Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 198: The Final Countdown

(+) Yeah! (+)

30 hours until the final vote

4 hours until we pretty much know if Kavanaugh will be confirmed or not (via Susan Collins's press conference)

I give it a 50/50 chance Collins announces she votes yes (Manchin will vote however she votes)
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Contain your topic with a politics tag please
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However...

@elainaplott
2m2 minutes ago
More
As to whether Manchin would switch his vote on the floor, a source close to him says, "He's never done that before, because he wouldn't want to have the John Kerry problem."

Intriguing
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I was gonna go with Randy Cloture

Since its certainly getting you aroused
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Very thankful that Murkowski voted no.

Very disappointed in Manchin for voting yes (and, although its possible hell change his mind on reflecting upon the fact that his vote could be decisive, Manchin claims hell vote the same way on confirmation as cloture: https://twitter.com/glennkesslerwp/status/1048224415991914496?s=21 )
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i hope everyone can find this topic. don't half the regulars have sephy on ignore?

speaking of sephy, imagine celebrating something that literally has 0% impact on your life.
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Jakyl25 posted...

I was gonna go with Randy Cloture

Since its certainly getting you aroused

I literally feel like I have IBS over this.

I do not like that Collins is holding a press conference. Seems utterly pointless if she intends on voting yes. I do not like that Joe Manchin could be the deciding vote if Collins is a no. I don't trust him to fuck over his party that hard.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Very thankful that Murkowski voted no.

Very disappointed in Manchin for voting yes (and, although its possible hell change his mind on reflecting upon the fact that his vote could be decisive, Manchin claims hell vote the same way on confirmation as cloture: https://twitter.com/glennkesslerwp/status/1048224415991914496?s=21 )

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/1048226671747366913
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Also that Soros is funding the protests.

russia today published an article about this so it's true
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ftr:

Predix: 50-50 tie, Pence breaks it to confirm.

Manchin, Murkowski - No
Collins, Flake - Yes

Outside chance that Manchin votes yes if Collins does. He will absolutely not be the 50th Yes. I think he would jump to be the 52nd Yes. However, Kavanaugh's ceiling for confirm votes is 51 and I'm not sure if Manchin wants to be the 51st Yes. I'm leaning no and hope he finds even a fraction of the courage Heitkamp showed, but I can't categorically rule out that he hops on if there's already 50 Yes votes.

Only surprising thing for me about the cloture vote was Murkowski voting against it. Like damn, I said all along she was a no vote on the final vote but I thought she'd vote for cloture, but apparently she's a turbo no vote.
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Someone else mind making a real topic? A large portion of users won't see this.
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xp1337 posted...

Outside chance that Manchin votes yes if Collins does. He will absolutely not be the 50th Yes. I think he would jump to be the 52nd Yes. However, Kavanaugh's ceiling for confirm votes is 51 and I'm not sure if Manchin wants to be the 51st Yes. I'm leaning no and hope he finds even a fraction of the courage Heitkamp showed, but I can't categorically rule out that he hops on if there's already 50 Yes votes.

I think there is zero chance he votes no if Collins is a yes. It would be too damaging to him politically, and ultimately a "no" wouldn't matter.

If she's a no, I think he likely switches to a no as well, but there's an outside chance he doesn't.
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"too damaging"

He can survive a no vote. Will it make his re-election a bit harder? Yes. But he's up by more than enough that it's not going to flip the race.

Again, he might tag along if it makes him the 51st yes but I'd be extremely disappointed in him.
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Passes 51-49.

Probably be the same tomorrow also.
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It's worth noting that Collins has met with Kavanaugh extensively and has expressed her belief that he will not overturn Roe. They have a more personal relationship than Kav had with Murkowski.

I think it's still 50/50 though.
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xp1337 posted...

"too damaging"

He can survive a no vote. Will it make his re-election a bit harder? Yes. But he's up by more than enough that it's not going to flip the race.

Again, he might tag along if it makes him the 51st yes but I'd be extremely disappointed in him.

Do you really think he wants to spend the next month sweating out an election though? He could make this easy on himself.
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Hence why I said I hope he finds a fraction of the courage Heitkamp has. Voting to be the 51st Yes would be the easy move for him politically. I don't begrudge him for voting for Gorsuch but this is a totally different situation and he should be aware of it.
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xp1337 posted...

Hence why I said I hope he finds a fraction of the courage Heitkamp has. Voting to be the 51st Yes would be the easy move for him politically. I don't begrudge him for voting for Gorsuch but this is a totally different situation and he should be aware of it.

Manchin doesn't care how you view him. He cares how West Virginia voters in an election year view him.
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The fact that he has never switched on a cloture vote has me mildly optimistic that he'll vote to confirm--irrespective of Susan Collins. Manchin is anything but a political hack, which is how he's survived as a Dem in WV for all these years.
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The other consideration with Manchin is that if Collins is a no, then he has the power to either confirm or reject Kavanaugh. If he was the 49th no or the 51st yes, people won't necessarily care as much. But the 50th and final no will be a dark cloud over him through election day. I think he'd lose.
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It probably hurts him either way (and yes, more so if hes decisive).

If hes decisive and votes yes I suspect thats worse for him than decisive and no.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

It probably hurts him either way (and yes, more so if hes decisive).

If hes decisive and votes yes I suspect thats worse for him than decisive and no.

No way. WV Dems aren't going to stay home in large enough numbers to counterbalance those who would now vote for him due to Kavanaugh.
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