
but you forget that MI's scans dont actually rule out anyone from being scum either

But that doesn't magically change if we lynch someone today.

And if there even is a godfather he could still be in the unscanned group.

htaeD posted...

we technically have 2 mislynches left (we presume)
the third will cost us the game (again, we presume)

These are about as safe as presumptions can possibly be.

We know it can't possibly be 3 Scum left because 7 vs 13 would have been the super garbage setup.

We suspect it can't be just 1 because town has flipped a decent amount of power to the point that 5 vs 15 looks very wrong.

And we can safely assume scum can't remove multiple targets at night anymore without their vig and kidnapper.

I really can't see it being anything but 8vs2 right now.
---

Panthera posted...

You seem oddly unwilling to consider that we could actually lynch scum today. Your whole plan seems to hinge on the idea that scum hunting today isn't something you want us to be doing. Who do you think the remaining scum are, incidentally?

I am not unwilling to consider that.

I very specifically considered it.

And i clearly stated that a successful lynch today puts us in the same position as a NL followed by a successful lynch. If your heart is set on Donk well guess what? His alignment is going to be exactly the same tomorrow as it is today. He won't magically transform into a town overnight.

And scum hunt all you want. I was hoping to use my time in the logs to find additional leads there personally.

But i didn't think id get stuck explaining what seems so clear to actually everyone.

I think Death is the most likely person to be scum.

I think he is lying about which actions he did when and was therefore the person who targeted Corrik on n2.

I have previously expressed this position though so this isn't a new stance.
---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

But i didn't think id get stuck explaining what seems so clear to actually everyone.

Maybe because you aren't really doing much to address people's misgivings? Assuming all else is equal, what is hurt by lynching today and no lynching tomorrow (to note, I'm not exactly keen on no lynching tomorrow, I generally hate no lynch, but we'll roll with it for now)? If your suspicions of Death are correct, MI either dies tonight or he's legit and gets a scan off, and he has fewer targets to look for scum in. The slightly better odds for scanning is the point you haven't convinced me to not care about.

On the note of the Corrik target N2, just to clarify there's no role anyone can think of that scum could have that might still be able to throw the numbers off in some way, right? Setup meta is my worst mafia skill by far, it seems like it would be an investigation role of some sort, but I want to be certain I'm not missing something.
---

Panthera posted...

Assuming all else is equal, what is hurt by lynching today and no lynching tomorrow (to note, I'm not exactly keen on no lynching tomorrow

Today we have LESS information that we would have by waiting a day.

It is better to have MORE information.

How does this not address misgivings.

What the fuck isc wrong with everyone.
---

We will have the same more information tomorrow regardless of whether or not we NL today.

Technically by lynching, seeing a flip, and either death or I coming in with a scan that gives us more information to work off of tomorrow.

I still stand by it's better to NL when there isn't an obvious night kill so that the next day there's actually something different to work with.
---

Panthera posted...

On the note of the Corrik target N2, just to clarify there's no role anyone can think of that scum could have that might still be able to throw the numbers off in some way, right? Setup meta is my worst mafia skill by far, it seems like it would be an investigation role of some sort, but I want to be certain I'm not missing something.

Nothing that wouldn't have alerted a town member that they'd been retargetted.

Thus it was a mafia scanning role (because Corrik is still alive)

Thus, Death.

But though i think hes scum death is not the correct play today.

The correct play today is to nl and set ourselves up for the best opportunity to succeed.
---

VeryInsane posted...

[3] NewDonker - Arti, Shattered, MI
[1] No Lynch - (FD), FD
[1] MI - Corrik
[1] FD - Nana

---

My Immortal posted...

We will have the same more information tomorrow regardless of whether or not we NL today.

Yes with the ADDED POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE OF BEING ONE MISLYNCH CLOSER TO LOSING.

OR WE COULD NL AND HAVE THE INFORMATION WITH THE SAME NUMBER OF MLS WE HAVE NOW.

WHAT IS NOT CLEAR??

My Immortal posted...

I still stand by it's better to NL when there isn't an obvious night kill so that the next day there's actually something different to work with.

And who is that exactly?

Corrik?

Because hes the only 100% confirmed member of town we have. Everyone else has a potential scenario that could exist with them as scum not matter how unlikely.

There is NOT an obvious night kill.

Scum might remove Corrik Because he is confirmed.

Scum might remove a scanner but that is risky for them and is affected by how many of our claimed scanners are actually town which is something that i can't know for sure.
---

actually we will have one more bit of info in that we now know what the person we lynched was
---

htaeD posted...

actually we will have one more bit of info in that we now know what the person we lynched was

...

We want the extra information BEFORE wagering on a lynch.

After is no consolation.
---

also think about it FD
scum wont kill MI if he is town, because the damage is already done
with just 3 lynches we can with almost 100 % certainty find the non godfather scum
and then they take the risk of me finding the godfather (if he exists of course) with my scan if they leave me alive too

thats why I cant imagine them killing anyone but me tonight
(allthough honestly, I welcome them to be risky)
---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Today we have LESS information that we would have by waiting a day.

It is better to have MORE information.

How does this not address misgivings.

We have less information to make today's lynch, yes. Lynching today results in us having more information tomorrow due to the scans (or fake scans) being aimed at a smaller pool of players. however. And lynching scum today is a very beneficial scenario that doesn't exist if we no lynch, obviously. Lynching today has actual tangible benefits compared to no lynching, even if you personally prefer the benefits of not lynching.
---

I mean it would be nice if I knew corrik would be killed before me, but I cant assume that
---

I mean I will agree that if we are ever to Nolynch, it should be while scum has to keep killing

except like I said before, scum will probably just Nokill one night after all scanners/Corrik are dead
---

Panthera posted...

And lynching scum today is a very beneficial scenario that doesn't exist if we no lynch, obviously

The same person being correctly lynched today can be correctly be lynched tomorrow so this is wrong.

Panthera posted...

We have less information to make today's lynch, yes. Lynching today results in us having more information tomorrow due to the scans (or fake scans) being aimed at a smaller pool of players.

The smaller pools of players doesn't mean anything. Avoiding mislynches is what matters. And with the chance of the town scanner dying tonight it doesn't matter one fucking bit about the pool of players being scanned.

I am repeating myself now even though i am accurately countering everything being said.
---

htaeD posted...

I mean it would be nice if I knew corrik would be killed before me, but I cant assume that

Then what do you care?

If you think you will be killed tonight then you should WANT your flip to happen before town takes a shot on a lynch and not after.

What do you stand to gain?

Are you just selfishly insisting that you want to participate in a lynch before you die? One that MIGHT hit scum?

Put town's chances to win ahead of your own.
---

FD: "We need more information from out scanners."

Also FD: "Forceful_Dragon posted...

Panthera posted...

You seem oddly unwilling to consider that we could actually lynch scum today. Your whole plan seems to hinge on the idea that scum hunting today isn't something you want us to be doing. Who do you think the remaining scum are, incidentally?

I am not unwilling to consider that.

I very specifically considered it.

And i clearly stated that a successful lynch today puts us in the same position as a NL followed by a successful lynch. If your heart is set on Donk well guess what? His alignment is going to be exactly the same tomorrow as it is today. He won't magically transform into a town overnight.

And scum hunt all you want. I was hoping to use my time in the logs to find additional leads there personally.

But i didn't think id get stuck explaining what seems so clear to actually everyone.

I think Death is the most likely person to be scum.

I think he is lying about which actions he did when and was therefore the person who targeted Corrik on n2.

I have previously expressed this position though so this isn't a new stance.

---

Like, If you think Death is scum then what information is he giving you tomorrow to help you make any decision?
---

Yes nana?

What is your point because ive already covered that.
---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Yes nana?

What is your point because ive already covered that.

So why don't we just lynch Death today?
---

Nanahara715 posted...

Like, If you think Death is scum then what information is he giving you tomorrow to help you make any decision?

He MIGHT not be scum.

And if he is scum MIGHT not kill MI to try and get us to mislynch MI which gets us another cop scan.

I
Have
Already
Covered
This
---

another thing is, like you mentioned, even if we find the non-godfather first in the pool of not-scanned players
the godfather can still be in that same pool

I fully expect scum to never kill MI at all if he is town
---

Nanahara715 posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Yes nana?

What is your point because ive already covered that.

So why don't we just lynch Death today?

Because i MIGHT be wrong which MIGHT result in us being 2 MLs away tomorrow instead of 3 with the same info we could have had by NLing.

Seriously what is wrong with you guys??
---

htaeD posted...

another thing is, like you mentioned, even if we find the non-godfather first in the pool of not-scanned players
the godfather can still be in that same pool

I fully expect scum to never kill MI at all if he is town

Its possible.

Its also possible there is no godfather.

Its also possible MI is scum and was responsible for some of the most hardcore scumbussing i have ever seen.

There are a lot of possibilities.
---

FD, calm down please
I am not saying your logic is wrong

I just cant shake the feeling that something will go wrong if we NL, as I already think I know how tonight will end
---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Nanahara715 posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Yes nana?

What is your point because ive already covered that.

So why don't we just lynch Death today?

Because i MIGHT be wrong which MIGHT result in us being 2 MLs away tomorrow instead of 3 with the same info we could have had by NLing.

Seriously what is wrong with you guys??

This is so fucking stupid. Everyone might be wrong, but that doesn't mean we should be paralyzed by indecision.

You were wrong when you voted for Alakazam Day 1, but that mistake didn't end the fucking game, did it?

Mistakes get made. There are three fucking MLs left, there's no fucking reason to blow one now.

Counterpoint: we DONT know the scum team's remaining powers- something can still happen that will make the NL end up counting as a ML. For instance: they have a second EK, they have a double voter who has held back (moves LYlO up a day)

If there's a town player who is actually BP and lying about it, or for some reason there's an Nk at night, the NL would have cost us a ML.

Unless you're intimately familiar with what scum has left or know who all the Town players are then you would never NL here. And if you do know what scum has left and who all the Town players are, then you are scum.
---

We stand in a rare situation where there is a mathematically superior choice to NL.

I'll try to be more calm but it'sl very difficult when i keep getting the same illogical counterpoints over and over.
---

technically a NL cant count a ML, Nana

nor does it cost us one
---

Nanahara715 posted...

Unless you're intimately familiar with what scum has left or know who all the Town players are then you would never NL here. And if you do know what scum has left and who all the Town players are, then you are scum.

Scum does not have anything that can accelerate the clock.

They had an EK and a kidnapper. If they had a 3rd clock accelerator the game could have been over almost immediately.

This isn't risky meta analysis but rather common sense.

14 vs 6
Mislynch
13 vs 6
Night1 kill
12 vs 6
Mislynch
11 vs 6
Night2 kill
Night2 extra kill
Night 2 kidnap
Hypothetical night2 othet extra kill shit that you are saying is possible.
7 vs 6

Day 3 is lynch/lose? I don't think so.

Please bear in mind how incredibly fortunate we have been this game and don't let the fact that scum kidnapped themselves in a ploy that backfired immediately blind you to the facts.
---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

The same person being correctly lynched today can be correctly be lynched tomorrow so this is wrong.

This is true, but waiting also gives scum a chance to make it harder to lynch the right person tomorrow since they can kill someone to try to eliminate a voice they don't like.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

The smaller pools of players doesn't mean anything. Avoiding mislynches is what matters. And with the chance of the town scanner dying tonight it doesn't matter one fucking bit about the pool of players being scanned.

The smaller pool of players does mean something. It makes it easier for a scanner to find scum. The town scanner being killed tonight is a threat, yes, but it does obviously make it harder for scum to hide if they *are* one of the claimed scanners (ie if MI dies tonight, Death looks pretty bad). If only one scanner is town (likely, but not guaranteed) and dies tonight, our additional info tomorrow is a scum fake scan regardless of today's lynch. What we learn tomorrow is dependent on the scanner situation and how scum wants to play it, which is something they have control of regardless of what we do.

So if we no lynch, our new information tomorrow is who scum chooses to kill tonight. If we do lynch, we get their night kill, plus the flip of whoever we lynch today. So it comes down to whether you think seeing the night kill and getting a probably fake scan will be helpful enough in finding scum to balance out letting scum decide who they don't want alive heading into tomorrow. Which, when I type it out that way, is a lot closer than I originally felt (a dead scanner helps the scanner issue and confirms their results, a dead anyone else probably confirms one of the claimed scanners is scum, since scum can survive one member being scanned but not two), but I'm not sold on it. I don't like letting scum have the only input on the game state today, especially after a day that has basically stagnated on debating this issue.
---

Nanahara715 posted...

but that doesn't mean we should be paralyzed by indecision

Its not indecision when a sharpshooter pauses to line up their shot, is it?

A pause today does not hurt town and only has the potential to help. There is no incision involved but rather simple logic.
---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Nanahara715 posted...

Unless you're intimately familiar with what scum has left or know who all the Town players are then you would never NL here. And if you do know what scum has left and who all the Town players are, then you are scum.

Scum does not have anything that can accelerate the clock.

They had an EK and a kidnapper. If they had a 3rd clock accelerator the game could have been over almost immediately.

This isn't risky meta analysis but rather common sense.

14 vs 6
Mislynch
13 vs 6
Night1 kill
12 vs 6
Mislynch
11 vs 6
Night2 kill
Night2 extra kill
Night 2 kidnap
Hypothetical night2 othet extra kill shit that you are saying is possible.
7 vs 6

Day 3 is lynch/lose? I don't think so.

Please bear in mind how incredibly fortunate we have been this game and don't let the fact that scum kidnapped themselves in a ploy that backfired immediately blind you to the facts.

YOU DONT KNOW THIS.

And yes, we've seen games with D3 a strong LYLO.

Also, your numbers are straight up wrong and I'm not sure it's because your trying too hard to make a point that you're Town willing to lie, or you're scum trying to obscure the truth.

We started with 21. So your first numbers should be 15-6, add one to every town number.

This puts it at 8-6, not 7-6, which is a completely different animal. You're also ignoring flipped Town power like lawyer (to redirect a lynch) and claimed Town power (town directed Vig shot).
---

Panthera posted...

If only one scanner is town (likely, but not guaranteed) and dies tonight, our additional info tomorrow is a scum fake scan regardless of today's lynch.

Which is exactly why we should not lynch. If scum is going to put themselves in a position where their scumscanner has to present a fake scan, we want them to do that while we are still at 3 MLs instead of (potentially) 2.

Panthera posted...

So it comes down to whether you think seeing the night kill and getting a probably fake scan will be helpful enough in finding scum to balance out letting scum decide who they don't want alive heading into tomorrow.

Scum gets to do that anyways.

That's how night kills work.

Every single time.

Scum decides who they don't want alive heading into tomorrow and makes them not alive.

Welcome to a mafia game.

Please read my post 225. I covered the scenarios of both or just 1 scanner being town.
---

Like, we aren't NLing. It's obvious you don't have the support. Now stop being the most worthless player in the game and MOVE ON
---

21 players to begin with rather than 20 (unless you're claiming Independent on us) but the only numerical change there is a no lynch being possible (ironic, given today's discussion lol) without progressing town's death clock. But you also left out Nana's vig shot - I don't know if you buy his claim or not (I'm pretty sure I do) but if that exists it's another kill that could potentially hit town. So there was already a worst case scenario where town died pretty fast, which makes an extra kill for scum that much less likely.
---

Nanahara715 posted...

We started with 21. So your first numbers should be 15-6, add one to every town number.

This puts it at 8-6, not 7-6, which is a completely different animal. You're also ignoring flipped Town power like lawyer (to redirect a lynch) and claimed Town power (town directed Vig shot).

Yes, for some reason I thought our game was only 20 and didn't bother to double check.

But 8-6 is still mislynch/lose which is not a "completely different animal".

Also the vig can shoot town so that's another potential clock accelerant. Not a mark in your favor.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Please bear in mind how incredibly fortunate we have been this game and don't let the fact that scum kidnapped themselves in a ploy that backfired immediately blind you to the facts.

It's the same reason we know that there wouldn't possibly be 3 scum remaining.
---

Look, I wanna continue this conversation when the others get back

let me finish my ISOs first
---

Nanahara715 posted...

Like, we aren't NLing. It's obvious you don't have the support. Now stop being the most worthless player in the game and MOVE ON

Okay, that's all you needed to say.

Fuck this i'm done trying.

If you want to take the mathematically inferior option today then by all means, go ahead.

But I will have no part of it.

I hope you lynch scum, I really do, because it's a risk you are choosing to take for literally no goddamn reason.

I'm going to spend the rest of my available time today in the logs. If I find something interesting I'll let you know about it tomorrow.
---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Nanahara715 posted...

We started with 21. So your first numbers should be 15-6, add one to every town number.

This puts it at 8-6, not 7-6, which is a completely different animal. You're also ignoring flipped Town power like lawyer (to redirect a lynch) and claimed Town power (town directed Vig shot).

Yes, for some reason I thought our game was only 20 and didn't bother to double check.

But 8-6 is still mislynch/lose which is not a "completely different animal".

Also the vig can shoot town so that's another potential clock accelerant. Not a mark in your favor.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Please bear in mind how incredibly fortunate we have been this game and don't let the fact that scum kidnapped themselves in a ploy that backfired immediately blind you to the facts.

It's the same reason we know that there wouldn't possibly be 3 scum remaining.

Vig shot doesn't count as an accelerant (neither does lawyer) because it is a town controlled decision. It SHOULD count as an ML if misfired, which technically means you could be 7-6 in LYLO on D3 after 3 MLs, making D3 the fourth
---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

That's how night kills work.

Every single time.

Scum decides who they don't want alive heading into tomorrow and makes them not alive.

Welcome to a mafia game.

No really I never knew that I thought people just died of natural causes every night

It's almost like I was bringing up that obvious fact since it's the primary form of new information that we get from no lynching. The fake scan is probably less informative, especially if it's Death since he can pretty much just hit tvtropes and look at any claimed character and make shit up and be fine (his choice of target would be primarily determined on whose flavour he could most convincingly pick an item for, and he has more choices since he can justify targeting you/me/Arti as well as the unscanned trio), whereas scuMI at least tells us who he wants involved in guess-the-godfather.
---

Nana you need to chill a little too, honestly
---

There is zero reason to NL and in fact when there would be a reason at 4-2 it is still probably better not to NL in this scenario.

We have too many confirmed town. If scum is knocking off scanners, they can't kill all the scanners and the confirmed town fast enough and NL just lets them knock off a scanner/confirmed town instead of a viable lynch target. Which reduces a town vote and town voice from the lynch.

Right now you have 3 guarranteed town. DYL, Me, Nana. (If MI is town). And 2 of 3 (Arti, FD, whoever his third scan was).

This is why tomorrow you give MI one chance to bring back a guilty (assuming a mislynch today). If he brings back an Innocent, we lynch MI and confirm everyone. If he has an innocent scan, we Lynch him. He flips scum and everyone is suspect but we have 2 shots to hit scum in his 4 inno scans.

If he is town, we confirm dyl me and Nana are town. We also confirm that 3 of the 4 inno scans are indeed town. Giving us a 1/1 shot at scum and a 1 and 4 shot after.

There isn't a real.scenario where NLing helps us unless you get to lylo and have no confirmed town.
---

DYL was the one who wasnt tracked anywhere, right?
and we know scum had a role that moves because of foolmo's watch on corrik

I keep forgetting that about DYL
---

htaeD posted...

DYL was the one who wasnt tracked anywhere, right?
and we know scum had a role that moves because of foolmo's watch on corrik

I keep forgetting that about DYL

Scum wouldn't have killed the tracker if Nana or DYL was scum. All you need to know regarding it. Unless MI is scum.
---

allthough we cant assume the other scum is only in the people he scanned innocent
---

htaeD posted...

allthough we cant assume the other scum is only in the people he scanned innocent

When you take out all the confirmed, there isn't going to be much left.
---

htaeD posted...

DYL was the one who wasnt tracked anywhere, right?
and we know scum had a role that moves because of foolmo's watch on corrik

I keep forgetting that about DYL

DYL and Nana were both tracked nowhere.

DYL was also scanned innocent by MI
---

so whats your take on no lynchin, Arti?
---

I don't think a no lynch makes sense if you think there's even 1 scum amongst the unscanned vanillas

If we no lynch and both scanners are town, then presumably one of them dies tonight. That leaves the remaining scanner a 1 in 3 chance of hitting scum. If they hit, great! If they don't then you are left with a 50/50 between the remaining 2.

If we go for a lynch today, we have the same 1 in 3 chance of lynching scum. Again if we do, great! If we don't and we are in the same scenario scanner wise then the scanner has a 50% chance of hitting scums but even if they don't, that leaves the unscanned person as very likely scum. The only way it backfires is if scum have a godfather amongst the unscanned and MI scans them. Or if there's no scum amongst that group of 3.

From what I can gather people would trade 1 for 1 if a scanner is scum and causes a mislynch. This isn't quite the same but It's similar. No lynching today doesn't guarantee we catch scum tomorrow. Lynching today, even if we are wrong, has an extremely high chance of us nailing scum tomorrow.

Of course for me the odds are different because I'm amongst the 3. So statistically that makes no lynch even less appealing

I do see where FD is coming from though. He doesnt trust the scanners so wants the information from the night to work with. If you think Death is scum, which can't be discounted, then seeing if he lives through the night provides more information to work with.

FD - If we no lynched and Death lives through the night, what would you do? If he doesn't, what would you do?

Also I'll tell you what I really don't like. Where is Newdonker? Put under pressure he has disappeared