Current Events > Will a democrat win Ohio's 12th special congressional election tonight?

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Kombucha 08/07/18 9:10:57 PM #1:	Is there a coming blue wave? - Results (18 votes) Yes 44.44% (8 votes) 8 No 55.56% (10 votes) 10 Danny OConnor (D) leads by 5 percentage points over Troy Balderson (R) with 50 percent of precincts fully reporting. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/07/us/elections/results-ohio-special-house-election-district-12.html --- http://www.last.fm/user/walkingishonest <cite>Kombucha posted [p:906455768] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote> Is there a coming blue wave? - Results (18 votes) Yes 44.44% (8 votes) 8 No 55.56% (10 votes) 10 Danny OConnor (D) leads by 5 percentage points over Troy Balderson (R) with 50 percent of precincts fully reporting. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/07/us/elections/results-ohio-special-house-election-district-12.html</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BWLurker 08/07/18 9:12:27 PM #2:	Probably. You'd think the GOP would learn that when Trump stumps for someone, it turns public opinion against them. <cite>BWLurker posted [p:906455852] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Probably. You'd think the GOP would learn that when Trump stumps for someone, it turns public opinion against them.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
IslamMD 08/07/18 9:13:15 PM #3:	Yes --- Kevin Durant. Lord of the Warriors. Swisher of Hoops. <cite>IslamMD posted [p:906455899] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Yes</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Damn_Underscore 08/07/18 9:17:10 PM #4:	It's basically up to Delaware County which is about equal right now. Who are these guys anyway? --- Shenmue II = best game of all time Shenmue = 2nd best game of all time <cite>Damn_Underscore posted [p:906456134] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>It's basically up to Delaware County which is about equal right now. Who are these guys anyway?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Kombucha 08/07/18 9:37:18 PM #5:	It's difficult to tell who politicians are and what they stand for when they have so little experience. So really, I couldn't tell you much. You can kind of glean what a candidate stands for if you follow the money though: https://www.opensecrets.org/races/contributors?cycle=2018&id=OH12&spec=N Right off the bat I noticed contributions from end citizens united. O'Connor has said he does not intend to support Nancy Pelosi as a party leader. Danny OConnor leads by 0.9 percentage points, or 1,433 votes, over Troy Balderson with 81 percent of precincts fully reporting. --- http://www.last.fm/user/walkingishonest <cite>Kombucha posted [p:906457349] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>It's difficult to tell who politicians are and what they stand for when they have so little experience. So really, I couldn't tell you much. You can kind of glean what a candidate stands for if you follow the money though: https://www.opensecrets.org/races/contributors?cycle=2018&id=OH12&spec=N Right off the bat I noticed contributions from end citizens united. O'Connor has said he does not intend to support Nancy Pelosi as a party leader. Danny OConnor leads by 0.9 percentage points, or 1,433 votes, over Troy Balderson with 81 percent of precincts fully reporting.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Coffeebeanz 08/07/18 9:39:18 PM #6:	It's gonna be hard to end Citizens United after it got upheld by the supreme court, sadly. --- Physician [Internal Medicine] <cite>Coffeebeanz posted [p:906457496] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>It's gonna be hard to end Citizens United after it got upheld by the supreme court, sadly.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
TheRealDill2000 08/07/18 9:40:12 PM #7:	Trump and Fox News have been talking about the upcoming Red Wave. This talk of a blue wave is #fakenews. --- CE's source of sagely advice #BLM <cite>TheRealDill2000 posted [p:906457540] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Trump and Fox News have been talking about the upcoming Red Wave. This talk of a blue wave is #fakenews.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BWLurker 08/07/18 9:40:44 PM #8:	This is quite a close election for a district that was 12+ red <cite>BWLurker posted [p:906457565] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>This is quite a close election for a district that was 12+ red</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Coffeebeanz 08/07/18 9:41:00 PM #9:	TheRealDill2000 posted... Trump and Fox News have been talking about the upcoming Red Wave. This talk of a blue wave is #fakenews. The only wave will be MAGA fanboy tears --- Physician [Internal Medicine] <cite>Coffeebeanz posted [p:906457580] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>TheRealDill2000 posted...</cite> <quote>Trump and Fox News have been talking about the upcoming Red Wave. This talk of a blue wave is #fakenews.</quote> The only wave will be MAGA fanboy tears</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Damn_Underscore 08/07/18 9:44:02 PM #10:	BWLurker posted... This is quite a close election for a district that was 12+ red The results right now by county are similar to what they were in the presidential election --- Shenmue II = best game of all time Shenmue = 2nd best game of all time <cite>Damn_Underscore posted [p:906457767] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>BWLurker posted...</cite> <quote>This is quite a close election for a district that was 12+ red</quote> The results right now by county are similar to what they were in the presidential election</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Garioshi 08/07/18 9:44:59 PM #11:	they're less than 200 votes apart right now holy shit --- "Never seen a group of people more obsessed with a man's naked, hairy ass than the men at Current Events." -SBAllen 2018 We live in a society <cite>Garioshi posted [p:906457838] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>they're less than 200 votes apart right now holy shit</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BWLurker 08/07/18 9:45:44 PM #12:	Damn_Underscore posted... BWLurker posted... This is quite a close election for a district that was 12+ red The results right now by county are similar to what they were in the presidential election My point is that this district should have been a slam dunk for Balderson <cite>BWLurker posted [p:906457876] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>Damn_Underscore posted...</cite> <quote><cite>BWLurker posted...</cite> <quote>This is quite a close election for a district that was 12+ red</quote> The results right now by county are similar to what they were in the presidential election</quote> My point is that this district should have been a slam dunk for Balderson</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Coffeebeanz 08/07/18 9:47:30 PM #13:	I'll be thrilled to see Trump lose in 2020 even though I cringe at the 4-8 years of smug elitism I'll have to endure afterwards. More "teaching moments" --- Physician [Internal Medicine] <cite>Coffeebeanz posted [p:906457986] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>I'll be thrilled to see Trump lose in 2020 even though I cringe at the 4-8 years of smug elitism I'll have to endure afterwards. More "teaching moments"</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Kombucha 08/07/18 9:50:40 PM #14:	Looks like Delaware county is red and basically has the most remaining percentage left to be counted. Troy Balderson(R) leads by 0.6 percentage points, or 1,031 votes, over Danny OConnor(D) with 89 percent of precincts fully reporting. --- http://www.last.fm/user/walkingishonest <cite>Kombucha posted [p:906458149] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Looks like Delaware county is red and basically has the most remaining percentage left to be counted. Troy Balderson(R) leads by 0.6 percentage points, or 1,031 votes, over Danny OConnor(D) with 89 percent of precincts fully reporting.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Capn Circus 08/07/18 11:50:01 PM #15:	Looks like the liberals lost this one --- "I think that man will be president right about the time when spaceships come down filled with dinosaurs in red capes" - Tom Hanks <cite>Capn Circus posted [p:906464899] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Looks like the liberals lost this one</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BWLurker 08/07/18 11:52:58 PM #16:	Capn Circus posted... Looks like the liberals lost this one I wouldn't say so. Binary wins don't really matter in special elections like this. Balderson won't have enough time in Congress for his incumbency to matter in November. The fact that a +11 district went to less than a percentage point victory scares the hell out of any Republicans who understand political analysis. <cite>BWLurker posted [p:906465061] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>Capn Circus posted...</cite> <quote>Looks like the liberals lost this one</quote> I wouldn't say so. Binary wins don't really matter in special elections like this. Balderson won't have enough time in Congress for his incumbency to matter in November. The fact that a +11 district went to less than a percentage point victory scares the hell out of any Republicans who understand political analysis.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ElatedVenusaur 08/07/18 11:56:20 PM #17:	Close, but no cigar here. Perhaps in 3 months from now? <cite>ElatedVenusaur posted [p:906465271] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Close, but no cigar here. Perhaps in 3 months from now?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Capn Circus 08/08/18 12:03:01 AM #18:	BWLurker posted... Capn Circus posted... Looks like the liberals lost this one I wouldn't say so. Binary wins don't really matter in special elections like this. Balderson won't have enough time in Congress for his incumbency to matter in November. The fact that a +11 district went to less than a percentage point victory scares the hell out of any Republicans who understand political analysis. That's fine. A win is a win. We'll just have to see how it keeps into November. --- "I think that man will be president right about the time when spaceships come down filled with dinosaurs in red capes" - Tom Hanks <cite>Capn Circus posted [p:906465630] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>BWLurker posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Capn Circus posted...</cite> <quote>Looks like the liberals lost this one</quote> I wouldn't say so. Binary wins don't really matter in special elections like this. Balderson won't have enough time in Congress for his incumbency to matter in November. The fact that a +11 district went to less than a percentage point victory scares the hell out of any Republicans who understand political analysis.</quote> That's fine. A win is a win. We'll just have to see how it keeps into November.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Nomadic View 08/08/18 9:53:05 AM #19:	Is Ohio typically a swing state in mid terms? --- {}\\{}(o){}\\//{}//=\\{})){}(< \\//{}{{-{}//\\{} {}xxxxxxxx{};;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;> <cite>Nomadic View posted [p:906481871] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Is Ohio typically a swing state in mid terms?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MAGA2020 08/08/18 10:15:49 AM #20:	Hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiighway toooooooooo tha MAGA ZONE! ^_^ <cite>MAGA2020 posted [p:906482932] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiighway toooooooooo tha MAGA ZONE! ^_^</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Balrog0 08/08/18 10:19:39 AM #21:	Nomadic View posted... Is Ohio typically a swing state in mid terms? well, the concept of a swing state usually applies to presidential elections, but yes, Ohio's statewide races are often close and contentious however, from what I've seen, this year Sherrod Brown is not worried about his opponent --- But to you who are listening I say: Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you. <cite>Balrog0 posted [p:906483111] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>Nomadic View posted...</cite> <quote>Is Ohio typically a swing state in mid terms?</quote> well, the concept of a swing state usually applies to presidential elections, but yes, Ohio's statewide races are often close and contentious however, from what I've seen, this year Sherrod Brown is not worried about his opponent</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
darkjedilink 08/08/18 10:20:47 AM #22:	BWLurker posted... Capn Circus posted... Looks like the liberals lost this one I wouldn't say so. Binary wins don't really matter in special elections like this. Balderson won't have enough time in Congress for his incumbency to matter in November. The fact that a +11 district went to less than a percentage point victory scares the hell out of any Republicans who understand political analysis. Just 12 hours ago, you were certain he'd lose... --- 'It's okay that those gangbangers stole all my personal belongings and cash at gunpoint, cuz they're building a rec center!' - OneTimeBen <cite>darkjedilink posted [p:906483155] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>BWLurker posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Capn Circus posted...</cite> <quote>Looks like the liberals lost this one</quote> I wouldn't say so. Binary wins don't really matter in special elections like this. Balderson won't have enough time in Congress for his incumbency to matter in November. The fact that a +11 district went to less than a percentage point victory scares the hell out of any Republicans who understand political analysis.</quote> Just 12 hours ago, you were certain he'd lose...</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Balrog0 08/08/18 10:21:25 AM #23:	from what I understand, they are waiting for provisional ballots to call the race, right? that was the state of things when I went ot bed last night --- But to you who are listening I say: Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you. <cite>Balrog0 posted [p:906483186] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>from what I understand, they are waiting for provisional ballots to call the race, right? that was the state of things when I went ot bed last night</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Balrog0 08/08/18 6:01:14 PM #24:	I legit think the democrat will win here btw the gap between the D and R just shrank by about 200 due to a counting error There are around 3k provisional ballots, which tend to favor democrats pretty heavily, and about 5000 absentee ballots which are hard to predict it's plausible. there's gonna be a recount either way imho --- But to you who are listening I say: Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you. <cite>Balrog0 posted [p:906517480] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>I legit think the democrat will win here btw the gap between the D and R just shrank by about 200 due to a counting error There are around 3k provisional ballots, which tend to favor democrats pretty heavily, and about 5000 absentee ballots which are hard to predict it's plausible. there's gonna be a recount either way imho</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Balrog0 08/08/18 6:02:16 PM #25:	they dont start counting those until 10 days from now though --- But to you who are listening I say: Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you. <cite>Balrog0 posted [p:906517546] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>they dont start counting those until 10 days from now though</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BWLurker 08/08/18 6:03:45 PM #26:	Balrog0 posted... they dont start counting those until 10 days from now though That could actually flip it? O'Connor can wait that long to concede? <cite>BWLurker posted [p:906517629] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>Balrog0 posted...</cite> <quote>they dont start counting those until 10 days from now though</quote> That could actually flip it? O'Connor can wait that long to concede?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
davyheinz 08/08/18 6:04:09 PM #27:	Counting error? Hmm --- Currently playing: Strider, Jet Force Gemini, Psychonauts, Red Dead Redemption <cite>davyheinz posted [p:906517652] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Counting error? Hmm</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Balrog0 08/08/18 6:07:39 PM #28:	BWLurker posted... Balrog0 posted... they dont start counting those until 10 days from now though That could actually flip it? O'Connor can wait that long to concede? I'm not an expert on Ohio voting laws but my understanding is that the state/county isn't allowed to start counting provisional ballots and absentee ballots until 10 days after the election for some reason. In this case, the vote is close enough that O'Connor could demand a recount, but I don't expect either candidate to concede until after the other votes are counted. And then whoever loses will almost certainly ask for a recount if they can edit: to be clear it is a long shot for O'Connor to win here, I am going out on a limb based on anecdotes and my gut, not really based on research or anything. Mathematically it is definitely possible, though --- But to you who are listening I say: Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you. <cite>Balrog0 posted [p:906517862] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>BWLurker posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Balrog0 posted...</cite> <quote>they dont start counting those until 10 days from now though</quote> That could actually flip it? O'Connor can wait that long to concede?</quote> I'm not an expert on Ohio voting laws but my understanding is that the state/county isn't allowed to start counting provisional ballots and absentee ballots until 10 days after the election for some reason. In this case, the vote is close enough that O'Connor could demand a recount, but I don't expect either candidate to concede until after the other votes are counted. And then whoever loses will almost certainly ask for a recount if they can edit: to be clear it is a long shot for O'Connor to win here, I am going out on a limb based on anecdotes and my gut, not really based on research or anything. Mathematically it is definitely possible, though</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BWLurker 08/08/18 6:14:18 PM #29:	Balrog0 posted... BWLurker posted... Balrog0 posted... they dont start counting those until 10 days from now though That could actually flip it? O'Connor can wait that long to concede? I'm not an expert on Ohio voting laws but my understanding is that the state/county isn't allowed to start counting provisional ballots and absentee ballots until 10 days after the election for some reason. In this case, the vote is close enough that O'Connor could demand a recount, but I don't expect either candidate to concede until after the other votes are counted. And then whoever loses will almost certainly ask for a recount if they can edit: to be clear it is a long shot for O'Connor to win here, I am going out on a limb based on anecdotes and my gut, not really based on research or anything. Mathematically it is definitely possible, though Huh, that'd be quite the upset <cite>BWLurker posted [p:906518262] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>Balrog0 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>BWLurker posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Balrog0 posted...</cite> <quote>they dont start counting those until 10 days from now though</quote> That could actually flip it? O'Connor can wait that long to concede?</quote> I'm not an expert on Ohio voting laws but my understanding is that the state/county isn't allowed to start counting provisional ballots and absentee ballots until 10 days after the election for some reason. In this case, the vote is close enough that O'Connor could demand a recount, but I don't expect either candidate to concede until after the other votes are counted. And then whoever loses will almost certainly ask for a recount if they can edit: to be clear it is a long shot for O'Connor to win here, I am going out on a limb based on anecdotes and my gut, not really based on research or anything. Mathematically it is definitely possible, though</quote> Huh, that'd be quite the upset</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
DirkDiggles 08/08/18 6:19:11 PM #30:	Is there a coming blue wave? --- https://imgtc.com/i/5CTKeaL.jpg https://imgtc.com/i/G9w39yE.gif <cite>DirkDiggles posted [p:906518554] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Is there a coming blue wave? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Funbazooka 08/08/18 6:22:25 PM #31:	--- "Don't trade your authenticity for approval." -Kanye West <cite>Funbazooka posted [p:906518743] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote></quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
southcoast09 08/08/18 6:25:13 PM #32:	Coffeebeanz posted... TheRealDill2000 posted... Trump and Fox News have been talking about the upcoming Red Wave. This talk of a blue wave is #fakenews. The only wave will be MAGA fanboy tears Ohh, how clever. You took the whole the blue wave will be liberal tears thing and copy catted it. --- #MakeFinalFantasyGreatAgain <cite>southcoast09 posted [p:906518907] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>Coffeebeanz posted...</cite> <quote><cite>TheRealDill2000 posted...</cite> <quote>Trump and Fox News have been talking about the upcoming Red Wave. This talk of a blue wave is #fakenews.</quote> The only wave will be MAGA fanboy tears</quote> Ohh, how clever. You took the whole the blue wave will be liberal tears thing and copy catted it.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Kombucha 08/08/18 6:26:24 PM #33:	Fuck off with this 4chan garbage. Trying to have a topic here but in come the russian neckbeardbots. --- http://www.last.fm/user/walkingishonest <cite>Kombucha posted [p:906518991] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Fuck off with this 4chan garbage. Trying to have a topic here but in come the russian neckbeardbots. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BWLurker 08/08/18 6:27:29 PM #34:	Garbage tier memes too, lol <cite>BWLurker posted [p:906519053] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Garbage tier memes too, lol</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Funbazooka 08/08/18 6:27:54 PM #35:	Russians invented the neckbeard --- "Don't trade your authenticity for approval." -Kanye West <cite>Funbazooka posted [p:906519073] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Russians invented the neckbeard</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Capn Circus 08/08/18 6:28:10 PM #36:	--- "I think that man will be president right about the time when spaceships come down filled with dinosaurs in red capes" - Tom Hanks <cite>Capn Circus posted [p:906519092] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote></quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BWLurker 08/08/18 6:30:55 PM #37:	Guess what they say is true:Trumpers can't meme <cite>BWLurker posted [p:906519267] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>Guess what they say is true:Trumpers can't meme</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
DirkDiggles 08/08/18 6:32:10 PM #38:	Kombucha posted... Fuck off with this 4chan garbage. Trying to have a topic here but in come the russian neckbeardbots. --- https://imgtc.com/i/5CTKeaL.jpg https://imgtc.com/i/G9w39yE.gif <cite>DirkDiggles posted [p:906519347] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>Kombucha posted...</cite> <quote>Fuck off with this 4chan garbage. Trying to have a topic here but in come the russian neckbeardbots. </quote> </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
southcoast09 08/08/18 6:43:08 PM #39:	Capn Circus posted... Haha, good one --- #MakeFinalFantasyGreatAgain <cite>southcoast09 posted [p:906520023] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote><cite>Capn Circus posted...</cite> <quote></quote> Haha, good one</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BWLurker 08/08/18 6:47:27 PM #40:	I saw this writeup on 261, I'd love to hear any Trumper argue with it benjjjamin posted... Here are the R spreads of those 9 races they defended: Kansas 4th: R+29. Won R+6. Lost 23 popularity points. Montana @ large: R+21. Won R+6. Lost 16 popularity points. Georgia 6th: R+9. Won R+4. Lost 6 popularity points South Carolina 5th: R+19. Won R+3. Lost 16 popularity points. Utah 3rd: R+35. Won R+32. Lost 3 popularity points. PA 18th: R+21. Lost D+.5. Lost 22 popularity points. AZ 8th: R+25. Won R+5. Lost 20 popularity points. TX 27th: R+26th. Won R+21. Lost 5 popularity points. OH 12th: R+14. Won R+1 preliminarily. Lost 13 popularity points. Average loss of popularity points: 13. Anticipated house losses in November if -13% holds: 70. Chance of losing the house this year if -13% holds: 92% Chance of losing the senate THIS YEAR if -13% holds: 45%. These 9 defenses have been from deeply republican areas. Average spread is +25% republican. 9 defenses, should have been 9 wins. It was almost 4 losses. Math will exact its reality, when you put that national 13 point republican loss to a litany of house seats with under a 10 point spread. Of which there was only ONE so far. He didn't even factor in the actual losses R sustained, such as Lamb <cite>BWLurker posted [p:906520302] in Will a dem... [t:76880373]...</cite> <quote>I saw this writeup on 261, I'd love to hear any Trumper argue with it <cite>benjjjamin posted...</cite> <quote>Here are the R spreads of those 9 races they defended: Kansas 4th: R+29. Won R+6. Lost 23 popularity points. Montana @ large: R+21. Won R+6. Lost 16 popularity points. Georgia 6th: R+9. Won R+4. Lost 6 popularity points South Carolina 5th: R+19. Won R+3. Lost 16 popularity points. Utah 3rd: R+35. Won R+32. Lost 3 popularity points. PA 18th: R+21. Lost D+.5. Lost 22 popularity points. AZ 8th: R+25. Won R+5. Lost 20 popularity points. TX 27th: R+26th. Won R+21. Lost 5 popularity points. OH 12th: R+14. Won R+1 preliminarily. Lost 13 popularity points. Average loss of popularity points: 13. Anticipated house losses in November if -13% holds: 70. Chance of losing the house this year if -13% holds: 92% Chance of losing the senate THIS YEAR if -13% holds: 45%. These 9 defenses have been from deeply republican areas. Average spread is +25% republican. 9 defenses, should have been 9 wins. It was almost 4 losses. Math will exact its reality, when you put that national 13 point republican loss to a litany of house seats with under a 10 point spread. Of which there was only ONE so far.</quote> He didn't even factor in the actual losses R sustained, such as Lamb</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Current Events > Will a democrat win Ohio's 12th special congressional election tonight? (+) Yeah! (+)

Current Events > Will a democrat win Ohio's 12th special congressional election tonight?