Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1281

(+) Yeah! (+)

Virtually nobody who still votes in gamefaqs polls is actually in school at this point. Since we have to revamp how to do trend times anyways thanks to the poll start time changing, does it make sense to maintain the pretense that an "ASV" still exists?
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Day matches had very weak trends last time, yeah.

Might be better off dividing it into 4 hour chunks or something like that regardless of timeframe, at least until we can get a sense of the trends.
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Tidus basically tied Missingno last time, who lost narrowly to Squall. he shouldn't have any trouble with DK. i have him beating Leon to finally make it to round 3.
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Xuxon posted...

Tidus basically tied Missingno last time

excuse me i think you mean "tidus cheated"
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Real winners never cheat.

xp1337 posted...

Xuxon posted...

Tidus basically tied Missingno last time

excuse me i think you mean "tidus cheated"

i forgot about that. did Bacon ever say how much? i figured it wasn't much if he didn't bother removing votes like he did with the Touhous.
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He said cheating was "caught" at a 2:1 ratio in favor of Tidus

it just means Missingno had better cheaters
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AxemRedRanger posted...

Virtually nobody who still votes in gamefaqs polls is actually in school at this point. Since we have to revamp how to do trend times anyways thanks to the poll start time changing, does it make sense to maintain the pretense that an "ASV" still exists?

In the past, I had proposed the theory of an After Work Vote (AWV) based on some very limited evidence in 2 polls. The first poll that started the theory of the After Work Vote was the Leap Year poll from 2012. It's been rather tough obtaining more evidence that would support the AWV theory because we've had so few polls on GameFAQs related to working a job.

These are 2 main polls that suggest the existence of an AWV:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q2oIHYONfGB8aelXsUpCJ6bI2OgYItUtaQDKs7EYCY0/pub?gid=1964933079

Both polls show that there appears to be a trend shift around 5:30 PM, so I've used 5:30 PM as the start of the AWV (which runs up until 10:00 PM).
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thank you everyone who supported metal sonic! happy to see him make the bracket even though the Boss is gonna kick his ass
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Wow, Neptune actually made it in. I'm glad I posted threads on several different boards to get people to nom her.
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ZenOfThunder posted...

thank you everyone who supported metal sonic! happy to see him make the bracket even though the Boss is gonna kick his ass

I dunno he wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he sneaked on by
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hey guys, i have a favor to ask of all of you

now that the bracket is here I really need help documenting this contest! it's a lot to do and I just opened a small business, i'm at work for 10-12 hours a day 6 days a week and while I do get downtime there's no fucking internet there a lot of the time so I'll probably miss a lot of key moments

please, if you find something you think is either funny or insightful or worth documenting, take a screenshot and throw it in the archive. i really, really appreciate it, and if i ever use any of your screenshots in a write-up i'll give you full credit.

thank you so much in advance!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/76969215
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UltimaterializerX posted...

I went with fun stuff. Like I have Rosalina winning three times, because why not?

I also think Pokemon is going to annihilate this field. We haven't had a contest since Pokemon Go. I don't think they can stack up to the big guns, but they can destroy everything else even more than usual. Like if Pikachu beat Mega Man and Red beat Cloud I would not at all be surprised.

Pikachu Let's Pokemon Go To the Polls or whatever it's name is comes out during contest time, I think someone said it's on the day of Pikachu's division final if he makes it that far. People don't like Let's Go much, but even a small boost is likely enough to make Pikachu serious business. I actually have Red > Cloud in my bracket too just on a hunch.
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It comes out on the day of Pikachu vs Zero.
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Monika > Wario looks tempting as hell

rrrrrgh
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Red beat Cloud I would not at all be surprised.

Oh what a day that would be

I'm praying
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Panthera posted...

Pikachu Let's Pokemon Go To the Polls or whatever it's name is comes out during contest time, I think someone said it's on the day of Pikachu's division final if he makes it that far. People don't like Let's Go much, but even a small boost is likely enough to make Pikachu serious business. I actually have Red > Cloud in my bracket too just on a hunch.

The reception to the Pokemon Let's Go games among the hardcore fans has not been very good at all. It might take a few weeks after the games come out for some people to get on board with the games if they turn out to be rather good based on the people who get the game at launch.
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Draven might have other sources these days but he wasn't that strong without the LoL Reddit rally. With that said, with our lower vote totals, he doesn't really need too much help.
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LusterSoldier posted...

The reception to the Pokemon Let's Go games among the hardcore fans has not been very good at all. It might take a few weeks after the games come out for some people to get on board with the games if they turn out to be rather good based on the people who get the game at launch.

Yeah but what I figure could end up happening is people at least make a point of checking the reception, which could bring some Pokemon fans here regardless. I don't expect it to be a big deal like...what was it, Mario Sunshine coming out on Mario vs Cloud day or something? but it probably still helps Pikachu out a little
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These upcoming Pokemon games are not even comparable to Mario Sunshine. Where as there was a lot of hype leading up to Mario Sunshine, that hype doesn't seem to exist for Pokemon Let's Go.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Wreath posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

Red beat Cloud I would not at all be surprised.

Oh what a day that would be

I'm praying

It's already happened! Squirtle beat Cloud. The PokeBros beat the FF7Bros. Red should tap dat ass against Cloud. My bracket is so whack though so who cares.

Watch this finally be the contest where Blizzard rallies something, or Draven just repeats even though League is dying a fast death.

I dunno about you but I'm not sleeping on D.va. I only have her winning round 1 but of all the rallies the overwatch world is fucking huge

And same I have pokemon dominating until the finals basically
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LusterSoldier posted...

These upcoming Pokemon games are not even comparable to Mario Sunshine. Where as there was a lot of hype leading up to Mario Sunshine, that hype doesn't seem to exist for Pokemon Let's Go.

Then again, it takes a lot less to affect the poll than it did in 2002.
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Double voting is meaningless. In 2013 our vote totals were almost 3 times what we get now. We are still less resistant to rallies than we were back then.

L-Block isn't really much of a joke character anymore. It doesn't even necessarily get hurt by increasing the power of registered voters. With that said, I'm not going to bet anything on a Kefka match.
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Next stats topic link for those who have certain users blocked;

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77062124
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UltimaterializerX posted...

This is why I think Kefka beats L-Block, by the way. Double voting is a REALLY big deal.

The whole "registered user votes" being worth double of anonymous voters is a significant factor to consider in filling out a bracket.

If anyone remembers the registered user voting stats that Allen provided in the 2015, we've seen that registered users prefer Nintendo over non-Nintendo stuff.

And in 2013, Allen provided a list of matches that would have flipped the other way if the contest was limited to just registered users and it shows that registered users also have a bigger preference for joke characters when compared to anonymous users. It also reconfirms the registered user preference for Nintendo over non-Nintendo in close matches.
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LusterSoldier posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

This is why I think Kefka beats L-Block, by the way. Double voting is a REALLY big deal.

The whole "registered user votes" being worth double of anonymous voters is a significant factor to consider in filling out a bracket.

If anyone remembers the registered user voting stats that Allen provided in the 2015, we've seen that registered users prefer Nintendo over non-Nintendo stuff.

And in 2013, Allen provided a list of matches that would have flipped the other way if the contest was limited to just registered users and it shows that registered users also have a bigger preference for joke characters when compared to anonymous users. It also reconfirms the registered user preference for Nintendo over non-Nintendo in close matches.

Thanks luster you could have just said nintendofaqs
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1618-division-32-64-round-1-pokemon-gold-silver-crystal-vs

We saw the effect even back in 2004. When non-registered voters were allowed to vote, Pokemon did even worse.
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AxemRedRanger posted...

Janus5k posted...

AxemRedRanger posted...

Magus > Vincent let's do this

time to buy out the picsmiths

Zen owes me a match pic so I've got that covered!

i am actually willing to do this if you want

i have used my powers for evil before and i'll do it again. i made a promise. a metal promise.

(also it won't be my name on it so I won't feel bad)
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AxemRedRanger posted...

Magus > Vincent let's do this

If Vincent somehow manages to lose to Magus we will all be laughing our heads off at him for eternity.

Man, it's been so long since he had reliable match results that it almost feels like the 2002 contest all over again.

What I like the LEAST about the contest is the fact that registered voters count twice. That's not nearly enough. Making them equal to five votes, though... THAT would make a difference.

What I like MOST about the contest is the double-elimination part of the bracket. That is really awesome!
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Haste_2 posted...

AxemRedRanger posted...

Magus > Vincent let's do this

If Vincent somehow manages to lose to Magus we will all be laughing our heads off at him for eternity.

Man, it's been so long since he had reliable match results that it almost feels like the 2002 contest all over again.

What I like the LEAST about the contest is the fact that registered voters count twice. That's not nearly enough. Making them equal to five votes, though... THAT would make a difference.

What I like MOST about the contest is the double-elimination part of the bracket. That is really awesome!

I really love that whole fourpack, actually. You have got Magus vs. Vincent in round 1 in the battle of mysterious, brooding Square badass fan-favorites, and then they walk into Auron who is yet another mysterious Square badass fan-favorite. But then rounding out the group is...Lucina.
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I'm happy that Shovel Knight vs Captain Toad is a thing. That's a high-quality battle of the boys right there.
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LusterSoldier posted...

If anyone remembers the registered user voting stats that Allen provided in the 2015 contest, we've seen that registered users prefer Nintendo over non-Nintendo stuff.

And in 2013, Allen provided a list of matches that would have flipped the other way if the contest was limited to just registered users and it shows that registered users also have a bigger preference for joke characters when compared to anonymous users. It also reconfirms the registered user preference for Nintendo over non-Nintendo in close matches.

A little additional note is that registered voters seem to favor non-Pokemon Nintendo characters over Pokemon Nintendo characters, judging from how Zelda beat Charizard from the registered voters group.

Hmmm... I wish registered voters were multiplied by three or four to help fight against rallies, but would it be worth skewing non-rallied match results in exchange? (I suppose not)
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Xuxon posted...

so i noticed Rosalina made it in despite not being an auto-fill option. was there anyone else?

Hat kid!
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Might be worth posting this excerpt of one of Allen's posts at the end of the last character contest that was archived on the wiki. It could clue us in to who may end up doing better now that registered users have more voting power.

4) Registered users only

If, hypothetically, we were to restrict the contest voting to registered GameFAQs users (which we can't do in the middle of the contest, and which we couldn't get a budget or justify the hours for an entire contest), then we'd have a lot fewer votes (registered users only account for around 1/3 of the total), and a lot of different results:

5149: Jak over Draven
5171: Falcon over Alucard
5220: ?-Block over Rikku
5227: Mega Man X over Draven
5232: Luigi over Big Boss
5246: Mario over Vivi
5247: Missingno over Squall
5251: Zelda over Charizard
5253: Link over Draven
5255: Kirby over Sephiroth
5261: Charizard over Mega Man

It's not all about Draven. Non-registered users impact quite a few battles, and would leave us with completely different results.
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paulg235 posted...

Might be worth posting this excerpt of one of Allen's posts at the end of the last character contest that was archived on the wiki. It could clue us in to who may end up doing better now that registered users have more voting power.

4) Registered users only

If, hypothetically, we were to restrict the contest voting to registered GameFAQs users (which we can't do in the middle of the contest, and which we couldn't get a budget or justify the hours for an entire contest), then we'd have a lot fewer votes (registered users only account for around 1/3 of the total), and a lot of different results:

5149: Jak over Draven
5171: Falcon over Alucard
5220: ?-Block over Rikku
5227: Mega Man X over Draven
5232: Luigi over Big Boss
5246: Mario over Vivi
5247: Missingno over Squall
5251: Zelda over Charizard
5253: Link over Draven
5255: Kirby over Sephiroth
5261: Charizard over Mega Man

It's not all about Draven. Non-registered users impact quite a few battles, and would leave us with completely different results.

So basically take Nintendo over everything.
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swirIdude posted...

Xuxon posted...

so i noticed Rosalina made it in despite not being an auto-fill option. was there anyone else?

Hat kid!

Quiet too
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It's cool that Quiet made it in. Meryl deserves a run too I think, also Otacon. I like a high MGS ratio in my brackets.
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Haste_2 posted...

A little additional note is that registered voters seem to favor non-Pokemon Nintendo characters over Pokemon Nintendo characters, judging from how Zelda beat Charizard from the registered voters group.

Hmmm... I wish registered voters were multiplied by three or four to help fight against rallies, but would it be worth skewing non-rallied match results in exchange? (I suppose not)

Pokemon is somewhat of a black sheep in the world of Nintendo, as Pokemon suffers very little impact from Nintendo LFF/SFF to nearly the same level as non-Pokemon Nintendo. The one exception would be a match that features 2 or more Pokemon characters, where LFF/SFF can come into play. While Nintendo fans will play most of the games that Nintendo puts out, being a Nintendo fan does not necessarily mean that you are a Pokemon fan as well. Modern Pokemon does not have anywhere near the playrate of the Gen 1/2 games, and a lot of people quit Pokemon after Gen 1 or Gen 2. I don't think any of the Pokemon games after Gen 3 would have a playrate above 50%.

Increasing the amount of power that registered voters have would absolutely screw with character strengths in the X-Stats, so any adjustment would only be possible if we have access to the actual results without the registered user bonus applied to the votes.
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The shift won't be that drastic. Let's says registered voters supported Character A at 60% while unregistered voters were evenly split at 50-50. The old result would have been A winning with 53.33% while the new result is A winning with 55%. Essentially every 10 percentage point gap between registered and unregistered votes is a roughly 1.66 percentage point change in result.

This only applies if there isn't a major rally. In the case of a major rally, the rallied entry wins. The registered voter bonus isn't big enough to stop a major rally.
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