Current Events > Crewed Soyuz launch fails, crew survives, fate of ISS uncertain

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https://www.space.com/42097-soyuz-rocket-launch-failure-expedition-57-crew.html

A Russian Soyuz rocket carrying a new U.S.-Russian crew to the International Space Station failed during its ascent Thursday (Oct. 11), sending its crew capsule falling back toward Earth in a ballistic re-entry, NASA officials said.
A search-and-rescue team has reached the landing site, both crewmembers are in good condition and have left the Soyuz capsule as of 6:10 a.m. EDT, NASA spokesperson Brandi Dean said during live television commentary.

The Soyuz rocket and its Soyuz MS-10 space capsule lifted off from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan at about 4:47 a.m. EDT (0847 GMT) with NASA astronaut Nick Hague and cosmonaut Aleksey Ovchinin aboard. The pair were due to join the three-person Expedition 57 crew already aboard the International Space Station. But something went wrong minutes after liftoff, sending the Soyuz capsule into a ballistic re-entry, NASA officials said.

"Confirming again that the today's Soyuz MS10 launch did go into a ballistic re-entry mode a little bit after its launch around 3:47 a.m Central Time (4:47 a.m. EDT/0847 GMT)," Dean said during live television commentary. "That means the crew will not be going to the International Space Station today. Instead they'll be taking a sharp landing, coming back to Earth." NASA is providing live commentary on NASA TV, which you can watch here.

The three astronauts currently on board the space station have been informed of the failed launch and their schedule for the day is being reshuffled, since they'll no longer be able to greet the incoming duo. Mission control told current station commander Alexander Gerst of the European Space Agency that during landing, "the boys" experienced forces of about 6.7 G in a call that NASA later broadcast on the live commentary.

The pair landed about 20 kilometers (12 miles) east of Dzhezkazgan, Kazakhstan. "Search and rescue crews are always pre-staged in the event something like this does happen," Dean added. Helicopters have already dispatched to look for the Soyuz space capsule, she said.

The implications here are awful but all signs point to the ISS becoming empty for the first time in 17 years at some point in the near future. The crew on the ISS may not even have a viable lifeboat as the current docked Soyuz was damaged/sabotaged on earth with a drill hole that caused the recent pressure leak. Even if they want to use it, they can't wait past the rapidly closing 200-day lifespan of the capsule.

There won't be another Soyuz launch for months while this is investigated. Those astronauts are stranded unless Russia wants to rush an uncrewed launch or the US wants to do something incredible and reconfigure the uncrewed SpaceX DM-1 mission in January or the crewed DM-2 mission in June as a lifeboat mission.

This incident will kill Soyuz and a good chunk of the Russian space program. The US isn't buying seats past 2019 and this may well be the final purchase. Between the recent Proton cargo and Soyuz cargo failures as well as the Soyuz module sabotage, Russia really has nothing going for them other than ancient designs and new hardware that is struggling to get past planning.
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ESA or China have no rockets capable of getting there?

Rip science at least we have a president who cares about... oh wait
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spudger posted...

Rip science at least we have a president who cares about... oh wait

The president advocated doubling down on space, and everyone mocked him for it.

Doubling down doesn't get Orion and SLS done any faster. It keeps slipping and money will only do so much.
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Questionmarktarius posted...

spudger posted...

Rip science at least we have a president who cares about... oh wait

The president advocated doubling down on space, and everyone mocked him for it.

He advocated a nonsensical military branch. He did not advocate funding for scientists.
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Tyranthraxus posted...

Questionmarktarius posted...

spudger posted...

Rip science at least we have a president who cares about... oh wait

The president advocated doubling down on space, and everyone mocked him for it.

He advocated a nonsensical military branch. He did not advocate funding for scientists.

I hate to take the side of Trump and @Questionmarktarius, but if Trump did get his fuckin monumentally stupid Space Force One dream, don't you think that would imply researching new spacecraft? Current space vehicle technology isn't exactly, you know, warfare-ready.
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Minute posted...

Tyranthraxus posted...

Questionmarktarius posted...

spudger posted...

Rip science at least we have a president who cares about... oh wait

The president advocated doubling down on space, and everyone mocked him for it.

He advocated a nonsensical military branch. He did not advocate funding for scientists.

I hate to take the side of Trump and @Questionmarktarius, but if Trump did get his fuckin monumentally stupid Space Force One dream, don't you think that would imply researching new spacecraft? Current space vehicle technology isn't exactly, you know, warfare-ready.

I mean his monumentally stupid space force dream is so far removed from reality it's barely worth considering unless you're also going to consider shit like the Death Star. You're essentially asking here "If we have people in space whose job is to help with problems, wouldn't that help with people in space that have problems?"

The issue is you have two problems now.

1. We want a Space Force
2. ISS is having some trouble

1 is a problem that we literally created for ourselves and 2 is a problem that wouldn't exist if we instead invested more in making sure that ISS and the shuttles that go to and from were less prone to errors. Suggesting that we solve problem 2 by creating a new problem--problem 1--and then solving that, and using problem 1's solution to also solve problem 2 is not only ridiculous, it's strictly a huge waste of resources spent on a problem that didn't exist until we created it.
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Space Force is 2030s, if ever. We need vehicles now and the private sector is lapping NASA, ESA, JAXA, Roscosmos, etc.

Countries keep talking about next-gen vehicles that are still only on paper when stuff like BFR is already being tooled and built.

SpaceX is ready to step up and they may be our only hope for the next year or two as other companies catch up.
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Questionmarktarius posted...

spudger posted...

Rip science at least we have a president who cares about... oh wait

The president advocated doubling down on space, and everyone mocked him for it.

A space force, genius. He wanted to weaponize space
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He probably doesn't know that kill vehicles and ASATs already exist. No, he wants a full-blown Polyus or rods-from-god. I wouldn't be surprised if Zuma was supposed to be one such vehicle.
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Starks posted...

Doubling down doesn't get Orion and SLS done any faster. It keeps slipping and money will only do so much.

it'll die under the next dem president, who will shift back to research and away from humans on mars initiatives.

the ISS is probably totally screwed now, just based on the soyuz failure, because onboard operation requires human maintenance

it's honestly been kind of a screwed project for a while, though.

Starks posted...

He probably doesn't know that kill vehicles and ASATs already exist. No, he wants a full-blown Polyus or rods-from-god. I wouldn't be surprised if Zuma was supposed to be one such vehicle.

mostly, conservatives want ABM technologies mounted on satellites. admittedly, existing long range ABM tech blows. short/midrange is very good. but the tech for what they are looking for is quite far out.
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There are still people on ISS. Possibly stranded though with their only lifeboat in shitty shape.
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Starks posted...

There are still people on ISS. Possibly stranded though with their only lifeboat in shitty shape.

Yeah, I expect most efforts going forward will be to get them out, not to get new people up there. They'll maintain it until they're rescued, and then it is likely to be abandoned for a period long enough to render it unusuable thereafter. Slow death.
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It'll probably delay the Nauka module for the 10th time
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